Peter Franklin: Is Reform UK threatening the Conservative Party – or protecting it? | Conservative Home

Peter Franklin is an Associate Editor of UnHerd.

The Rochdale by-election was a disaster for all four main parties. We needn’t dwell on the debacle of Labour’s campaign. The fact that they finished fourth behind George Galloway, a local independent and the Tory candidate says it all.

But let’s not kid ourselves this wasn’t an awful result for the Conservative Party. From the 31 per cent of the vote in 2019, we held on to just 12 per cent of the electorate. Still, at least we didn’t come fifth like the Liberal Democrats, who used to get MPs elected here.

So there it is: an all round humiliation for the political establishment. But, hang on, didn’t I mention four main parties?

Opinion polls now regularly show Reform UK either level-pegging with, or ahead of, the Lib Dems. Indeed, the latest YouGov had Reform on a record 14 per cent vote share. So if we’re giving the yellows main-party status, then the same spirit of generosity should be extended to Reform.

And yet in Rochdale – despite confident assertions that they were in a two-horse race with Galloway – they limped in sixth.

They can hardly claim that this was because they were squeezed out by the establishment parties, or because the mainstream media ignored them. After all, no one was as under-rated as the independent candidate David Tully, and yet he finished second with more votes than the Labour and Conservative candidates put together.

Certainly, the police should investigate claims of intimidation on the campaign trail. Furthermore, in respect to postal votes we need to see a full breakdown of the numbers.

Yet whatever went on, it doesn’t explain why those voters who didn’t want Galloway or the Westminster parties turned to Mr Tully and not Reform.

This isn’t just a Rochdale issue. It should be obvious by now that voters in Red Wall constituencies across the North and Midlands are desperate for an alternative to the status quo. Reform UK should be in pole position to provide it.

But they’re failing to hit the spot. If you compare Reform’s record to that of it predecessor party, UKIP, the problem becomes clear. From 2010 to 2015 (UKIP’s heyday) there were 19 by-elections (excluding two in Northern Ireland). Across those contests, the UKIP vote share exceeded ten per cent eleven times, 20 per cent seven times and 30 per cent three times.

Now look at the by-elections since Reform UK was created in 2018 (initially under the name of the Brexit Party). Its vote share has exceeded ten per cent just twice and 20 per cent never.

Admittedly, Britain’s departure from the European Union did come as a massive blow; ironically, the European Parliament was the party’s natural habitat.

Still, when one door closes another opens. The collapse in support for the Conservative Party has certainly opened-up a huge space on the right of British politics. There have never been so many ex-Tory voters up for grabs.

But Reform, while making some progress, has fallen short. Even if their 14 per cent in the latest YouGov poll reflects reality (Ipsos Mori puts them at eight per cent), that’s no higher than the UKIP vote share in the 2015 general election – and they got that when the Conservatives were on 37 per cent, not 20 per cent. It may seem a small thing compared to the Tory meltdown, but Reform are underperforming.

So, what’s the explanation? Well, let me answer that with another question: where is Nigel Farage?

He was supposed to be returning from his adventures on I’m A Celebrity to assume the leadership of Reform UK. But months later, it’s yet to happen. Perhaps he and Reform are awaiting the moment of maximum impact.

However, time is running out. Rumours of an imminent generational election, though perhaps exaggerated, are not implausible. All the parties should at least be prepared for a May 2 polling day, and a campaign starting roughly four weeks from now.

So, again, I ask: where’s Nigel? In his continued absence, Richard Tice is filling in as leader, but that’s suboptimal. Tice isn’t terrible, but even compared to the lacklustre Conservative, Labour, and Lib Dem leaders, he lacks oomph.

He isn’t even the best leader of the challenger parties. George Galloway has more charisma; William Clouston of the SDP is wiser by far; and Lawrence Fox of Reclaim is at least entertaining. Reform desperately needs star quality – and only Farage can supply it.

The leadership vacuum isn’t Reform’s only problem. There’s also the gap between what the party stands for and the natural inclinations of most Leave voters. I’ve explored this in greater detail before: while the leaders of British populism have libertarian instincts, the Leave electorate is remarkably authoritarian.

During the pandemic, Tice, Fox and others tried to rally the public against the excesses of lockdown. This fell flat on its face, because, if anything, most people (including Leavers) wanted even tougher restrictions. For all the flowery talk of ancient English liberties, most of our fellow citizens put security first.

There is, of course, an overlap between the interests of Reform UK and those of its potential supporters. But the party has done a poor job of focusing on this common ground. The essential context here is the catastrophic failure of the last three prime ministers to deliver on the offer that won the 2019 general election.

Yes, Brexit got done, but the other key components of the winning formula – controlling our borders and levelling-up the country – have been betrayed.

This is an open goal for Reform UK, but they’ve barely bothered to take the shot. The focus on immigration should have been relentless, but just look at the party’s homepage. It’s a heap of soft libertarianism with a garnish of anti-wokery. Immigration gets a single mention.

As for anything resembling a levelling-up programme or an industrial strategy, we just get a load of green-bashing. Blaming Net Zero for this country’s problems has become to the populist right what Brexit is to the remainiac Left. It also forgets that cleaning-up the environment and protecting nature are nearly as popular with Red Wall electorates as they are elsewhere in the country.

So am I claiming that Reform UK doesn’t matter? Absolutely not. Any party with about ten per cent of the vote matters, even if First Past the Post denies them seats. A glance at long-term poll trends suggests that, since the second-half of last year, it is Reform, not Labour or the Lib Dem,  who are responsible for the decline in the Conservative vote.

There’s always the possibility that Tice and Farage might do what they need to do to storm the Red Wall. But even if they stay stuck in their rut, they will still exert an influence on the British party system.

As the direct inheritor of the Brexit Party and spiritual successor to UKIP, Reform UK is the first port of call for the populist protest vote. The leadership may lack the vision and courage to move beyond this strategic position, but they make it very hard for a hungrier, savvier party to move into it.

As used to be the case with the Liberal Democrats, and the Liberals before them, Reform UK is the bed-blocker party. Along with the electoral system, it is an impediment to the raging populism that has disrupted politics elsewhere in Europe.

I don’t suppose the strategists of Downing Street have ever stopped to thank Farage and co. However, that’s only because neither the Sunakites nor the Trussites nor the Borisites understand the full extent of their errors.

Between them they’ve reduced the Conservative Party to a state in which it is acutely vulnerable to replacement by a rival party of the right. That this hasn’t happened (yet) is in no small part due to the influence – and limitations – of Reform UK.