Game-breaking trade bait, bridge-deal candidates, and future superstars who need to be locked up ASAP.
The 2023 class of restricted free agents offers a smorgasbord of situations.
And while several potential ’23 RFAs avoided the drama and uncertainty by signing in advance of expiry (Mathew Barzal, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Roope Hintz, Cole Caufield, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Dylan Cozens, Matt Boldy and Stuart Skinner among them), plenty of intriguing young talents remain unsigned into July.
As these RFAs look to bank off their platform seasons and owners wrestle with slow-to-rise salary cap, tense negotiations and arbitration cases are still on deck.
The situations in Ottawa, New York, and Anaheim are particularly interesting.
Qualifying offers have been issued, Group 2 RFAs are now free to sign offer sheets and arbitration cases have been filed.
Hearings will be held from July 20 to Aug. 4.
Here is where things stand with the top 12 RFAs of 2023, following the frenzy of early July.
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Age: 26
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $6.4 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the team filed
Bargaining chips: World junior and world championship medallist. 2022 All-Star Game participant. Two-time 40-goal, 75-point scorer. Ottawa already invested 2022’s seventh- and 39th-overall picks to acquire the player.
The latest: The Summer of Pierre gradually devolved into a Winter of Despair.
Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion spent a haul at the draft to acquire game-breaking scorer DeBrincat only to see the sniper’s shooting percentage dip.
Unlike Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar in Calgary, DeBrincat didn’t jump at the opportunity to chat extension following his 2022 blockbuster trade to Canada.
DeBrincat’s steep qualifying offer ($9 million) complicates matters.
Dorion has enough cap room to extend DeBrincat and certainly doesn’t want this marriage to end as a one-year rental to nowhere.
But the player holds all the leverage here, doesn’t wish to re-sign and now a trade feels imminent.
Dallas, Detroit, Long Island and Nashville are among the goal-hungry clubs said to have interest in acquiring the Michigan native.
The Senators elected to file for arbitration. One way or another, DeBrincat will have a contract somewhere.
The player’s looming arbitration creates an incentive to strike a trade with a team willing to extend before a forced one-year deal with Ottawa.
Failing a trade to Dorion’s liking, he can sign DeBrincat for one more year at a shade under $9 million and walk him to UFA or revisit the file at the 2024 trade deadline.
“As far as I have been advised, there has been no agreement of any kind on an actual trade involving Alex, and I would require that before entering into an actual negotiation,” DeBrincat’s agent, Jeff Jackson, wrote to Ian Mendes of The Athletic on July 3. “We are waiting patiently for that to happen.”
Jackson bristles at the notion he and DeBrincat are making a trade out of town difficult.
“Agents and players don’t make trades … that’s the GM’s job,” wrote Jackson.
Serious stalemate.
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2. Vince Dunn
Age: 26
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $4 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2019 Stanley Cup champion. Superb puck-mover. Improving defensively. Exploded for 64 points from the back end. Skates nearly 24 minutes per night. Power-play facilitator.
The latest: Seattle’s premier offensive defenceman has played a significant role in the NHL’s newest franchise rapid ascent to a legit playoff squad.
A healthy Dunn found his top-four niche and should finally secure the long-term contract that eluded him in St. Louis.
“Dunner’s just playing with confidence, and he’s doing a lot of the little things,” coach Dave Hakstol said. “When you look at the way he’s getting us out of the zone, he’s defending well and he’s using his feet, he’s playing fast on our exits. He’s doing a really good job there, and that’s a credit to him.”
Dunn and GM Ron Francis held brief discussions midseason on an extension but, as Jeff Marek reported in a January edition of 32 Thoughts, opted to delay serious negotiations until June.
Jamie Oleksiak is Seattle’s highest-paid D-man at $4.6 million. Adam Larsson makes $4 million.
Remember: Francis chose Dunn over game-breaker Vladimir Tarasenko in the expansion draft.
It’s time for Dunn to become the highest-paid defenceman in Seattle.
Francis addressed the possibility of Dunn re-signing following the Kraken’s second-round defeat: “We’re hopeful, yeah…. Usually if you get a deal where the team is not happy and the player is not happy, that’s probably a fair deal. So, we’ll see if we can strive to get to that point.”
Dunn expressed to reporters his desire to re-sign and remain in Seattle.
“Ever since I put the Seattle Kraken jersey on, it’s been really special for me,” Dunn said after the team’s elimination. “They’ve given me tremendous opportunity in this organization, and I want nothing but to continue to wear that jersey for many years to come.”
With Carson Soucy gone, Seattle would be wise to take care of the Dunn file.
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3. Troy Terry
Age: 25
Position: Centre / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $1.45 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2017 world junior gold medallist. 2018 Olympian for Team USA. Erupted for 37 goals and 67 points in 2021-22. Anaheim’s 2022 and 2023 All-Star Game representative.
The latest: Rebuilding Anaheim must seek out important pieces of the future while retaining the young talent currently in the stable.
That means finding a path to re-signing Terry, whose solid back-to-back campaigns and arbitration rights give the top-line forward leverage heading into this summer.
Terry is wrapping up a three-year bridge deal at a bargain $1.45-million price tag, and GM Pat Verbeek chose to wait until season’s end to drill down on negotiations.
Terry’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, has been keeping mum on the file, letting his client’s performance do all the talking.
This will be a fascinating situation to watch considering Verbeek has a handful of emerging stars up for raises. Cap space is not an obstacle should an (unlikely) offer sheet arrive.
How Verbeek chooses to allot his dollars will shape the future of this squad.
We asked the GM about his stud RFAs at the draft, and Verbeek replied simply: “I don’t talk about contracts.”
Terry has filed for arbitration.
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Age: 23
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: 2019 world junior silver medallist. First-round pick. 2021 NHL All-Rookie Team. Skates 22-plus minutes a night. Big, rangy (6-foot-4, 216 pounds) D-man with offensive upside. Hung a career-best 43 points in 2022-23.
The latest: New York has already committed significant term and dollars to two defencemen (Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba). Miller should be the third.
The catch here is that GM Chris Drury must also find money to bump the pay of Miller’s fellow RFA, Alexis Lafreniere, after already handing a raise to Filip Chytil.
Without the benefit of arbitration rights, Drury holds the hammer.
The GM can either bridge Miller and save money short-term or bet long-term in hopes that Miller will look like a bargain down the road.
“Everyone knows what this year means for me and my career and my family – everyone I’ve been through this journey with,” Miller told Lohud.com on Jan. 12.
“It’s something you’ve been working for your whole life, and for it to be so close, it’s just that last push before [restricted free agency]. That’s been in the back of my mind – way back of my mind – but I don’t think it’s been anything that I’ve been caught up on or hung up on.”
Rangers scribe Vincent Z. Mercoglioano places “the absolute floor” for Miller’s next contract at three years and $3 million per (the same as Ryan Lindgren signed in 2021) — “but the prevailing belief is Miller will land more money and years.”
Rasmus Dahlin’s $6 million AAV in Buffalo is a reach, so something in the $4 million to $5 million ballpark makes sense.
“Thankfully, I have an agent right now,” Miller told reporters in May. “So let him go to do his job there, and I’ll try to just do my job and focus on hockey, get in the gym again and get back feeling good for next year.”
During free agent frenzy, Drury made sure he stuck to bargains — Blake Wheeler and Jonathan Quick signed for under $1 million — and left money for his young guys.
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Age: 22
Position: Centre / Left wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: 2021 world junior gold mediallist. Top-10 draft pick. Skills for days. NHL23 video game coverboy. One of the NHL’s most marketable young stars. Two-time 20-goal, 60-point man.
The latest: Just like teammate Terry, Zegras played the waiting game as GM Verbeek plans to map out his off-season salary plan.
“Since [Verbeek] came out publicly that he wants to wait until the end of the year, we didn’t talk contract, and I’m good with it,” Brisson, Zegras’s agent, told Pierre LeBrun. “I’m fine either way.”
The growing trend leaguewide is to skip the bridge and go long-term with talented young forwards (Jack Hughes, Nick Suzuki, Matt Boldy, Dylan Cozens, Cole Caufield, et al.).
But in the case of Verbeek — who is new to the office and without much of a signing track record — we don’t yet have a handle on his philosophy when it comes to building.
Thus far, he’s only torn down.
“We’re going to have to see how their years go this year and then obviously we’re going to have to get some new contracts out,” Verbeek said midseason.
“Having flexibility with the cap is vital moving ahead. At the end of the day, there’s only so much money to go around. We have to make sure we can all fit it in.”
Cap space is no issue in Anaheim.
Investing in the right pieces to start constructing a contender is paramount.
If Verbeek does wish to give Zegras term, Boldy and Cozens’ deals (seven years around $7 million per) could be used as comparables.
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Age: 23
Position: Defence
2022-23 salary cap hit: $863,333
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: Top-10 draft pick. Puck-moving right shot. Back-to-back 40-point campaigns. Skates 18:30 per night. Meaningful contributor in Oilers’ 2022 and 2023 playoff runs. No. 1 power-play quarterback.
The latest: Bouchard’s jolt up the Oilers’ depth chart last season had many predicting (us included) he would assume a stranglehold running point on the world’s greatest power-play unit in 2022-23 — and reap the rewards of all those 5-on-4 points that come with playing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Well, Bouchard’s ascendance wasn’t quite so smooth. His regular-season production dipped slightly, and his defensive game suffered bouts of inconsistency.
That said, 23-year-old D-men with Bouchard’s pedigree who can log top-four minutes and blast a point shot aren’t easy to come across. The deadline departure of Tyson Barrie opens more PP minutes for Bouchard to seize, and the arrival of Mattias Ekholm alleviates some D-zone pressure.
This is the kid’s shot to thrive.
“It is a little bit of an opportunity for me,” Bouchard said. “Hopefully I can take it and run with it.”
Save for Bouchard signing an offer sheet, Ken Holland holds the hammer.
Dangling the performance incentive that comes with a bridge contract is the safest route for both parties, considering the Oilers’ tight cap situation in 2023-24 and a leap in the ceiling set for 2024-25.
Given Bouchard’s 17-point postseason, Holland may have seen enough to prefer long-term. The math, however, makes that impossible.
Bouchard’s agents, Dave Gagner and Jeff Jackson, have smartly waited this one out and now must find a doable number on a short-term deal.
“There’s no doubt he’s getting a raise,” Holland said. “We’ll find a solution.”
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Age: 25
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $1.8 million
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: First-round draft pick. Two-time world juniors medallist and one-time world juniors all-star. Gagarin Cup champion. Has posted a winning record in all four NHL seasons. Posted career highs in wins (27) and save percentage (.919) with Toronto.
The latest: Unqualified by Washington as an RFA, Samsonov signed a one-year, prove-it contract in Toronto knowing he’d have a legitimate shot to take the net from the accomplished but injury-prone Matt Murray.
By the all-star break, the Maple Leafs’ younger, cheaper option had done just that.
Samsonov put up better numbers and stayed healthier than his tandem mate, making him Toronto’s current No. 1 and a sure bet for a hard-earned raise this summer.
“He really wanted it to be a one-year kind of show-me, bet-on-yourself type deal, which is not always common with players coming off of this shock of being non-QO’d when he wasn’t expecting it,” ex-Leafs GM Kyle Dubas said. “That was impressive to me.”
Samsonov loves Toronto, no question. But the sides did not discuss an extension in-season.
Word is, he wants term.
“I want to stay here,” a smiling Samsonov said at his end-of-season meeting with the press. “It’s no surprise here, for everybody. We’ll see. This not my work anymore.
“I love my teammates. I like it because everybody who’s been in this locker room. Tough season, just the results. Not what we wanted. But we look in the future with positive.”
New GM Brad Treliving is being coy with his goalie plan at this point, stating that he has “three good goalies” and not buying out Murray in the first window to do so.
Following Treliving’s spending spree in free agency, there is not a ton of cap space for Samsonov. This one is trickling toward arbitration.
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Age: 23
Position: Right wing / Centre
2022-23 salary cap hit: $825,000
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: First-round pick. 2021 world championships gold medallist. One of the NHL’s best value forwards. Delivers impressive production despite moderate ice time. Versatile. Coming off career-best 23-goal, 41-point season.
The latest: No doubt, Vilardi’s breakout offensive run and a career-best shooting percentage (18.9) arrived at a fine time.
The middle-six forward has strong underlying metrics as well.
The slowly groomed Vilardi accepted a dirt-cheap, one-year, bet-on-himself deal last summer and has smartly put himself in line for a significant raise with the Winnipeg Jets as a significant piece of the Pierre-Luc Dubois blockbuster.
“Yeah, more opportunity, obviously. Last year I kind of played more of a bottom six role,” Vilardi told reporters. “I just want to keep growing my game and getting better, and obviously helping the Jets however that is.”
Unlike his first RFA negotiation, Vilardi’s breakout season gives him some leverage.
“Last year, it wasn’t much negotiation. It was just, ‘Here, take this.’ And then, ‘Thank you,’ ” Vilardi said. “This year’s a little different because of my season. But there wasn’t much from LA. Now, just moving forward, the Jets traded for me, so obviously they want me. I want to be there. I’m excited. Hopefully we can get something done here soon. I think for the most part, it’s just my agent. I don’t really know much.”
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Age: 25
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $787,500
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: Young goaltender entering his prime. Minnesota gave up assets last June to acquire him from Ottawa. Posted career-best 22 wins, 2.10 GAA, .931 save percentage in 2022-23. Tidy .921 save percentage in his five playoff games.
The latest: The DeBrincat trade isn’t the only 2022 draft-time deal Dorion might want a mulligan on.
Gustavsson broke out big-time behind the Minnesota’s stingy defence corps in his platform campaign and, with arbitration rights, has positioned himself nicely to be the wild’s undisputed No. 1 of the future.
Beloved veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, 38, still has one more season on his deal at a $3.5-million cap hit, and there is no reason why Gustavsson shouldn’t fill out the tandem in 2023-24 and be given the opportunity to seize the crease.
“I pretty much told my agent to call me when the contract is done,” Gustavsson told The Athletic’s Joe Smith on June 2. “And I’ll see what it is.”
Nothing was close at that time, and an arbitration date is nearing.
Wild GM Bill Guerin met with Gustavsson’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, ahead of the draft and described the conversation as “very positive.”
“I’m always hopeful that we can just get deals done,” Guerin said. “I think they’re motivated, too.”
As excellent as Gustavsson was this season, he appeared in just 39 games and has yet to carry the lion’s share of an NHL workload.
“The good news is we’ve started a dialogue, and everything is really positive,” agent Kurt Overhardt told Smith. “I’m confident, working with Billy and his group, that over time something will get done. I don’t think it’s a matter of getting something done. It’s just a matter of when it’s done.”
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10. Matias Maccelli
Age: 22
Position: Left wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $853,333
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: Exciting young talent on a rebuilding club. Already eating minutes as a rookie. Finished fourth in 2023 Calder Trophy voting and made the All-Rookie Team.
The latest: Maccelli quietly enjoyed a breakout season — 11 goals, 49 points in 64 games — and has turned himself into an under-discussed bright light with the Arizona Coyotes.
“Coming off 20 games last season, and playing the way I played, I probably surprised a lot of people,” Maccelli told NHL.com. “I just came into camp wanting to make the team with no expectation — that was the only goal. I made the team and slowly started to gain more confidence with the things I did on the ice, and I ended up with a really good season.”
Not too shabby for a fourth-round pick who has put himself in line for a nice pay bump.
“He really took a step,” GM Bill Armstrong said. “He showed flashes last year, and now he’s a more consistent player.
“There were small surprises like that that really added to putting a smile on my face at the end of the year.”
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11. Jeremy Swayman
Age: 24
Position: Goaltender
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: Yes — and the player filed
Bargaining chips: 2018 world junior medallist. Drafted and developed homegrown prospect coming into his own. 2023 William Jennings Trophy co-winner. Sparkling 24-6-4 record in 2022-23. Big hugger.
The latest: Bruins GM Don Sweeney let his UFA rentals walk because he’s prioritizing re-signing Swayman and fellow RFA Trent Frederic.
Despite Swayman and the Vezina-winning Linus Ullmark forming the NHL’s most successful tandem this past season, the Boston Bruins’ tight cap picture has fuelled rumours that both goalies can keep this union rolling.
“It’s crossed my mind, yeah. I mean, I’m not going to lie, that’s the business part of it. That’s what we live in,” Ullmark said at the NHL Awards in Nashville, per The Boston Globe.
“When you have two goalies that are so close when it comes to stat-wise, there’s got to be some changes, probably. And hopefully, like I think, for both of us, that we both want to be together, and we want to stay in Boston because that’s where we thrive. And you see the success that we’ve had, and we’ve just got to see. You know, there’s a personal side to it, and there’s a business side to it, and you’ve got to honour it. That’s just how being a professional hockey player is.”
Sweeney is optimistic he can run back his tandem.
“We’re in a terrific spot, if we do decide [to run it back], and that is what our indications are right now, unless something else materialized between now and then,” Sweeney said in Nashville.
“It doesn’t mean I won’t. You guys know me well enough. I have to do my job as to what might present, and the goalie market is an interesting one right now.”
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12. Alexis Lafrenière
Age: 21
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2022-23 salary cap hit: $925,000
Arbitration rights: No
Bargaining chips: First-overall pick. 2020 world junior gold medallist and tournament MVP. Point total increases every season. Plus-10 forward with good size (6-foot-1, 195 pounds). Promising young forward on team loaded with veterans. Should have more points but power-play time has been limited.
The latest: Lafrenière was subjected to midseason trade rumours as the cap-strapped New York Rangers are still awaiting a breakout season from their prized 2020 draft lottery ball. (Vancouver certainly had an eye on the winger.)
Absolutely, the Saint-Eustache, Que., native has yet to live up to his hype, but there is a chicken-and-egg situation going on. His third-line ice time has him averaging 14:25 per night over his first three seasons, and he’s been largely relegated to second power-play usage.
Drury said he was intent on re-signing both Miller and Lafrenière in call with reporters on July 1.
“Real good young player that we think his best days are ahead of him,” Drury said of the forward. “We’re thrilled he’s part of our team and hope he’s a Ranger for a long, long time.”
The Rangers have roughly $6.9 million in space to take care of Lafrenière, Miller, and possibly one more forward.
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More notable pending RFAs: Tanner Jeannot, Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, Morgan Frost, Alex Newhook, Trent Frederic, Shane Pinto, Noah Cates, Ross Colton, Jack McBain, Ryan MacLeod, Ty Dellandrea, Brett Howden, Logan Stanley, Lucas Dostal
Contract info via the excellent CapFriendly.com.
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