NBA Finals Preview: Can the Nuggets keep rolling vs. the Heat?

It took longer than it should’ve, but the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets are finally getting the respect they deserve.

After a dominant run through the Western Conference, only losing three games all playoffs and zero on their home floor, the Nuggets punched their ticket to their first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history.

They were so dominant, that after their sweep of LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, they had to sit and twiddle their thumbs while they waited to find out their Finals opponent.

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Finally, after exactly one week of waiting, Denver found out its opponent for the 2023 NBA Finals when the Miami Heat closed out the Boston Celtics in seven games Monday.

With the way the Nuggets have been playing, however, it might not matter if their opponent was the 1996 Chicago Bulls…

OK, while that statement is most certainly hyperbole at its finest, the Nuggets will be the heavy favourites this NBA Finals, and rightfully so. That’s how well they are playing.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has been an unstoppable force, and Canada’s Jamal Murray is proving he belongs to be mentioned among the NBA’s elite guards.

The two have been a potent duo, and combined with the superb contributions from the Nuggets’ role players, have made the team seem nearly invincible.

The Nuggets need four more wins to bring home the club’s first Larry O’Brien trophy. To get you set, we take a look at the main reason the Nuggets should end up champs, one burning question they face and one series X-factor that could help them win the series.

Finals Schedule:

Game 1: Tuesday, May 16 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Thursday, May 18 @ Denver, 8 p.m. ET
Game 3: Saturday, May 20 @ Miami 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Monday, May 22 @  Miami 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 5: Wednesday, May 24 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 6: Friday, May 26 @ Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 7: Sunday, May 28 @ Denver, 8 p.m. ET

Season Series: Nuggets won 2-0

Denver’s regular season: 53-29 (First in Western Conference)

Road to the NBA Finals:

Round 1: Eliminated Timberwolves 4-1

Round 2: Eliminated Suns 4-2

Conference Finals: Eliminated Lakers 4-0

Why the Nuggets will win: They have the best player in the series

As often is the case in basketball, the NBA Finals champion usually comes down to who has the best player on their roster.

Or at the very least, the player who is playing the best basketball during playoff time.

Last year it was the Golden State Warriors’ Steph Curry. Two years ago, it was Giannis Antetokounmpo with the Bucks. Even in the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 championship over the Warriors, Kawhi Leonard outperformed Curry and Kevin Durant was injured.

You get the picture.

These playoffs, it’s not even really much of a debate about who has been the best player, as Jokic is putting on a historic playoff run.

The 28-year-old centre is averaging an absurd 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists during the playoffs, and has already broken the NBA’s 56-year-old playoff record with eight triple-doubles through the Nuggets’ post-season run.

He’s shooting 47 per cent from three, including a number of impossible fadeaways in the West Finals that only he could make.

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And the scary thing is, even if you take away his scoring, Jokic’s fingerprints would still be all over every game. He may very well be the best passing big man the league has ever seen, expertly running the Nuggets’ half-court offence on a night-by-night basis.

The Nuggets’ 121.0 offensive rating through their playoff run is the fourth-best in NBA playoff history. Even the Lakers who came into the Conference Finals with the best defensive rating in these playoffs were no match for Jokic and the Nuggets.

Did we mention the Nuggets also have Canada’s Murray to carry the offensive load should Jokic have a rare off night? Murray became the first player in NBA history to average at least 30 points per game on 50/40/90 per cent shooting clips in the conference finals.

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Not bad for second fiddle.

The Heat will certainly have their hands full, and if Jokic continues his high level of play, even their best might not be enough.

One burning question for the Nuggets: Are they ready to deal with the genius of Erik Spoelstra?

The list of players the Nuggets have run through this post-season is impressive.

LeBron, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker just to name a few.

And while Jimmy Butler is no slouch, what the Heat bring to the Finals that separates them from all the Nuggets’ previous playoff opponents is a coach who is a proven playoff winner.

Erik Spoelstra has solidified himself as one of, if not the top coach in the league after leading the Heat to another Finals, the sixth of his career.

But this playoff run very well may be his crowning jewel. Spoelstra’s Heat are just the second eight seed in NBA history to make the Finals, joining the New York Knicks in 1998-99.

Time and time again these playoffs he has made subtle adjustments to help the Heat come out on top.

Just take for instance the Heat’s adjustments in their Game 7 win over the Celtics. For the first time all series, they decided to switch the majority of Boston’s pick-and-rolls, swapping defenders on 40-of-58 Celtic pick-and-rolls in Game 7. It was the first time all series they switched more than half per Second Spectrum, and they held the Celtics to just 0.69 points per play en route to the series-clinching win.

Spoelstra will have his work cut out for him trying to slow down Jokic, but expect him to throw multiple different looks at the Nuggets’ big man and do what no team has been able to do this post-season — slow Jokic down.

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Bam Adebayo will most likely draw the tall task of defending Jokic on the majority of possessions, but he’s going to need some help.

In two regular-season matchups, the Heat didn’t send a hard double at Jokic in the post once per Second Spectrum. The Heat also lost both regular season games, so maybe it’s time for a different strategy.

Spoelstra also has been known to throw a zone look at teams from time to time. But what kills a zone more than anything is a skilled big man that can catch the ball in the middle of the zone and make good decisions. Does that sound like anyone to you?

The Nuggets should end up champions. But Spoelstra is not going to make it easy on them. And that’s the beauty of sports.

Nuggets’ X-Factor: Kenatvious Caldwell-Pope

Jokic and Murry have garnered the majority of the headlines for the Nuggets this post-season. After the dynamic duo, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are probably thought of next.

But Nuggets guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is quietly having a huge impact on this Nuggets’ run both on and off the floor.

Not only has upped his game offensively, averaging 11.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per game in the playoffs compared to 10.8 points and 2.7 rebounds in the regular season.

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He is also a plus-perimeter defender that the Nuggets rely on to give opposing guards fits. Gordon will most likely draw the primary assignment on Jimmy Butler, so Caldwell-Pope will likely be tasked with slowing down Heat guards Gabe Vincent or Caleb Martin who have been key contributors to Miami’s Finals run.

Where he might make even more of an impact is off the floor, as he is the only Nuggets player on the roster with NBA Finals experience, winning a championship with the Lakers in 2020.

Even Jokic knows how key the addition of Caldwell-Pope has been to the Nuggets.

“Yes, he won a championship, but the best thing about KCP is he knows exactly what to do and where to be,” Jokic said Saturday. “And he’s doing that in the first game, the 70th game, the playoff game, Finals game, whatever game, he always does what he’s supposed to do and I think that’s the best way to describe him.”

And if he does it for four more games, another ring could very well be in his future.

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