Just a day out from Cyclone Gabrielle’s expected landfall, here’s what we know

Just a day out from landfall, latest forecasts show Cyclone Gabrielle is bringing heavy rain and strong winds with it, so preparation is key, experts say.

Here is what we know.

The impact

For the past couple of days models have shown the cyclone continuing to edge to the east, however there is still a lot to be determined about its trajectory.

MetService expects the cyclone would arrive by Sunday evening.

However, MetService forecasts on Saturday afternoon have brought fresh warnings for the top of the North Island, with the Coromandel Peninsula still likely to be the worst hit.

A red warning, for heavy rain, could mean up to 400mm of rain in the ranges and Tairāwhiti Gisborne.

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At peak rainfall, there could be 10 to 15mm per hour on Sunday, and 20 to 30mm per hour on Monday.

The average wind speeds could be around 90kph, with gusts of around 130-140 kph.

MetService’s head of weather communication, Lisa Murray, said Auckland is still under a severe weather watch, which hasn’t been upgraded due to the uncertainty of the cyclone’s movements.

“During the severe weather from Sunday to Tuesday (depending where in the North Island and top of South Island you are situated), people should hunker down till the severe weather passes, if at all possible.”

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to change to a sub-tropical low on Sunday, she said, which doesn’t mean it weakens – it means the strong wind and heavy rain will spread across a wider area.

What to do

North Islanders have been urged all week to prepare for the bad weather – both by making emergency kits and preparing their households.

On Saturday Auckland deputy mayor Desley Simpson emphasised the importance of preparing and urged households to make plans and get supplies in place.

“Being personally repaired means we can focus on emergency management where they are needed the most,” she said.

Aucklanders who were still disposing of flood-damaged items should no longer be putting them out for collection, as they could become projectiles in the wind.

According to the National Emergency Management Agency people should prepare three days worth of water, food that doesn’t require cooking, supplies for babies and pets and medication, as the basic essentials.

Other items like spare clothes, phone chargers, toiletries and important documents, such as passports, should be packed too if possible.

Emergency items should be stored in a waterproof container so that they don’t get damaged during potential flooding.

While preparing to keep yourselves and your family up to date with supplies is priority, experts are advising people to get their houses ready for the cyclone too.

Civil Defence Northland said clearing debris from external drains and gutters, attaching waterproof plastic around exterior doors and tying down anything that could be broken or moved by the weather were quick ways to make a difference.

Making sure bins, trampolines and outdoor furniture is secured are also important as they could become airborne during high winds.

Sandbags

Community sand bag locations were open in several locations across the North Island, and Aucklanders in particular were asked to bring their own bags, after supplies ran out on Saturday. They could also be bought from hardware stores.

Sandbags can be used to divert floodwaters away from homes, and tips for how to use them properly can be found at Auckland Emergency Management’s website.

Supermarket supplies

Supermarkets are continuing to ask shoppers to buy normally – not overbuying – reiterating it had enough supplies for everyone.

While some stores were operating a staggered entrance into shops, and some social media users reported empty shelves, a Countdown spokesperson said there was enough to go around.

“We know it’s a worrying time for many, and while customers prepare for Cyclone Gabrielle, we do ask that Kiwis please be mindful of others and only buy what they need,” a Countdown spokesperson said.

“We’ve been preparing for the arrival of the cyclone and continue to send hundreds of extra cartons of food and essentials to our stores – today alone there will be over 100,000 bottles water arriving in our North Island supermarkets”

“We are well practised in getting the essentials to customers but we ask that everyone thinks about what they really need for the next few days – this will make sure that there is enough for others. We have plenty of stock, but our team and supply partners need time to get it through our supply chain and onto shelves”

Evacuation centres

People are reminded to have a bag ready to go. Auckland Emergency Management currently has one Civil Defence Centre open at 27 Corban Avenue, Henderson.

There are a dozen Civil Defence Centres equipped to provide beds, food and essential support services across the city that will be “opened if they are needed” according to the AEM website, as well as a further dozen shelters that can provide blankets and hot drinks but “aren’t equipped for extended stays.”

If bringing pets, Auckland Emergency Management urges people to bring cats in cages, and to leash – and if possible muzzle – dogs, which it says may need to be kept in cars.

Details about shelters in the Coromandel and Waikato areas are to be advised.

The official word

Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty said people need to “sit up and take notice” of the approaching cyclone.

“We’re not just talking about heavy rainfall, we’re talking about gale force winds as well. The lack of certainty around its trajectory means that the net could be quite wide. It could hit west, and it could hit east, and it could go right down the guts.”

Twenty-one evacuation centres will open across Auckland, as Auckland Council works to be more prepared than the flooding in January.

Northland Civil Defence Controller Graeme MacDonald said with the forecast heavy rain coming on top of recent heavy rain, streams and rivers may rise rapidly and cause disruption in flood-prone areas.

“Surface flooding, slips and flood water are likely to close roads and disrupt travel with flooding in low-lying areas possible.“