There have always been (at least) two levels on which Rishi Sunak’s new deal for dealing with the Northern Ireland Protocol can be assessed.
One is as a bilateral agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This is correct as a matter of strict constitutional law, which is why the Prime Minister needs only votes in Parliament, which he has, in order to enact it.
Politically, it would ease relations with Brussels, reduce Sir Keir Starmer’s motivation and scope for unpicking Britain’s post-Brexit arrangements, and perhaps even deliver an economic boost in time for the election.
The other is as a solution to the political situation on the ground in Northern Ireland: lots of people want the Assembly back up and running in time for the quarter-centenary of the Belfast Agreement in April; the current situation has alienated unionists and put huge pressure on the Province’s fragile political settlement.
Here, the Democratic Unionist Party will be crucial. They may only have eight Members of Parliament, but it is they who walked out of the power-sharing Executive and without whose participation it cannot re-convene.
So far, the party has hedged its official position, saying it will take time to study the proposals in detail. (One suspects this also means conduct a lot of polling of what their voters think of it.)
But all eight of its MPs spoke in Monday’s debate following Sunak’s statement to the Commons, and their contributions give us some insight to the debate likely raging behind the scenes.
The official view
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, as leader, struck a cautious note, highlighting that there “remain key issues of concern”. However, the overall tone seems promising for Downing Street:
“Undoubtedly, it is now recognised that the protocol does not work. When others said that there could be no renegotiation and no change, it was our determination that proved what could be achieved. I would like to thank the Prime Minister and his predecessors for their work and engagement to date on this issue.”
A key part of selling the Windsor Framework for the DUP will be taking the credit, as well as (not unfairly) pointing out that their much-criticised intransigence seems to have delivered results that were supposedly not on the table. That’s what Donaldson is doing there.
Meanwhile, Gavin Robinson had this to say:
“I genuinely acknowledge that on both constitutional harm and the democratic deficit, progress has been made. Over the coming weeks and months, as we look to engage with our community and with communities and businesses throughout Northern Ireland to test, probe and tease out the tense aspects of the implementation of this framework agreement, I hope the Prime Minister will recognise that, for us, ratification is important.”
This highlights a strategic issue: the DUP won’t want to cash in Stormont, their biggest bargaining chip, only for the EU to then fail to ratify the Framework.
Gregory Campbell had strong words for the Prime Minister about the latter’s assertion that the Protocol was necessary to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland (“This is the umpteenth time that this mistake has been made by successive prime ministers”).
But he refrained from attacking the contents of the proposals, instead simply reiterating the importance of winning unionist consent:
“Does the Prime Minister agree with what I told him last week: just as years ago, the representatives of nationalism in Northern Ireland needed to be content with governance arrangements in Northern Ireland, equally now, the representatives of Unionism have to be content with governance arrangements going forward?”
The overall tone was tough, but left open the DUP’s room for manoeuvre if they do decide they’re content with the proposed arrangements.
The sceptics
Some of the DUP have always skewed more Eurosceptic than others – there’s a reason that only some of its MPs have a form of associate membership of the European Research Group. Here’s Sammy Wilson:
“May I remind him that, although he talks about 1,700 pages of EU law being removed from Northern Ireland, hundreds of thousands of pages will still remain? Border posts are still being planned, and the Prime Minister has admitted that future EU laws will apply to Northern Ireland”.
And Ian Paisley Jr:
“Prime Minister, that is utterly useless for our agricultural sector. That will actually make it more difficult for our farm businesses. Also, if we move any livestock from County Antrim to Ayrshire and fail to sell them at the marts, we will have to leave them there for at least six months. That has not been addressed. […] Our farmers in Northern Ireland are not amused. It is our single largest trade. Will these issues be fixed, or is this a failed process already?”
And Jim Shannon, intervening outwith an adjournment debate:
“It is crucial that the Windsor framework that he has referred to does not become the Windsor knot for us Unionists in Northern Ireland. Does he understand that any deal must include the cessation of European Court of Justice interference in UK sovereignty – in other words, the real power must lie with Westminster, not Brussels – the cessation of the state aid prohibition, and the cessation of customs protocols within the UK that are determined by Europe, and must respect the seven tests set by the DUP and supported by the majority of Unionists in Northern Ireland?”
And Paul Girvan:
“I am glad that this is called a framework and that it is not an agreement as such. A framework is something that has to be built and added to whereas an agreement is something that is written in stone and cannot be changed, which is what we were told about the so-called protocol deal – those who wanted to change it were told that they could not.”
He also raises the concerns of other MPs about the impact of the arrangements on livestock and the agricultural sector, and critiques the proposed green lanes, on the basis that:
“I enter a country and I always see a border. At a border, there are green and red lanes, and I still have the perception that I am at a border”.
The conciliator
Contrasting with these views was Carla Lockhart, asking a question so friendly it could have come from an ambitious Tory:
“Can the Prime Minister confirm that the Stormont brake not only has the ability to end dynamic alignment with EU law, but gives Unionists or anyone else the opportunity to meaningfully impact whether the legislation applies in Northern Ireland?”
Overall, these look fairly balanced, with four MPs striking an openly sceptical or hostile note versus four reserving their judgement or highlighting aspects of the Framework they can sell to their voters.
But ultimately, the views of the MP caucus won’t decide the issue, not least because their votes are not needed to pass the deal.
Instead, it will likely come down to what the DUP think settling will do for their chances in a Stormont election. Will they be able to take credit for a significant amelioration of the sea border?
Or would they open themselves up to attack from Jim Allister and the TUV, currently waiting in the wings to do to the DUP what the latter did to the Ulster Unionists?
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