Hungarian Grand Prix: Will Mercedes, Aston Martin, Ferrari or McLaren deny Red Bull at the Hungaroring

Red Bull are in a league of their own in Formula 1 2023, winning race after race as their rivals fight just to get within touching distance of a dominant Max Verstappen.

Verstappen has won the last six F1 events, leading 248 consecutive laps from the latter stages of the Miami Grand Prix in May to the middle of the Austrian Grand Prix in July.

Red Bull now have the opportunity at Sunday’s Hungarian Grand Prix to set a new record of 12 consecutive victories after equalling McLaren’s mark of 11 wins on the spin, which has stood since 1988, with the Dutchman’s success at Silverstone. McLaren failed to win only one race that season, something which would be extraordinary if Red Bull can do the same in 2023.

It is a record that shows how dominant the RB19 has been, particularly in the hands of Verstappen, and as Sky Sports’ F1 Martin Brundle alludes to – you have to admire what all the engineers and people behind the scenes at Milton Keynes have created, which was the case with Michael Schumacher at Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes.

F1 has a habit, though, of throwing up some chaos just when you are not expecting it. That is why Mercedes were narrowly denied matching McLaren’s feat themselves in 2014, 2015 and 2016 during their most dominant years.

How did Mercedes miss out on consecutive wins record?

Reliability, incidents or clashes between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg were the main reasons Mercedes did not win every race from 2014 to 2016. On two occasions, Mercedes won 10 races in a row, but never the elusive 11.

Their first non-win came at the 2014 Canadian Grand Prix in June as both Silver Arrows drivers had MGU-K failures. Hamilton retired while Rosberg tried to limp home to victory, only for Daniel Ricciardo to come flying by with three laps to go. Ricciardo went on to win two more races that year in Hungary and Belgium.

In 2015, Sebastian Vettel produced a stunning drive in the heat of Malaysia and again took great wins in Hungary and Singapore as Mercedes were vulnerable on the twistier circuits.

A year later, Verstappen capitalised on the famous Hamilton and Rosberg collision in Barcelona to win on his Red Bull debut, while Hamilton’s engine failure in Malaysia handed victory to Ricciardo later that year.

It was often Red Bull that capitalised on Mercedes’ problems during their dominance, so will there be a role reversal in Budapest to stop Red Bull from making history?

Mercedes cautious about Hungary hopes

The Hungaroring is one of Hamilton’s best tracks as he has won there eight times. He took his first Mercedes victory in 2013 in Budapest and thrives in the flowing middle sector, keeping enough tyre performance for the end of the lap when things slow down and more time can be gained.

Mercedes brought a new front wing to Silverstone but it did not provide too much performance as Hamilton was largely on the podium thanks to the timing of the Safety Car for Kevin Magnussen’s stricken Haas.

George Russell took a shock maiden pole position 12 months ago in Budapest, another surprise moment in the history of the Hungaroring, but Toto Wolff is playing down expectations.

“The order is fluctuating almost every weekend. We need to keep adding performance if we are to close the gap to the front and fight for victories,” said Wolff.

“Several teams have made big gains recently. This has brought some into the fight with us, especially McLaren. It has been impressive and gives us encouragement that we can also continue to find gains. We relish that challenge and will bring our own steps in due course.

“The Hungaroring is a circuit that is quite different in nature to Silverstone. It will be interesting to explore how our latest upgrades perform in the long-radius, slow-speed corners.

“We have good memories from Hungary last year, with George’s first pole position in F1 and a double podium for the team. This race also marks a decade since Lewis’ first win with us, so it’s a circuit full of good memories.

“Hopefully we can have another strong showing this time out. We want to build on the positive momentum from Silverstone and take the fight to our rivals.”

Aston Martin should be back on form

Aston Martin were very quiet at Silverstone and Spielberg as Fernando Alonso failed to finish on the podium in back-to-back races for the first time in 2023.

The team had a big upgrade package in Montreal, where Alonso finished second, but perhaps the track characteristics masked an update that simply did not work. It is not uncommon for an F1 team to bring new parts, only for them to not add performance, so it could be the case here with Aston Martin.

One of the AMR23’s strengths is the change of direction and its ability to ride kerbs, so they should fare better in Budapest.

The track temperature is set to be above 40 degrees Celsius this weekend, which will also help Aston Martin since they go well in the heat as it helps fire up the tyres, while the car is able to maintain good tyre wear.

Prior to Monaco, Alonso was asked by Sky Sports F1 whether he could win a race. He answered “I think so yes” and named “Monaco, Budapest and Singapore” as the three most likely tracks. A lot has happened since then of course but, at the very least, expect Aston Martin to be closer to the front.

“We are realists. We have always been, we have never been dreamers,” said team principal Mike Krack. “So we will look at the track, we will look at our car, how to set it up for that.

“If you look at the characteristic, it should play better into our car than other circuits that we have been to. Qualifying is key, especially in circuits where you struggle more to pass like the one that will come, although it is now a bit easier than it used to be.”

Ferrari form up in the air

It has been over a year since Ferrari last won in F1 and they should have taken victory in Hungary last year had they got their strategy right. Race pace and tyre wear remain a weakness, no matter what Ferrari bring to the car. That is not a simple fix.

The Ferrari operating window is very narrow, which explains a lot of their sudden loss in pace, and they did not seem to enjoy the new Pirelli tyre construction that was introduced at Silverstone.

We should not judge everything on one race of course, but the general sensitiveness of the Ferrari does make you think – will they need a mini reset to understand the new tyres. High tyre pressures were also a factor at the British Grand Prix and Pirelli have allocated more normal tyre pressures this weekend for Hungary.

Do not be surprised to see Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz fighting for pole position on Saturday, only to fall away on Sunday.

McLaren are ‘terrible in slow corners’ claims Norris

What a weekend McLaren had at Silverstone as Lando Norris took second and Oscar Piastri was unfortunate to miss out on the podium in fourth. Their upgrades have definitely paid off and they have more new parts coming to Budapest which is very exciting for the team.

In the high-speed corners, the McLaren was a match for Red Bull, but they were “poor” in the slow-speed turns according to Norris.

“I would say pretty terrible in the slow-speed corners, extremely difficult to drive. I feel if we’re getting excited and I accept that, but we’re going to go to a couple of tracks coming up where I’m sure people are going to be saying ‘what have you done now? Like, how has it got so bad all of a sudden’,” he said.

“So, we’ve improved a lot of things: tyre degradation, there’s always little things you try and do with tyre cooling and blah, blah, blah, but nothing big from that side. It’s just Silverstone allowed us to look after the tyres nicely, keep them in a good condition. Simple as that. So a lot of it is track-specific.

“I don’t want to get too excited. Good things have come from the upgrade but there’s still plenty of things which are a mile away from, say, competing in certain places with a Mercedes and as a whole package competing even with a Red Bull. So a lot more work to be done from both of those areas.”

Although Norris is not expecting the same podium result this Sunday, the new generation F1 cars produce so much downforce that what were slow-speed corners, are now medium or high-speed turns, so McLaren could still be in the hunt.

Red Bull will not have it easy

Without doubt Red Bull are still favourites and a perfectly-executed weekend from Verstappen will see him notch up his seventh consecutive win.

The history of Budapest and the potential of other teams, though, will keep Red Bull on their toes, especially in Qualifying which could be similarly thrilling to Monaco.

Just when you think a sport is becoming too predictable, one moment can make make you stand out of your seat, so do not miss the Hungarian Grand Prix as it is usually never easy for the driver who wins.

Sky Sports F1’s live Hungarian GP schedule

Thursday July 20
2pm: Drivers’ press conference

Friday July 21
8:55am: F3 Practice
10am: F2 Practice
12pm: Hungarian GP Practice One (session starts 12:30pm)
2pm: F3 Qualifying
2:45pm: F2 Qualifying
3:40pm: Hungarian GP Practice Two (session starts 4pm)
5:15pm: The F1 Show

Saturday July 22
8:45am: F3 Sprint
11:15am: Hungarian GP Practice Three (session starts 11:30am)
1:10pm: F2 Sprint
2:15pm: Hungarian GP Qualifying build-up (Sky Showcase)
3pm: HUNGARIAN GP QUALIFYING (Sky Showcase)
5pm: Ted’s Qualifying Notebook

Sunday July 23
7:20am: F3 Feature Race
9am: F2 Feature Race
11am: Porsche Supercup
12:30pm: Grand Prix Sunday – Hungarian GP build-up
1:30pm: F1 Juniors: Hungarian Grand Prix (Sky Sports Mix and Sky Showcase)
2pm: The HUNGARIAN GRAND PRIX
4pm: Chequered Flag: British GP reaction
5pm: Ted’s Notebook

Daniel Ricciardo’s return and first F1 Juniors broadcast headline the Hungarian Grand Prix! Watch all the action live on Sky Sports F1 from July 21-23. Get Sky Sports