Five critical issues shaping Poland’s upcoming election

Poland’s politicians are making big promises, and opposition supporters have flooded the streets – it can mean only one thing: An election is just around the corner. 

The pivotal vote on 15 October will see the incumbent right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) face off against Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition, alongside parties from the left and far right. 

Politicians are fighting tooth and claw, but what exactly have been the main issues – and flashpoints – shaping the election so far? 

1. Security

Even before campaigns got underway, security was one of the most important topics in Polish politics, with the country lying on the borders of Belarus and Ukraine. 

PiS leaders have promised to ramp up military spending and build one of the strongest armies in Europe, emphasising the risk of Russia’s war in Ukraine spiling into its territory.

The populist party is “naturally more sensitive” to this issue because its support base sits in the east and south of Poland on the frontier with Belarus and Ukraine, says Wojciech Przybylski, a political analyst at Visegrad Insight. 

But the opposition attaches the same significance to security concerns, he adds.

Other observers take things further, arguing PiS is deliberately over-exaggerating insecurity to influence the vote. 

“They are mostly trying to play on people’s fears,” explains Filip Pazderski, head of the democracy and civil society programme at the Polish Institute of Public Affairs. “The war is helping the ruling party because of this rally behind the flag effect.”

Part of this threat perception is the idea that Poland is being “invaded by strange others”, he continues, referring to the country’s long-running migration crisis with Belarus. 

“They are using pictures of refugees crossing the Mediterranean Sea or taking clips from riots in France to claim they if Poles vote for the opposition this is what will happen.” 

Anti-migrant and refugee rhetoric has been aired across the political spectrum, with Tusk vowing in a clip posted on social media: “Poles must regain control over this country and its borders”. 

2. The EU (aka: relations with Berlin)

Central to debates in the run-up to elections has been Poland’s ties with the European Union (EU), especially its foremost power Berlin. 

Since taking office in 2015, PiS has veered towards authoritarianism and undermined the rule of law, bringing it into conflict with Brussels. 

Civic Coalition led by Tusk, a former president of the European Council, is firmly pro-European, seeing the EU as the best way of guaranteeing the country’s future security and prosperity. 

He has proposed reversing erosions to the rule of law to release billions in frozen EU funds, a welcome boost for Warsaw’s coffers. 

In contrast, PiS is whipping up anti-German sentiment and striking an isolationist stance, says analyst Przybylski. 

“They are capitalising on the older electorate’s distrust towards Germany… PiS is framing the opposition as agents of Berlin in its supposed big plan to recreate the Second World War in which Germany and Russia attack Poland.” 

“These are ridiculous claims,” he adds. 

Poland’s de facto leader, deputy PM Jarosław Kaczyński, has repeatedly accused Tusk of planning to sell state-owned companies to German investors, calling him a stooge of Berlin. 

3. Ukraine

Issues around Ukraine have played a prominent role in the election campaign.  

As a former satellite state of the Soviet Union, Poland was quick to rally behind Kyiv when Russian tanks steamed across the border in February 2022. 

The country welcomed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees and provided much military and financial support. 

But relations have since soured, with Warsaw saying in September that it would stop sending weapons to Kyiv. 

Poland’s hard-right – growing in popularity – has tried to inflame hostility towards Ukrainian refugees, while Polish farmers have protested against cheap Ukrainian grain imports flooding the country, helping prompt the policy change.  

“PiS is trying to gain additional votes because they have no certainty of achieving a majority like in previous elections,” Przybylski. “They’re trying to play this [refugee] card that is consistent with their isolationism and nationalism.” 

However, supporters of both the main parties are overwhelmingly in favour of helping Ukraine, he continues. 

Refugees were listed as the least important issue out of 12 social problems in a September poll of Polish voters by IBRiS.

“I think the opposition maintains a good line. They see refugees as a challenge and say they know how to handle it. That this issue that can be sorted out, rather than played,” argues Przybylski.

4. Inflation

As in many European countries, worries about sky-high prices of essentials, like food and energy, have been hotly debated.  

“Inflation is very, very important,” says Pazderski. “It used to be even more important, but inflation has got a bit less recently.” 

“The opposition would use it to attack the current ruling majority, claiming that it’s their fault,” he continues.

PiS have blamed price hikes on external events such as the war in Ukraine and the EU’s green policies, attempting to imply the problem is out of their control, according to the expert. 

Rising prices were named the second most important problem facing Poles in the IBRiS’s September survey. 

Last month Poland’s headline inflation rate slowed to 8.2% year-on-year, below analysts’ expectations of 8.5%, according to a flash estimate by Poland’s state statistics agency GUS. 

It is the first time the figure has fallen below 10% since fighting broke out in Ukraine and is the lowest level since late 2021. 

5. Social policies

While perhaps less prominent than others, social issues have come up on the agenda. 

With an ageing population, pensions have been hotly debated, besides policies around “making babies”, such as state support for families with children, notes Przybylski. 

Poland faces a huge democratic challenge with population growth flatlining since the early 2000s, meanwhile, many PiS policies limiting abortion rights have drawn fierce criticism. 

The conservative party has also promised to expand its hugely popular “500+” child benefit programme, introduced in 2016, with Polish families set to receive a 60% increase in payments from next January. 

Przybylski says the Civic Coalition, a catch-all political alliance, has emphasised policies aimed at improving health. Another idea they have floated is offering direct subsidies to grandparents who want to stay at home and take care of infants. 

“But the main message of the opposition is that they will also cut down the negative emotions and energy that drive so much polarisation and hatred,” adds Pazderski.