Explained | A guide to the latest leak of U.S. intel documents

The story so far: Over the past week, the U.S. government has been scrambling to undo the damage after scores of classified military documents and intelligence reports surfaced on social media sites, where the information stayed for around a month.

The security breach, described by the Pentagon as a “very serious” risk to national security, involves documents that seemingly provide details about a range of sensitive issues, includingAmerican and NATO aid to Ukraine amid its war with Russia, and an assessment of Ukrainian defence capabilities, while some papers suggest apparent surveillance of American allies. 

The U.S. Department of Justice has since opened a criminal investigation into the leak. Federal authorities arrested the prime suspect in the case on Thursday.

Who leaked the documents, how, and where?

Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old man employed with the U.S. Air Force National Guard was the first arrest made in the probe. As to how the suspect got access to secretive information, a defence official told The Associated Press that he had a higher level of security clearance because of his role at the facility.

Jack was detailed to an intelligence unit with the Massachusetts Air National Guard as a cyber transport systems specialist, responsible for securing military communications networks.

As per the preliminary probe, the leaks started on social media application Discord, where Jack was active for years.

He reportedly formed a group called Thug Shaker Central in 2020, with 20-30 people, and group conversations ranged from games to guns and memes. As ‘the O.G,’ Jack started sharing classified information as members discussed wars including the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initially, he typed information but later switched to posting photographs of briefing papers and hard copies of slides when he felt he wasn’t being taken seriously. One of the members of the online group told The Washington Post that he wanted to keep them “in the loop.” Another said that Jack often ranted about the U.S. government and spoke about its “overreach”.  

Several classified documents circulated for months on Discord servers, with the first tranche making it to other online platforms around March before they were noticed by The NYT and Pentagon earlier this month.

What is Discord, the platform where files were leaked?

A real-time text, voice and voice application, Discord has been in use since 2015. It describes itself as a forum “where the world talks, hangs out and builds relationships…is used by everyone from local hiking clubs, to art communities, to study group.” After facing teething issues, the app saw a surge of users during the COVID pandemic. About 38% of its web users and nearly half of its Android users are between the ages of 18 and 24, as per the digital intelligence platform Similarweb.

On Discord, a user can build a community of people with similar interests by setting up a chatroom or ‘server’.Most servers are private A person can invite others to join the group which is divided into specific sub-groups like technology, music, or food. These chatrooms are known as ‘channels’ where one can “collaborate, share, and just talk about your day without clogging up a group chat.”

Discord is most popular among video gamers. Most of the 21,000 servers on the platform are dedicated to gaming, as per AP.

This, however, is not the first time that Discord has been in the news for wrong reasons. The app came under scrutiny during the deadly supermarket shooting spree in New York’s Buffalo last year. The 18-year-old accused of the shooting had shared details of his plan in his private Discord server. Around 30 minutes before the attack, he shared invitations to view his private server with this personal diary within a small number of other private servers and direct messages, Discord said in a blog. Following these revelations, the New York State authorities launched an investigation into several social media platforms.

How many secret documents were leaked and what was in them?  

While there is no clarity on the exact number of documents made public, news organisations and experts estimate the number to be in the hundreds. These secret documents were first noticed on social media sites last month. The New York Times was the first to report on the presence of such reports on platforms like Twitter, Telegram and 4chan on April 6.

The leaked documents include classified information from briefing slides related to the Russia-Ukraine war. But the leak appears to be beyond the two countries engaged in a war, NYT reported. “Security analysts who have reviewed the documents on social media sites say the growing trove also includes sensitive briefing material on Canada, China, Israel and South Korea, in addition to the Indo-Pacific military theatre and the Middle East,” the report says. 

A look at key revelations: 

1. Real-time battlefield positions from February and March and the number of battlefield gear lost and newly flowing into Ukraine from its allies.

2. U.S. doubts Ukraine will be able to take back Russian-occupied territory this spring, as per intelligence assessments from February. The document says that there will be “modest territorial gains” for Ukraine due to a lack of infrastructure and manpower. 

3. One document gives an estimate of Russian troops’ deaths in the Ukraine war, which is significantly lower than numbers publicly stated by U.S. officials, which stood at around 1,00,000 soldiers. The document lists 16,000-17,500 Russian casualties and up to 71,000 Ukrainian casualties under a section titled “Total Assessed Losses.” 

4. One of the documents reveals information on Ukraine’s air defence systems. The report reveals that the country is expected to run out of missiles as early as late April or May if there isn’t significant resupply.

5. There are details on the U.S. training and equipment schedules to assist Ukraine and NATO plans for supporting the Ukrainian military.  

6. A document outlines four “wild card” scenarios that could affect the war, NYT reported. These scenarios include the deaths of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, the removal of Russian military leadership and a Ukrainian strike on the Kremlin.

7. A paper said the Mossad, the intelligence service of Israel, could have encouraged protests against PM Benjamin Netanyahu that rocked the country in March. It cited signals intelligence as the source, which raised suspicions that America was spying on its allies.

8. There are details on discussions among senior South Korean officials about U.S. pressure on Seoul to help supply weapons to Ukraine, and its policy of not doing so.

9. Intercepted communication between a pro-Russian hacking group and the Federal Security Service of Russia suggested that the hackers could have breached a Canadian gas pipeline company in February and damaged its infrastructure.

10. American caught Russian intelligence officers boasting that they had convinced the United Arab Emirates “to work together against U.S. and U.K. intelligence agencies.”

What was the source of the secret information?

The ljeaked documents are images of documents and slides based on intel collected by different agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and National Security Agency (NSA), according to Intelligencer. Most were labelled as “secret” and “top secret”, while some with marked with annotations that suggested that they were not to be shared with allies. 

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, however, said the authorities found that at least some of the papers “have been doctored.”

What happens now?

The ongoing scandal has sent shockwaves across the U.S. While officials have refrained from authenticating information in leaked documents, the Pentagon called the online leak a “very serious” risk to national security. After the arrest of the prime suspect, the Pentagon press secretary Brigadier. Gen. Patrick Ryder termed the leak a “deliberate criminal act.” He added that the authorities were reviewing factors related to safeguarding classified materials.

AP also reported that the Pentagon has already taken steps to reduce the number of people who have access to briefings. 

The U.S. administration, meanwhile, is working to stop the flow of classified information onto social media amid concerns that there could be additional leaks. U.S. Department of State spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters that officials “are engaging with allies and partners at high levels over this, including to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and the fidelity of securing our partnerships.”