Europe is set to end the heating season with so much gas that the idea of storing more fuel in Ukraine to avoid a price crash is becoming attractive, despite the security risks of such a move.
The region is heading into March with storage facilities over 62% full — a record for the time of the year — according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. The continent is nearing the end of what has been an exceptionally mild winter, which has weighed on fuel needs and will lead to less injection capacity over the summer months.
“European storage is at risk of hitting tank tops before the beginning of the heating season,” analysts at Energy Aspects Ltd. wrote in a note this week. “As such, European traders must make use of floating and Ukrainian storage. Lower summer prices relative to the winter contract will support the economics of the use of both.”
Floating storage — the practice of keeping liquefied natural gas on vessels for longer before unloading — is typically used when traders anticipate being able to sell it at higher prices later or when regular underground facilities are full.
While front-month contracts rose on Friday, prices continue to hover near €25 per megawatt-hour, a level that many traders see as a floor after declining more than 20% since the start of the year. Contracts for delivery during summer have also fallen in recent weeks as the focus shifts to April, which marks the end of winter for the gas industry.
Ukraine is offering traders outside of the country to book as much as 10 billion cubic meters of its natural gas storage capacity this year, according to state-run oil and gas firm NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy. The volume that can be earmarked for foreign companies comprises about a third of the nation’s total capacity and is on par with last year’s level.
Long one of the key links in gas trade with Europe, Ukraine has more storage capacity than any other country on the continent, west of Russia. Stored fuel almost dropped to zero following Russia’s invasion, but has bounced back since last year, with companies including Shell Plc and DXT Commodities using its facilities, Bloomberg previously reported.
Meanwhile, most of Europe is set to see a continuation of mild weather in early March, helping to keep a lid on energy prices. From the UK to France and Germany, the region’s biggest markets will be warmer than usual during the first two weeks of the month, according to meteorologists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 1.8% to €25.31 a megawatt-hour at 10:04 a.m. in Amsterdam. The UK equivalent contract also rose.
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