Erling Haaland holds the key to Manchester City’s Champions League dreams, says Paul Merson

Manchester City’s dreams of Champions League glory hinge on Erling Haaland being the difference in the games he was signed to win, says Paul Merson.

City travel to the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday night looking to avenge last season’s agonising semi-final exit to 14-time champions Real Madrid and stay on course for a maiden European crown.

Record-breaking summer signing Haaland has scored an incredible 51 goals in all competitions this season, propelling City to within reach of a Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League treble.

Merson believes City’s hopes of progressing to a second Champions League final rest solely on Haaland’s shoulders.

“Haaland was brought in at Manchester City for this very moment,” he told Sky Sports. “Will he be feeling the pressure? I don’t think he does feel pressure.

“He wasn’t brought in to win the league five out of six seasons, he was brought in to do something that Manchester City have never done. He was brought in to be the difference against Real Madrid.

“If you weighed both teams up when they met last season, Karim Benzema was probably the only player that would walk into the Manchester City team. Now, with Haaland at City, that doesn’t happen. That is the gamechanger.

“Haaland was brought in to win the Champions League and I think he will be the difference. I don’t see how the Real Madrid defenders live with him. They are rash at times and like to dive in.

“I cannot see Haaland not scoring over two legs, I’d be amazed if he didn’t. If he doesn’t score, I don’t see how Manchester City progress.

“Haaland has scored 50 goals already this season, but the pressure is on this game, that is the way it works as a centre-forward. The hardest job in the world is scoring goals, that’s why they get the big bucks and there’s not a lot of them around, certainly not putting up his figures.”

First-leg advantage to Madrid?

Merson believes Real Madrid have a slight advantage before a ball has even been kicked after being drawn to play the first leg of their semi-final with Manchester City at home.

“Being away from home in the first leg is such a disadvantage for Manchester City because playing the second leg at home is just not as advantageous as it once was,” he said.

“If City were playing at home first, I would have been shocked if they didn’t progress to the final, but the disadvantage Real Madrid would have previously had is gone now the away-goals rule has been scrapped. With no away goals, the advantage is with the team playing at home first.

“If Real Madrid went and won this game 2-1, which wouldn’t be a shock at the Bernabeu because it’s Real Madrid after all, Manchester City will be up against it at the Etihad. Whereas when the away-goals rule was in force, that result would have been advantageous to Manchester City.

“Back in the day, the away team had the advantage even if they lost 2-1 in the first leg because they would only need to win 1-0 at home to go through. Now they have to win 2-0 to go through.

“This is a big advantage for Real Madrid in this game because they could virtually have been out of the tie with defeat at the Etihad if the fixtures were the other way around.

“I don’t get the rules anymore. UEFA have changed the rules that much they have taken away the away-goals advantage and handed it to the team playing at home. The problem nowadays is that you only need to have a bad 45 minutes in the competition and you’re out.”

A final at the semi-final stage?

Merson believes the winners of Real Madrid and Manchester City’s semi-final will go on and win the Champions League in Istanbul on June 10.

“If Manchester City beat Real Madrid over two legs and then don’t go on to beat either AC Milan or Inter Milan in the final, they will never win the Champions League!” he added.

“Football is a funny game, but you would be shocked if the winners of this tie didn’t go on to lift the trophy.”

Key battle: Walker vs Vinicius Jr

As for where the tie will be won and lost, Merson believes Manchester City can virtually seal progress if they keep Real Madrid dangerman Vinicius Jr under wraps, and that there is only one man for the job.

“If Manchester City can stop Vinicius Jr they will win this tie. For that to be achieved, Kyle Walker has to play,” he said.

“Real Madrid have a much better chance without Walker on the pitch. Last season this tie was turned on its head when he went off.

“Walker has been in and out of the team in recent weeks, but City haven’t come up against a player as good as Vinicius. If they can nail him down then City will have a great chance, and Walker is the only player with the ability to do that.

“Bayern Munich had good, good chances against City in the away leg of their quarter-final and were unlucky not to win that game. If Real Madrid play like that, create those chances, they have a better winger in Vinicius Jr and a better centre-forward in Benzema, so those chances will lead to goals.

“There are horses for courses, and Walker is a great defender. At the Bernabeu, where they will have to defend for large periods, they are going to need defenders.”