Cricket World Cup: How the Black Caps can advance to the semifinals in India

ANALYSIS: It’s crunch time at the Cricket World Cup and despite suffering four losses in a row, the most recent against Pakistan in the rain on Sunday, the Black Caps still have a chance to make the semifinals.

They finish their round-robin campaign on Thursday, when they play Sri Lanka at M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru in a match they will be favourites to win, despite their recent form.

Whatever happens, there is a chance net run rate (runs per over scored minus runs per over conceded) will be used as a tiebreaker to separate teams that finish level on points in the race for third and fourth.

That was the case in 2019, when the Black Caps pipped Pakistan in that fashion, then went on to stun India in the semifinals before losing to hosts England in a dramatic decider at Lord’s.

As things stand, Australia have 10 points and a net run rate of +0.924 in third, while the Black Caps have eight and +0.398 in fourth, Pakistan eight and +0.036 in fifth and Afghanistan eight and -0.330 in sixth.

Sri Lanka, on four and -1.162, and Netherlands, on four and -1.398, are the two other teams mathematically still in the picture.

India and South Africa have already qualified ahead of their meeting in Kolkata on Sunday night, which is likely to decide who finishes first and who finishes second.

Here’s everything you need to know about how the semifinal race could play out, starting with the result that matters most – the Black Caps’ against Sri Lanka.

If the Black Caps beat Sri Lanka…

They will finish with 10 points and their net run rate will improve.

Australia can finish with 10 if they lose to Afghanistan (on Tuesday) and Bangladesh (on Saturday).

Afghanistan can finish with 10 if they beat one of Australia (on Tuesday) or South Africa (on Friday).

Pakistan can finish with 10 if they beat England (on Saturday).

If there is a tie at 10 points, whether for third and fourth (if Australia end up there) or just fourth, the net run rate tiebreaker will be required.

The simplest path to the semifinals for the Black Caps is for them to win, Afghanistan to lose both their matches and Pakistan to lose their last match.

In that case, net run rate won’t be required – the Black Caps will finish fourth as the only team with 10 points.

The second-simplest path would be for them to win, Afghanistan to lose twice and for Pakistan to win while failing to improve their net run rate enough to go past New Zealand.

If Afghanistan win one of their remaining matches, the Black Caps need to keep them at bay as well when it comes to net run rate, though that is almost certain to be the case, given the current gap between the two teams.

Complicating matters is the fact that Afghanistan and, more pertinently, Pakistan will know what is required for them to go past the Black Caps on net run rate by the time their final matches start.

The nightmare scenario, however unlikely, is if Afghanistan win both their remaining matches while Australia beat Bangladesh.

In that case, they would both finish on 12 points and be out of reach of New Zealand.

If Afghanistan were to win twice and Australia were to lose to Bangladesh, the Black Caps would need Australia’s net run rate to fall below theirs – and Pakistan’s to stay below theirs – to advance.

If the Black Caps lose to Sri Lanka…

They will finish the round-robin on eight points, their net run rate will worsen, and they won’t be able to catch Australia.

If Afghanistan have already beaten Australia by then, they will have 10 points and the Black Caps will be eliminated.

If Afghanistan have lost to Australia, they will have another chance to eliminate New Zealand by beating South Africa.

If Afghanistan lose to South Africa, Pakistan will then have the chance to eliminate the Black Caps by beating England.

If the Black Caps, Afghanistan and Pakistan combine for four losses in their remaining matches and all finish with eight points, the last semifinalist will be decided on net run rate.

If Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh on Monday before beating the Black Caps and if the Netherlands beat England on Wednesday and India on Sunday, they can also finish on eight points, but their net run rates are so far behind the other three teams’ as to make their chances of advancing unrealistic.

Whatever happens on Thursday, late nights on Friday and Saturday are likely to be in store for New Zealand cricket fans eager to see how it all plays out – and it might pay for them to keep their calculators handy.

If the match is rained out…

Bengaluru rain had a big say in how Saturday’s match between the Black Caps and Pakistan ended and it could yet have a say on Thursday.

If bad weather prevents both teams from facing at least 20 overs, the match will finish with no result and both New Zealand and Sri Lanka will receive one point.

The Black Caps will then need Afghanistan to have lost to Australia and to lose to South Africa and for Pakistan to lose to England in order to make the semifinals, as they have done at the last four World Cups.

What comes next?

The semifinals will be played on November 15 and 16 in Mumbai and Kolkata, with the final to follow on November 19 in Ahmedabad.

Cricket World Cup semifinal race

Team (points, net run rate): Remaining fixtures

Already qualified

India (14 points, +2.102): v South Africa, Sunday; v Netherlands, Sunday week

South Africa (12 points, +2.290): v India, Sunday; v Afghanistan, Friday

Still in the hunt

Australia (10 points, +0.924): v Afghanistan, Tuesday; v Bangladesh, Saturday

Black Caps (8 points, +0.398): v Sri Lanka, Thursday

Pakistan (8 points, +0.036): v England, Saturday

Afghanistan (8 points, -0.330): v Australia, Tuesday; v South Africa, Friday