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Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for November 21, 2022


Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY)

U.S. Dollar Index 52 Week Chart

Hello everyone. Welcome back. My name is Greg Firman and this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November the 21st, 2022. Now to get started this week, we’ll begin where we always do with the US dollar Index. Now very few sellers of the dollar in general this past week. We can see that after the volatility of the previous week, we’ve got the PPI number. The Fed can officially start counting, in my opinion, as the best language that I could use by, because we’ve got a slightly lower CPI number and a slightly lower PPI number. However, the Fed has been very, very clear on his position, despite the fact the media keeps spinning this, that the Fed is going to pause, he’s not going to hike any further. The Fed has said no such thing to dispel that myth right now, the Fed has actually, Bullard has come out last week even further hawkish suggesting they could be going to five, even 7% before inflation is under control.

So that narrative that the Fed is going to pause is extremely unlikely, but the event risk this coming week will of course be the Fed minutes. So we will get a better insight as to what the entire committee thinks in which way they’re going. But in my respectful opinion only they’ve been crystal clear as to what they’re going to do and they’re not budging from their 2% inflation target. So the dollar pausing out here, it is a holiday short next week, a holiday, short week, next week, excuse me, with the US Thanksgiving. Notoriously volatile week. So the dollar here we have, the way the charts are set up, I’ve got the neural index with the neural index strength, the predicted differences, the medium and long term predicted differences, and this is what will be used for this week’s presentation. With of course, the verified zones and the weekly, the monthly, and the yearly opening price.

So the dollar’s still in a very firm up trend. The yearly opening price, 95.64, that is indisputable. When we look at the dollar, the dollar has been extremely bullish the entire calendar year. Right now, we’ve got a newly formed verified support low that’s coming in at about 105.34, and that is very, very close to the 200-day moving average. Also that the market will be watching very closely. We briefly dip below it and then immediately move back up. So the structure right now, our TCross Long 108.86, we have again the neural index strength. Now this is the difference. The neural index is red, green or yellow, red being down, green being up, yellow being cautious like a set of streetlights. But the neural index strength itself, it allows us to see inside the neural index as to whether it’s continuing to slope down or it’s slowly reversing the other way.

So when we look at this, you can see that the neural index started rising right at the beginning of last week. We had another dip, but the neural index continued neural index strength, excuse me, continued to advanced higher. Then finally, we broke above the zero line, and now our neural indexes turned green. We look at the medium term crossing the long term predicted difference, which is telling us that if nothing else, the dollar is going to correct higher, potentially back towards this 108.86. Or in the alternative, I could make the argument that this is a corrective move lower in the broader up trend and the dollar is going to now resume its up trend. That is entirely possible, but we need those Fed minutes. I think first, if we see the dollar mysteriously gaining strength prior to Wednesday, excessive amount of strength, I would argue that those minutes have been potentially have been leaked.

So monitor price. But right now we know where our support is. Down right around 105.30 and the indicators and vantage point are suggesting the dollar index is going higher. Now, the main intermarket correlation in the markets right now indisputably is if the dollar is going up, stocks are going down.

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 Index 52 Week Chart

Now this past week you can see we’ve got the weekly opening price and the S&P once again, basically not making any gains really on the week at all, other than briefly on Tuesday. We could see that the S&P went up to a high of 4028, but that’s also where the 200-day moving averages on the S&P. So we’ve got the dollar index at the 200-day moving average at 105.30 approximately, and then we have approximately the 200-day `moving average around 4020. So that’s where our resistance is, and you can see the stack levels.

Now, the primary trend and the stock market is clearly indisputably down. You can see that the yearly opening price, 4778, the S&P 500 guise has never been positive on the year for any more than a couple of hours back in very, very early January of 2022. So again, when we’re looking at what the trend is, the trend is clearly down. So right now we’ve got our medium term crossing our long term predicted difference, warning us that the medium trend or the corrective move up is again, is losing momentum here.

So right now, we’ll watch this very closely. The support for this week is the TCross Long 3876. What we aim to do, or what I aim to do with these particular videos is move away from some of the short term indicators and keep our long term medium and longer term indicators on the screen so we can visually see them. If you like to use additional tools, I personally don’t, I’m not a big fan of the 200-day moving average, but the market is. So if the market believes that that particular number works, then I should respect that and say, “Okay, well these are our two levels.” In order for a bigger move up or down on stocks or the dollar. Then again, in my respectful opinion, those two levels need to, or one of the levels needs to break on either the dollar index or the S&P 500.

There is about 99% inverse correlation in these markets between these two. So not a lot of stock buyers this past week, earlier in the week. And then after that, down we go again, the Fed, Bullard coming out and again, clarifying to the market. There’s no pivot, guys, I don’t know who’s… The media can say whatever they want, but there is no pivot coming from the Fed, the exact opposite. That doesn’t bode well for stocks. So we can look at this, say our monthly opening here, price is at 3901. So it’s actually mildly positive on the month, but not by much and still firmly below that yearly opening price. So again, I believe that there will be a breakout this coming week on either the dollar or the S&P 500. But if we look at the actual primary trends on both, the dollar trend is up. The S&P is down.

The dollar usually doesn’t do very well in the month of December, but this one could buck the trend because the market is betting for some reason that the Fed is going to pivot and stop hiking, even though he has clearly stated, he’s not. And he’s also stated that he doesn’t care about the unemployment numbers, he only cares about inflation. Unemployment can be up or down, he could care less. Very interesting. I’ve never personally seen that, and it’s been probably 15, 18 years since I’ve seen the S&P 500 unable to get above, at some point during the calendar year, the S&P is unable to get above it’s yearly opening price and stay above it for even a couple of weeks or a couple of months. We don’t even have that this year, guys. It’s been down the entire calendar year. So watch this again, our TCross Long 3876. If we start losing that breaking down this week, then the primary trend is likely going to resume.

Gold

Gold 52 Week Chart

Now, when we look at gold prices here, once again, gold had a big push up with that softer CPI number, slightly softer PPI number, but nothing that would hold gains. So you can see that with using the weekly opening price here, we started to break down below that. But when we look at the neural index here, we can see that the neural index is green. But if we look at the neural index strength, you can see that it’s actually pointing down, it’s sloping down, it’s losing momentum in the market. Then ultimately, we broke under the weekly opening price, and that triggered further gold, probably just profit taking on gold. But again, the question is the US or is there going to be a global recession coming here, which usually favors gold.

But this year, I’m not convinced that gold’s going to make a lot of gains. 1829, the yearly opening price, we’re still firmly below that. Very little is changed, but a lot of this is just speculation that the Fed, but remember what the Fed said, clearly that it will take multiple months of lower inflation. That’s what it will take, multiple months. And that’s why I use the terminology. Maybe we can start to count this, but the count starts at one guys, it doesn’t start at 10 or eight because we don’t have that. So it is going to be likely several months into the first quarter before the Fed even thinks about pausing. So once again, gold is, you can see the gold buyers are getting a little nervous whenever we get close to this yearly opening price. So right now we have a very similar signal here, the MA diff cross.

This is right now, it’s a corrective move lower because we’re above the vantage point TCross Long, but the primary trend on gold right now and this year is actually down. So when we look at this, if I go back, we look at this over the nine month period, even the Russia Ukraine War couldn’t keep gold prices up, and then we broke down here in June below that yearly opening price, and we’ve just consistently made new lows here. So the theory here would be that I could definitely see gold. I would think that gold would be able to get towards the 1800 mark, but now, well, the indicators in VP are starting to roll over to the opposite side. But again, I view this as corrective while above the TCross Long. This is why I only have one predicted moving average for this presentation.

So there’s less confusion around the shorter term crossover. So right now that TCross Long 1718. One of the things I always say is that the further we move away from 1718, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace back to it. And that’s exactly what we’re doing right now. So keep an eye on that. Right now, the weekly opening price for gold is probably going to start around the week around 1750. So gold will have to maintain above 1750 to keep this bullish momentum. But the indicators in VP are saying that is unlikely.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin 52 Week Chart

Now, when we look at Bitcoin, once again, a lot of false information being all us traders or investors is that we hear on the news every day, Bitcoin’s down 70%. See we told you it’s a scam. Remember, when they’re talking about how much something is down, shouldn’t they also be talking about how much something is up.

So yes, bitcoin is down 70% on the year, but even if we look at Bitcoin from say 2016 where it was trading at 300 bucks, 315 bucks, it’s still up 5650%. So what’s happening with FTX, this is mismanagement. It’s not the broader Bitcoin market. You’ve got the Charles Mungers of the world coming out of the woodwork here saying, “See, I told you it was a scam.” Bitcoin’s annualized returns for the last 10 years, 238% per year top investment. So that means Berkshire Hathaway and Buffet and his cronies, that means they missed the best investment over the last 10 years. That’s a little scary that somebody would come on and say, “Well, see, we told you it’s down 70%.” But well wait a minute. It’s still up 5600% from just 2016. And if you go back further than that, it’s up considerably more than that still.

So where Bitcoin goes from here, that’s left to be seen. You can see the neural index strength is very much in a cautionary stage. This is not the time of the year where Bitcoin does well anyway. So again, we will continue to monitor the developments in the crypto market. But in my respectful opinion, the media once again is spinning this with only giving you some of the facts, not all of them. So what I try to do is advocate both sides. The bull argument and the bear argument, yes, we’re down 70%, but we’re still up again 5600% since just 2016. So we remember back in the days of Apple when they had dropped considerably, almost disappeared altogether. And now look where Apple is. So it is tech, it is volatile. But right now, what in my respectful opinion Bitcoin will need is it will need the stock market to rally. Every time the S&P, the Nasdaq, the Dow has gone up, Bitcoin has gone up with it.

That’s a fact, guys, you can put the charts side by side. Bitcoin remains about 98% correlated to the S&P. Even after that, the announcement of FTX going under the S&P rallied the next day, and so did Bitcoin after they said that’s it, Bitcoin to 10,000. It rallied up to 18, 19,000 the very next day. So this is where we’ve got to look and understand intermarket correlations. When we understand that, then we can say, “Well, yeah, Bitcoin’s got some struggles ahead of it, but it’s got a very high correlation to the stock market.” So if the stock market breaks out to the upside next week, then bitcoin would go higher, not lower. But if the stock market breaks down under the 200-day moving average, gets pounded lower next week, Bitcoin will follow.

Crude Oil

Crude Oil 52 Week Chart

Now, when we look at going into our oil contracts, once again, the oil contracts not doing overly well. And again, this could be another argument that inflation is coming down, but oil prices are normally moving in this seasonal pattern at this time, in most cases anyway, you can see it from last year. We moved down consistently until we started moving into January, and then we started moving back up. So again, I think we have to take, or we have to really be careful what media pundits we’re listening to because I don’t think they see the intermarket correlations. I don’t think they’re seeing the seasonality factor of it, but they are promoting everybody to get long stocks, stocks seasonality, stocks are going higher. The chart I’ve just shown you paints a very different picture. So when I look at oil right now, when we look at it, first of all, we’re saying that oil is normally not that strong right now anyway, but the indicators are all still pointing lower.

I would respectfully submit that we keep an eye on this neural index strength indicator because again, it can show something, the neural index can still be read, but you can see here that basically it warns us there’s potentially momentum building in the opposite direction. So that’s something we want to continue to watch. In my respectful opinion, the TCross Long 85.97. Once again, the further we move away from it, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace to it.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Euro versus U.S. Dollar 52 Week Chart

Now, as we get into some of our main pairs, once again looking at the euro from this past week, very few buyers of the euro up at these particular levels. The one thing we do have to ask ourselves, has anything changed in the Eurozone, in the UK? Is the war over, do they still have an energy crisis? Of course they do. By shutting down those coal and nuclear plants, they shot themselves in the foot everywhere here, and that’s not going to be fixed before the snow hits. So right now, reality check for the euro is what this week is likely going to be.

If the dollar advances the euro is going lower, if the dollar tanks, the euro’s going higher. But you can see that we actually finished the week virtually exactly where we started. We had a little popup there on the PPI number, and then that was quickly put to bed by Fed Mullard by saying that, “Look, we could be going to 7% here.” So right now, I think that there’s going to be… If they’re going to continue to buy the Euro, they’re going to do it very cautiously ahead of the Fed. But if there is a significant breakout on Wednesday morning or late Tuesday trade, then that could mean again, that those Fed minutes were leaked and they’re trying to get into the trade early, or they’re trying to get out of the trade before those fed minutes because they know that it’s going to be a hawkish minutes, which I suspect it will be actually. And if it is, it could be a euro killer.

So I would be prepared for the potential for a move into 1.0141. We have a newly formed verified resistance high coming in at 1.0479. So another scenario that often I see play out here is that when we start the week, we immediately push towards the previous week high and then mysteriously on Tuesday, it goes the opposite way. Be very, very careful of that because right now our neural index, our neural index strength, the MA diff cross again, is warning of dollar strength.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

When we look at US/Swiss franc, another potential dollar long area, we see the same signal, the medium term crossing the long term predicted difference, the neural index strength showing a slightly different signal than the neural index itself breaking above the zero line, we’ve got, again, a newly formed verified zone, the yearly opening price, 0.9109. You can see how the markets springboarded off the weekly opening. My only concern is we are considerably lower from the monthly open out at the parity level, but I believe we’re going to go up and test this TCross Long at 0.9697, and that potentially will open the door back up to the parity level or above. But this pair does still show the overall depreciation of the US dollar. I’m used to trading this one guys around the 1.15, 1.20 area, even the 1.10, 1.8 1.06. So it’s still showing the depreciation of the dollar.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now the British pound this week, once again, I believe it’s too is going to struggle up here. So when we look at these levels right now, the weekly opening price, we’re just staying above it. It is doing better than the euro, but not a lot. So the verified resistance high for next week 1.2026, we would have to consistently stay above that for this to remain bullish. You can see 1.3531, the yearly opening price still in a very bearish trade formation. We can also assess the medium term crossing the long term predicted difference is even more troubling to me because again, that’s saying we’re losing momentum here. The pink line over the blue line, it measures the medium term crossover and vantage point against the long term crossover. And this is warning that we don’t have a lot of buyers up here. And when we look at how we started the week, once again, we have a very, very brief spike in the PPI number, which was not sustainable. But we did hold above. We did close above the weekly opening price. It did do better than the Euro currency, but not by much. So again, our TCross Long 1.1630, the probability of at least that area being tested next week is extremely high.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the dollar/yen after that selloff from the previous week is now also very little to no follow through from the previous week. This is all because the media’s spinning the CPI number that now the Fed has to stop. Now the Fed has to pause and pivot. No, he doesn’t. And he;s said multiple months of lower inflation, not one, not one number, multiple months. We don’t have that. So as you can see, the dollar/yen buyers step back in. But the medium term crossing the long term predicted difference, the neural index strength crossing above the zero line after a level that has not been hit in probably 10 years, like the dollar index. When you look at overbought oversold, looking at the neural index strength, I don’t have a reading this low on the dollar index in over 10 years, 15 years. So it’s an extreme oversold condition.

I believe that potentially, so is Japan, US/Japan. So it’d be looking for a move back towards the TCross Long 143.35. Remember guys, this is still the number one carry trade out there. Long the dollar short the yen, and if the Fed continues to hike, the interest rate differential gap is going to grow bigger, not smaller. Even the Fed only hikes 25 basis points a month from here on out. It still widens that gap making the dollar very attractive against the yen.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar 52 Week Chart

Now the Canadian dollar, once again remains in its yearly up trend. The yearly opening price, 1.26,37. Zero sellers down here right at the very start of the week here, they have a fake price, which looks bullish on the first day on Monday. We do this one in the vantage point live training room every single week, and this is what Canada does. And so it makes a bull move up. Then it sells off on Tuesday and then on Wednesday you see the real price as we start working our way back to the TCross Long. And this particular setup, again, we’re above the yearly opening price, the weekly opening price, the monthly is 1.3623, very likely that we are going to retrace to that. But we must clear the vantage point TCross Long first at 1.3447, where initially to start the week, I believe we’re going to have some sellers here, but it’s likely a fake price. Remember, the one thing I’ve always tried to teach to in the rooms and the seminars is that you have three currencies that are tied to the S&P 500, the Canadian dollar, the Aussie, and the New Zealand. Once again, is this a warning sign that the dollar is going to be the winner between the battle between the dollar and stocks?

Again, suggests that the dollar is not down and out here, right or wrong, it’s not about being right or wrong guys. It’s connecting the dots to these intermarket correlations.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar 52-Week Chart

So right now we have had zero buyers on the Aussie to begin the week, and then we end up closing below the weekly opening price. We’re below the yearly opening price at 0.7264. This is still in a very strong down trend, the monthly opening price, 0.6396. So again, if we start breaking down and we hold below the weekly opening price, the very minimum price we would likely target would be 0.6556. The same thing applies to the New Zealand, but I have argued this month, particularly with my own direct clients, that if you must buy or sell this, and in actual fact what we’ve done is we’ve looked at Aussie/New Zealand, saying the New Zealand on the seasonal basis is the stronger currency than the Aussie. So if I don’t want to trade Aussie/US and New Zealand US, I simply go over and short Aussie/New Zealand.

The month of November over the last five years, the Aussie/New Zealand pair has never closed above its opening price. It’s been bearish every single November for the last five years. That’s a seasonal pattern, guys, an exponential seasonal pattern that tells me that.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar 52 Week Chart

So instead of going after longs on Aussie/US or longs on New Zealand/US, I can take the safer bet and just short Aussie/New Zealand without the exposure, direct exposure to the US dollar. So just another way to play that. But again, we are going to have another volatile week with those Fed minutes, and I do suspect there will be a breakout on the dollar or the S&P 500 coming next week. So with that said, this is the VantagePoint AI Market Outlook for the week of November, the 21st, 2022.





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  6. Raindrop Charts are a unique and intuitive way to visualize volume profile or volume at price action.

TrendSpider has three big benefits:

  1. It saves traders and professional analysts a lot of time and can provide an edge in the market.
  2. It uses mathematics & AI to help traders spot trends they would have missed.
  3. It helps beginners to learn how to draw trend lines.

 


Stock Rover Black Friday Deal

Stock Rover is ideal for USA Value, Dividend & Growth investors seeking innovative fundamental stock analysis, screening, and portfolio management software. Stock Rover enables the easy implementation of powerful investing strategies.

Stock Rover Highlights Details
⚡ Features Charts, Powerful Screening, Research, Broker Integration
🏆 Unique Features 10-Year Historical Financial Data, Full Portfolio Mgt, Correlation, Rebalancing & Value Investing Benefits
🎯 Best for Growth, Dividend & Value Investors
🆓 Free Version Stock Rover Free
🎮 Premium Trial Free 14-Day
✂ Premium Discount 25% During Trial Period
💰 Price $0-$27/mo
🌎 Markets Covered USA
Stock Rover Best Stock Software For Growth, Income & Value Investors
Stock Rover Best Stock Software For Growth, Income & Value Investors

Pros

✓ 10-Year Financial Data
✓ Best Screening Criteria
✓ Stock Scoring & Ratings
✓ Value, Dividend & Growth Screeners
✓ Easy to use

Cons

✘ No Social Community
✘ No Real-time Charts

Stock Rover Black Friday -30% Deal Starts In:

Stock Rover is best at screening for stocks to build professional growth, dividend, and value stock portfolios. Stock Rover provides detailed research reports, historical screening, portfolio management reporting, rebalancing, and correlation.

If you manage your portfolio of stocks with multiple brokers, Stock Rover will also integrate them into one view.

Stock Rover is not for day traders; it is for long-term investors that want to maximize their portfolio income and take advantage of compounding and margin of safety to manage a safe and secure portfolio.

Fundamental Stock & ETF Screening

Stock Rover scores perfectly in our screener testing, offering the most detailed stock and ETF financial data. Stock Rover has over 600 data points and historical data stretching back ten years, enabling you to backtest fundamental strategies. Stock Rover also has a unique Margin of Safety, Fair Value, and Discounted Cash Flow data to help you invest, like Warren Buffett. Add the exclusive stock scoring systems, and Stock Rover is the best stock screener for the North American markets.

I do not say this lightly. If you are a long-term US Investor, Stock Rover is the best & only software you ever need.

Why Stock Rover is Best for Investors: Review & Test Video

 


Trade Ideas Black Friday Deal

Trade Ideas is best for active day traders wanting AI-driven trading signals. Trade Ideas provides actual buy & sell signals for trades by performing millions of backtests per day on 70+ strategies. The Holly AI platform has an audited track record of beating the market.

Trade Ideas Highlights Details
⚡ Features Charts, Scanning, Broker Integration, Trading Room
🏆 Unique Features AI Trade Signals, Auto-trading, Proven Profitable Track Record
🎯 Best for US Day Traders
🆓 Free Version No
🎮 Premium Trial Try the Trading Room for Free
✂ Premium Discount -15% Discount Code “Liberated”
💰 Price $118-$228/mo
🌎 Markets Covered USA

Trade Ideas Black Friday -30% Deal Starts In:

Pros

Trade Ideas Review Winner - Best AI Trading Software for Automated Stock Trading & Day Trading
Trade Ideas Review Winner – Best AI Trading Software for Automated Stock Trading & Day Trading

✓ 3 AI Trading Algorithms
✓ Market-Beating Audited Performance
✓ Exceptional Stock Scanning
✓ Real-time Trade Signals
✓ Auto-trading With AI Signals
✓ Free Live Trading Room Access

Cons

✘ User Interface
✘ Takes Time To Learn
✘ Choice of Indicators

According to our testing, Trade Ideas is the industry-leading artificial intelligence-powered stock market scanning and trading signals generation platform. Despite a complicated user interface, the real power lies underneath with 30 channels of trading ideas & three AI systems pinpointing trading signals for day traders. Trade Ideas promises and delivers the nirvana of market-beating returns.

Trade Ideas is unique because the software tells you when to buy and sell stocks by analyzing millions of trade setups daily. The analysis results in 3 to 5 high probability trades every day.

Trade Ideas Standard costs $118 per month, or you can save $348 by going for an annual subscription costing $1068, a 25% discount. Standard includes a live trading room, streaming trade ideas, ten chart windows, trading from charts, and 500 price alerts.

  • Live Trading Room: Get free access to the live trading room.
  • Real-time Streaming Trade Ideas provides access to 40 pre-configured scans.
  • Simultaneous Charts, the ability to have ten chart windows open.
  • Chart-Based Visual Trade Assistant enables you to trade directly from charts.
  • Up to 500 Price Alerts to notify you when a stock meets your criteria.
  • Channel Bar Curated Workspaces provide access to 30+ channels of ideas.

Trade Ideas Premium costs significantly more than Standard service at $228 per month. You can save $468 by going for an annual subscription costing $2268. Premium provides the three Holly AI Systems, specific real-time trade signals, risk assessment, full backtesting, and integrated auto-trading.

Trade Ideas Premium features include:

  • AI Virtual Trading Analyst Holly, three different constantly evolving AI algorithms
  • Chart-based AI Trade Assistance for Buy and Sell Signals
  • Risk Assessment, detailed information on the backtested performance of the recommended trade.
  • Build and Backtest any Trade Idea with an intuitive backtesting system.
  • Autotrade Brokerage Plus and AI,  an advanced auto trading program using Interactive Brokers.

Trade Ideas is the most expensive software in this review because it offers the real possibility of beating the market using AI pattern recognition and establishing a trading bot to auto-trade on your behalf.

Trade Ideas, unlike any other software, does all the work for you providing you specific market beating AI trading Signals, to help you make regular profits.

The Trade Ideas Platform

Extensive testing reveals that Trade Ideas is an incredibly powerful stock trading desktop app that seamlessly integrates cloud-based AI algorithmic stock signals to provide high-probability day trading opportunities.

When you first open Trade Ideas on your desktop, the software feels clunky and not user-friendly. Every chart and table is in a separate window, so if you want to resize the view, you need to resize all eight windows. This seems such a hassle initially and seems to hark back to the age of Windows 98.

There is a good reason for this design; you have endless flexibility and window configuration options if you operate multiple monitors and large screens. Even though they are fully separate windows, they can be linked and unlinked together to provide a more fluid experience with some practice.

Trade Ideas Platform, Channels & Charts
Trade Ideas Platform, Channels & Charts

So although it is clunky and some of the most important functions are hidden behind right-click menus in certain windows, you start to get used to the design after a few hours.

 


Benzinga Pro Black Friday Deal

Benzinga Pro is a unique stock program for trading real-time stock news. Designed for day traders, Benzinga Pro delivers real-time market-moving news to give you a trading edge. Additionally, a news squawk box, direct access to the news desk, and real-time charting and scanning complete the service.

Benzinga Pro Highlights Details
⚡ Features Real-time News, Calendar, Charts, Screening
🏆 Unique Features Stock & Options Squawk Box, News Sentiment, News Rating, Options Alerts
🎯 Best for US Stock, Fx, Commodity & Bond Traders
🆓 Free Version No
🎮 Premium Trial 14 Day Free
✂ Premium Discount -25% Code “SMARTER”
💰 Price $79-$117/mo
🌎 Markets Covered North America

Benzinga Black Friday -35% Deal Starts In:

Pros

Liberated Stock Trader Review Winner
Benzinga PRO, Winner Best Actionable News Service For Traders

✓ Best Real-time Stock Market News
✓ Squawk Box Live Feed
✓ Real-time Alerts & Signals
✓ Good Charts & Screening

Cons

✘ North America Only
✘ No Broker Integration

Benzinga PRO costs $79 per month for the Basic Plan, which gives you real-time newsfeeds and watchlist alerts. Benzinga Pro Essential costs $117 per month, adding the Squawk Box, Calendars, Sentiment Indicators, and the Chat with Newsdesk functionality.

The stock program is stable and elegant, allowing you to set up multiple workspaces and monitors to suit your needs. Benzinga is also constantly adding new functionality, and it is a platform that should grow with your needs.

Benzinga Pro Scanning & Screening

Benzinga Pro is the best for scanning and screening the news, but it can also screen for technical and fundamental data. Benzinga Pro has 32 fundamental screening criteria, including P/E, PEG, Profitability, Margins, and Insider Ownership. There are also 23 market scanning criteria, including volume change, relative volume, and short interest.

Real-Time Trading News – BZWire Access

Core to the Benzinga Pro service is access to the real-time newsfeed, which updates quickly and effectively. The only news excluded in the basic package is the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) announcements and Public Relations (PR) newsfeeds.

The Core Benzinga Pro Newsfeed - Red for Bearish - Green Ticker For Bullish
The Core Benzinga Pro Newsfeed – Red for Bearish – Green Ticker For Bullish

 


MetaStock Black Friday Deal

MetaStock is best for stock traders who need real-time news, access to a huge stock systems marketplace, and the best technical stock chart analysis, backtesting, and forecasting. All international exchanges are covered & backed up with excellent customer service.

MetaStock Highlights Details
⚡ Features Charts, Watchlists, Scanning, Backtesting
🏆 Unique Features Forecasting, Real-time Global Trading News (Multi-language)
🎯 Best for Stock, Fx & Commodity Traders
🆓 Free Version No
🎮 Premium Trial 30-Day Free Trial
✂ Premium Discount 3 Months for 1
💰 Price $59-$250/mo
🌎 Markets Covered Global

MetaStock Black Friday -20% Deal Starts In:

Pros

MetaStock Review Winner: Best Stock Backtesting & Technical Analysis Charting For Global Markets
MetaStock Review Winner: Best Stock Backtesting, Forecasting & Technical Analysis Charting For Global Markets

✓ Best Stock Backtesting
✓ Largest Selection of Charts & Indicators
✓ Real-time Global News
✓ Stock Forecasting
✓ All International Stock Exchanges

Cons

✘ PC Only/No Mobile App
✘ No Broker Integration
✘ Poor Interface

The latest release of Metastock is a big hit with improvements across the board. Considerable advances in scanning, backtesting, and forecasting make this one of the best offerings on the market.

MetaStock Screening & Real-time News

Using MetaStock R/T, you can see an incredibly in-depth analysis of company fundamentals from debt structure to top ten investors, including level II. Excellent watchlists featuring company financials and powerful scanning of the markets make MetaStock unique.

MetaStock R/T Refinitiv integration means you get institutional quality real-time news, analysis, research, and economic outlooks. Refinitiv is the fastest global news service available in the industry. For international investors, MetaStock is unique because the news is also translated into all major languages.

MetaStock Technical Chart Analysis

MetaStock has over 350 stock tools for charting, annotation, and drawing trendlines and indicators, the broadest selection of technical analysis tools on the market today. MetaStock is the clear leader in pure technical analysis of stock charts; it includes Point & Figure and Market Profile Charts, meaning it has the best stock trading charts.

Innovative additions to MetaStock, like Foreign Exchange forecasting based on market sentiment, are exceptional. This makes MetaStock our recommendation for the best technical chart analysis software.

MetaStock Systems & Backtesting

Another area where MetaStock excels is what they call “Expert Advisors.” MetaStock harnesses many inbuilt systems to help you understand and profit from technical analysis patterns and well-researched systems. This is a unique differentiator from the competition. The most significant addition to the MetaStock arsenal is the forecasting functionality, which sets it apart from the crowd.

MetaStock has over 100 computerized stock market systems called Expert Advisors. These programs scan stock charts for a system’s targeted conditions. The Expert Advisor systems, either in-built or as 3rd part add-ons, will help you understand and profit from technical analysis patterns in price and volume. This is a unique differentiator from the competition.

MetaStock Forecaster Capability

The most significant MetaStock innovation is the forecasting functionality, which does not exist with any other software. By selecting Forecaster from the power console, you can simply choose one or more stocks, ETFs, or Forex pairs and click forecast. You are then presented with an interactive report which enables you to scan through the many predictive recognizers, which help you understand the basis for the prediction and the methodology.

The Powerful MetaStock Forecasting Tool
The Powerful MetaStock Forecasting Tool

 


Tickeron Black Friday Deal

Tickeron has impressive AI-powered chart pattern recognition and prediction algorithms for stocks, ETFs, Forex, and Cryptocurrencies. Tickeron excels at providing thematic model portfolios and specific pattern-based trading signals combined with success probability and AI confidence levels.

Tickeron Highlights Details
⚡ Features Portfolios, Watchlists, Screening
🏆 Unique Features AI Trade Signals, AI Portfolios & AI Pattern Recognition
🎯 Best for Traders & Investors Using AI Trading
🆓 Free Version Yes
🎮 Premium Trial 14-Day Free Trial
✂ Premium Discount 50% Off All Annual Plans
💰 Price $0-$250/mo
🌎 Markets Covered USA

Count down to Black Friday!

Pros

✓ 45 Streams of Trade Ideas
✓ 40 Chart Patterns Recognized
✓ AI Trend Prediction Algorithms
✓ Audited Performance Track Records
✓ Build AI Portfolios

Cons

✘ Custom Charting Limited
✘ Cannot Plot Indicators

Tickeron’s trading platform is unique and innovative, combining artificial intelligence and human intelligence based on the community of traders, so you can compare what the humans think versus the machines.

Tickeron targets day traders, swing traders, and investors with intricate features and benefits specific to your investing style.

Tickeron is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SAS Global, a leader in data analytics whose services are used by the majority of fortune 500 companies. Tickeron uses AI rules to generate trading ideas based on pattern recognition. Firstly they use a database of technical analysis patterns to search the stock market for stocks that match those price patterns using their pattern search engine. Of course, each detected pattern has a backtested track record of success, and this pattern’s success is factored into the prediction using their Trend Prediction Engine.

Pattern Recognition

At the heart of Tickeron is the ability of its AI algorithms to spot 40 different stock chart patterns in real time. You can select which pattern you want to trade, and it will filter stocks, forex, or cryptocurrencies that currently show the pattern. Patterns are split into bullish patterns for long trades or bearish patterns for those who wish to go short.

Tickeron Real-time Stock Chart Pattern Recognition
Tickeron Real-time Stock Chart Pattern Recognition

Tickeron’s real-time pattern recognition is particularly useful for swing or day traders, where market timing is the top priority. Tickeron also can scan the entire market and suggest which patterns are working best on a particular day. In the screenshot above, you can see “Today’s Top Ranked Patterns,” which rates the potential success of the patterns based on the market’s current trading activity.

Trading Signals & Prediction

Tickeron has implemented a powerful feature called AI Confidence level. Based on the history of the stock, the success rate of a particular pattern, and the market’s current direction, Tickeron can assign a confidence level to a trade prediction.

The screenshot below shows that the Tickeron AI predicts that ABUS has an 88% chance of declining in value and ACET has an 81% chance of increasing in value.

Tickeron's AI Pattern Prediction Engine
Tickeron’s AI Pattern Prediction Engine

The outstanding feature of the Tickeron prediction engine is that you can simply click “Show previous predictions” to check if the Ai has done a good job in the past with a particular pattern on specific stocks. The prediction engine provides the right level of clarity and granularity so you can make informed trading decisions.

 


Finviz Black Friday Deal

Finviz provides lightning-fast free stock charting, robust screening, and stock chart pattern recognition. Finviz lets investors visualize a vast amount of stock market data with heatmaps and money flows on a single screen.

Finviz Highlights Details
⚡ Free Features Charts, News, Watchlists, 50 Screener Configs, Heatmaps [Ad-supported]
🏆 Premium Features Real-time data, Alerts, Correlation Charts, Backtesting, Data Export, 8 years of Financial Statements
🎯 Best for Beginner Investors/Traders
🆓 Free Version Finviz Free
🎮 Premium Trial 30-Day Money-Back
✂ Premium Discount -37% With Annual Plan
🌎 Markets Covered USA

Count down to Black Friday!

Finviz Free & Premium

Finviz has three pricing plans; the Free plan is free to use without registering. Registered users can also use the service for free and save their settings. Finally, the Elite service costs $39.99/mo or $24.96/mo on an annual plan, saving you 37%.

You can have Finviz for free; however, the real power of Finviz is unleashed with the Elite service, which provides real-time data and maximum flexibility.

Finviz’s free plan is ad-supported, but it provides a huge amount of value for beginner investors. You can scan and screen over 10,000 stocks without registering and use the delayed charts and news stream. The free plan is ideal for beginner investors who want to check the markets fuss-free.

If you like Finviz, I highly recommend registering for free because it provides all the free version features. You can also configure 50 portfolios, 50 stocks per portfolio, and save 50 screener configurations.

Finviz Charting Heatmaps

The Finviz heatmaps are the star of the show, providing a view of the US or even the entire world’s stock markets. Finviz manages to cram the entire world’s moving stocks onto a single-page heatmap at lightning speed, which is very impressive. Simply hovering your mouse over a ticker symbol shows the stock’s current performance, a mini line chart, and the company’s direct competitors.

Finviz Review: Heatmaps for Stocks
Finviz Review: Finviz Heatmaps for Stocks

Interestingly viewing the Finviz stocks heatmaps based on analyst recommendations shows how biased institutional analysts are, as 70% of stocks are flagged as positive.

Finviz allows you to visualize markets based on stock price performance, volume, P/E, PEG, Dividend Yield, Float, EPS, and even analyst recommendations. From here, Finviz allows you to double-click on stock and jump directly to the individual company data and chart. The whole process is extremely fast and efficient.

Looking at stock charts with Finviz is different from the other stock software products on the market. Whereas MetaStock & TradingView provide hundreds of fundamental technical analysis indicators, Finviz focuses on basic pattern recognition on daily charts and a small handful of overlays and indicators.

I like the Finviz automatic trendline recognition and how it identifies price patterns like wedges, triangles, double tops, and channels; this is a big advantage for pattern traders.

With 9 chart overlays, including Bollinger Bands and VWAP, and 17 chart indicators, the stock charting experience with Finviz is ok.

Finviz Review: Finviz Charts With Indicators
Finviz Review: Finviz Charts With Indicators (notice the blue save buttons)

The Finviz service is worth using, with excellent heatmaps, free global stock screening service, good news aggregation, and insider trading information. What more do you expect for free? Finviz provides fast stock screening, heatmaps, and stock chart pattern recognition for free. If you want to visualize a large amount of stock data and find investments quickly, Finviz is definitely worth it.

 


Portfolio 123 Black Friday Deal

My testing of Portfolio123 shows impressive stock screening, software with a robust financial database, and integrated commission-free trading with Tradier. Portfolio123 can be used by income, value, and growth investors but is also advantageous for swing traders.

Portfolio 123 Highlights Details
⚡ Features Screening, Research, Powerful Backtesting
🏆 Unique Features Free $0 Integrated Trading, 10-Year Financial Database
🎯 Best for Stock & Options Traders
🆓 Free Version No
🎮 Premium Trial 21 Days for $9
✂ Premium Discount None
💰 Price $0-$83/mo
🌎 Markets Covered USA/Canada

Count down to Black Friday!

Pros

✓ 470+ Screening Metrics
✓ 10-Year Backtesting Engine
✓ Pre-built Model Screeners
✓ 260 Financial Ratios
✓ Integrated Free Trading

Cons

✘ No Integrated News
✘ No App for Android or iPhone

Portfolio123 covers stocks, fixed income, and ETFs on US & Canadian exchanges, so it is unsuitable for international stock investors. With Portfolio123, you can design a real-time trading strategy, fully automated with a broker, that will hold the stocks that pass your screen and sell those that don’t.

Most ideas based on fundamentals will be covered with over 225 data points. Portfolio123 has 460 criteria, including analyst revisions, estimates, and technical data.

You can also use Portfolio123 to screen stocks on their performance relative to the S&P500 or any other benchmark. You could develop a strategy to select stocks based on their historical performance versus the market.

The number of factors available for screening is impressive. Not only can you screen based on reliable information from a company’s financial reports, but you can access technical factors, create your factors using period and announcement dates, eliminate stocks with high bid-ask spreads, limit your screen to stocks in a certain industry, or sector, rank factors against other stocks in an industry or sector, and change your factor balance depending on economic conditions.

Portfolio123 Review: Incredibly Powerful Screening
Portfolio123 Review: Incredibly Powerful Screening

Building your Portfolio123 screener is theoretically easy; select Research -> Screens, and you can start to play. No programming skills are required to build a Portfolio123 screener, but basic coding will certainly help. If you want to create more powerful screening rules, you will need to study the coding logic and understand the proprietary criteria names.

 

 



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“PM Modi In 2014”: US’s Example On Key Immunity For Saudi Crown Prince


PM Modi speaking at the 2014 Global Citizen Festival in New York’s Central Park. (File)

New Delhi:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was given the same kind of protection from prosecution in the US that was recently afforded to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a US State Department spokesperson said in a briefing on Friday.

Pressed about granting immunity to the crown prince over the brutal killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in which he is an accused, US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said PM Modi was among those who had received similar protection.

“This is not the first time that the United States has done this. It is a longstanding and consistent line of effort. It has been applied to a number of heads of state previously,” Mr Patel told a journalist.

“Some examples: President Aristide in Haiti in 1993, President Mugabe in Zimbabwe in 2001, Prime Minister Modi in India in 2014, and President Kabila in the DRC in 2018. This is a consistent practice that we have afforded to heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers,” he said.

India is yet to comment on the remarks.

The US had placed PM Modi on a visa ban in 2005 over allegations that his government did nothing to stop the 2002 riots in Gujarat as Chief Minister.

Until his election as Prime Minister in 2014, the US maintained that there is “no change in its policy”, even after the United Kingdom and the European Union ended their boycott.

PM Modi has been cleared of any wrongdoing by investigations into the Gujarat riots. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court rejected an appeal against his exoneration in one of the cases linked to the killings.

Over 1,000 people were killed in the three-day violence in Gujarat in 2002 and the state police faced grave charges of not doing enough to stop the riots that began after a train coach carrying pilgrims was burnt in Godhra, killing 59 people.



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Know About Online Legit Insider Trading For Beginners


Insider trading is the act of trading in the stock of a publicly traded firm by a person who, for any reason, possesses non-public, material knowledge about that stock. Based on the period the insider executes the trade, insider trading may be either legal or illegal.

When the relevant information is still private, insider trading is prohibited and is subject to severe penalties.

KEY LESSONS

  • Insider trading refers to the purchasing or selling of shares in a publicly traded corporation by a person who has access to substantial, non-public data about that stock.
  • Some information that is materially nonpublic and not generally available that could materially affect an investor’s choice to buy or trade the security is referred to as private information.
  • This type of insider trading is prohibited and carries severe repercussions, including possible fines and jail time.
  • Insider trading is acceptable as long as it complies with the SEC’s regulations.

What is Insider Trading?

The purchasing or trading of a security “in violation of a fiduciary responsibility or other relations of faith and credibility, on the basis of substantial, private data about the security,” according to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States.

Any data that could significantly affect a buyer or seller of a securities is considered material information. Information that is not legally accessible to the public is considered non-public information.

The effort of the SEC to keep a fair marketplace exists at the root of the legality issue. A person with access to insider knowledge will have an unfair advantage over other shareholders who lack that access and might potentially generate higher, unfair gains than their partner investors.

When you share any kind of significant nonpublic knowledge with others, you are engaging in illegal insider trading. When chief executives buy or sell shares, but legally declare their transactions, this is referred to as lawful insider trading. Regulations set forth by the Securities and Exchange Commission guard investments against the consequences of insider trading. Whether the individual is an employee of the corporation or not has no bearing on how the critical nonpublic information was obtained.

Assume, for instance, that someone discusses nonpublic material information with a friend after learning about it from a member of the family. All three parties involved may face legal action if the buddy takes advantage of this insider data to make money in the stock market.

Insiders: Who Are They and Why Do They Buy or Sell?

Insiders are defined as “management, officers, or any controlling shareholders with far more than 10% category of a company’s securities” by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Insiders are subject to regulations, which include submitting SEC forms each time they acquire or sell shares. The rule also prohibits insiders from depositing shares in under six months of their transaction in order to avoid insider trading, which is when people have illegal access to significant non-public information because of their holdings.

This essentially prevents insiders from making money off of quick swing trades using their inside information.

How Do Insider Transactions Affect the Market?

In general, insider buying is viewed as a bullish indicator because it demonstrates management’s belief in the company. In other statements, insiders predict an increase in the value of their stock. Insider selling is viewed negatively; those with knowledge may be unloading their stock in anticipation of a quick decline in share prices.

Insider purchases outperformed the market by 11.2% annually, according to a large survey by Yale University’s Andrew Metrick, Richard Zeckhauser, and Leslie A. Jeng of Harvard University. Insider sales, interestingly, were not as profitable.

Because of this, numerous investors monitor insiders’ activities.

Insider trading is typically associated with bad things. Weekly legal insider trading takes place on the stock market. The SEC mandates that transactions be promptly filed electronically. The SEC receives electronic transactions, which must also be declared on the firm website.

The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 marked the beginning of the legal disclosure of stock-related transactions. Directors and significant stockholders are required to report their holdings, transactions, and ownership changes.

  • As a first filing, Form 3 is used to demonstrate ownership of the company.
  • After 2 days of the sale or acquisition of business stock, Form 4 is utilized to report the transaction.
  • Declaring earlier or postponed transactions requires the use of Form 5.

Does Insider Trading Have a Bad Reputation?

Due to the notion that it is unethical to the typical investor, the word “insider trading” often carries a negative sense. Insider trading basically refers to the act of someone who knows meaningful, non-public knowledge about a stock of a publicly traded corporation trading in that stock. Based upon what insider trading complies with SEC regulations, it may be permissible or criminal.

Insider Trading: When Is It Illegal?

When the relevant knowledge is still secret, insider trading is believed to be unlawful and is subject to severe penalties, including possible penalties and fines. Any nonpublic data that could materially affect the company’s stock price is referred to as insider information. Naturally, having access to such knowledge could impact an investor’s choice to buy or sell the security, giving them a competitive advantage over the general public who do not. ImClone trading by Martha Stewart in 2001 is a good illustration of this.

Weekly legal insider trading takes place on the share market. The effort of the SEC to keep a fair marketplace exists at the root of the legality issue. Essentially, as far as they notify the SEC of these trades promptly, it is permissible for corporate insiders to trade company shares. The Securities Exchange Act of 1934 marked the beginning of the legal reporting of stock-related transactions. Directors and significant stockholders, for instance, are required to report their holdings, transactions, and ownership changes.

Insiders are defined as “management, officers, or any controlling shareholders with over than 10% category of a company’s securities” by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Insiders are subject to regulations, which include submitting SEC forms each time they acquire or sell shares. The rule also prohibits insiders from depositing shares in under six months after purchase in order to avoid insider trading, which is when people have unauthorized entry to substantial non-public information because of their positions.

Final Words

Insider Trading needs a lot of insider information that couldn’t be available easily. Our Spiking Race to 100 helps you reach that information in just one click. You can access the winnings and all the insider details to make your investment decisions.

Spiking Race to 100

We are extremely excited to announce we have a new product called Race to 100. You can track the best investors who have made more than 100% profit in a year and replicate their portfolios in just a few clicks. Be the first to learn these top investors’ new trades and trade alongside the shoulders of the giants. Try Race to hundred now at spiking.com/race!

Want to learn more about the various trading strategies and see which one suits you the best? Led by Dr. Clemen Chiang, the Spiking Wealth Community is an online community network. Together we are catching the Spikes so that you have faith, hope, and love in everything you do. Spiking Wealth Community helps you to accomplish time squeeze by connecting the dots through online courses, live trading, winning trades, and more. Join us for Free and start your Spiking Wealth Journey today!

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Steve Vannelli Interview on ARK Invest’s “For Your Innovation” Podcast – Knowledge Leaders Capital


After our recent quarterly report, “Has Innovation Bottomed?” ​​​​Knowledge Leaders Capital CEO and CIO Steven Vannelli, CFA, was invited to be a guest on ARK Invest’s For Your Innovation Podcast.

In the episode below, Steve and ARK Invest’s Renato Leggi, CFA, CAIA, discuss not only the turning point that may be ahead, but the long history of intangible capital and its importance in valuing innovative companies (45 min).

Link to podcast ep. 159
Video for podcast ep. 159 on YouTube

As of 9.30.22 the following securities mentioned in this podcast were held in the Knowledge Leaders Strategy and the rest were not: Qualcomm, LAM Research and Synopsis.

See links to Steve’s aforementioned quarterly report, “Has Innovation Bottomed?” and this week’s mid-quarter follow-up analysis, “Spheres of Innovation.”

 

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities or investment strategies.

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Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 to Add to Your Watchlist – Trade Brains


Top Stocks Under Rs 8000: Are you looking for stocks with high prices specifically? Do you hope to avoid volatile price fluctuations in your portfolio brought in by lower-priced stocks? In your opinion Rs 8000 a high enough mark? In this article, we cover top stocks under Rs 8000 that you can add to your watchlist. 

List of Top Stocks Under Rs 8000

We have put together a list of top stocks under Rs 8000. In this article, we look at their history, business, and key ratios. Additionally, in some instances, we also take note of how they have grown over the past 5 years.

So without further ado, let’s jump in.

CMP ₹7,119 Market Cap (Cr.) ₹430,000
EPS ₹164 Stock P/E 43.5
ROCE 10.3% ROE 17.5%
Face Value ₹2.0 Book Value ₹794
Promoter Holding 55.9% Price to Book Value 8.93
Debt to Equity 3.81 Dividend Yield 0.29%
Net Profit Margin 22.3% Operating Profit Margin 62.4%

Bajaj Finance Ltd. is the lending and investment arm of the Bajaj Finserv group. The company traces its roots to 1987 when it was founded as an automobile financier known as Bajaj Auto Finance. It slowly diversified into consumer durables and property financing. Later in 2010, its name was changed from Bajaj Auto Finance to Bajaj Finance.

It is a diversified NBFC catering to more than 38 million customers across the country. It focuses on the affluent category of clients. The company’s structure allows it to cross-sell efficiently making Bajaj Finance one of the most profitable firms in this category.

5paisa Derivatives Advisory

The non-bank offers consumer finance, commercial lending, corporate finance, investment, and SME finance products/services. It has a strong pan-India presence in 1,997 locations with a wide distribution network of over 1,02,600 active points of sale.

The AUM of Bajaj Finance has grown at an impressive rate of 19.02% every year for the last five years from Rs. 82,422 crore in FY18  to Rs. 1,97,452 crore in FY22. During the same period, its income from operations compounded at an annual rate of 19.93% to Rs. 31,648 crores. 

The NBFC posted an impressive return on assets of 4.2% in FY22 with a 17.4% return on equity. Additionally, its net NPA stood at 0.68% giving its asset quality a top-notch mark.

List of Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 - UltraTech Cement logo
CMP ₹6,713 Market Cap (Cr.) ₹194,000
EPS ₹231 Stock P/E 29
ROCE 14.3% ROE 15.2%
Face Value ₹10.00 Book Value ₹1,784
Promoter Holding 60% Price to Book Value 3.7
Debt to Equity 0.25 Dividend Yield 0.59%
Net Profit Margin 13.6% Operating Profit Margin 21.9%

The cement flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, UltraTech Cement is the largest producer of grey cement & ready mix concrete (RMC) and one of the largest white-cement manufacturers of white cement in the nation.

It was established in the mid-1980s. Over the years the company has grown organically and inorganically. 

The company has an installed manufacturing capacity of 119.95 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA) of grey cement. It has 22 integrated production facilities, 27 grinding units, one clinkerisation unit, and 8 terminals devoted to bulk packaging.

UltraTech’s large network of more than one lakh channel partners along with its strategically located units give it a market reach of over 80% across the country. 

In June this year, UltraTech announced a large capital expenditure of Rs. 12,886 crores for brownfield and greenfield projects. The company has planned production targets of 137 MTPA by FY24 and 159.25 MTPA by FY25 respectively.

For a large-cap company, it has grown its revenues at an impressive CAGR of 12.41% from Rs. 30,979 crores in FY18 to Rs. 52,599 crores in FY22. During the same period, the net profits grew even faster at an annual rate of 26.95% to Rs. 7,334 crores in FY22 from Rs. 2,224 crores in FY18.

Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 #3 – Tata Elxsi Ltd.

List of Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 - TATA Elxsi logo
CMP ₹6,998 Market Cap (Cr.) ₹43,500
EPS ₹108 Stock P/E 65
ROCE 47.7% ROE 37.2%
Face Value ₹10.00 Book Value ₹272
Promoter Holding 44% Price to Book Value 25.8
Debt to Equity 0.11 Dividend Yield 0.60%
Net Profit Margin 22.2% Operating Profit Margin 31.0%

Tata Elxsi is the technology services arm of the salt-to-software conglomerate the Tata Group. It was founded in 1989 and provides advanced R&D in new technologies, system architecture, actual development, validation, and deployment services.

The company’s range of services includes AI, broadcast & media, automotive, and healthcare products. As for its services portfolio, it offers research & strategy, product engineering, enterprise learning, and more.

Tata Elxsi caters to leading clients from automotive, communications, healthcare, rail, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and other industries. 

Its stock has given an impressive return of 347% in the last two years and a 709% return in the last 5 years. 

As for its revenue growth, Tata Elxsi’s sales have grown at a CAGR of 12.26% every year in the last 5 years. It is virtually a debt-free stock with a high return on capital employed and return on equity ratios of 47.7% and 37.2% respectively.

List of Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 - Blue Dart Logo
CMP ₹7,589 Market Cap (Cr.) ₹18,000
EPS ₹199 Stock P/E 38
ROCE 31.0% ROE 55.2%
Face Value ₹10.00 Book Value ₹433
Promoter Holding 75% Price to Book Value 17.5
Debt to Equity 1.04 Dividend Yield 0.79%
Net Profit Margin 9.2% Operating Profit Margin 22.7%

Blue Dart Express Ltd. is not only India’s but also South Asia’s premier logistics company. An integrated transportation and distribution company, it covers over 35,000 locations across the nation and offers express air delivery services as well. 

With its worldwide express and logistics network, it is able to reach over 220 nations and territories by offering a broad range of distribution services: supply chain solutions, freight forwarding, air express, and customs clearance.

In addition to this, Blue Dart has partnered with major portals in India making it a preferred choice for B2B and B2C eCommerce solutions.

The logistics company has warehouses spread across 85 locations in India. Its indigenously developed state-of-the-art technology for Track and Trace, MIS, ERP, Customer Services, and more offers it a competitive edge over the other players. 

In FY22, the company handled 263.28 million domestic and 0.862 million international shipments through its 2,347 facilities and strong 12,200 workforces. 

It was started in November 1983. In 2002, DHL Express picked a majority 81.03% stake in the company. The stake was diluted eventually in 2012. This was because the then Singapore-based DHL Express had a promoter holding of 75% in Blue Dart Express. 

Top Stocks Under Rs 8000 #5 – Wendt India Ltd.

WENDT Logo
CMP ₹7,627 Market Cap (Cr.) ₹1,500
EPS ₹151 Stock P/E 50.5
ROCE 23.4% ROE 17.0%
Face Value ₹10.00 Book Value ₹847
Promoter Holding 75% Price to Book Value 9
Debt to Equity 0 Dividend Yield 0.85%
Net Profit Margin 14.5% Operating Profit Margin 23.7%

Established in 1980, Wendt (India) Ltd. is a joint venture between Wendt GmbH and Carborundum Universal Ltd. (CUMI). Each party holds a 37.5% stake in the company taking the total promoter ownership to 75%. 

Carborundum Universal is owned by the renowned Murugappa Group making Wendt a house of Murugappa’s enterprise as well. The group owns well-known companies such as Coromandel International, EID Parry, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, and Tube Investments of India.

Wendt manufactures various industrial products including bonds & abrasives, grinding machines, honing machines, precision products, and other allied products. Its products find applications in automobile, aerospace, steel, ceramics, and refractory industries.

The industrial product’s manufacturer is debt-free with high return ratios of capital at 23.4% and equity at 17% respectively. Over the last five years, it has grown its revenues at a CAGR of 4.01% from Rs. 147 crores in FY18 to Rs. 179 crores in FY22. However, during the same period, its profits more than doubled from Rs. 13 crores in FY18 to Rs. 27 crores in FY22.

List of Top Stocks Under Rs 8000

We covered five top stocks under Rs 8000 above. The table below lists more such companies with stock price trading below the Rs. 8000 mark.

Company Name Industry CMP (Rs.) Market Cap (Rs. Cr.)
Bajaj Finance Finance 7,119 430,000
UltraTech Cement Cement 6,713 194,000
Tata Elxsi IT Services 6,998 43,500
Blue Dart Express Logistics 7,589 18,000
Wendt India Industrial Products 7,627 1,500
Bajaj Holdings & Investment Finance 6,622 74,000
Fine Organic Industries Chemicals 5,750 17,500
Gillette India FMCG 5,148 17,000
Sanofi India Pharmaceuticals 5,600 13,000
Cera Sanitaryware Sanitaryware 5,539 7,200

In Conclusion

In our study of top stocks under Rs 8000, two outliers emerged. Except for Blue Dart Express and Bajaj Finance, the other three companies have minimal or nil debt. Even for Bajaj Finance, it is imperative to have a large debt-to-equity ratio as it is an NBFC. Two companies have promoter holding at the upper band of 75%. 

But why did these stocks trade at such high quotations? Why didn’t these companies conduct a stock split?

One narration can be that the management of these companies wants to keep the ownership concentrated to avoid small investors’ ownership and consequent volatile price fluctuations. How about you let us know your perspective in the comments below?

You can now get the latest updates in the stock market on Trade Brains News and you can even use our Trade Brains Portal for fundamental analysis of your favorite stocks.

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This Semiconductor ETF Might Signal a Chip Recovery


The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), or AKA Sister Semiconductor of Mish’s Modern Economic Family, displays Leadership with our Triple Play indicator and strong momentum according to our Real Motion indicator.

Semiconductors are an essential part of our daily lives, a geopolitical football of national security interests, and chips are increasingly in demand.

Meet Sister Semiconductor (SMH), also known in trading circles as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). SMH potentially indicates new leadership in the beaten-down tech industry.

Today, institutional investment managers released their 13 F filings and sometimes disclosures provide insights. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) disclosed today that it bought a $4 billion stake in Taiwanese chip giant TSMC (TSM). Why is this significant?

Stock market returns from October 04 to November 14.

Many semiconductor companies outsource the manufacturing of their components to TSMC. TSMC is also the No. 1 holding in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and a Taiwanese firm which brings additional geopolitical risk. SMH is breaking out of a consolidation pattern; it is about to regain the 200-day moving average and closed just below it.

SMH crossed the 50-day moving average at the beginning of the month, and we might see a significant shift in the chip market if SMH can cross the 200-day moving average and hold this higher price level.

Semis are in increasing demand, and in the past, Sister Semiconductor (SMH) was one indicator of technology rebounding.

The Real Motion Indicator and Triple Play Indicator on SMH show that the momentum, price, and volume trends indicate potential bullishness. The Triple Play indicator is a strong signal of market leadership, but SMH is also running rich on the Real Motion Indicator. This could lead to a breakout above the 200-day moving average, but this could also be a risky trade as SMH is subject to potential mean reversion.

So far, the bear market in semis has lasted longer than expected, so traders need to keep an eye on these indicators to position trades correctly. Keep an eye on SMH to have a better understanding of where technology and the semiconductor business are headed next.

Our MarketGauge Leadership Line, Real Motion Indicator, and Volume Trend Line Indicator can help identify stocks and ETFs with strong leadership trends. Our team is here to assist if you have any questions or need help implementing these tools in your trading strategy.

Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, can provide pricing and software compatibility for our trading indicators and offer a complimentary one-on-one trading consult. Click here to learn more about Mish’s Premium trading service.

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Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Read Mish’s latest article for CMC Markets, titled “What’s Next For Key Sectors After the Midterms“.

Mish explains why MarketGauge loves metals and is still patiently loading up equities on Business First AM.

Mish talks metals, rates, dollar, and which sector to buy/avoid in this appearance on UBS Trending.

See Mish talk with Charles Payne on Making Money about the Oil markets testing the limits of Fed policy, China, and what to buy in the metals.

Mish joins Cheddar to talk about some of the fallout from the most recent Fed Meeting.

See Mish join Neil Cavuto and Eddie Ghabour on Cavuto Coast to Coast to talk about the Fed’s recent rate hike decision.


  • S&P 500 (SPY): 396 support and 402 resistance.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 185 support and 188 resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): 333 support and 339 resistance.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 286 support and 293 resistance.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): 62 support and 67 resistance.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 221 support and 229 resistance.
  • IYT (Transportation): 227 support and 233 resistance.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 133 support and 137 resistance.
  • XRT (Retail): 64 support and 69 resistance.

Keith Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Chief Executive Officer

Wade Dawson

MarketGauge.com

Portfolio Manager

Mish Schneider

About the author:
serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision.

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Money and Me: What happens after the recent S-REIT crash? – My Stocks Investing


15 November 2022

Money and Me: Money and Me: S-REITs vs T-bills & SSBs. Who trumps?

Just recently, Singapore REITs experienced one of its biggest sell off in 20 years. In fact, latest numbers from the iEdge S-Reit Index also revealed more than 15% decline in total returns year-to-date! 

But fret not, because on this episode of Money and Me, Dan Koh and Zia-ul Raushan invite Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor who will be sharing more about what investors should be doing amid the S-REIT sell off and where he sees value in the real estate investment space. 

 

 

Transcription:

Introduction

Singapore’s REITs and Property Trusts S-REITs Sector declined 7% in total returns. Latest numbers from the iEdge SREIT index also revealed that more than 15% decline in total returns year to date. S-REITs, which are traditionally seen as reliable income instruments, are starting to lose their appeal to investors. So against the backdrop of the recent SREIT sell-off, what should investors be doing? Today we ask Kenny Loh, REITs Specialist and Financial Advisor.

 

Q: Give us an overview of the current S-REIT market and how it has performed so far. (1:32)

It has been a rollercoaster for the past one or two months. Basically, if you look at the REIT Index itself, actually the capital it with a huge sell off of, 70% in September after breaking the support. If you look at index itself, the support level is about 790 – 800 level, and which has been holding very well for the past two years. Right after the sell off the REIT index itself reached the two year low of 660 points.

And after that the REIT index rebounded strongly with a gap out for the past two weeks of about 11%. That’s why you can see that more and less there is more or less V-shaped recovery. And today, uh, this morning, and when I look at the REIT index itself, basically the rebound momentum should continue.

 

Q: The US Fed’s recent delivery of its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and likely to further rate hikes in December by probably 0.5%, but we are still looking at that now. What do you make of this and how much of a pullback in share prices of as rates are you expecting? I mean, how do you see them responding to this news? (2:28)

I think at the present moment the REIT sector in Singapore has already priced in this rate hike. Based on last Friday, if you look at the inflation, inflation came in lower than expected, right?
That cause the huge rally on the US stocks itself. That’s why Monday the REIT index have a gap up and you can see the bullish moment coming in. So the present moment, actually yield spread is pretty wide. The selloff is really overdone.

If you compared to the price to book evaluation and also valuation you for the whole REIT sector itself, we are getting very close to the COVID crash level in March 2020. Which does not make sense because if you look at the macro environment and also the business environment, they are doing better than the covid crash because during Covid crash, everything locked down. The whole world economy has halted. And nobody knows what’s going on. At that point the sell-off is warranted and based on today’s valuation, it doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

Q: S-REITs are commonly seen as a safe haven in periods of volatility and uncertainty. But recent weeks have shown that it has struggled to stand up against the aggressive arising interest rate environment, and a potential recession. So, Kenny, what should investors do now? Is it the right time to buy the dip and has S-REITs bottomed up? (4:14)

It is important to do ‘bottom fishing’. I’m currently doing bottom fishing for myself and also for my clients because at the end of the day, we are investing in REIT for it passive income for our retirements. So as long as an investor has not really achieved their passive income goal, probably maybe 10,000 per month, first of all, they have to sell a target first, as long as they have not met the goal, they can use this price weakness to continue to accumulate more because investing in REITs like investing in real estate.
If the price/book value is 0.8, which means that 20% discounted valuation, if you just think of it, its like a property on Orchard Road selling at 20% discount, right? While in the macro environment, rents are going up. And you look at it, the valuation continue goes up. The rental goes up. Now the market gives you a huge discount because of a fear in the market. It’s a good time to accumulate. Nothing to worry about it.

 

Past REIT Index chart (2 years). V-Shaped Rebound on the way?

 

Q: But that raises the question if we should be investing our cash into safer investment tools like T-Bills and SSBs, because SSBs current return rate over 10 years is 3.47% and for T-Bills about 4%. It is worthwhile taking the risk? (5:45)

There are pros and cons. T-Bills very sensitive to interest rate. It’s pretty short term. You’re talking about six months and one year. In the rising interest rate environment you can lock in th high interest rate, but how about six months later? The rates will go down. You also cannot liquidate a T-Bill easily. If you want to liquid it in between, you need to sell at the market, you may incur a loss. You will have to make sure to hold until maturity.

For SSBs, you can lock in for the next 10 years, around 3.4%, if I’m not mistaken. Redemption period is only one month. That’s why I’m using SSB for my emergency fund and you can lock in for the next 10 years.

But on another hand that you do not have an opportunity to participate in the capital application. Right. So that is a disadvantage on the, the SSB itself. Also if you have 200,000 now, based on the last allocation, I think that each individual investor have been allocated about 10,000.

Moving forward, I think the next month it’ll be even lower because interest rate is much higher than the last issue. But REITs itself, they are currently undervalued. Eventually there’ll be a mean reversion. When that happens, you can enjoy the high yields of 7.4% average! Even Blue Chip REITs give you 6% easily. And some of the overseas property REITs are currently having 14% ttm yield!

The Yield Spread is pretty high now. In short, invest in Singapore. This gives an investor a chance to really participate in the upside, at the same time to be rewarded 6-7% yield. At the same time, you are also getting paid, and the dividends are much higher than SSB yields.

 

Q: Based on the recent reporting season, how do you think S-REITs performed? Were there any surprises or shocks that stood out? (8:28)

No big surprises. I would say that if compared to year on year, DPU growth is 50-50, half of REITs are doing better compared to the past year, half of them slightly below expectations. More noticeable however are hospitality REITs. We stared off from a very low base and of course definitely they perform much better during this period and moving forward when China is going to reopen,
I think it’s pretty soon because they cannot lock down forever, and Chinese tourists, when they do start traveling Asia and Singapore should become one of the top destinatiosn for Chinese tourists.

The Hospitality and Retail Sectors in Singapore are then expected to do well.

 

Q: What about those in the industrial sectors for S-REITs? How do you see the sustainability of their profits in the long term? (9:38)

So far, based on the past earnings of performance, they are still giving good DPU. It’s quite stable. It’s not really a factor. And they are also able to pass some of the costs increases and/or inflation by rising the tenant rentals and also increasing service charges. So I would say that those industrial, which have a very strong sponsor and also have very good track records, they are able to weather through during this period from the performance we have seen so far.

I believe they are experienced enough to have all different tools to really navigate during the high interest rate and also high inflation period. So especially when it come to the hospitality sector, you can see that hotel rates are being adjusted every day. They are able to adjust it as quick as possible to really capitalize and pass the costs onto the guests. the.

 

Q: Are there any S-REITs that have the potential to withstand prolong economic shocks and thrive during high inflation? (10:46)

There are quite a number of REITs investors should be careful of. Especially those with high Gearing. Also, a weakening economy environment. Because once your economy environment weakens, potentially your future rental will be affected. That will affect your portfolio valuation. Because valuations are based on the discounted cashflow for the future, and that will decrease the REIT’s NAV, and thus Gearing Ratio increases.

If they have short Debt Maturity profiles, they’ll have to refinance at higher interest rates. Lenders look at your balance sheet to see whether you’re strong or not strong before they can decide what kind of interest they’ll provide you. At the same time, if their Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) is low, That also indicates the weakness in terms of the cash flow generation. If they’re not able to generate enough cash flow to really pay off all the coupon rate or interest rate, the REIT will be in trouble. They have to either sell the current property (that will further decrease the DPU), or they have to issue additional rights.
It is also a bad time to issue rights, since the share price is very low. But if they issue the rights now, that will further depress the share price. REIT managers will try to avoid that.

 

Q: Which sectors look particularly attractive to you? (12:23)

Typically, I have 3 different themes to investing.

First theme: If an investor wants really stable, predictable REITs, just stay with the industrial sector because industrial sector is normally stable. But you still have to look at REITs with a lot of business parks. Because if the tenants are SMEs, with the recession period, you’ll have a tougher time navigating the recession period. But those big MNCs like those in the tech sector, with good cash flows, they can continue operations and pay rental. With blue chip industrial REITs, you should be able to have very stable dividends.

Second theme: Reopening play. I’m banking a lot on China. When China ends lock downs, and tourists come out, there’ll be the revenge spending and revenge traveling phenomenon again. We’ve done it before, right? So we cannot underestimate the spending power of all those China tourists. Certainly that will help in the hospitality sector. For the Hospitality sector, we have to stay with those hospitality REITs that have very wide exposure to China tourists.

Third theme: Third will be more on eCommerce, because eCommerce and also digitalization of the economy, you cannot run from it. The world is going through technology transformation. Everything will be digitalised. So data centres are another area I’m looking at for growth purposes.

 

Q: Now Kenny, moving on to overseas, Cromwell European REIT, IRETI Global and Elite Commercial REIT have suffered a brunt of risk off-sell off this year and is shared between 21.6% and 30.8% to date. In your opinion, do you think this sell-off was overdone and do they look attractive now? (14:25)

Yeah, REITs with overseas property looks very attractive to me now. But for Europe itself, there’s another element which is currency, right? Because if we are Singapore investors, if you are looking for the dividend payout in SGD itself, if you look at the Euro and the British Pound and their depreciation, that may be another reason why Singapore investors shun away from all these European REITs based on the currency of itself.

But if investors have not really invested in those countries yet, the yield is pretty attractive first thing. Second thing, the valuation is very cheap. And third thing, both Euro and the British Pound are very cheap. If you have a long term horizon, why not?
Invest and wait for the rebound of the currency and also rebound on the valuation. Eventually they’ll go back to the meanover the long term.

 

Q: How do you expect REITs to perform for 2023 and what Buy, Sell, Hold indications should we look out for? (15:46)

I have a cautiously bullish view on S-REITs themselves. I studied the past 10 years asset allocation returns of different asset classes. REITs used to perform very well for the past 10 years and whenever the prior year has a huge sell-off, the subsequent years for the S-REIT sectors you have a very strong rebound on the subsequent year. So, for me, basically I’m using this opportunity to lock in the Yield because the Yield is pretty high. At the same time, you are buying some REITs or property at a cheap revolution and just wait for it to recover. Do not really need to worry too much, and eventually properties are properties. Eventually the valuation goes up and also the rental income goes up. That will translate the growth in the future.

 

Historical Performances of each sector over the last 15 years.

 


Want to learn the fundamentals of what REITs are, and how can this asset class complement your investment portfolio? Why should you invest in this asset class with an average p.a. yield of 5-7% and $100 minimum investment amount? Tune in to learn how to kickstart/improve your REITs investing!

Date: 1st December (Thursday)

Time: 7pm – 830pm

Venue: Online

 

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

2022

2021

2020

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement



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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 14 – 18, 2022


EUR/USD: Is the Dollar’s Growth Over?

● Has the dollar rally come to an end? The answer to this question sounds more and more affirmative day by day. The reason for the weakening of the US currency lies in the interest rate of the Fed. This, in turn, depends on the state of the labor market and inflation in the US, which determine the regulator’s monetary policy.

Recent data have shown that the labor market is doing well at least. The number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was 261K in October, which is higher than the forecast of 200K. Although the number of initial jobless claims increased, the growth was insignificant and, with the forecast of 220K, it actually amounted to 225K (218K a month ago).

As for inflation, the data published on Thursday, November 10, turned out to be much better than both previous values and forecasts. Core consumer inflation (CPI) increased by 0.3% in October, which is lower than both the forecast of 0.5% and the previous September value of 0.6%. The annual growth rate of core inflation slowed down to 6.3% (against the forecast of 6.5%, and 6.6% a month ago).

This rate of change in CPI is the slowest in the last 9 months and suggests that a series of sharp interest rate increases have finally had the desired effect. Market participants have immediately decided that the Fed is now likely to slow down the pace of interest rate increases. As a result, the DXY Dollar Index went into a steep peak, losing 2.1%, which was a record drop since December 2015.

● The probability that the US Federal Reserve will increase the rate by 75 basis points (bp) at the next December meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is now close to zero. The futures market expects it to rise by only 50 bp. The maximum value of the rate in 2023 is now predicted at 4.9%, and it can be reached in May (a forecast a week ago predicted a peak of 5.14% in June).

All this does not exclude a new wave of dollar strengthening in the coming months of course. But much will depend on the geopolitical situation and the actions of other regulators. Many analysts believe that a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed (QT) will allow rival currencies to counter the dollar more effectively. The Central Banks of other countries are currently playing the role of catching up, not having time to raise their rates at the same pace as in the United States. If the Fed moves more slowly (and at some point, slows down altogether), they will be able, if not to overtake their American counterpart, at least to close the gap or catch up with it.

Here we can cite the Eurozone as an example. According to preliminary Eurostat data for October, inflation here reached a record 10.7%. And this despite the fact that the target level of the ECB is only 2.0%. So, as stated by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, the regulator has no choice but to continue to raise rates, even despite the slowdown in economic growth.

● The change in market sentiment resulted in a northward reversal of the EUR/USD pair. It was trading in the 0.9750 zone just a week ago, on November 04, and it fixed a local maximum at the height of 1.0363 on Friday, November 11. The last chord of the five-day period sounded almost nearby, at the level of 1.0357.   

Most analysts expect the pair to return to the south in the near future, 60%, and only 10% expect further movement to the north. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east.  The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while a third of them are in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, the green ones also have an advantage: 85% advise buying the pair and 15% advise selling. The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 1.0315, followed by the levels and zones at 1.0254, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580, and finally the September 28 low of 0.95. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0375, 1.0470, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

● Highlights of the upcoming week include the release of preliminary Eurozone GDP data on Tuesday November 15. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be announced on the same day. Data on retail sales in the US will arrive on Wednesday, October 16, and the market will be waiting for the publication of such an important inflation indicator as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone on Thursday, October 17. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak on November 16 and 18.

 

GBP/USD: UK Economy Plunged into Recession

● Recall that the Bank of England (BoE), raised the key rate by 0.75%, from 2.25% to 3.00%, at its meeting on November 3, as well as the Fed. This move was the strongest one-time rate hike since the late 1980s. At the same time, the head of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, said on Friday November 11 that “more interest rate hikes are likely in the coming months” and that “efforts to curb inflation are likely to take from 18 months to two years.” Silvana Tenreiro, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the British Central Bank, announced approximately the same dates. According to her, monetary policy will have to be loosened, possibly in 2024.

● However, it is not yet clear when and how much the BoE will raise the pound rate. The United Kingdom’s GDP data released last week, although below the forecast of -0.5%, still moved into the negative zone, showing a drop in the economy in Q3 by -0.2%. This was the first fall in 6 quarters, and it looks like it started the country’s plunge into a long recession, which, if quantitative tightening (QT) continues, according to the Bank of England, could last about 2 years.

● Economists at Bank of America Global Research analyzed how energy prices and the pace of Central bank policy normalization will affect G10 currencies. As a result, they concluded that the dynamics of the balance of payments will be a deterrent for currencies such as the euro, the New Zealand dollar and the British pound in 2023.

In the meantime, against the backdrop of data on slowing inflation in the US, GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, went up, adding almost 555 points over the week and reaching the weekly high at 1.1854. The final point of the trading session was set at 1.1843. And, according to the strategists at the American investment bank Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), the pound may soon test the August 26 high at 1.1900.

● As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here the bulls have received 25% of the vote, the bears 35%, and the remaining 40% of experts prefer to remain neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, of which 25% signal that the pair is overbought. Among trend indicators, the situation is exactly the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 85% to 15% in favor of the greens. Levels and zones of support for the British currency: 1.1800-1.1830, 1.1700-1.1715, 1.1645, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

● Of the events of the upcoming week, data on unemployment and wages in the UK, which will be released on Tuesday 15 November attract attention. The value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known the next day, on Wednesday, November 16, and the UK Inflation Report will also be heard. And data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, November 18.

 

USD/JPY: The Yen’s Strength Is the Weak Dollar

● it is evident that the fall of the dollar has not bypassed USD/JPY which, as a result, returned to the values of late August – early September 2022. The low of the week was recorded on Friday, November 11 at 138.46, and the finish was at 138.65. It is clear that the reason for such dynamics was not the strengthening of the yen and not the currency interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but the general weakening of the dollar. 

● Recall that after USD/JPY reached 151.94 on October 21, hitting a 32-year high, the BoJ sold at least $30bn to support its national currency. And then it continued to intervene.

Finance Minister Shinichi Suzuki said on November 4 that the government has no intention to send the currency to certain levels through intervention. And that the exchange rate should move steadily, reflecting fundamental indicators. But the dollar has now retreated by almost 800 points in just a few days without any financial costs from the Bank of Japan, without any fundamental changes in the Japanese economy. And this happened solely because of expectations that the Fed could reduce the rate of interest rate hikes.

What if it doesn’t reduce it? Will the Japanese Central Bank decide on one or more interventions? And will it have enough money for this? The second tool for supporting the yen, the interest rate, can probably be forgotten, since the Bank of Japan is not going to depart from the ultra-dove exchange rate and will keep it at a negative level -0.1%.

● The fact that the dollar will soon try to win back at least part of the losses and USD/JPY will turn to the north is expected by 65% of analysts. The remaining 35% vote for the continuation of the downtrend. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 80% are looking south, a third of them are in the oversold zone, 20% have turned their eyes to the north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of green and red is 15% to 85% in favor of the latter. The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.45, followed by the levels 137.50, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones: 139.05, 140.20, 143.75, 145.25, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

● As for the release of macro statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, we can mark Tuesday, November 15 next week, when the data on the country’s GDP for Q3 2022 will become known. According to forecasts, GDP will decrease from 0.9% to 0.3%. And if the forecast comes true, it will become another argument in favor of keeping the interest rate by the Bank of Japan at the same negative level.

 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Two Events That Made the Week

● The past week was marked by two events. The first plunged investors into incredible melancholy, the second gave hope that not everything is so bad. So, one at a time.

Event No. 1 was the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao’s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. About a billion dollars in cryptocurrency and stablecoins were withdrawn from the exchange, and its balance became negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well.

Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline. Investors do not like to see any failure in any risky asset, and they fear the domino effect when the collapse of one company threatens the existence of others.

Encouraging information came from the head of Binance: Chang Peng Zhao announced on November 08 that his exchange was going to buy the bankrupt FTX. (According to some estimates, the “hole” in its budget is about $8 billion). However, it turned out later that the deal would not take place. Quotes fell further down. As a result, bitcoin sank in price seriously, falling by almost 25% by November 10: from $20,701 to $15,583. Ethereum “shrunk” by 32%, from $1,577 to $1,072. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.792 trillion.

● There is no doubt that the collapse of FTX will increase the regulatory pressure on the entire industry. In the previous review, we started to discuss the question of whether the regulation of the crypto market is a good thing or a bad thing. It should be noted that the majority of institutions vote for regulation. For example, BNY Mellon, America’s oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors can increase their investment in cryptocurrency, but at the same time they are looking for ways to safely enter the crypto market, and not mindlessly invest money in the hope of high profits.

Approximately the same has recently been stated by Mastercard Chief Product Officer Michael Miebach. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.

● As for the event No. 2 mentioned at the beginning of the review, it was the publication of inflation data in the US on Thursday, November 10. As it turned out, it is declining, from which the market concluded that the Fed may reduce the pace of raising interest rates. The DXY dollar index went down immediately, while risky assets went up. Correlation between cryptocurrencies and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, lost at the time of the FTX crash, has almost (but not completely) recovered, and the quotes of BTC, ETH and other digital assets also began to grow.

● At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, November 11, BTC/USD is trading in the $17,030 area, ETH/USD is $1,280. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.860 trillion ($1.055 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell back into the Extreme Fear zone to 21 points in seven days.

● Cumberland, the crypto arm of venture capital firm DRW, believes a “promising uptrend” is emerging in the volatile digital asset market. “The dollar’s seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,” the firm said. “This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.”

Having analyzed bitcoin’s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a “bullish megaphone pattern.” In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.

As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

● The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.

According to billionaire Tim Draper, women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. “You can’t buy food, clothes and housing with bitcoin yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,” he said, predicting the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. It should be noted that this prediction is by no means new. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.

● And finally, some information from the criminal world. Moreover, it concerns not only the future, but also the past and present, and is important for each of us. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has studied cases of cryptocurrency fraud and has divided them into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.

ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include “getting an offer out of the blue,” “fake celebrity ads,” and asking a “romantic partner you only know online” to send money in crypto. Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits “for tax purposes” or offering “free money” or “guaranteed” investment income.

In general, as Adventus Caesennius, legate of the Imperial Legion from the computer game The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim, said: “Keep your vigilance. It will pay off sooner or later.”

 

NordFX Analytical Group

https://nordfx.com/

 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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