In the third week of December, media reports, citing excerpts of former Indian Army chief MM Naravane’s forthcoming book Four Stars of Destiny, suggested that the Agnipath scheme surprised the Army. By that extension, it was not unusual for Nepal to have been caught off guard.
Ever since the announcement of the Agnipath scheme in 2022, as per which soldiers are to be hired for a fixed four-year term, recruitment from Nepal has been on a halt. With no announcement made for the 2024 intakes, recruitment from Nepal has remained on a pause for four consecutive years now, as enlisting had been on hold in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
As the deadlock continues, it’s unclear if Nepalese will ever join the Indian Gurkhas regiments in the future. Agnipath appears to have ignited the beginning of the end of a brigade entirely made up of Nepalis in the Indian Army.
Kathmandu’s concerns
But concerns in Nepal run deeper than the fact that it was not kept in the loop in line with 1947 agreement.
Pradip Gyawali, a former Foreign Minister and leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), says while India failed to honour the spirit of the 1947 agreement, the scheme is fraught with risks for Nepal.
“What is concerning is that the youths with military training of four years could be used by some unwanted elements in Nepal once they return,” said Mr. Gyawali. “We should not forget the fact that we are still in post-conflict transition, seeking to conclude the peace process after the end of the Maoist war. Our vulnerability will increase.”
After launching Agnipath in June 2022, Delhi had sought Nepal’s position on the recruitment of Nepalese, as recruitment rallies were scheduled for August and September in Butwal and Dharan, the two towns where the academic and physical tests of aspiring youths are conducted.
An initially undecided Kathmandu then conveyed to Delhi that it would wait until elections in November 2022. In September 2022, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pande hinted that vacancies for Nepalese would be withdrawn if Kathmandu failed to take a decision on time.
There has been a status quo since.
Entry of Nepalese into the Indian Army has held more significance than just jobs — it’s rather a strategic bonding between the two countries. Both countries have duly upheld the long-standing tradition of conferring the honorary rank of General on each other’s army chiefs.
There has not been any significant indication of a bigger damage inflicted on overall Nepal-India ties because of the break-up of that “strategic bonding” due to Agnipath. It, however, does signify snapping of a key link between the two countries.
Tek Raj Simkhada, an Indian Army pensioner, says both India and Nepal “did unwarranted politics” in the Agnipath issue and that this will harm the rishta”(relations) between the two countries.
“At a time when there is such a scarcity of jobs here in Nepal, at least some youths had a window of opportunity in the Indian Army,” said Mr. Simkhada. “But that window too has been closed.”
The soaring unemployment rate is a major concern in Nepal. On December 29, two youths died in police firing in Lalitpur, a district adjoining the capital Kathmandu, during a protest over jobs in South Korea. Hundreds of young Nepalese have joined Russian and Ukrainian forces. Nepal said on Tuesday that three more Nepalese serving in Russian forces had died, taking the official toll of those losing their lives in the Russia-Ukraine war to 10.
Tim Gurung, a former British Gurkha and the author of the book Aayo Gorkhali—A History of the Gurkhas, finds a number of issues that led to India’s launching of Agnipath.
“Homework had been going on for long to phase out Gurkha battalions comprising only Nepali soldiers,” Mr. Gurung said over the phone from Hong Kong where he is currently based. “The Agnipath scheme is now the final nail in the coffin.”
Mr. Gurung, whose new book about Nepalese in the Indian Army is scheduled for a release in March, however, pins the blame on the Nepali stakeholders and politicians.
“It’s not a matter of pride for a citizen of a country fighting on behalf of any other country. But it is also a sad fact that Nepal’s political leadership has failed to create jobs for their youths,” he said. “With regards to Agnipath, Nepal failed to stand up before India to remind it of the tripartite treaty that governed the recruitment. It’s an indication of a weakening state.”
Until the recruitment came to a pause, 1,300 to 1,500 Nepalis were being enlisted every year. There are a little over 1,25,000 Indian Army pensioners in Nepal. According to the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu, pensions worth ₹27.96 billion were distributed in the fiscal year 2016-17 alone.
Full circle
Nepali communists who have for long opposed Nepalese joining foreign forces may find Agnipath to be a godsend, as it has stalled recruitment, if not completely ended. Before launching a war against the Nepali state in 1996, the Maoists, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”, had submitted a 40-point memorandum to the then government led by Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba. One of the demands was abrogation of the recruitment of Nepalese in foreign forces, especially the Indian Army. When India launched Agnipath in 2022, Mr. Deuba was the Prime Minister. The issue remained unresolved, and today when the recruitment continues to be on a pause, Mr. Prachanda is leading the government in Nepal.
The Agnipath issue was not part of the agenda during Mr. Prachanda’s visit to Delhi in June this year. That the issue remains deadlocked was also reflected during Indian Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar’s visit to Kathmandu on January 4-5.
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Mr. Gyawali however, says a review was needed on the issue of Nepalese joining the Indian Army, but not the way Agnipath has made it to be. “A process guided by a certain agreement should have been ended or amended through the review of the same agreement, not unilaterally,” said Mr. Gyawali.
Beginning of the end
A little over 32,000 Gurkhas are currently serving in the Indian Army. And with gradual retirements of soldiers and no new intakes, estimates are that in about seven years, the strength of Gurkha battalions will be half of what it is today. And by 2037, there may be no pure Gurkha battalions.
Pensioners like Mr. Simkhada say if the Agnipath scheme is not reviewed by India and Nepal sticks to its position of not letting the Indian Army hire Nepalese, it will mean an end of the years-old legacy.
“I am not the authority to talk about the impact it can have on ties between the two countries,” said Mr. Simkhada. “What I know is Gurkhas in the Indian Army stood as a bond between the two countries. The recruitment did not only mean jobs, it served as an important link between the two countries.”
Mr. Gurung says as long as the Nepali state does something substantial for its youths, they will continue to go abroad for employment—even to war-torn countries.
“Had the Indian recruitment not stopped, possibly some of the youths may have not gone to Russia as they would have been absorbed in the Indian Army. But that’s just a conjecture I can make at this time,” said Mr. Gurung. “What I can definitely say is Agnipath has set in motion the beginning of the end of the Nepali Gurkha battalions in the Indian Army. Things don’t seem to stand at ease.”
(Sanjeev Satgainya is an independent journalist based in Kathmandu)
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