WILL VLADIMIR PUTIN DECLARE WAR ON UKRAINE TODAY?

 

You may recall that last year Russia issued a stern warning to Kiev that if it persisted in targeting locations within Russia it would begin targeting control and decision-making centres within Ukraine. It has not done so until now as the Russian leadership has not declared war on Ukraine, contrary to what is perhaps the opinion of most regarding Russia’s actions since February 24th. The Russian leadership certainly does not categorise its actions in Ukraine as constituting a war. This is why it designated the campaign in Ukraine as a special military operation.

This is not merely sophistry. As most insightful observers will confirm, Russia has not been conducting a full blown war against Ukraine despite the lurid tales that western mass media has regaled readers and viewers with since Russia’s campaign began. The Russian military has taken care to limit civilian casualties and significantly has not till now targeted vital infrastructure. If the U.S. approach in the Iraq war is compared with the situation in Ukraine the difference between the approaches can easily be seen.

Russia regards the Russian-speaking people living in the Donbass in the same way as they do their own citizens, therefore it would be wholly inconceivable for the Russian military to go in all guns blazing destroying everything wholesale including vital infrastructure. In addition, the mission to liberate the Russian-speaking population there requires the cooperation of the civilian population both during and after victory over the Ukrainian regime. For both these reasons creating a humanitarian disaster and mass slaughter of civilians just to eliminate the Ukrainian army in their positions is unacceptable.

The Ukrainian army, as confirmed by Amnesty International in their report last year, is heavily embedded within the civilian population across the entire area Russia is seeking to liberate. This is why the incremental gains by the Russian military appear excruciatingly slow to many outside observers. Naturally Russia has the capacity, through a bombing campaign or using hypersonic missiles or even nuclear devices, to completely decimate all areas where the Ukrainian army faces them. However, until now it has demonstrated commendable restraint.

This may be about to change. Though the targets decided upon if a change does occur will not necessarily be in the area directly facing the Russian military, at least not in the Majority of cases. There are several reasons why a change in tactics may occur comprised of an expansion of targets for attacks.

It has now become clear that the western powers are seeking endlessly to escalate the conflict and have no desire to take any conceivable path toward peace. All the talk is of supplying the Ukrainian regime with ever more powerful weaponry including missiles with a longer range. Talk of providing fighter jets has also been heard. This blind insistence of escalating the conflict to ever greater heights will bring an inevitable Russian response and that response we may hear the details of very soon.

In recent times the Ukrainian armed forces have been making an increasing number of attacks on Russian territory. Initially these attacks targeted Belgorod, within the Russian Federation north of Kharkov, then a number of attacks targeting the Crimean peninsula. Closer to the present attacks also killed a number of personnel and did some damage targeting Russian airfields deep inside Russia. Multiple red lines were crossed.  In addition, the murder of the daughter of a prominent Russian figure by a Ukrainian agent last year also contributed to a number of last straws for Russia. Overall however, it is the constant escalation by the western powers regarding weaponry plus the obvious disinterest in having negotiations toward a resolution of the conflict that is focusing Russian minds.

It can be expected that, as in past occurrences where additional action was deemed necessary, a debate will occur in Russia’s parliament, the Duma where additional powers may be granted to the Russian president. Perhaps these will merely extend targets to a limited degree, however, the possibility exists that more significant powers will be granted, such as the ability to authorise a declaration of war and with this authorisation, to extend attacks to Ukrainian control and command centres and even perhaps the authorisation for President Putin to order tactical nuclear strikes on positions and major military/intelligence assets not previously targeted.

Whether any of the above occurs will depend on the judgement of the president and those issuing new levels of authority to him in the Duma. If the current escalations planned by the West are regarded as serious enough seeing that a near future end to the current special military operation is unavailable and also, bringing into consideration the recent increasing number of attacks being made by Ukraine within Russia, then the authorisation provided may well be open ended.

Under these circumstances can it be possible that Russia will now seriously consider declaring war on Ukraine and opening up the prospect of targeting those locations currently off limits, potentially including the authorisation of limited tactical nuclear strikes? I suspect so. Time will tell.

The tactic being deployed by the western powers opposing Russia through a sustained Ukrainian defence is composed of an attempt to weaken Russian resolve through a continued military response by the Ukrainian forces. And also of course to completely ignore all admonitions to take part in negotiations/peace talks. We see this policy of the U.S., UK and European powers as reflected in the attitude and public statements of Zelensky and those around him. The Ukrainian policy, as repeatedly stated, is to refuse to take part in any talks with Russia until Russia leaves all Ukrainian land taken by them. This Russia will never do.

Russia’s statements regarding Ukrainian political elites who persist in targeting locations within Russia have been clear.  The Russian leadership can be seen to repeatedly have had its hand forced by the escalation emanating from the collective West and declaring war on Ukraine, or formally declaring it a terrorist state appear to be strong possibilities now. If such a decision is made and formally authorised then the number and type of targets in Ukraine will very likely be much expanded to include decision-making and control centres, vital infrastructure including internet access and much, much more. A full scale war waged against Ukraine is something that has not been seen to date and would certainly proceed to devastate what is left of Ukraine.

Especially hard hit would be nodes of central command, including those where western and NATO expertise are located. All transport networks would be targeted, not just those suspected of transporting weapons. Storage depots of all types, not simply those having known association with the Ukrainian military. Electricity and gas infrastructure would then very likely become targets. As was talked of when the USA waged war against Iraq, a collapsing of whatever is left of Ukraine’s vital infrastructure would be sought and likely to take the country back toward an earlier, impoverished state, if not back to the Stone Age.

These are my forebodings on what may occur now that it is clear that the present desire of the western elites is to constantly urge the Ukrainian leadership to fight on without any movement toward a resolution of hostilities through a negotiated peace. This point appears to have passed with the attacks on the Russian homeland, the attacks on Crimea, the terrorist murder of Darya Dugina and the endless supply of weaponry to the Ukrainian regime by the West and its minions. We must await the deliberations of Vladimir Putin and the Russian Duma.

Will Russia declare war upon Ukraine with all this signifies? I fear so. At that point the world enters a yet more dangerous situation than even the one already confronting us. With all sides facing an existential threat to their power, sovereignty and security and so being resolutely unable to back down, by all sides seeing ever more escalation as the only way in the circumstances to pursue their vital interests, the end result can only mean the threat of not only all-out war in Ukraine but the ever-increasing threat of a nuclear war between Russia and the entire collective West.