What the rise of Anas Sarwar reveals about the state of Scottish politics – Politics.co.uk

It has been a long time since Scottish Labour felt optimistic. At the 2015 general election Labour was reduced to just one MP north of the border. The SNP had steamrollered the 56 other seats, laying the foundations for a still largely unchallenged nationalist ascendency at Westminster. 

Scottish Labour has felt the pain in Holyrood, too. It has not held the first minister’s post since 2007, and under the leadership of Kezia Dugdale and Corbynite Richard Leonard, the party at times plunged as low as 13% in Holyrood election polls. When Leonard resigned as Scottish Labour leader in 2021, just 10 weeks out from a Holyrood election, polling suggested that the party was set to finish a dismal fourth.

Upon replacing Leonard as party leader, Sarwar catalysed a brief revival of Scottish Labour’s fortunes. Stemming the tide in Labour’s ailing support, Sarwar saw his party to a third-placed finish in the 2021 Holyrood elections, picking up 21.6% of the constituency vote.  

To be certain, Sarwar’s ascent has not been from total obscurity — rather unlike his millennial compatriot in Stephen Flynn. He is the son of the UK’s first Muslim MP, Mohammed Sarwar, and has served variously as an MP at Westminster, a shadow minister under Ed Miliband and even deputy leader of Scottish Labour before assuming post as leader. But only now has Sarwar truly established a UK-wide reputation. 

Under Sarwar, Scottish Labour has experienced somewhat of a renaissance, siphoning off anti-independence swing voters who are disillusioned with the Conservative’s performance at Westminster and unenthused by the Scottish leadership provided by Douglas Ross. 

One recent poll surveying Westminster voting intention found Scottish Labour had increased their fortunes to 31%, easily ahead of the Scottish Conservatives at 15% and encroaching, slowly but surely, on the SNP juggernaut. 

Foysol Choudhury MSP, Sarwar’s shadow culture minister in Holyrood, credits “Anas’ bold and innovative leadership” for the comeback. Speaking to politics.co.uk he says that Sarwar is “dedicated to innovating the way we do things so that the Scotland of the future isn’t stuck in perpetual crisis like we are under this SNP Government”.

“[Under Sarwar, Scottish Labour is] introducing concrete plans which would help to transform Scotland’s future and tackle the problems that our constituents up and down the country are sadly facing, from the NHS crisis to the cost-of-living crisis”, Choudhury added. 

Of course, the party is still someway off the dominant SNP. But Scottish Labour figures contend that Nationalism’s hardening attitude towards independence presents an opportunity ready for exploitation. 

The party is increasingly comfortable on the “national question”, in part thanks to the work of Gordon Brown’s Constitutional Commission. The publication of Gordon Brown’s report on the UK constitution saw Labour push a “third way” on Scotland and, tellingly, Sarwar was front and centre of the launch of the proposals.

Brown’s report provided for a “legally binding” replacement for the Sewel Convention, the idea that MPs should only legislate across devolved areas with express consent from Holyrood; the granting of extra foreign affairs powers to Holyrood; increased consultation on the devolution of powers for Holyrood; and a “solidarity clause” requiring each of the UK’s governments to work together. The commitment furthermore to a “senate of the nations” upper chamber, first backed by Sarwar last summer, would prove a significant constitutional innovation. 

So with the SNP planning to run the next general election as a “de facto” indyref2, Scottish Labour may feel ready to step outwith economic issues and challenge Sturgeon on her own ground.

Remaining challenges

Brown’s devolutionary zeal notwithstanding, one potential blot in Scottish Labour’s revival under Sarwar may be the socio-political furore surrounding the “gender” question. Back in December, 18 of Labour’s 22 MSPs backed the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, despite the party expressing their preference for certain rejected amendments. 

The fallout from the bill’s passage saw secretary of state for Scotland Alister Jack issue a Section 35 order to block the legislation, leaving SNP MSPs roundly outraged. The legal fight with the British government now looks likely to derail the legislation and the Scottish Labour will not emerge unscathed. Keir Starmer’s intervention in the debate, in which he expressed “concerns about the provision in Scotland, in particular the age reduction to 16”, gave reason for the old jibe that the Scottish party is merely a UK Labour “branch office” to return. Sarwar later defended Starmer for not falling into the “Tory trap”.

Another issue may be that of Brexit. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, a fact which the SNP has been at pains to exploit. Comparatively, UK Labour has embraced the language of Brexit, accepting Britain’s departure from the EU largely uncritically. Even though Starmer has argued for a step-by-step, issue-by-issue approach to the UK-EU relationship, the acceptance of Brexit potentially leaves Sarwar saddled with a position that is still deeply unpopular in Scotland.

It is issues like these that Sarwar will need to overcome if he is to turn Scottish Labour from distant second to outright frontrunner. 

But Sarwar does not hide his ambition. He has argued vociferously that Scotland was Labour’s original “red wall”, and set his sights on building back the stronghold brick-by-brick. It will naturally take some time before Labour Labour can reassert itself as the voice of the Scottish people — a position it once enjoyed unchallenged. But the renewed sense of optimism under Sarwar, with polling numbers finally pointing in the right direction, may be able to open up a vital new front for Labour come 2024. 

One small but significant manifestation of Scottish Labour’s broader optimism is that parliamentary candidate selections in Scotland are interesting again. On February 12, the seat of East Lothian will select a candidate for 2024 and the frontrunner is former cabinet minister Douglas Alexander. The returning Alexander, at least, thinks that Scottish Labour party is newly competitive.

However, Sarwar’s rise also has significance beyond his party’s electoral prospects. For in him and Flynn, Scotland has a new generation of leaders. Of course, both still have much to prove and Sturgeon’s more excitable critics would be wrong to suggest that her end is nigh. But an auld cycle in Scottish politics, whereby political secession is almost indefinitely generational, is revolving anew. 

The irresistible rise of millennials Flynn and Sarwar will now place Sturgeon’s Scottish supremacy under concerted generational strain.