All the positive and wishful thinking up to now was never going to affect the inevitable outcome in Ukraine. None of the one-sided commentary and reporting has not and is not going to either. Russia is about to achieve its goal of securing the Donbass region against further Ukrainian military attack.

The goal of autonomy first sought by the people of the Donbass in the Spring of 2014 after the insurrection in their then capital city of Kiev will be more than accomplished, full sovereignty is about to become a reality. What the people of the Donbass do then is of course up to them, however, I predict that by a vast majority they will choose to join the Russian Federation in a quickly-held referendum once the region is fully secured.

This event will be a body blow to a western world that has been telling itself fairy stories about the Kiev authorities and assorted military and militia forces winning against a Russia absolutely sure of the need to secure not only the Donbass but thereby its own security in perpetuity. What will the reaction of the western world, specifically the western political elites, be regarding these facts?

By this point in time, subsequent to the Russian intervention in Ukraine, the West has thrown everything it could at Russia to no evident avail. The big financial and economic guns have been deployed and have largely missed their target. Some of the shells have in fact boomeranged back to their gun-emplacements causing financial and economic damage at home.

Russia began its ‘special military operation’ with all its financial and economic resources presenting a sound barrier to the western attacks known to come no matter what it did. These are the sentiments expressed by its president, Vladimir Putin. Better in for a pound than a penny, you might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb. Besides, the importance for Russia that circumstances changed from the ever-worsening situation regarding NATO and the ever-increasing belligerence by Kiev, had become painfully clear.

If almost every weapon in the western armoury has been spent or is known to be metaphorically out of commission, what then?

Just perhaps, some kind of reconciliation may be a possibility. A little realpolitik rather than the hysteria and breast-beating by western powers that we have seen up to now. What other choice is there for the West? To keep on fighting, keep on supplying the Kiev authorities and its dwindling military power with weaponry? Perhaps. The incentive is clearly there for the USA and UK in particular to try to do as much damage to Russia as possible.

The goal of weakening Russia is certainly a goal these two close allies have in common and there will be enthusiasm by the hawks within their hierarchies to keep the war going even when Russia is calling for all hostilities to cease. This policy will risk being seen as a totally callous one quite uncaring that through it the deaths will continue when Russia is clearly calling for an end to them.

We all await these coming events with both hope and trepidation. As ever with geopolitical events where national interests are involved it may be a mistake to believe that the usual and best human characteristics of compromise and agreement can prevail.

We will soon see…

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