Notes to Press Release
(1) See “Specified Financial Measures”
(2) Comprised of 16,500-17,500 bbl/d light and medium oil, 35,000-37,000 bbl/d heavy oil, 3,500-4,500 bbl/d NGL and 73,000-78,000 mcf/d natural gas
(3) Annual guidance numbers are based on 2023 average pricing assumptions of: US$80.00/bbl WTI; US$22.00/bbl WCS; US$3.00/bbl MSW; $4.00/GJ AECO; and $1.3200 CAD/USD.
(4) Capital budget includes exploration and development capital, ARO, ESG initiatives, facilities land and seismic but excludes asset acquisitions and dispositions
(5) G&A noted excludes the effect of cash settled stock-based compensation
Disclosure of Oil and Gas Information
Unit Cost Calculation. For the purpose of calculating unit costs, natural gas volumes have been converted to a boe using six thousand cubic feet equal to one barrel unless otherwise stated. A boe conversion ratio of 6:1 is based upon an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. This conversion conforms with Canadian Securities Administrators’ National Instrument 51 101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”). Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.
References in this press release to “crude oil” or “oil” refers to light, medium and heavy crude oil product types as defined by NI 51-101. References to “NGL” throughout this press release comprise pentane, butane, propane, and ethane, being all NGL as defined by NI 51-101. References to “natural gas” throughout this press release refers to conventional natural gas as defined by NI 51-101.
Forward Looking Information
This press release contains certain forward-looking information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as “guidance”, “outlook”, “anticipate”, “target”, “plan”, “continue”, “intend”, “consider”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “could” or similar words suggesting future outcomes. More particularly, this press release contains statements concerning: Tamarack’s business strategy, objectives, strength and focus; future consolidation activity, organic growth and development and portfolio rationalization; future intentions with respect to return of capital, including enhanced dividends and share buybacks; oil and natural gas production levels, adjusted funds flow and free funds flow; anticipated operational results for 2023 including, but not limited to, estimated or anticipated production levels, capital expenditures, drilling plans and infrastructure initiatives; the Company’s capital program, guidance and budget for 2023 and 2023 capital program and the funding thereof; expectations regarding commodity prices; the performance characteristics of the Company’s oil and natural gas properties; decline rates and enhanced recovery, including waterflood initiatives; successful integration of the Deltastream assets; the ability of the Company to achieve drilling success consistent with management’s expectations; risk management activities, Tamarack’s commitment to ESG principles and sustainability; and the source of funding for the Company’s activities including development costs. Future dividend payments and share buybacks, if any, and the level thereof, are uncertain, as the Company’s return of capital framework and the funds available for such activities from time to time is dependent upon, among other things, free funds flow financial requirements for the Company’s operations and the execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in working capital and the timing and amount of capital expenditures, debt service requirements and other factors beyond the Company’s control. Further, the ability of Tamarack to pay dividends and buyback shares will be subject to applicable laws (including the satisfaction of the solvency test contained in applicable corporate legislation) and contractual restrictions contained in the instruments governing its indebtedness, including its credit facility.
The forward-looking statements contained in this document are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Tamarack, including those relating to: the business plan of Tamarack; the timing of and success of future drilling, development and completion activities; the geological characteristics of Tamarack’s properties; the characteristics of recently acquired assets, including the Deltastream assets; the successful integration of recently acquired assets into Tamarack’s operations; prevailing commodity prices, price volatility, price differentials and the actual prices received for the Company’s products; the availability and performance of drilling rigs, facilities, pipelines and other oilfield services; the timing of past operations and activities in the planned areas of focus; the drilling, completion and tie-in of wells being completed as planned; the performance of new and existing wells; the application of existing drilling and fracturing techniques; prevailing weather and break-up conditions; royalty regimes and exchange rates; impact of inflation on costs; the application of regulatory and licensing requirements; the continued availability of capital and skilled personnel; the ability to maintain or grow the banking facilities; the accuracy of Tamarack’s geological interpretation of its drilling and land opportunities, including the ability of seismic activity to enhance such interpretation; and Tamarack’s ability to execute its plans and strategies.
Although management considers these assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements because Tamarack can give no assurances that they may prove to be correct. By their very nature, forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties (both general and specific) that could cause actual events or outcomes to differ materially from those anticipated or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the risk that future dividend payments thereunder are reduced, suspended or cancelled; unforeseen difficulties in integrating of recently acquired assets into Tamarack’s operations; incorrect assessments of the value of benefits to be obtained from acquisitions and exploration and development programs; risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g. operational risks in development, exploration and production; and delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures); commodity prices; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, cash generation, costs and expenses, including increased operating and capital costs due to inflationary pressures; health, safety, litigation and environmental risks; access to capital; the COVID-19 pandemic; and Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Due to the nature of the oil and natural gas industry, drilling plans and operational activities may be delayed or modified to respond to market conditions, results of past operations, regulatory approvals or availability of services causing results to be delayed. Please refer to the annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2021 and the management’s discussion and analysis for the period ended September 30, 2022 (the “MD&A”) for additional risk factors relating to Tamarack, which can be accessed either on Tamarack’s website at www.tamarackvalley.ca or under the Company’s profile on www.sedar.com. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law. The forward-looking statements contained herein are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
This press release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI”) about generating sustainable long-term growth in free funds flow, dividends and share buybacks, prospective results of operations and production, weightings, operating costs, 2023 capital budget and expenditures, decline rates, balance sheet strength, adjusted funds flow and free funds flow, net debt, debt repayments, total returns and components thereof, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. FOFI contained in this document was approved by management as of the date of this document and was provided for the purpose of providing further information about Tamarack’s future business operations. Tamarack and its management believe that FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s best estimates and judgments, and represent, to the best of management’s knowledge and opinion, the Company’s expected course of action. However, because this information is highly subjective, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Tamarack disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI contained in this document, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required pursuant to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this document should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein. Changes in forecast commodity prices, differences in the timing of capital expenditures, and variances in average production estimates can have a significant impact on the key performance measures included in Tamarack’s guidance. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from these estimates.
Specified Financial Measures
This press release includes various specified financial measures, including non-IFRS financial measures, non-IFRS financial ratios and capital management measures as further described herein. These measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and, therefore, may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures by other companies.
“Adjusted funds flow (capital management measure)” is calculated by taking cash-flow from operating activities, on a periodic basis, deducting current income taxes and adding back changes in non-cash working capital, expenditures on decommissioning obligations and transaction costs since Tamarack believes the timing of collection, payment or incurrence of these items is variable. While current income taxes will not be paid until Q1/23, management believes adjusting for estimated current income taxes in the period incurred is a better indication of the adjusted funds generated by the Company. Expenditures on decommissioning obligations may vary from period to period depending on capital programs and the maturity of the Company’s operating areas. Expenditures on decommissioning obligations are managed through the capital budgeting process which considers available adjusted funds flow. Tamarack uses adjusted funds flow as a key measure to demonstrate the Company’s ability to generate funds to repay debt and fund future capital investment. Adjusted funds flow per share is calculated using the same weighted average basic and diluted shares that are used in calculating income per share.
“Excess funds flow (capital management measure)“ is calculated by taking free funds flow and subtracting base dividends, mandatory amortization payments on the deferred acquisition notes or term loan and acquisitions costs and adding disposition proceeds. Management believes that excess funds flow provides a useful measure to determine Tamarack’s ability to deliver shareholder returns and to manage the long-term value of the business.
“Free funds flow (capital management measure)“ (previously referred to as “free adjusted funds flow”) is calculated by taking adjusted funds flow and subtracting capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions and dispositions. Management believes that free funds flow provides a useful measure to determine Tamarack’s ability to improve returns and to manage the long-term value of the business.
“Free funds flow breakeven (capital management measure)“ (previously referred to as “free adjusted funds flow breakeven”) is determined by calculating the minimum WTI price in US/bbl required to generate free funds flow equal to zero, sustaining current production levels and all other variables held constant. Management believes that free funds flow breakeven provides a useful measure to establish corporate financial sustainability.
“Operating netback (non-IFRS financial measure or ratio)” is calculated as total petroleum and natural gas sales, including realized gains and losses on commodity and foreign exchange derivative contracts, less royalties, net production expenses and transportation expense (non-IFRS financial measure). This metrics can also be calculated on a per boe basis (non-IFRS financial ratio). Management considers operating netback an important measure to evaluate Tamarack’s operational performance, as it demonstrates field level profitability relative to current commodity prices. See the MD&A for a detailed calculation and reconciliation of operating netback per boe to the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS.
“Net debt (capital management measure)” is calculated as credit facilities plus senior unsecured notes, plus working capital surplus or deficit, plus other liability, including the fair value of cross-currency swaps plus government loans, less notes receivable and excluding the fair value of financial instruments, decommissioning obligations, lease liabilities and the cash award incentive plan liability.
“Net debt to quarterly annualized adjusted funds flow (capital management measure)” is calculated as estimated period end net debt divided by the annualized adjusted funds flow for the preceding quarter (multiplied by 4 for annualization).
Please refer to the MD&A for additional information relating to specified financial measures including non-IFRS financial measures, non-IFRS financial ratios and capital management measures. The MD&A can be accessed either on Tamarack’s website at www.tamarackvalley.ca or under the Company’s profile on www.sedar.com.
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