House OKs debt ceiling bill to avoid default, sends Biden-McCarthy deal to Senate

Veering away from a default crisis, the House approved a debt ceiling and budget cuts package on late May 31, as President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy assembled a bipartisan coalition of centrist Democrats and Republicans against fierce conservative blowback and progressive dissent.

The hard-fought deal pleased few, but lawmakers assessed it was better than the alternative— a devastating economic upheaval if Congress failed to act. Tensions ran high throughout the day as hard-right Republicans refused the deal, while Democrats said “extremist” GOP views were risking a debt default as soon as next week.

With an overwhelming House vote, 314-117, the bill now heads to the Senate with passage expected by week’s end.

Mr. McCarthy insisted his party was working to “give America hope” as he launched into a late evening speech extolling the bill’s budget cuts, which he said were needed to curb Washington’s “runaway spending.”

Amid deep discontent from Republicans who said the spending restrictions did not go far enough, Mr. McCarthy said it is only a “first step.”

The package makes some inroads in curbing the nation’s debt as Republicans demanded, without rolling back Trump-era tax breaks as Mr. Biden wanted. To pass it, Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy counted on support from the political center, a rarity in divided Washington.

In a statement released after the vote, Mr. Biden said: “I have been clear that the only path forward is a bipartisan compromise that can earn the support of both parties. This agreement meets that test.”

He called the vote “good news for the American people and the American economy.”

Mr. Biden had sent top White House officials to the Capitol and called lawmakers directly to shore up backing. Mr. McCarthy worked to sell sceptical fellow Republicans, even fending off challenges to his leadership, in the rush to avert a potentially disastrous U.S. default.

Swift passage later in the week by the Senate would ensure government checks will continue to go out to Social Security recipients, veterans and others and would prevent financial upheaval at home and abroad. Next Monday is when the Treasury has said the U.S. would run short of money to pay its debts.

Overall, the 99-page bill restricts spending for the next two years, suspends the debt ceiling into January 2025 and changes some policies, including imposing new work requirements for older Americans receiving food aid and greenlighting an Appalachian natural gas line that many Democrats oppose.

It bolsters funds for defense and veterans, and guts new money for Internal Revenue Service agents.

Raising the nation’s debt limit, now $31 trillion, ensures Treasury can borrow to pay already incurred U.S. debts.

Top GOP deal negotiator Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana said Republicans were fighting for budget cuts after the past years of extra spending, first during the COVID-19 crisis and later with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, with its historic investment to fight climate change paid for with revenues elsewhere.

But Republican Rep. Chip Roy, a member of the Freedom Caucus helping to lead the opposition, said, “My beef is that you cut a deal that shouldn’t have been cut.”

For weeks negotiators laboured late into the night to strike the deal with the White House, and for days Mr. McCarthy has worked to build support among sceptics. At one point, aides wheeled in pizza at the Capitol the night before the vote as he walked Republicans through the details, fielded questions and encouraged them not to lose sight of the bill’s budget savings.

The Speaker faced a tough crowd. Cheered on by conservative senators and outside groups, the hard-right House Freedom Caucus lambasted the compromise as falling well short of the needed spending cuts, and they vowed to try to halt passage.

A much larger conservative faction, the Republican Study Committee, declined to take a position. Even rank-and-file centrist conservatives were unsure, leaving Mr. McCarthy searching for votes from his slim Republican majority.

Ominously, the conservatives warned of possibly trying to oust Mr. McCarthy over the compromise.

One influential Republican, former President Donald Trump, held his fire: “It is what it is,” he said of the deal in an interview with Iowa radio host Simon Conway.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said it was up to Mr. McCarthy to turn out Republican votes in the 435-member House, where 218 votes are needed for approval.

As the tally faltered on an afternoon procedural vote, Mr. Jeffries stood silently and raised his green voting card, signalling that the Democrats would fill in the gap to ensure passage. They did, advancing the bill that hard-right Republicans, many from the Freedom Caucus, refused to back.

“Once again, House Democrats to the rescue to avoid a dangerous default,” said Mr. Jeffries, D-N.Y.

“What does that say about this extreme MAGA Republican majority?” he said about the party aligned with Mr. Trump’s ”Make America Great Again” political movement.

Then, on the final vote hours later, Democrats again ensured passage, leading the tally as 71 Republicans bucked their majority and voted against it.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the spending restrictions in the package would reduce deficits by $1.5 trillion over the decade, a top goal for the Republicans trying to curb the debt load.

In a surprise that complicated Republicans’ support, however, the CBO said their drive to impose work requirements on older Americans receiving food stamps would end up boosting spending by $2.1 billion over the time period. That’s because the final deal exempts veterans and homeless people, expanding the food stamp rolls by 78,000 people monthly, the CBO said.

Liberal discontent, though, ran strong as nearly four dozen Democrats also broke away, decrying the new work requirements for older Americans, those 50-54, in the food aid program.

Some Democrats were also incensed that the White House negotiated into the deal changes to the landmark National Environmental Policy Act and approval of the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline natural gas project. Energy development is important to Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., but many others oppose it as unhelpful in fighting climate change.

On Wall Street, stock prices were down.

In the Senate, Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell are working for passage by week’s end.

Mr. Schumer warned there is ”no room for error.”

Senators, who have remained largely on the sidelines during much of the negotiations, are insisting on amendments to reshape the package. But making any changes at this stage seemed unlikely with so little time to spare before Monday’s deadline.

Source link

#House #OKs #debt #ceiling #bill #avoid #default #sends #BidenMcCarthy #deal #Senate

Explained | What is the stalemate over the U.S. debt ceiling and what happens if the government defaults?

The story so far: United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen notified Congress last week that the country could default on its debt as early as June 1, if the Republican-dominated House of Representatives and President Joe Biden’s White House did not reach a consensus to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. A default on its debt, something that has never happened before, could send shockwaves in global financial markets, increase borrowing costs for the U.S. and impact the dollar’s reputation as a reserve currency.

What is the U.S. debt ceiling?

When the federal government spends more than it brings in, in terms of taxes and other revenue, it runs up a budget deficit. Since 2001, this deficit has averaged $1 trillion annually. It then has to borrow money to meet its financial obligations, accruing debt. The government borrows tby creating and selling debt securities like bonds to U.S. investors and companies, banks, pension funds, foreign investors and countries. The largest part of these are owned by the U.S. federal government itself, which keeps the money for social security schemes, medicare, federal pensions and so on.

While the administration and Congress decide on taxation and spending, the collection of taxes and the borrowing of funds is done by U.S. Treasury Department. In 1917, Congress passed the Second Liberty Bond Act, to allow then-President Woodrow Wilson to take out funds for the First World War without waiting for the approvals of absent Congress lawmakers. However, curtailing the President’s spending capacity,the Congress created a limit on borrowing ($11.5 billion at the time), thus creating a debt ceiling that could only be raised by approval of the Congress (House and Senate).

The debt ceiling started to take its present-day form in 1939, when separate borrowing caps for bonds were consolidated into one debt ceiling, then set at $45 billion. The U.S. government has hit or come close to hitting the debt ceiling multiple times.According to Treasury Department figures, Congress has acted 78 separate times since 1960 either to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic Presidents. The last such change was in 2021.

While the government continues to receive taxation revenue after hitting the debt ceiling, it cannot borrow any more to pay its existing bills. The U.S. hit its current debt limit of $31.4 trillion on January 19 this year, but the Treasury activated the “extraordinary measures” mechanism to allow the government to meetits obligations. These extraordinary measures are accounting adjustments within several government accounts that temporarily reduce the amount of U.S. Treasury securities issued to them. These actions include suspending new investments or redeeming existing investments early.

However, if the debt ceiling is not raised once the government exhausts extraordinary measures and runs out of cash, the U.S. would be unable to pay its debt-holders, resulting in a default.

Why have debt ceiling standoffs become a recurring issue?

For starters, the debt ceiling is not a “forward-looking” budgeting instrument, i.e. it does not reveal what potentially ideal levels of spending look like. First, Congress approves programmes for which it does not have the entire funding, and then there’s a limit on how much the Treasury can borrow to pay for these already approved programmes. Which is why economists have called it a “strange” instrument. Take this analogy, for instance: first Congress approves $100 of spending, $70 comes in from taxes but the cap on what the government can borrow to pay for the rest is fixed at a mere $15.

Only one other country apart from the U.S. has a set ceiling on borrowing— Denmark. However, Denmark’s debt ceiling is set several times higher than the country spends; in 2021, the debt of Denmark’s central government was just 14% of its ceiling, notes the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Another reason why disagreements overthe debt limit happen often, almost annually since 2011, is that it has become a political bargaining chip, as any raise or suspension has to be approved by Congress. As American politics becomes increasingly polarised, the Opposition has often used the debt limit as a way of getting budgetary and other legislative concessions. Sometimes, debt rate hikes have also been tied to the passing of certain bipartisan legislations. Reuters points out that Congress has often imposed conditions on these debt-ceiling hikes, or paired them with other tax and spending activity.

In 1957, Congress delayed a debt-ceiling hike to pressure the Pentagon to operate more efficiently, and in the early 70s, linked increases to expanded Social Security benefits. In 2018 and 2019, debt-ceiling was tied with broader bipartisan spending packages. However, debt ceiling decisions have not always been smooth, with the U.S. coming dangerously close to defaulting on its debt in 2011 when the Republicans and the Barack Obama administration could not reach an agreement t till the last minute. This was the first and the last time that rating firm S&P downgraded America’s prized ‘AAA’ credit ratings. The political gridlock led to a government shutdown, sent financial markets reeling, and caused a huge stock sell-off.

Observers have called the current impasse between House Republicans and the Biden administration even messier than in 2011. The Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy-led House passed a Bill that pairs a $4.8 trillion in spending cuts with an increase in the debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. However, Mr. Biden said that he wants a clean debt-ceiling height and won’t negotiate any kind of spending cuts, resulting in the current deadlock.

Treasury Secretary Ms. Yellen and other economists suggest doing away with the debt ceiling, which once served a purpose but does not contribute to fiscal discipline anymore and leads to frequent political grandstanding, often at the risk of national and global financial stability.

What will happen if the U.S. defaults?

Analysts say there is no set post-default scenario since the U.S. has never actually defaulted on its debt before. They have warned, however, of a “catastrophic” situation for American and global financial markets. The New York Times notes that after the extraordinary measures get exhausted and cash with the treasury runs out, the government would be unable to pay its bills including military salaries, benefits to retirees, and interest and other payments it owes to bondholders. If the government cannot make interest payments to domestic and foreign investors who own its debt securities, it could plunge the globe into a financial crisis, say Wall Street experts.

The CFR points out that the “unthinkable” event of a U.S. default could lead to another downgrade of U.S. creditworthiness by agencies, large-scale job losses, weakening of the dollar, stock sell-offs, and a rise in the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government. It would also increase the national debt, in turn causing widespread interest rate hikes for business owners, mortgages, and other sectors. A drop in U.S. consumer confidence would translate to shocks in the financial market, tipping the economy into recession.

The creditworthiness or the confidence in the repayment ability of U.S. treasury securities has long strengthened demand for U.S. dollars and made it the world’s reserve currency, with more than half of the world’s foreign currency reserves held in U.S. dollars. A loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, resulting from default or even the uncertainty around it, could force investors to sell U.S. Treasury bonds, thus weakening the dollar. A sudden decrease in the currency’s value could domino across treasury markets as the value of these reserves drops.

What are the Republicans demanding in their package in exchange for a debt ceiling hike?

The legislation passed by the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives would suspend the U.S. debt limit till March 31, 2024, or until it increases by another $1.5 trillion, whichever comes first. The Bill would cut a wide range of government spending back to last year’s levels, amounting to a decrease of $4.8 trillion or about 9%. As per the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the plan could save roughly $3.2 trillion over the coming years and reduce the U.S. government’s borrowing costs by $547 billion over a period of 10 years. However, Mr. Biden is not willing to negotiate spending cuts affecting his plans to cancel student debt, or those reducing healthcare for the poor, tax revenue, or green initiatives, among other things.

While it is not certain how this would impact government operations, the Department of Transportation said that it would shut down 375 air-traffic control towers (affecting jobs) and the Department of Agriculture indicated that it could make it tougher for almost a million Americans to access federal food aid.

The legislation plans to cancel healthcare, infrastructure, rental aid and other funds remaining unspent from the $5.2 trillion approved by Congress in the last three years for COVID-19 relief. It would reverse President Biden’s effort to cancel up to $10,000 of student debt for some borrowers and hamper another plan to peg debt repayment to borrower income levels. It also aims to reverse legislation increasing the budget for the Internal Revenue Service, which was to be used for hiring more employees and technological advancements to augment tax revenue.

The Republican Bill would also tighten work requirements for participants in some government poverty alleviation programmes. For example, adults up to age 56 not having children receive health insurance through the Medicaid program covering low-income individuals. They would have to work at least 80 hours a month to take part in job training or community service.

While Mr. Biden has not met with Republican leaders including Mr. McCarthy since February, with the Treasury Secretary’s June 1 warning, the White House has called a meeting with top Congress leaders of both parties on May 9, to discuss the debt-ceiling issue.

​​

Source link

#Explained #stalemate #debt #ceiling #government #defaults