Tag: Ukraine

Zelensky’s A-team: Who is who among Ukraine’s new army commanders

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky labelled it a “reset” while others have called it a “shake-up”: FRANCE 24 takes a look at the new team of army commanders tasked with helping Ukraine rebuild military momentum and ultimately win the war against Russia.

After weeks of speculation, Zelensky announced he was replacing popular military chief Valery Zaluzhny earlier this month while also unveiling a complete reshuffle of his top command.

To find out more about Zelensky’s new men, FRANCE 24 spoke to Ryhor Nizhnikau, a Ukraine specialist and senior research fellow at the Russia, the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood and Eurasia research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Oleksandr Syrsky, commander-in-chief: ‘The Snow Leopard’ or ‘the Butcher’

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, 58, is hardly a new face to Ukrainians. Syrsky is a career military man who led Ukrainian troops against the Russia-backed separatist revolt in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014, earning him the nickname, “Snow Leopard”.

Until his appointment as the army’s new commander, Syrsky – whose leadership style is described as traditionalist and in line with his Soviet army training – served as the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces. He is credited with fighting off the Russians around Kyiv at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and for masterminding one of Ukraine’s most important victories in the war so far: the counteroffensive and liberation of the eastern Kharkiv region.

But the war has also cast something of a shadow over Syrsky’s name, earning him the much less flattering nickname “the Butcher”. According to Politico, this stems from Ukraine’s dire – and very deadly – defeat in the small but key city of Bakhmut which became known as the “meat grinder” and whose defence Syrsky oversaw.

According to Nizhnikau, Syrsky has a dual reputation. While he is viewed as a respected commander within the army, the general public has had a harder time swallowing the human losses he has been blamed for.

“While the polls show that [his predecessor], Zaluzhny, had 94 percent of the public’s trust, the number for Syrsky is something like 40 percent,” he explained.

One of Syrsky’s biggest challenges, Nizhnikau notes, will be to not only fill Zaluzhny’s boots, but to stop being compared to him.

Read moreUkraine’s Zelensky replaces top general Zaluzhny with Syrsky in dramatic military shakeup

Oleksandr Pavliuk, commander of armed forces: The model soldier

Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, 53, is Ukraine’s former deputy defence minister and was handpicked by Syrsky himself. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda, Syrsky said Pavliuk – who in the past two years has served as Syrsky’s deputy – was the only name he ever considered for the position.

Pavliuk fought on the front line in Donetsk in 2014. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, he was in charge of defending the eastern regions and later the defence of Kyiv. He is a decorated “Hero of Ukraine” soldier.

Nizhnikau said Pavliuk is a very respected model soldier whose only drawback is that he temporarily veered into the political world by becoming a deputy minister in early 2023 and could be viewed as having a foot both in the Zelensky administration and in the army.

Yurii Sodol, commander of the joint forces: What happened in Mariupol?

Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol, 53, has also been handed the “Hero of Ukraine” award and is the former head of Ukraine’s marine corps. Like many of the others, he brings with him frontline experience from 2014 and is described by Nizhnikau as a “solid soldier”.

Although very little is known about Sodol – he has quite successfully managed to stay out of the public eye – questions remain over his role in the defence of Mariupol, of which he was originally in charge. As Mariupol came under siege, the captain of the Azov regiment acted as de-facto commander. According to Nizhnikau, although Sodol has in no way been accused of any wrongdoing, his and others’ role in this tragedy is “heavily discussed in Ukraine”. 

Documents that will be declassified after the war may very well show he was just following orders, Nizhnikau said.

He added that Sodol has proven to be an effective and modern army commander and is well known for the modernisation of the Ukrainian marine corps in line with NATO standards.

Ihor Plahuta, commander of territorial defence forces: The one with the missing biography

Major General Ihor Plahuta, 56, has been described by Ukrainska Pravda as “the most mysterious and ambiguous appointment” in Zelensky’s new team of commanders, with no trace of a past prior to 2005.

Plahuta’s documented experience with the army includes serving as commander for Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade, the army’s 169th Training Centre, and the Southern Territorial Command of the Internal Troops of the interior ministry. More recently, he was the deputy commander of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, which is a formation of Ukrainian ground troops fighting the Russian invasion.

Nizhnikau said Plahuta is by far the most politically risky appointment, not least because he – during his time with the interior ministry’s internal troops – was part of the force that stormed the Euromaidan protests back in 2014.   

But Nizhnikau said this does not seem to have counted against him so far. The Euromaidan experience does not necessarily discredit Plahuta because he was “quite reasonable – trying to negotiate with the protesters and avoiding unnecessary clashes – so most people seem to think it’s not that big of a deal”.

There are others in Zelensky’s government who were also on the “wrong” – that is, the pro-Russian – side of the Euromaidan protests, Nizhnikau noted.

Ihor Skybyuk, commander of air assault forces

Brigadier General Ihor Skybyuk, 48, is the youngest of the pack, and takes on his new role after serving as chief of staff and deputy commander of Ukraine’s air assault forces. Prior to that, he served as commander of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, known as the “Firefighters”, which took part in the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Ukrainska Pravda cites official reports saying that it was thanks to Skybyuk’s “decisive and timely” actions that the eastern Ukrainian city of Izium was liberated. Skybyuk earned the “Hero of Ukraine” title for his efforts.

The newspaper described him as a balanced and calm leader who never shouts at his subordinates. 

Nizhnikau also cited Skybyuk’s reputation for bravery, adding that the Firefighters have “always been sent to the most difficult parts of the front and, at times, had to stop Russian offenses in open fields”.

Nizhnikau said the new military command seems to be a step in the right direction as Ukraine struggles to regain momentum on the ground after months of impasse, calling the new appointments generally positive “and, in some cases, very positive”. 

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The Kremlin puts Baltic leaders on ‘wanted’ list for challenging its worldview

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The Kremlin placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and other Baltic officials on a list of wanted criminals on Monday in a move aimed at preserving Russia’s view of its glorious past from present-day challenges. The Kremlin said Kallas was put on the list for her efforts to remove WWII-era monuments to Soviet soldiers, moves seen by Moscow as unlawful and “an insult to history”.

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Russia has a track record of putting foreign officials on wanted lists, but this latest move makes Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas the first foreign head of government to be sought by Russian police. Estonian Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys are also on the list, along with dozens of other Baltic and Polish politicians.

Kallas and Peterkop made the list because of their efforts to remove monuments to Soviet soldiers who served in World War II, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was blunt, saying the move was a response to those who have taken “hostile action toward historic memory and our country”.

A Russian security source told the TASS state news agency that the Kremlin is seeking to prosecute Kallas and Peterkop for the “destruction and defacement of monuments [honouring] Soviet soldiers” along with the Lithuanian minister of culture, Simonas Kairys.

“These wanted notices are Russia’s way of saying: ‘You come under Russian legislation and we consider you still, more or less, part of the Russian Empire,’” says historian Cécile Vaissié, professor of Russian and Soviet studies at Rennes-ll University.

“It’s simply provocation and an insult to an independent, autonomous country.”

Moscow has issued such wanted notices in the past, for instance, against exiled writer Boris Akunin over his condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Akunin was accused of “terrorism” and placed on the Kremlin’s list of “foreign agents”.

The Kremlin’s list is long indeed.

Meta spokesman and Ukrainian farmer on the list

More than 96,000 people – including over 31,000 Russians and nearly 4,000 Ukrainians – are on a Russian wanted list, according to the independent Russian news outlet Mediazona, which published a compilation of various Russian interior ministry databases on Monday.

The range of people targeted is wide. The list includes Andy Stone, spokesman for Meta (parent company of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram), accused of “supporting terrorism”. The Polish president of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Piotr Hofmanski, is also on the list. His name was added after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023 for the Russian president’s role in the deportation of Ukrainian children.

Given the war in Ukraine, it’s no surprise that the majority of foreigners targeted by Russian law enforcement agencies are Ukrainians. Mediazona has identified at least 176 people “prosecuted in absentia” for various reasons: participation in the war, links with Ukrainian authorities, public statements. The list includes the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zaluzhny, and even a Ukrainian farmer who supported Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and made unflattering remarks about Putin.

Some 59 Latvian MPs – two-thirds of the parliament – are also under investigation after voting in May 2022 to withdraw from an agreement with Russia on the preservation of Soviet memorials. The parliamentary vote, taken a few months after the start of the war in Ukraine, was followed by the demolition of a Soviet-era monument in the capital, Riga.

“All these wanted notices give the impression of a catch-all approach, a hodge-podge of people supposedly hostile to Russia and against whom it is taking action,” notes Marie Dumoulin, programme director at the European Council for International Relations think tank.

Only one version of history

For Dumoulin, there is “no doubt that Russian prosecutors can support their contentions for each of these people”. But she has reservations about Kaja Kallas: “The case of the Estonian prime minister seems to me to be legally a little shaky: to single out foreign public figures on the basis of their discourse on history, that’s quite a reach.”

The prime minister, a fierce critic of Russia who has supported the removal of Soviet monuments in recent years, doesn’t seem to be fazed by her new status in Russia, dismissing the move as a “familiar scare tactic” by Moscow.

Posting on X, formerly Twitter, she said: “The Kremlin now hopes this move will help to silence me and others – but it won’t. The opposite.”


The threats of prosecution are largely symbolic, since they have little chance of leading to an arrest. But they are representative of Moscow’s continuing battle with the former Soviet countries of Eastern Europe over the historical narrative.

Above all, Vaissié explains, Moscow “aims to reaffirm the existence of a ‘Russian world’ (a concept born after the collapse of the Soviet Union to encompass the entire Russian-speaking diaspora outside Russia) and of a Russia at the centre of an empire and overseeing the lives of its citizens”.

“Since the 1990s, the Kremlin has maintained a deliberate confusion between Russian speakers, Russians, Russian citizens, former citizens of the USSR and former citizens of the Empire,” she said.

Dumoulin cited Moscow’s “long-standing hard line with the Baltic States on the question of memory”, adding that tensions ratcheted up a notch after the 2020 reform of Russia’s constitution.

“The historical memory of the Russian state was then enshrined in the constitution,” she said. “And from that moment on, there was a stiffening of internal attitudes, notably with the dissolution of the NGO Memorial (which, among other things, was the guardian of the memory of the Gulag).”

“It’s an approach in which there is only one possible historical discourse,” she said. “It’s not good to be a historian in Russia today.”

This article is a translation of the original in French.



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Abandoned at sea, part 1: Syrian crew stranded for two years at Libyan port

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Our team has obtained rare footage from sailors abandoned by their employers years ago, leaving them far from their homes in ports or open water. During this three-month investigation, we looked at official documents and contracts provided by crewmembers as well as open-source data to trace the navigation history of these dilapidated vessels before their abandonment. The first part of this special edition, produced in partnership with independent Syrian investigators SIRAJ, reveals a complex set-up of shell companies used by a group of Syrian-Romanian ship owners to evade legal disputes and Western sanctions.

When the East Express, a 97-metre general cargo ship flying the flag of Togo, docked in the Libyan port of Misrata on January 18, 2022, its crew thought they would offload their cargo of sugar and move on. But the port authorities declared the sugar unfit for consumption and impounded the ship. The crew have been there ever since -– two years and counting.

This legal impediment prevented the delivery of the sugar to its Libyan purchaser, eventually leading the ship’s registered owner, Mina Shipping Ltd., to  abandon the vessel with its 12-member crew still on board: ten Syrians, one Egyptian and one Indian. 

‘We don’t have any food, or water, or wages’

The East Express is capable of carrying more than 5,000 tons of goods, fuel, and ballast. Ammar Sheikha, one of the Syrian sailors stranded on the East Express, explains:

For me, ‘abandonment’ means asking for food, drinks and daily necessities, and not being able to get them from the ship’s owners and manager.

He declared in a video that he sent us in September 2023 that the crew had been “completely abandoned” by the company. “We have no food, no water, and no salaries,” he told us. 

The crew contacted ITF Seafarers, a transport workers’ union that provides assistance to the crews of abandoned ships, but say they did not hear back for months.

Ian Ralby, an expert in international maritime law, explains what abandonment is:

Abandonment is when a vessel owner literally abandons the claims to a vessel. It can mean that the crew is left without anyone who actually has legal responsibility for ensuring that they get the fuel, the food, the water and all the services that they need.

With no fuel or electricity, life on board quickly became unbearable. Sheikha told us:

We began to suffer from a lack of supplies and money … We spend most of our time sleeping or on our mobile phones. This is our only distraction. We talk to our families and friends until the day is over.

The crew have not been paid in 12 months. They believe that staying on board is the only way they’ll get their money. At one point, Sheikha says, the company owed him $17,000. When it arrived in Misrata, the East Express flew the flag of Togo, West Africa. Publicly available maritime registries like Marine Traffic and EQUASIS indicate that it was owned by Romania-based Mina Shipping Ltd.

When we contacted Mina Shipping at the Romanian number that appeared on the sailors’ contracts, a woman who said she was a former employee told us: “Mina Shipping is an offshore company whose owner died years ago.” 

The ship’s captain told us that the owner of Mina Shipping is a man named Samir Fahel, from Tartus, Syria.

Posts shared by his family show that Mr. Fahel died in February 2023. 

A former life under a different name

Fahel regularly posted pictures of ships. One in particular caught our attention: the Nadalina.


In this photo posted by Mina Shipping owner Samir Fahel, the Nadalina is seen after a refit at a ship repair yard in the port of Navodari, Romania, in 2019. © Photo shared on Samir Fahel’s Facebook page in 2016.

We looked up the Nadalina using its IMO number (every ship has a unique identification number issued by the International Maritime Organization). It turns out that the Nadalina is the same ship as the East Express, abandoned in Misrata. 

Ship owners and operators regularly change not only their names, but also the countries in which they are registered as well as the companies that manage and own them. Industry analysts say the complex ownership structure makes it easier for ship owners and operators to walk away when a ship encounters legal or financial problems. “It’s sometimes better to abandon an asset than to retain it and have the liability for it,” says Ralby.

The East Express (IMO number 8215754) has had three different names in the last seven years.
The East Express (IMO number 8215754) has had three different names in the last seven years. © Ammar Sheikha (left), Marine Traffic / Babur Haluluport (center/right ).

Tracking the ‘Nadalina’: history of sanctions violations

Ships must broadcast regular signals intended to ensure the safety of navigational traffic, and sites such as MarineTraffic pick up these signals to plot their locations. FRANCE 24 used the data – nearly 3,000 daily locations over eight years – to track the Nadalina’s movements from 2016 to 2023.

The data shows that the ship made regular trips in the Mediterranean, including to Tunisia, Libya and the Russian-managed port of Tartus in Syria and through Turkey to the Black Sea, coming and going from the Romanian port of Constanta.

The Nadalina’s route in the Mediterranean between 2016 and 2023 shows that it made regular visits to the Russian-managed Syrian port of Tartus.
The Nadalina’s route in the Mediterranean between 2016 and 2023 shows that it made regular visits to the Russian-managed Syrian port of Tartus. © FRANCE 24 Observers

It also reveals that the Nadalina made trips to the so-called “closed ports” of the Crimean Peninsula.

The Nadalina’s route in the Black Sea between 2016 and 2019 shows that it made regular visits to the so-called
The Nadalina’s route in the Black Sea between 2016 and 2019 shows that it made regular visits to the so-called “closed” ports of the Crimean peninsula placed under international sanctions following Russia’s invasion of the Ukrainian territory in 2014. © FRANCE 24 Observers

Ukraine banned international cargo carriers from docking at Crimean ports after Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula in 2014. The United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on ships visiting Crimea.

Ukrainian and international media outlets documented at least 10 visits by the Nadalina to sanctioned Crimean ports between 2015 and 2019. 

“We found a group of ships that regularly visited the closed ports in Crimea,” says Kateryna Yaresko, an online investigator with the Myrotvets Center’s Seakrime project who has extensively worked on the Nadalina question. “They were connected to a group of Romanian-Syrian businessmen based in Constanta, Romania. This group was the worst offender.”

With her team, she obtained photographs showing the Nadalina docked illegally in Crimean ports such as Sevastopol and Feodosia between 2015 and 2019, and being loaded with cargoes of scrap metal or grain.

The Nadalina docked at the port of Sevastopol in Crimea on December 27, 2018 and was loaded with a cargo of scrap metal.
The Nadalina docked at the port of Sevastopol in Crimea on December 27, 2018 and was loaded with a cargo of scrap metal. © Seakrime, Myrotvorets Center

The Ukrainian investigators reported that the Nadalina was part of a group of ships operated by a company called Bia Shipping Co.

A shipping registry in 2015 gave Bia Shipping’s contact info as addresses at “joharshipping.ro”.

While “joharshipping.ro” is no longer online, we recovered versions of the site via an internet archive. The archived site belonged to a company called Johar Shipping and listed at least five of the ships operated by Bia Shipping Company. 


© France 24 Observers

Both this site and another Johar Shipping Co. archived site called “johar.ro” listed a man called “Adnan Hassan” as managing director, and “Johar Hassan” as in charge of general operations. 


© FRANCE 24 Observers

We found Adnan Hassan’s social media accounts. One clip he shared on Facebook shows him relaxing on board an 18-metre yacht with Johar Hassan, his brother. Photos also showed him with Samir Fahel.

This photo posted on the Facebook account of Samir Fahel in 2017 shows him in the company of Adnan Hassan.
This photo posted on the Facebook account of Samir Fahel in 2017 shows him in the company of Adnan Hassan. © Photo shareb on Samir Fahel’s Facebook page on 2017

The families respond

We repeatedly tried to contact the companies associated with the Hassan brothers and Fahel, using all the email addresses and phone numbers that we were able to find. 

A member of Fahel’s family told us that after his death, the family was still responsible for the East Express. She said a family member was assigned to manage the ship and assured us he would give an interview for our investigation. She gave us an email address that she said was for the family company Mina Shipping, but neither she nor the family responded to subsequent requests.

Adnan Hassan confirmed to us in a series of telephone interviews that he and his brother Johar had owned Johar Shipping Co. He said their company had acted as an agent for the ship on at least one occasion during the 2015 to 2019 period when it was known as the Nadalina and visited the closed ports of Crimea. He said they did not follow politics and were unaware that the Crimean ports were sanctioned, and that the visits to Crimea by the Nadalina and other ships they handled stopped after Romanian authorities investigated Johar Shipping. 

The Romanian Foreign Ministry confirmed having investigated the Nadalina’s visits to Crimea. “A check was performed on the financial transactions of companies connected to this ship,” they wrote. “The competent authorities concluded that there was not enough evidence that said payments constituted breaches of the prohibition.” They said they had notified “the economic operators involved of the risks of infringing the restrictive measures on the illegal annexation of Crimea”, and that Romania “strongly condemns” Russia’s “war of aggression against Ukraine”. 

Regarding the ship’s current status as the East Express and the plight of its crew in Libya, Adnan Hassan said the ship was owned by Samir Fahel and Mina Shipping. He said he was a friend of Fahel’s, but had no business relationship with him or Mina Shipping. He said the family contacted him seven months after Fahel’s death. “I wanted to be of help to his family to help them get the ship released,” he told us. “But I learned that the ship’s debts were greater than its value … I told the crew: ‘I will pay your wages only if the ship leaves the port, and I can examine it. That’s when you’ll get paid. Something to help you out.’”

Four crew members repatriated; seven remain on board 

The crew told us they had received small payments from Fahel before his death but had never received their full salaries. 

After FRANCE 24 contacted the ITF Seafarers union to inquire about the fate of the East Express crew, Sheikha told us the union agreed to send some money to cover his flight back to Syria. He sent us a message from the airport: “I can’t believe I’m on the way back home to my family after two years of suffering – without any savings. It’s tragic!” 

As of publication, Sheikha and three of his companions have returned to Syria, while seven of their companions remain on board the ship.


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House speaker rejects Ukraine aid package as senators grind through votes

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House Speaker Mike Johnson late Monday sharply criticised a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other countries, casting serious doubts about the future of the package just as Senate leaders were slowly muscling it ahead in hopes of sending a message that the US remains committed to its allies.

 

The Republican speaker said the package lacked border security provisions, calling it “silent on the most pressing issue facing our country.” It was the latest — and potentially most consequential — sign of opposition to the Ukraine aid from conservatives who have for months demanded that border security policy be included in the package, only to last week reject a bipartisan proposal intended to curb the number of illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border

“Now, in the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.”

A determined group of Republican senators was also trying Monday with a marathon set of speeches to slow the Senate from passing the package. The mounting opposition was just the latest example of how the Republican Party’s stance on foreign affairs is being transformed under the influence of Donald Trump, the likely Republican presidential nominee.

Even if the package passes the Senate, as is expected, it faces an uncertain future in the House, where Republicans are more firmly aligned with Trump and deeply skeptical of continuing to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia.

As Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and 17 other GOP senators have provided the votes to ensure the foreign aid package stays on track to clearing the Senate, Johnson has shown no sign he will put the package up for a vote.

Support for sending military aid to Ukraine has waned among Republicans, but lawmakers have cast the aid as a direct investment in American interests to ensure global stability. The package would allot roughly $60 billion to Ukraine, and about a third of that would be spent replenishing the US military with the weapons and equipment that are sent to Kyiv.

“These are the enormously high stakes of the supplemental package: our security, our values, our democracy,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer as he opened the chamber. “It is a down payment for the survival of Western democracy and the survival of American values.”

Schumer worked closely with McConnell for months searching for a way to win favor in the House for tens of billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine. But after the carefully negotiated Senate compromise that included border policy collapsed last week, Republicans have been deeply divided on the legislation.

Sen. JD Vance, an Ohio Republican, argued that the US should step back from the conflict and help broker an end to the conflict with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He questioned the wisdom of continuing to fuel Ukraine’s defense when Putin appears committed to continuing the conflict for years.

“I think it deals with the reality that we’re living in, which is they’re a more powerful country, and it’s their region of the world,” he said.

Vance, along with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and other opponents, spent several hours on the floor railing against the aid and complaining about Senate process. They dug in to delay a final vote.

“Wish us stamina. We fight for you. We stand with America,” Paul posted on social media as he and other senators prepared to occupy the floor as long as they could.

Paul defended his delays, saying “the American people need to know there was opposition to this.”

But bowing to Russia is a prospect some Republicans warned would be a dangerous move that puts Americans at risk. In an unusually raw back-and-forth, GOP senators who support the aid challenged some of the opponents directly on the floor.

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis angrily rebutted some of their arguments, noting that the money would only help Ukraine for less than a year and that much of it would go to replenishing US military stocks.

“Why am I so focused on this vote?” Tillis said. “Because I don’t want to be on the pages of history that we will regret if we walk away. You will see the alliance that is supporting Ukraine crumble. You will ultimately see China become emboldened. And I am not going to be on that page of history.”

Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., became emotional as he talked about the drudgery of the Senate and spending time away from his family to get little done. “But every so often there are issues that come before us that seem to be the ones that explain why we are here,” he said, his voice cracking.

Moran conceded that the cost of the package was heavy for him, but pointed out that if Putin were to attack a NATO member in Europe, the US would be bound by treaty to become directly involved in the conflict.

Trump, speaking at a rally Saturday, said that he had once told a NATO ally he would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to members that are “delinquent” in their financial and military commitments to the alliance. The former president has led his party away from the foreign policy doctrines of aggressive American involvement overseas and toward an “America First” isolationism.

Evoking the slogan, Moran said, “I believe in America first, but unfortunately America first means we have to engage in the world.”

Senate supporters of the package have been heartened by the fact that many House Republicans still adamantly want to fund Ukraine’s defense.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat, traveled to Kyiv last week with a bipartisan group that included Reps. Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, as well as French Hill, R-Ark., Jason Crow, D-Colo. and Zach Nunn, R-Iowa.

Spanberger said the trip underscored to her how Ukraine is still in a fight for its very existence. As the group traveled through Kyiv in armored vehicles, they witnessed signs of an active war, from sandbagged shelters to burned-out cars and memorials to those killed. During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US lawmakers tried to offer assurances the American people still stood with his country.

“He was clear that our continued support is critical to their ability to win the war,” Spanberger said. “It’s critical to their own freedom. And importantly, it’s critical to US national security interests.”

The bipartisan group discussed how rarely used procedures could be used to advance the legislation through the House, even without the speaker’s support. But Spanberger called it a “tragedy” that the legislation could still stall despite a majority of lawmakers standing ready to support it.

“The fact that the only thing standing in the way is one person who does or doesn’t choose to bring it to the floor,” she said. “The procedure standing in the way of defeating Russia — that’s the part that for me is just untenable.”

(AP)

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ICJ partially rejects Ukraine ‘terror’ case against Russia

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All the latest developments on the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine swap scores of POWs despite tensions over a plane crash last week

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Russia and Ukraine have exchanged about 200 prisoners of war each, the countries said Wednesday, despite tensions stemming from last week’s crash of a military transport plane that Moscow claimed was carrying Ukrainian POWs and was shot down by Kyiv’s forces.

After the 24 January crash of the Il-76 plane in Russia’s Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, some Russian officials had publicly questioned the possibility of future POW swaps.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said the countries exchanged 195 POWs each. After the statement was released, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 207 Ukrainians were freed. There was no immediate explanation for the different figures.

“We remember each Ukrainian in captivity. Both warriors and civilians. We must bring all of them back. We are working on it,” Zelenskyy said on X, formerly Twitter.

Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s ombudsman for human rights, said on social media that it was the 50th such exchange since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, with a total of 3,035 POWs repatriated.

Among the Ukrainians released were members of the armed forces, National Guard, Border Service and national police, said Andrii Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office. He added that some of them had been captured while defending Mariupol, Azovstal, and Snake Island.

The Russian military said, without providing details or evidence, that the Russian POWs who were swapped Wednesday “faced deadly danger in captivity” and will be flown to Moscow for treatment and rehabilitation.

Moscow had said 65 Ukrainian POWs had been aboard the military transport that crashed 24 January. Ukrainian officials confirmed that a swap was due to take place that day and was called off, but said it has seen no evidence the plane was carrying the POWs.

Meeting with his campaign staff in Moscow as he ramps up his run for reelection, President Vladimir Putin said Russian investigators concluded that Ukraine used US-supplied Patriot air defence systems to shoot down the transport plane. Ukrainian officials didn’t deny the plane’s downing but didn’t take responsibility and called for an international investigation.

Putin said Russia wouldn’t just welcome but would “insist” on an international inquiry on what he described as a “crime” by Ukraine.

ICJ judges largely reject Ukraine’s “terror” case against Russia

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) rejected on Wednesday almost all of Ukraine’s claims on Russia violating the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism.

The United Nations’ top court rejected large parts of the case filed by Ukraine, alleging that Russia bankrolled separatist rebels in the country’s east a decade ago and discriminated against Crimea’s multi-ethnic community, the International Court of Justice ruled Wednesday that Moscow violated articles of two treaties.

Russia has not fulfilled its obligations only on one provision of the convention, said ICJ President Joan Donoghue while reading out the decision in The Hague.

“Russia failed to fulfill its obligations to conduct investigations against individuals who allegedly could finance terrorism in Ukraine,” she said.

Most of Ukraine’s claims under the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination were also found to be ungrounded.

“The Court rejects all other claims of Ukraine in relation to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination,” the order read.

However, it added that Russia had violated its obligations under Articles 2 and 5 of the convention through its implementation of its educational system in Crimea after 2014 with regard to schooling in the Ukrainian language.

Even though it rejected far more of Kyiv’s claims under the treaties, Anton Korynevych, a lawyer representing Ukraine at the ICJ, said it was a “really important day” because the court had still ruled that Russia had “violated international law.”

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Ukraine sued Russia for violating both conventions in 2017, and labeled breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk “terrorist organisations financed by Russia.”

Kyiv also insisted that Russia was allegedly conducting a targeted campaign of racial discrimination against Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians in Crimea.

The court also rejected Ukraine’s request for Moscow to pay reparations for attacks in eastern Ukraine blamed on pro-Russia Ukrainian rebels, including the 17 July 2014, downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 that killed all 298 passengers and crew.

Azov Brigade uses a howitzer to fire at Russian positions in eastern Ukraine

An artillery unit of the Azov Brigade in eastern Ukraine has used a howitzer to fire at Russian positions, as Ukraine’s forces continue to grapple with ammunition shortages.

The unit, embedded in the forest near Lyman, said Russian forces were attempting to advance and their work was crucial to hold them back.

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The situation in the Kreminna direction is tense with Russians making assaults every day, the soldiers say.

“As on the entire frontline, it is quite tense here because there are active assaults that we are fighting back and this requires a lot of ammunition,” said “Vyarag”, an Azov Brigade howitzer calculation commander.

The brigade is facing a lack of ammunition and parts to repair the American howitzers they received last September.

For now, they have only 10% of the total number they need to fight Russians said one of the commanders of the artillery division.

The brigade said that they are constantly inventing new fighting strategies to deter the Russians, but to go on a counterattack to win, more ammunition is needed.

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Even with a shortage of ammunition, soldiers are not lacking motivation.

Putin holds meeting on development of occupied Ukrainian territories

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday chaired a meeting on the economic development of occupied Ukrainian territories.

Moscow spent almost two trillion rubles on a “comprehensive” development programme of Russia-held parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions last year, Putin said.

Over two million local residents there are already receiving social security payments, he added.

“The economy is gradually recovering, including industry. More than one-and-a-half hundred enterprises in mechanical engineering, metallurgy, mining, and other important industries in all these regions have resumed work.

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Support for farmers has been established, banks and shops are operating,” Putin claimed.

He urged Russian banks to start working in the occupied territories.

“Everything that was feared before – sanctions – has already happened. What is there to be afraid of? You need to enter these territories and work more actively there,” Putin said.

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Russia faces new ICJ ruling as European leaders say they let Kyiv down

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The latest developments from the war in Ukraine.

European leaders admit EU has ‘fallen short’ of its goals to help Ukraine

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In a letter published in the Financial Times on Wednesday, five European leaders admitted “the hard truth” that the European Union has “fallen short” of its goal to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery rounds before the end of March 2024.

In the document, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Petr Fiala, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte wrote that the EU “can’t just give up on our promise.”

“If Ukrainian soldiers are to keep up the fight, the need for ammunition is overwhelming,” the letter reads. “And the EU member states’ delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is more important than ever.”

The leaders called for the EU to redouble its efforts to support Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion and provide Kyiv “the ammunition and weapon systems, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs and air defence” it urgently needs.

Ruling due in Russian separatist funding case

The United Nations’ top court plans to rule today on Ukraine’s allegations that Russia bankrolled separatist rebels in the country’s east a decade ago and has discriminated against Crimea’s multiethnic community since its annexation of the peninsula.

The legally binding final ruling is the first of two expected decisions from the International Court of Justice linked to the decade-long conflict between Russia and Ukraine that exploded into a full-blown war almost two years ago.

The case, filed in 2017, accuses Russia of breaching conventions against discrimination and the financing of terrorism. Ukraine wants the court to order Moscow to pay reparations for attacks and crimes in the country’s east, including the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014.

The court is also expected to rule Friday on Russia’s objections to its jurisdiction in another case filed by Ukraine shortly after Russian troops invaded in February 2022. It alleges that Moscow launched its attack based on trumped-up genocide allegations. 

The court already has issued an interim order for Russia to halt the invasion, which Moscow has flouted.

European Commission extends duty-free policy with Ukraine

The European Commission announced on Wednesday that it would extend the suspension of import duties on Ukrainian agricultural exports for another year, til June 2025.

The announcement is likely to fuel the anger of farmers who have been protesting across Europe for measures to protect them from the influx of cheaper imports and to recognise the value of their work.

Belarusian rock band critical of Putin detained in Thailand

Members of a rock band that has been critical of Moscow’s war in Ukraine remained locked up Tuesday in a Thai immigration jail, fearful that they could be deported to Russia as a reported plan to let them fly to safety in Israel was apparently suspended.

The progressive rock band Bi-2 said on Facebook they had information that intervention from Russian diplomats had scuttled the plan, even though tickets had already been purchased for their flight.

“The group participants remain detained at the immigration centre in a shared cell with 80 people,” the post said. It said they declined to meet with the Russian consul.

The group later said on the Telegram messaging app that its singer, Yegor Bortnik, whose stage name is Lyova, boarded a flight for Israel late Tuesday, but the other members remained in jail.

The seven band members were arrested last Thursday after playing a concert on the southern resort island of Phuket, reportedly for not having proper working papers. On Facebook, they said all their concerts “are held in accordance with local laws and practices.” Phuket is a popular destination for Russian expats and tourists.

The detained musicians “include Russian citizens as well as dual nationals of Russia and other countries, including Israel and Australia,” the group Human Rights Watch said in a statement Tuesday. Those holding only Russian citizenship are thought to be most at risk.

Bi-2 has 1.01 million subscribers to its YouTube channel and 376,000 monthly listeners on Spotify.

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Ukraine’s promises to Hungarian minority fall short, says Orbán

Members of a sizeable ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine continue to disrupt relations between Budapest and Kyiv, threatening to derail key financial support for the Ukrainian war effort.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long alleged that Ukraine’s government is infringing upon the right of Hungarian-speaking students, and of the roughly 75,000 ethnic Hungarians residing in the Ukrainian region of Zakarpattia, to speak their native language in education and public administration.

His government has blocked crucial EU funding for Ukraine and threatened to impede the war-ravaged country’s efforts toward eventually joining the bloc, bringing diplomatic ties to worrying lows.

The dispute over language is rooted in Ukraine’s efforts to bolster its national identity after Russia-backed rebels took control of two regions in the country’s east in 2014 and Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

Aimed at combating Russian influence, but ultimately affecting other minority languages, a law was passed in 2017 that made Ukrainian the required language of school study past the fifth grade.

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But in December, Ukraine amended its education and language laws to comply with the EU’s membership requirements, and restored many of the language rights demanded by Budapest – prompting a sigh of relief from the region’s Hungarian community.

UK tries to free up frozen Abramovich Chelsea funds

UK lawmakers expressed frustration Wednesday that funds from the sale of the Chelsea Football Club have not yet gone to support Ukrainian war victims as had been promised nearly two years ago by the former owner, Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.

Abramovich sold Chelsea in 2022 after being sanctioned by the British government for what it called his enabling of Russia’s “brutal and barbaric invasion” of Ukraine.

He pledged to donate the £2.5 billion (nearly €3 billion) from the sale to victims of the war. But almost 20 months later, the funds are still frozen in a bank account in an apparent disagreement with the British government over how they should be spent.

The stalemate highlights the difficulty Western governments face in reallocating frozen Russian assets to Ukraine – even those that have been pledged by their owner.

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“We are all completely baffled and frustrated that it has taken so long,” said Lord Peter Ricketts, chair of the European Affairs Committee in the British House of Lords, which produced the report.

“We can’t understand why either Abramovich or the British government didn’t ensure that there was more clarity in the original undertaking which … would avoid arguments about exactly who in Ukraine would get this money,” Ricketts said.

The impasse “reflects badly on both Mr Abramovich and the Government,” the report said.

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Ukraine lets slip the cats of war

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Wars are fought by soldiers using bullets, shells and missiles, but also with ideas and propaganda — which explains why cats have become the latest battlefront in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s social media are full of felines, showing how they help soldiers as emotional support animals, attract donations to the military with their fluffy cuteness, and also fight invaders — in this case mice.

Russia is fighting back by humanizing its invading soldiers — often used in “meat wave” attacks against Ukrainian positions and accused of atrocities against civilians — by showing them with their own cats.

Cats usually arrive at Ukrainian army positions from nearby villages or towns destroyed by war. Abandoned by their owners, the pets seek human protection from the constant shelling, drone strikes and minefields.

“When this scared little creature comes to you, seeking protection, how could you say no? We are strong, so we protect weaker beings, who got into the same awful circumstances as we did, just because Russians showed up on our land,” explained Oleksandr Yabchanka, a Ukrainian army combat medic.

Cats and other animals bring comfort to Ukrainian soldiers. “Some adopt them and take them home, others prefer to keep them in the trenches and even pass them on to other units during rotation,” said Oleksandr Shtupun, a Ukrainian army spokesperson.  

The adopted felines also fight their own battles against the mice that infest the trenches and chew Starlink satellite comms cables and car wiring, destroy food supplies and military gear, and even nip the fingers of sleeping soldiers.

“If cats live in our trenches, mice will almost always stay away,” Yabchanka said.

Syrsky the cat

Ukrainian Army Land Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrsky is known as one of the country’s most effective combat leaders; he is less famous for having a feline namesake with a lethal reputation. Roman Sinicyn, a Ukrainian army officer and the human of Syrsky the Cat, claims the naming was coincidental.

“He got the name because he likes cheese [syr in Ukrainian]. Of course, a cat with the same name as our general has already become a military joke,” Sinicyn said.

Even General Syrsky found it funny … to Sinicyn’s infinite relief. The officer met Syrsky the cat on a combat mission in a frontline village where, for a month, soldiers had been living in an abandoned house infested with mice.

“Most of the locals evacuated, so the cats took over. We caught Syrsky and food-persuaded him to stay with us. He helped to solve our mouse problem,” Sinicyn said.

Roman Sinicyn, a Ukrainian army officer and the human of Syrsky the Cat | Roman Sinicyn

“The mice run over you while you sleep, they get into your stuff. They chew everything. We had to throw out two boxes of our packed rations because of mice,” Sinicyn explained.

Once Syrsky was installed, the soldiers would listen to his nightly patrols against rodents. 

“I took him home when we left that position. Now he lives with my family in Kyiv, but he continues to help the army. We used his social media popularity to collect €147,000 for Mini Shark UAV complexes for adjusting artillery,” Sinicyn said.

Shaybyk the lover

Oleksandr Liashuk, from the Odesa region in southwest Ukraine, gave a purr-out to Shaybyk — one of four stray kittens living with his unit on the southern front in 2022.

“Shaybyk had the biggest charisma. It was getting cold, so I took him with me one night into my sleeping bag. And that’s when I fell in love with that cat,” said Liashuk, 26. “He’s not just my best friend, he’s my son.”

Since then, Shaybyk has moved to different positions with Liashuk, with the pair becoming a viral sensation for their joint patrol videos.

Shaybyk has moved to different positions with Liashuk, with the pair becoming a viral sensation for their joint patrol videos | Oleksandr Liashuk

Liashuk describes his cat as the perfect hunter. “Once we were at the position in the forest and he caught 11 mice in one day. Sometimes [he] brings mice to my sleeping bag,” he boasted.

Despite their bond, Shaybyk remains a free cat, but he has always returned to Liashuk. In June he disappeared for 18 long days until he was found by Ukrainian soldiers at a position several kilometers away, chilling with the local felines. “He just needed some love. I call it a vacation,” Liashuk said.

Shaybyk and Liashuk also collect donations for the Ukrainian army, with Shaybyk receiving a special award in September for helping to raise money to buy seven cars and other supplies.

Karolina the mother

Yabchanka says he was never a cat person.

That changed two years ago, the day he met Karolina — a sassy stray who showed up at his unit’s position in the village of Serebrianka, Donetsk region.

“One day Karolina jumped on our sleeping spot, even though she was not allowed to. We started swearing. In response, she started giving birth. That is how we got ourselves a family of six cats,” Yabchanka said.

During a rotation, Karolina and her kittens moved with Yabchanka’s unit until they grew old enough to be adopted | Oleksandr Yabchanka

During a rotation, Karolina and her kittens moved with Yabchanka’s unit until they grew old enough to be adopted.

“We quickly found them their homes. But Karolina and her white kitten Honor stayed with me. I took them to Lviv, my home town. My mother was so happy she got two frontline cats,” Yabchanka laughed.  

A year later a small dog, Shabrys, whom Yabchanka picked up near Kupiansk in Kharkiv region, joined the Lviv cat gang.

“Now we’re never bored at home,” he said, showing dog-cat fight videos. “You can’t abandon poor creatures who chose you as their last hope.”

Herych the high-bred

Unlike frontline strays, Herald, known as Herych, is a cat aristocrat. As soon as Russia invaded, Herych, a Scottish Fold, joined his human, Kyrylo Liukov, a military coordinator for the Serhiy Prytula Volunteer Foundation, which delivers supplies to frontline units.

Herych, who lives with Liukov in Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk region, traveled to the front more than 20 times.

Unlike other frontline animals, Herych remains calm during Russian shelling | Kyrylo Liukov

“Every time he was the star of a show, with so many fighters running to us to pet him and take a picture with him,” Liukov said. “Herych was patient — though a little shocked.”

Unlike other frontline animals, Herych remains calm during Russian shelling. “At most he just turns his head to the sound and that’s all,” Liukov said.

Like Syrsky, Herych uses his online popularity to help Ukraine’s army, fronting a campaign that raised several million hryvnias (a million hryvnia is about €25,000) to purchase cars for the military.

The enemy’s cats

Russian propaganda has jumped on the story of Ukraine’s “mobilizing cats” as a sign of its desperation.

Meanwhile, regional outlets have published scores of similar stories about cats on the Russian side of the frontline, presumably in order to humanize the military in the wake of ongoing independent reports about Russian war crimes in Bucha and other places in Ukraine.

Late last year, the regional department of the Emergency Situations Ministry in western Russia’s Oryol, about 300 km from the Ukraine border, reported sending a cat named Marusya to the front to help fight mice.

“She will help boost soldiers’ morale and protect their sleep, defend food supplies,” the ministry said in a statement. “We’re sure that Marusya will do well and will soon return home!”

The Russian stories, however, tend to feature cats taken in by Russian soldiers after they were allegedly abandoned by their Ukrainian owners. 

“It’s hard to imagine life without him,” the local VN.ru outlet based in Siberia’s Novosibirsk wrote of a black cat nicknamed Copter. “Together with the soldiers he discusses tactical plans, samples dishes and stands guard.” 

Moscow tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets ran a story about a cat named Bullet who protected the commander of a motorized rifle unit by climbing onto his head to warn him of mines and enemy fire.  

Another outlet in Samara published a video of a soldier stroking a cat described as the unit’s “therapist.”

“Their purring has a soothing effect and makes you feel at home,” the soldier said. 

It wouldn’t be the first time Russia has weaponized cats for propaganda. 

Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait separating the peninsula from the Russian mainland, a ginger-and-white cat called Mostik — Russian for “Little Bridge” — won nationwide fame as the bridge’s mascot.

He was even given an Instagram account, lending a cuddly veneer to what the West had condemned as a flagrant violation of international law.  

CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct the name of Shabyk’s human; it is Oleksandr Liashuk.



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Sweden’s call for population to prepare for war sparks panic and criticism

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It’s been described as a bombshell moment. The upper echelons of Sweden’s government and defence forces last week shocked the nation by explicitly warning that war might come to Sweden, and that each and every Swede should prepare themselves. While some have taken the warning seriously and flocked to the stores to stock up on fuel and survival kits, others have accused the country’s leaders of fear-mongering.

Gustav Wallbom, a 37-year-old entrepreneur and farmer who was conscripted into Sweden’s compulsory military service before it was put on hold between 2010 and 2017, was not the least bit surprised by the call for Swedes to ready themselves for war.

“The fact that Russia, which is very near Sweden, is unreliable is not something new, and all the cases of espionage lately and Russia’s attempts to influence [public opinion] just add to that,” he said.

Heeding the call from officials, Wallbom, like many other Swedes, immediately headed to the hardware store to stock up on equipment for his and his family’s “crisis kit”.

“I bought fuel, lamp oil, matches and water tanks,” said Wallbom, who is a military reservist and who, as late as last week, received a letter announcing his new posting in the case of war.

Gustav Wallbom, a Swedish military reservist, was not the least surprised by the officials’ warnings of the dangers of Russia. © Gustav Wallbom, private

“I’m more surprised that some feel that the dangers have been exaggerated,” he said. “To me, that’s like burying your head in the sand.”

Wallbom was referring to what had happened at an annual security conference in Sälen in western Sweden a week ago.

Carl-Oscar Bohlin, the minister for civil defence, had told a stunned audience that “war could come to Sweden”, and that the tiny Nordic nation of 10.4 million needs to gear up. Fast.

Further fuel was added to the fire when Sweden’s commander-in-chief, Micael Bydén, then warned the same gathering that “Russia’s war against Ukraine is just a step, not an end game”. In a follow-up interview with national broadcaster TV4, he said that that all Swedes needed to prepare for war.

“We need to realise how serious the situation really is, and that everyone, individually, need to prepare themselves mentally,” he said.

Where are the bomb shelters?

Although this was not the first time the country’s officials had warned against the dangers of their increasingly aggressive neighbour Russia, it was the first time they explicitly said Sweden could potentially become its target – and a warzone.

Elin Bohman, a spokeswoman at the Swedish civil contingencies agency (MSB), which specialises in crisis management, said the comments had prompted a 3,500 percent increase in visits to the agency’s web-based map of bomb shelters, and a 900 percent increase in downloads of its information booklet “If crisis or war comes”.

“We haven’t experienced such demand since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,” she said.

Sweden's information booklet 'If crisis or war comes' is distributed to all Swedish households and can also be downloaded.
The information booklet ‘If crisis or war comes’ was issued for the first time during World War II. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea it was revived again. © Thomas Henrikson, Handout MSB

The booklet was first issued during World War II and was distributed to all Swedish households in waves throughout the Cold War until 1961. In 2018, it was revised and re-issued again on the back of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

“[The illegal annexation] was an awakening for the Swedish preparedness system,” Bohman explained. “All of a sudden the global situation changed, meaning we went from focusing only on peacetime crises to also include total defence planning in a bid to strengthen our total defence system. And a part of that was to ensure that we have a well-informed and prepared population.”

In 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the booklet was sent out again. It contains information on how to prepare for and act in a crisis situation, ranging from everything from power cuts and forest fires to cyber attacks and war.  

At the same time, MSB also encouraged Swedes to prepare “crisis kits” at home, containing necessities like a radio, food, water, a sleeping bag and a camping stove.

The Swedish 'If crisis or war comes' booklet contains information on how to best prepare for a crisis or a war situation.
The booklet contains information on how to prepare for a crisis, including war. © Thomas Henrikson, Handout MSB

Some companies have since capitalised on this new “crisis kit” market, offering ready-made food kits that can last up to 25 years.

Multiple arrests, cyber-attacks and GPS-jamming

Since 2022, and in particular after Sweden defied Russian threats and launched a bid to join the NATO military alliance, the situation in the country has grown more and more tense. Prior to its NATO application, Sweden had not been aligned militarily for 200 years. Neither Turkey nor Hungary have green-lit the application yet, but the Turkish decision is now only a parliament vote away.

In the past year alone, Swedish police have arrested several people suspected of spying or carrying out information-gathering for Russia. Swedish authorities have also seen a surge in cyber-attacks, and in December, a large area over the Baltic Sea was subject to a number of GPS-jamming incidents, causing several airplanes to lose their satellite-derived navigation signals. In the same period, Russia carried out a military exercise in the area with the aim of “undermining enemy navigation and radio communications”.

“Some threats have intensified, [as has] the pure military threat, the threat of an armed attack, and the fact that we might be drawn into an escalation of the war in Ukraine. We’re seeing that very clearly when we study Russia,” Thomas Nilsson, the head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service MUST told Swedish Radio in an interview on the sidelines of the security conference.

The TikTok backlash

But although last week’s comments may have been intended to place the Swedes on guard more than anything else, they also generated many negative reactions. Especially after making it onto the social media platform TikTok, whose main audience largely consists of children and teenagers.

“My children saw the TikTok and asked us about it,” said one Swedish mother of two who did not want to be named. “It’s hard for kids to focus and watch full clips, so what they basically see is just the headline: “War could come to Sweden”.

The child of one of her colleagues had seen the clip and come home in tears, she said. 

Swedish child protection group BRIS said its hotline had been saturated with calls from worried children after the blunt comments on war had spread online, prompting its secretary general Magnus Jagerskog to plead with media to take more care in how they relay news to children.

“For many children who are easily anxious or who are already worried about war, it became [even more] difficult when they were faced with social media posts and adults talking on the news about war,” he wrote in a statement. 

But the comments have also resulted in a political backlash. While the right-wing government has been accused of trying to win over supporters from the far right, the army has been accused of fear-mongering in a bid to up the annual defence spending budget.  

“Playing with the threat of war as part of the political opinion campaign is immoral but who is surprised?” Carl Tham, a former minister and a member of the Social Democrat opposition, wrote in an opinion piece in daily tabloid Aftonbladet.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, whose right-wing party is in a government coalition with the far-right Sweden Democrat party, has defended the hardened war rhetoric.

“A government should of course speak clearly, anything else would be irresponsible,” he told Radio Sweden in an interview on Thursday, but noted that “there is nothing that suggests that war is at the door”.  

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Airstrikes are unlikely to deter the Houthis

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Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

TEL AVIV — In a preemptive bid to warn off Iran and its proxies in the wake of Hamas’ October attacks on southern Israel, United States President Joe Biden had succinctly said: “Don’t.” But his clipped admonition continues to fall on deaf ears.

As Shakespeare’s rueful King Claudius notes, “when sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.” And while exasperated Western powers now try to halt escalation in the Middle East, it is the Iran-directed battalions that are bringing them sorrows.

Raising the stakes at every turn, Tehran is carefully calibrating the aggression of its partners — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in the Red Sea —ratcheting up to save Hamas from being destroyed by a vengeful Israel. And out of all this needling, it is the Houthis’ more then two dozen attacks in the Red Sea that crossed the line for Western powers — enough to goad the U.S. and the United Kingdom into switching from a defensive posture to launching strikes on dozens of Houthi targets.

As far as Washington and London are concerned, Western retaliation is meant to give teeth to Biden’s October warning, conveying a clear message to Iran: Stop. But why would it?

Privately, the U.S. has reinforced its warning through diplomatic channels. And U.K. Defense Minister Grant Shapps underscored the message publicly, saying the West is “running out of patience,” and the Iranian regime must tell the Houthis and its regional proxies to “cease and desist.”

Nonetheless, it’s highly questionable whether Tehran will heed this advice. There’s nothing in the regime’s DNA to suggest it would back off. Plus, there would be no pain for Iran at the end of it all — the Houthis would be on the receiving end. In fact, Iran has every reason to persist, as it can’t afford to leave Hamas in the lurch. To do so would undermine the confidence of other Iran-backed groups, weakening its disruptive clout in the region.

Also, from Iran’s perspective, its needling strategy of fatiguing and frightening Western powers with the prospect of escalation is working. The specter of a broadening war in the Middle East is terrifying for Washington and European governments, which are beset by other problems. Better for them to press Israel to halt its military campaign in Gaza and preserve the power of Hamas — that’s what Tehran is trying to engineer.

And Iranian mullahs have every reason to think this wager will pay off. Ukraine is becoming a cautionary tale; Western resolve seems to be waning; and the U.S. Congress is mired in partisan squabbling, delaying a crucial aid package for Ukraine — one the Europeans won’t be able to make good on.

So, whose patience will run out first — the West or Iran and its proxies?

Wearing down the Houthis would be no mean feat for the U.S. and the U.K. In 2015, after the resilient Houthis had seized the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, Saudi Arabia thought it could quickly dislodge them with a bombing campaign in northern Yemen. But nearly a decade on, Riyadh is trying to extricate itself, ready to walk away if the Houthis just leave them alone.

The United Arab Emirates was more successful in the country’s south, putting boots on the ground and training local militias in places where the Houthis were already unpopular. But the U.S. and the U.K. aren’t proposing to follow the UAE model — they’ll be following the Saudi one, albeit with the much more limited goal of getting the Houthis to stop harassing commercial traffic in the Red Sea.

Moreover, Western faith in the efficacy of bombing campaigns — especially fitful ones — has proven misplaced before. Bombing campaigns failed to bring Iraq’s Saddam Hussein to heel on their own. And Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Syria have shrugged off Western airstrikes, seeing them as badges of honor — much like the Houthis, who, ironically, were removed from the U.S. terror list by Biden in 2021. They seem to be relishing their moment in the big leagues.

War-tested, battle-hardened and agile, the Houthis are well-equipped thanks to Iran, and they can expect military replenishment from Tehran. They also have a firm grip on their territory. Like Hamas, the Houthis aren’t bothered by the death and destruction they may bring down on their people, making them particularly difficult to cajole into anything. And if the U.S. is to force the pace, it may well be dragged in deeper, as the only way to stop Iran replenishing the Houthis would be to mount a naval blockade of Yemen.

Few seasoned analysts think the Houthis will cave easily. Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy captain and specialist anti-air warfare officer, said he’d suggest “just walk[ing] away.”

“Make going round the Cape the new normal,” he wrote last week, albeit acknowledging he’d expect his advice to be overruled due to the global economic implications. But degrading the Houthis enough to make the Red Sea safe again, he noted, would be “difficult to do without risking a wider regional conflict in which the U.S., U.K. and friends would be seen as fighting on the Israeli side.”

And that is half the problem. Now ensnared in the raging conflict, in the eyes of many in the region, Western powers are seen as enabling the death and destruction being visited on Gaza. And as the civilian death toll in the Palestinian enclave mounts, Israel’s Western supporters are increasingly being criticized for not doing enough to restrain the country, which is determined to ensure Hamas can never repeat what it did on October 7.

Admittedly, Israel is combating a merciless foe that is heedless of the Gazan deaths caused by its actions. The more Palestinians killed, the greater the international outrage Hamas can foment, presenting itself as victim rather than aggressor. But Israel has arguably fallen into Hamas’ trap, with the mounting deaths and burgeoning humanitarian crisis now impacting opinion in the region and more widely.

A recent poll conducted for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy found that 96 percent of the broader Arab world believe Arab nations should now sever ties with Israel. And in Britain, Foreign Secretary David Cameron told a parliamentary panel he feared Israel has “taken action that might be in breach of international law.”

Meanwhile, in addition to issuing warnings to Iran, Hezbollah, and others in the Axis of Resistance to stay out of it, Biden has also cautioned Israeli leaders about wrath — urging the Israeli war Cabinet not to “repeat mistakes” made by the U.S. after 9/11.

However, according to a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, 75 percent of Jewish Israelis think the country should ignore U.S. demands to shift to a phase of war with reduced heavy bombing in populous areas, and 57 percent support opening a second front in the north and taking the fight to Hezbollah. Additionally, Gallup has found Israelis have lost faith in a two-state solution, with 65 percent of Jewish Israelis opposing an independent Palestinian state.

So, it looks as though Israel is in no mood to relent — and doesn’t believe it can afford to.



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Almost a dozen killed in Russian strike on Pokrovsk in east Ukraine

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A Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk killed almost a dozen people on Saturday, regional officials said. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “all necessary rescue forces” had been deployed to the town and that a recovery mission was continuing. Read our liveblog to see how the day’s events unfolded.

8:00pm: ‘All necessary rescue forces’ deployed, Zelensky says

Reacting to the deadly strike in the eastern town of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “all necessary rescue forces” had been deployed and that emergency services were still sifting through the rubble. 

Zelensky went on to offer his condolences to all those who had lost loved ones in the strike.


6:04pm: Almost a dozen killed by Russian strike on eastern Ukraine town of Pokrovsk

At least 11 people were killed by a Russian missile strike on the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk on Saturday, the regional governor said. Eight people were also wounded when Russian forces hit the area with S-300 missiles. 

“Eleven dead, including five children – these are the consequences, for now, of strikes on Pokrovsk district,” wrote Vadim Filashkin, the governor of the Ukrainian-held part of the Donetsk region, on Telegram. 

“The main blow was dealt to Pokrovsk and Rivne in the community of Myrnograd,” he added.

The town of Pokrovsk, which had a population of 60,000 before the war, was hit by a deadly bombardment last August that left nine people dead and 82 injured. 

Pictures that Filashkin posted online showed rescue squads sifting through large piles of smouldering rubble in the dark as well as a burned-out vehicle. 

Filashkin said the attack showed Russian forces were “trying to inflict as much grief as possible on our land”.

Deadly Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk


4:02pm: Blinken presses Turkey on Sweden’s NATO bid 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the importance of Turkey ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership in talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Saturday in Istanbul, the first leg of Blinken’s trip to the Mideast focused on the war in Gaza.

The State Department said Blinken and Erdogan discussed both “completing Sweden’s accession to NATO and strengthening trade and investment between the United States and Turkey”. 

A key committee in the Turkish parliament approved Sweden’s bid to join NATO in late December after months of delays but it awaits a vote by the full Turkish parliament. 

Foreign Minister Fidan said Turkey was awaiting the outcome of Ankara’s request to upgrade its fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jets and stressed that the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership ultimately lay in the hands of the Turkish parliament. Erdogan has also linked Swedish ratification to the delivery of F-16s. 

Erdogan has used Turkey’s veto power in NATO to compel Sweden to take a tougher stance with pro-Kurdish groups in Stockholm that Ankara views as “terrorists”.

Sweden and Finland dropped decades of military non-alignment and sought to join the alliance after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Their bids won fast-track approval from all NATO members except Turkey and Hungary.

3:10pm: Russia cancels Orthodox Christmas masses in Ukraine border city

Russia said Saturday that it would cancel Orthodox Christmas midnight masses in the city of Belgorod near the Ukraine border, a day after officials offered to evacuate worried residents amid increasing attacks.

Belgorod has been hit with near daily Ukrainian attacks in recent days, the deadliest of which killed 25 people on December 30. 

Russia celebrates Orthodox Christmas on January 7 and midnight masses are held on the night of January 6. 

The mayor of Belgorod, Valentin Demidov, said on social media he agreed with local church leaders that “night masses in Belgorod would be cancelled in connection to the operational situation”. 

2:04pm: Ukraine shows evidence Russia fired North Korean missile at Kharkiv

The Kharkiv region prosecutor’s office provided further evidence on Saturday that Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles supplied by North Korea, showcasing the fragments.

A senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that Russia hit Ukraine this week with missiles supplied by North Korea for the first time during the February 2022 invasion.

Dmytro Chubenko, spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office, said the missile – one of several that hit the city of Kharkiv on January 2 – was visually and technically different from Russian models.

“The production method is not very modern. There are deviations from standard Iskander missiles, which we previously saw during strikes on Kharkiv. This missile is similar to one of the North Korean missiles,” Chubenko told the media as he displayed the remnants.

He said the missile was slightly bigger in diameter than the Russian Iskander missile while its nozzle, internal electrical windings and rear parts were also different.

“That is why we are leaning towards the version that this may be a missile which was supplied by North Korea.”

Chubenko declined to give the exact name of the missile’s model. 

A Kharkiv prosecutor's office expert on January 6 inspects the remains of a missile used during an attack on the city on January 2, 2024.
A Kharkiv prosecutor’s office expert on January 6 inspects the remains of a missile used during an attack on the city on January 2, 2024. © Sergey Bobok, AFP

2:02pm: Denmark to complete transfer of US-made F-16s to Ukraine by June

Denmark’s transfer of 19 American-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine will take place in the second quarter of 2024, once Ukrainian pilots have completed training, the defence ministry said Saturday.

“Based on the current timetable, the donation should take place in the second quarter of 2024,” the Danish ministry said in a statement.

“It’s mainly an issue of finishing the training of Ukrainian personnel who will operate the planes.”

12:00pm: Russia on track to lose half a million soldiers, UK defence ministry says

If the numbers of Russian losses continue at the current rate over the next year, Russia will have lost over half a million personnel in Ukraine, the UK ministry of defence said in a post on X on Saturday. 


10:11am: Kyiv says its drone attack hit Crimean airbase

Ukraine‘s air force says it hit the Saki airbase in western Crimea in an overnight drone attack. Moscow previously said that it had successfully downed four drones over the peninsular overnight.

“Saki airfield! All targets have been shot!” Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of Ukraine’s air force, said on social media. 

Ukraine has targeted Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, since the start of Moscow’s full-scale offensive. 

Kyiv said Friday that it had targeted a command post near Sevastopol on Thursday. 

9:31am: Russia to produce over 32,000 drones each year by 2030, state media says

Russia plans to produce more than 32,000 drones each year by 2030 and for domestic producers to account for 70 percent of the market, the TASS news agency cited First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov as saying on Saturday.

Drones have been widely used by Moscow and Kyiv since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and both sides are sharply increasing military production as the war drags on.

“The annual production volume of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – excluding educational UAVs – is planned at 32,500 units,” Belousov told TASS. “This is almost three times higher than current production volumes.

“At the same time, it is planned that the share of Russian UAVs will make up 70 percent of the market in this type of UAV.”

9:27am: Russia says it downed four Ukrainian missiles over Crimea overnight

Russia on Saturday said its forces shot down four Ukrainian missiles over Moscow-annexed Crimea over night. 

“Air defence on duty intercepted and destroyed four Ukrainian missiles over the Crimea peninsula,” the Russian defence ministry said. 

4:18am: Russia offers to relocate Belgorod residents after shelling

Russian officials in the southern border city of Belgorod offered to evacuate worried residents on Friday, an unprecedented announcement that follows waves of fatal Ukrainian attacks.

The Kremlin has tried to maintain a semblance of normalcy on the home front, but the recent strikes on Belgorod have brought the Ukraine conflict closer to home for Russians.

Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov’s assurance that scared civilians can relocate represents the furthest-reaching measure taken by any major Russian city since Moscow ordered the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)

 

© France Médias Monde graphic studio



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