Russian shelling in Ukraine’s eastern city of Sloviansk kills at least eight

The Russian shelling of a residential building in Sloviansk on Friday killed at least eight people and injured 21, according to the Donetsk regional governor. Also on Friday, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said that China won’t sell weapons to either side in the war in Ukraine, in response to Western concerns that Beijing could provide military assistance to Russia. Follow our blog to see how the day’s events unfolded. All times are Paris time (GMT+2)

This live blog is no longer being updated. For more of our coverage on the war in Ukraine, please click here.

9:35pm: Ukraine secures $5 billion in further funding after meetings, prime minister says

Ukraine secured promises of $5 billion in additional funding to support its ongoing fight against Russia during “fruitful meetings” in Washington this week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told reporters on Friday.

Shmyhal met with representatives of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank as well as top US officials, on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

He said Ukraine received new pledges of additional support from Switzerland, Denmark and a number of other countries during the meetings, as well as an agreement from US aircraft maker Boeing to relieve Ukrainian companies of $200 million in previous commitments. Kyiv expected to receive more support during an upcoming conference in London, he added.

8:55pm: Death toll in Russian shelling of Sloviansk flats rises to eight, says Donetsk regional governor

The death toll in a Russian shelling of an apartment block in the east Ukrainian city Sloviansk has risen to eight including a toddler, the governor of the Donetsk region said on Friday.

 “Twenty-one people were wounded and eight people died,” the governor of the Donetsk region Pavlo Kyrylenko told Ukrainian television. 

8:52pm: Family of detained US journalist in Russia breaks silence 

The parents of detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on Friday said that they remained optimistic for a positive outcome to his detention insisting that their son “still loved Russia.”

“It’s one of the American qualities that we absorbed, you know, be optimistic, believe in a happy ending,” Gershkovich’s mother, Ella Milman told the Wall Street Journal, speaking out for the first time since his arrest. “But I am not stupid. I understand what’s involved, but that’s what I choose to believe,” she added.

Ella and her husband Mikhail Gershkovich fled the Soviet Union separately in 1979 and settled in New Jersey, raising their two children, Evan and a daughter Danielle.

The spying charges against Gershkovich, who had previously worked for the Moscow bureau of AFP, are the first of their kind in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union, prompting an outcry from media outlets, rights groups and foreign governments.

8:38pm: Putin signs electronic draft bill into law 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday signed a bill to create a digital draft system, greatly facilitating mobilising Russians into the army, more than a year into the Kremlin’s Ukraine offensive. 

The bill cracks down on those seeking to avoid conscription. A document of the law was published on an official government information portal, Russian news agencies reported. 

>> Read more: Russia’s electronic draft: As soon as they hit ‘send’, you’ve been called up

8:30pm: Asked about leaked US intel, Ukraine says remains united with US, partners

Ukraine remains united with the United States and other partners in its ongoing military fight against Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told reporters on Friday.

Asked about the leaked U.S. intelligence, Shmyhal said no Russian disinformation would disrupt Ukraine’s battle for its country.

7:14pm: Airman charged as US vows to send message over documents leak

A young national guardsman was charged Friday with orchestrating the most damaging leak of US classified documents for a decade, as the government signaled it intends to make an example of the 21-year-old.

Jack Teixeira was arrested Thursday following a week-long probe into the leak of documents which unveiled US concern over Ukraine’s ability to fend off the Russian invasion.

6:37pm: UN chief raises concerns with Russia about Ukraine grain deal

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has written to Russia, Ukraine and Turkey to raise concerns about the implementation of a deal that allows the safe wartime export of grain from several Ukrainian Black Sea ports, a UN spokesman said on Friday.

The move comes after the United Nations said no ships were inspected on Tuesday under the deal “as the parties needed more time to reach an agreement on operational priorities.”

Inspections resumed on Wednesday.

6:05pm: Finland unveils first section of Russian border fence

Finland’s border guard on Friday unveiled the first section of a 200-kilometre border fence with Russia being built after Moscow invaded Ukraine last year.

Finland joined NATO just a week ago and its 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border has also doubled the frontier between the US-led military alliance and Russia.

Three metres (10 feet) tall and topped with barbed wire, it will cost around 380 million euros ($417 million) and is due to be completed by 2026.

 “The necessity was triggered by a change in the security situation in Europe,” Brigadier General Jari Tolppanen Tolppanen told reporters. “There is a need to reduce dependence on the effectiveness of Russian border control.”

5:58pm: UK says Ukrainian troops forced to leave parts of Bakhmut

Ukrainian troops have been forced to withdraw from some territory in the battlefield city of Bakhmut as Russia mounts a renewed assault there, Britain said in an intelligence update on Friday.

5:50pm: Russian shelling kills five, wounds 15 in eastern city of Sloviansk, Kyiv says

The Russian shelling of a residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk on Friday killed at least five people and wounded 15, the local governor said, warning that there could be people buried in the rubble.

“As of 18:00 local time (1600 GMT), there are five dead and 15 wounded,” the governor of the Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said on Telegram. “There is a possibility that seven people, including one child, are under the rubble.”

1:55pm: China vows not to sell arms to any party in Ukraine war

China won’t sell weapons to either side in the war in Ukraine, the country’s foreign minister has said, responding to Western concerns that Beijing could provide military assistance to Russia.

China has maintained that it is neutral in the conflict, while backing Russia politically, rhetorically and economically at a time when Western nations have imposed punishing sanctions and sought to isolate Moscow for its invasion of its neighbour.

Qin Gang is the highest-level Chinese official to make such an explicit statement about arms sales to Russia. He added that China would also regulate the export of items with dual civilian and military use.

“Regarding the export of military items, China adopts a prudent and responsible attitude,” Qin said at a news conference alongside visiting German counterpart Annalena Baerbock. “China will not provide weapons to relevant parties of the conflict, and manage and control the exports of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations.”

1:15pm: Finnish embassy in Moscow receives letter containing powder

Finland‘s embassy in Moscow has received a letter containing an unknown powder and has reported the matter to the Russian authorities, Russian news agencies report.

Relations between Moscow and Helsinki have deteriorated sharply since Finland formally joined NATO on April 4, becoming the 31st member of the US-led military alliance. Finland shares a long land border with Russia.

The embassy received three letters on Thursday, one of which contained a powder, the RIA news agency reported.

“In line with the security rules of the Finnish foreign ministry, the letters in question were handed to official representative organs of Russia which will study the matter,” RIA quoted the embassy as saying.

11:15am: China defence minister to visit Moscow next week

Chinese Defence Minister Gen. Li Shangfu will visit Russia next week for meetings with counterpart Sergei Shoigu and other military officials, China’s Defence Ministry has said.

Li’s visit underscores China’s strengthening engagement with Russia, with which it has largely aligned its foreign policy in an attempt to reshape the world order to diminish the influence of the United States and other Western democracies. 

China has refused to criticise Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blamed the US and NATO for provoking Moscow. During a 2022 visit to Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued a joint statement declaring a “no limits” relationship between the two countries. 

Li will also visit Russia’s military academy during his April 16-19 trip, Defence Ministry spokesperson Col. Tan Kefei said.

The trip follows an official visit to Moscow last month by Xi that emphasised how China is increasingly becoming the senior partner in the relationship as it provides Russia with political cover and an economic lifeline during its war on Ukraine. 

10:50am: Russia puts Pacific Fleet on high alert in surprise inspection

Russia has put its Pacific naval fleet on high alert as part of a surprise inspection aimed at building its defensive capabilities, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said.

“The main objective of this inspection is to increase the ability of the Armed Forces to repel the aggression of a probable enemy from the direction of ocean and sea,” Shoigu said on state television.

The drill will also simulate an enemy landing on Russia’s Sakhalin island and on its southern Kuril Islands, some of which are claimed by Japan in a territorial dispute dating back to the end of World War Two.

Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov said Russia’s naval forces would be deployed to training areas and would carry out combat exercises as part of the drill.

10:25am: Russian oil exports jump despite sanctions

Russian oil exports jumped to their highest level in almost three years in March despite Western sanctions, but revenues were down sharply from last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.

The West has imposed a slew of sanctions against Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, including price caps on its crude and oil products and EU embargoes.

Russia retaliated by slashing its production by 500,000 barrels per day, and its partners at the OPEC+ oil cartel shocked the markets by announcing their own output cuts earlier this month.

The IEA said total oil shipments from Russia rose by 600,000 bpd to 8.1 million bpd last month. While Russia’s oil revenues rebounded by $1 billion to $12.7 billion, they were still down 43 percent compared to a year ago.

9:45am: Ukraine bans its national teams from competing with athletes from Russia, Belarus

Ukraine has banned its national sports teams from competing in Olympic, non-Olympic and Paralympic events that include competitors from Russia and Belarus, the sports ministry has said in a decree.

The decision, criticised by some Ukrainian athletes, comes after the International Olympic Committee (IOC) angered Kyiv by paving the way for Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete as neutrals despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine had previously warned its sports federations that it would strip them of their status as governing bodies if their athletes competed on the international stage with Russians and Belarusians.

Some Ukrainian athletes, including Olympian skeleton racer Vladyslav Heraskevych, have criticised the ban, saying it will lead to the destruction of Ukrainian sports.

“If Ukrainian representatives are not present at competitions, then we completely vacate the international sports grounds and give the Russian/Belarusian representatives the opportunity to promote their narratives and propaganda,” he wrote on Twitter.

4:09am: Russia claims Bakhmut has been surrounded

Russia said Thursday it had cut off Ukrainian forces inside Bakhmut, while Kyiv insisted supply lines were still open into the town, scene of the most brutal battle of the war.

AFP was unable to verify the status on the ground in the eastern town, which has turned into the longest and bloodiest fight since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

The Russian army said its airborne troops were “blocking the transfer of Ukrainian army reserves to the city and the possibility of retreat for enemy units”. It also said that Wagner mercenary units were advancing in Bakhmut.

But the Ukrainian army told AFP it had communication with its troops inside Bakhmut and was able to send them munitions. “This does not correspond to reality,” Sergiy Cherevaty, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern forces said, referring to Russia’s claims. “We are able to … deliver food products, ammunition, medicines, all that is necessary, and also to recover our wounded.” The Ukrainian general staff nevertheless acknowledged a “difficult” situation in Bakhmut.

  • Key developments from Thursday, April 14:

The European Union added Russia’s Wagner mercenary group to its sanctions list for “actively participating in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine” as US authorities made an arrest in connection with the leak of confidential documents.

A Ukrainian army spokesman rejected Moscow’s claims of “blocking” Kyiv’s forces from getting in or out of the frontline hotspot of Bakhmut, while Russian paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin also said it was premature to claim Russia had encircled Ukrainian forces in the war-torn city.

>> Read our live blog for all of yesterday’s developments as they unfolded

© France Médias Monde graphic studio

 (FRANCE 24 with AP, AFP and Reuters)

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Pentagon intelligence leak: What we know so far

It’s been less than a week since news of highly classified military documents on the Ukraine war surfaced, sending the Pentagon into full-speed damage control to assure allies and assess the scope of the leak. 

The information on scores of slides has publicized potential vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and exposed private assessments by allies on an array of intelligence matters, raising questions about whether the leak will erode allies’ trust in sharing information with the US or impact Ukraine’s plans to intensify the fight against Russia this spring. 

Overall, the leaked documents present a “very serious risk to national security,” a top Pentagon spokesman told reporters Monday.

This is a look at what the documents are, what is known about how they surfaced, and their potential impact. 

The classified documents – which have not been individually authenticated by US officials – range from briefing slides mapping out Ukrainian military positions to assessments of international support for Ukraine and other sensitive topics, including under what circumstances Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons.

There’s no clear answer on how many documents were leaked. The Associated Press has viewed approximately 50 documents; some estimates put the total number in the hundreds. 

  • Where did they come from?

No one knows for sure, not even the Pentagon chief. 

“They were somewhere in the web, and where exactly, and who had access at that point, we don’t know. We simply don’t know,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a press conference Tuesday. “We will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it.” 

It’s possible the leak may have started on a site called Discord. 

Discord is a social media platform popular with people playing online games. The Discord site hosts real-time voice, video and text chats for groups and describes itself as a place “where you can belong to a school club, a gaming group, or a worldwide art community.”


A Department of Defense plaque is seen outside the Pentagon in Washington, DC on October 6, 2021. © Mandel Ngan, AFP

 

In one of those forums, originally created to talk about a range of topics, members would debate the war in Ukraine. According to one member of the chat, an unidentified poster shared documents that the poster claimed were classified, first typing them out with the poster’s own thoughts, then, as of a few months ago, uploading images of folded papers.

The person who said he was a member of the forum told The Associated Press that another person, identified online only as “Lucca,” shared the documents in a different Discord chat. From there, they appear to have been spread until they were picked up by the media. 

Many details of the story can’t be immediately verified. And top US officials acknowledge publicly that they’re still trying to find answers. 

The leaks have highlighted how closely the US monitors how its allies and friends interact with Russia and China. Officials in several countries have denied or rejected allegations from the leaked records. 

The AP has reported on US intelligence picking up claims from Russian operatives that they were building a closer relationship with the United Arab Emirates, the oil-rich Middle Eastern nation that hosts important American military installations. The UAE rejected the allegations, calling them “categorically false.”

The Washington Post reported Monday that Egypt’s president ordered subordinates to secretly prepare to ship up to 40,000 rockets to Russia as it wages war in Ukraine. A spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry said Egypt was maintaining “noninvolvement in this crisis and committing to maintain equal distance with both sides.”

Other leaks have concerned allegations that South Korean leaders were hesitant to ship artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israel’s Mossad spy service opposed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s proposed overhaul of the judiciary. 

Funded at $90 billion annually, the US intelligence agencies have sweeping powers to tap electronic communications, run spies and monitor with satellites. The results of those powers are rarely seen in public, even in limited form. 

The Pentagon has begun an internal review to assess the leak’s impact on national security. The review is being led by Milancy D. Harris, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, a defense official said in a statement to AP. The team includes representatives from the offices of legislative affairs, public affairs, policy, legal counsel and the joint staff, the official said. 

The Pentagon was also quickly taking steps to reduce the number of people who have access to briefings, a second defense official said. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Pentagon officials are also closely monitoring where the leaked slides are “being posted and amplified,” said Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs. 

Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked. 

CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday called the leak “deeply unfortunate.”

“It’s something that the US government takes extremely seriously,” he said in remarks at Rice University. “The Pentagon and the Department of Justice have now launched a quite intense investigation to get to the bottom of this.”

Senior military leaders have been contacting allies to address the fallout. That includes calls “at a high level to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and fidelity to our security partnerships. Those conversations began over the weekend and are ongoing,” Meagher said. 

US officials are likely to face more questions when they travel to Germany next week for the next contact group meeting, where representatives of more than 50 nations gather to coordinate weapons and aid support for Ukraine. But the document leak is not expected to affect that meeting or allies’ willingness to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, a senior defense official told The Associated Press, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

“I think a lot of the allies will probably be more curious about why it happened,” said Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic security initiative. Given the high-level security clearance needed to access the information in the first place, the leak raises questions as to who “would have that much of an agenda to put it out there,” and whether the intent was to undermine support for Ukraine, Skaluba said. 

Austin on Tuesday contacted his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, to discuss the leaked documents, several of which were particularly sensitive to Seoul because they described US surveillance of its ally and detailed South Korean reservations about providing munitions directly to Ukraine. 

The two defense chiefs agreed that a “considerable number” of the leaked documents were fabricated, Kim Tae-hyo, a deputy national security director, told reporters. He said the alliance between the two countries wouldn’t be affected by the leak and South Korea would seek to further strengthen cooperation with the United States. 

And both Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to their counterparts in Ukraine. Austin suggested Tuesday the leaks would not have much of an impact on Ukraine’s plans for a spring offensive. 

Ukraine’s strategy will “not be driven by a specific plan. They have a great plan to start and but only President Zelenskyy and his leadership really know the full details of that plan,” Austin said. 

For other sensitive issues highlighted in the leaked slides, such as Ukraine’s shortage of air defense munitions, the shortage itself has been known and is one of the reasons US military leaders have been pressing allies to supply whatever systems they can, such as the Iris-T systems pledged from Germany and the US-manufactured Hawk air defense systems provided by Spain. 

“Publicizing an apparent shortage of anti-aircraft missiles may give comfort to Russia. But if it energizes Ukraine’s partners to accelerate delivery of missiles and other air defense capabilities, Kyiv will be grateful. The bigger ‘known unknown’ is the extent to which these leaks influence US political support for Ukraine,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. 

(AP)

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Fallout from Macron’s China visit ripples across Atlantic and Indo-Pacific

The fallout from French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China rippled across the seas on Tuesday as Chinese warships continued to operate near Taiwan, a day after military drills officially ended. Across the Atlantic, Macron’s remarks on Europe risking entanglement in “crises that aren’t ours” in relation to Taiwan sparked criticism even as the French president attempted to outline his vision for the future of European sovereignty on a visit to the Netherlands. 

As President Emmanuel Macron made his way to Beijing last week for the first French presidential visit to China since the Covid pandemic, experts noted that the trip would require a “balancing act” in the aftermath of Beijing ally Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

On his flight out of Beijing, however, Macron appeared to falter on the diplomatic tightrope when he insisted that Europe should set its own policy on Taiwan to avoid being “followers” of Washington’s “agenda” in the region. 

In an interview with the Politico website and two other French news organisations, Macron noted that, “the question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction”.

The reaction across the Atlantic was swift and scathing. “Emmanuel Macron fancies himself a Charles de Gaulle for the 21st century, which includes distancing Europe from the US,” began a scorching Sunday editorial in the Wall Street Journal. “No one wants a crisis over Taiwan, much less to accelerate one, but preventing one requires a credible deterrent,” the editorial continued.

Macron’s visit last week came as Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen met US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a stopover in California, prompting Beijing to launch military exercises around the self-ruled island.   

The three-day military drills, which began on Saturday, came a day after Macron left China. “People familiar with Macron’s thinking said he was happy Beijing had at least waited until he was out of Chinese airspace before launching the simulated ‘Taiwan encirclement’ exercise,” noted the Politico report. 

If China accommodated the French president’s schedule in its military exercise plans, it did little to alleviate Taiwan’s security concerns. Chinese warplanes and navy ships were still in the waters around the island on Tuesday, a day after the drills officially ended, said Taiwan’s defence ministry, sparking condemnations from Taiwanese politicians. 

The fallout from Macron’s controversial comments was not limited to France’s overseas allies. Closer to home on the Continent, the French president’s call for European autonomy from US foreign policy exposed divisions within the EU. 

As Macron landed in the Netherlands Tuesday for a state visit that included a speech on European sovereignty, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was boarding a flight for the US. 

Speaking to reporters before boarding, Morawiecki stressed that the alliance with the US is “an absolute foundation” of European security. “Some Western leaders dream of cooperating with everyone, with Russia and with some powers in the Far East,” he said. 

Morawiecki may not have named the leaders concerned, but the barbed comments left little doubt as to the target of his remarks.  

Choppy waters in the Indo-Pacific 

Macron has long advocated the concept of “strategic autonomy” for Europe and his comments on Taiwan reflected his emphasis on making sovereignty a priority for the 27-member EU bloc. 

The roots of France’s “diplomacy of balance” date back, as the Wall Street Journal editorial suggested, to General Charles de Gaulle’s attempts to counterweigh US dominance. Under de Gaulle, France became the first Western nation to recognise the People’s Republic of China back in 1964.

But nearly 60 years later, with China flexing its military muscles on land and sea, many Western foreign policy experts have little patience for Macron’s balancing act.

Concerns are particularly heightened across the Indo-Pacific region, where the interests of the US, Japan, Australia, France, India and a number of Southeast Asian countries converge. With its overseas territories in the Indian and Pacific oceans, France considers itself an Indo-Pacific resident power. 

“China is expanding in the South Pacific, France has important territories in the South Pacific, and you cannot just say, ‘Well, it doesn’t matter, Taiwan is far away from the South Pacific,’” said June Teufel Dreyer, a political scientist at University of Miami, on FRANCE 24’s The Debate show. “China is also active in the South Pacific. So where do you say to China, ‘This is the place to stop’? Or do you end up in history looking like Neville Chamberlain?” she asked, referring to the British prime minister best known for his foreign policy of appeasement, enabling Adolf Hitler to expand German territory in the 1930s.

‘Strategic nonsense’, not strategic autonomy  

With its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific and its “diplomacy of balance”, France has been wary of getting sucked into Sino-American rivalry and has supported multilateralism as a counterbalance to an increasing polarisation in the region. 

That position, however, was easier to maintain before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and as Beijing draws closer to Moscow. While maintaining an officially “neutral” position on the Ukraine war, Beijing has increased its calls for a “multipolar” world order – a position echoed by Moscow – in a bid to counteract Washington’s “unipolar” hegemony.  

In this context, Macron’s continued focus on “strategic autonomy” appears to take a leaf right out of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s diplomatic playbook.  

Earlier this year, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi ruffled feathers at the Munich Security Conference when he lectured an audience of mostly European leaders about the EU’s foreign policy imperatives – as Beijing sees it.

“We need to think calmly, especially our friends in Europe, about … what role should Europe play to manifest its strategic autonomy,” Wang told the gathering in Germany.  

Experts on both sides of the Atlantic have long understood France’s fundamental foreign policy principle of strategic autonomy. But they were incensed over the timing of Macron’s latest comments, coming as Washington is investing billions in European security with its support for Ukraine and when Western unity is viewed as particularly important. 

“Macron doesn’t want Europe to get ‘caught up in crises that are not ours,’ like Taiwan,” said Ivo Daalder, head of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former adviser to former US president Barack Obama. “But he is perfectly fine with relying on US security commitments to address crises like Ukraine in Europe. That’s not ‘strategic autonomy.’ That’s strategic nonsense,” said Daalder in a Twitter post. 

  


 

The optics of a weakening deterrence 

The main problem, according to many experts, was the blurred messaging on deterrence, a foreign policy imperative in the age of Russian expansionism.  

“I can certainly agree that Europe may not want to follow the US lead, but what I’m seeing quoted is that France has no stake in what happens with Taiwan. And that is an absolutely untenable project because this ends with the Chinese wanting to change the world and that would certainly affect France, and it would certainly affect all of Europe,” said Teufel Dreyer. 

China is closely monitoring the international response to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan, according to several experts. Macron’s comments suggested that if the US came to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a Chinese invasion, Europe could remain uninvolved. 

“It weakens the deterrence. And if there was one lesson that we should have learned from Ukraine, it’s that we didn’t succeed in deterring Putin,” Antoine Bondaz, from the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, told AFP.

In its editorial, the Wall Street Journal noted that Macron’s “unhelpful comments will undermine U.S. and Japanese deterrence against China in the Western Pacific while encouraging U.S. politicians who want to reduce U.S. commitments in Europe to better resist China”. 

Betrayal in terms of shared democratic principles’ 

As the backlash from Macron’s comments rippled across the Atlantic, the French presidential office attempted some damage control, but it did little to contain the controversy. 

“Our position on Taiwan is constant. We support the status quo and maintain our exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan, which is a recognised democratic system,” a French presidential official told reporters on Tuesday. 

But these clarifications failed to sway Taiwanese public opinion. Taipei has so far refrained from officially commenting on Macron’s remarks. While Taiwanese popular attention was focused on the Chinese military exercises, Brian Hioe, Taipei-based founding editor of the New Bloom online magazine, conceded that there was disappointment over the French president’s remarks. 

“Macron’s comments are seen as somewhat disheartening because what people hope for are ties of alliance or ties of friendship on the basis of shared values,” Hioe told FRANCE 24’s The Debate. “In Taiwan, it’s being viewed as a betrayal in terms of shared democratic principles.” 

Macron’s trip to China and his recent foreign visits are viewed in some French circles as an attempt to get away from the domestic crisis engulfing the country over his pension reform plan. France has witnessed major strikes since the start of the year, which peaked last month after the government rammed the pension reform bill through parliament using a controversial executive measure.

But on Tuesday afternoon, even a foreign visit offered no respite for Macron. At a theatre in The Hague, where the French president was giving a speech on European sovereignty, he was interrupted by hecklers. 

“Where is French democracy?” shouted a protester as another unfurled a banner calling Macron “the president of violence and hypocrisy”.  


At home and abroad, Macron will have to choose his words carefully as his plans for France meet opposition domestically and his vision of French foreign policy is met with scepticism overseas.



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As the Ukraine war grinds on, Russia, India seek ways to keep defence trade afloat

A year after the Ukraine war began, there are growing speculations about the ability of Russia, hit by heavy western sanctions and faced with dwindling exports, to continue tosupply defence systems to India, one of its most important defence customers. Such concerns are largely rooted in payment problems that India and Russia are yet to resolve, according to sources in the Russian government, defence, and banking sectors. However, experts believe the setbacks that Russian defence exports face due to sanctions could be outweighed by advantages Moscow may have once the war is over. 

There were media reports last month that India may not get the delivery of the two remaining S-400 Triumf missile defence systems that it had ordered in 2018 for around $5.4 billion. The reports cited the 34th Report of the Standing Committee on Defence (2022-23), presented in the Lok Sabha on March 21, where a representative of the Air Force suggested that the sharp decline in the budget estimate for the fiscal year was related to “some of our deliveries not taking place”. 

Also read | Russian arms supplies to India worth $13 billion in past 5 year: Reports

Russian officials refuted the media reports. “Russian-Indian defence cooperation is developing steadily in accordance with previously reached agreements and signed documents,” said the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), which oversees military-technical cooperation with foreign countries.

When  The Hindu approached, the FSVTS, state-owned defence manufacturer Rostec, its agency for exports and imports of defence-related items Rosoboronexport and Concern VKO Almaz-Antey, the maker of S-400 systems, all refused to provide any additional comments and referred to the March statement. The Russian embassy in New Delhi, too, said there is nothing more to add at this point.

Money first

Off the record, however, officials admit payment remains an issue when it comes to trade with India.

File photo of the Russian S-400 missile air defence systems.

File photo of the Russian S-400 missile air defence systems.
| Photo Credit:
Reuters

Russia is currently fulfilling several major contracts previously signed with India, including, the S-400 systems and two Project 11356 frigates. There are more deals on the plate, including procurement of additional and modernisation of existing Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and upgrade of MIG-29s, where no final terms have been achieved. Several commenters suggested that such contracts will not be signed till the Ukraine conflict is over.

A source in the Russian defence industry said payments remain the key issue for the aircraft deals being negotiated. He noted that while India “doesn’t have many options” when it comes to fighter jets and helicopters, given both the budgets available and urgency in bringing Air Force strength to sanctioned 42 squadrons, the country’s push for increasing indigenous manufacturing is something Russian original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) account for.

Also read | Customised defence deals offered to offset sanctions impact, says senior Russian military official

India’s total imports from Russia rose by five times from $8.5 billion in April 2022 to $41.6 billion in February 2023, driven mainly by oil supplies. A source in the banking industry with direct knowledge of negotiations on payments said almost the entire amount of this $41 billion has now accumulated in the vostro accounts opened by Russian banks with authorised dealer banks in India.

Russian authorities have not yet decided on how to use this money, the person added. There are several options and mechanisms being worked out, including investments within India as well as converting into third countries’ currency. But the most preferable way for Russia to get further payments would be roubles — something that India is not able to do, unlike some other countries. The person did not specify which countries pay Russia directly in roubles.

Aleksei Zakharov, research fellow at the School of International Affairs, Higher School of Economics, pointed out two key impediments in rouble payment: first, the concerns of the Indian financial sector which is overall slowly adopting new mechanisms, and second, lack of trust on the Russian rouble.

“India is hesitant about the rouble after it experienced a serious shock last year, and there is an understanding that it is almost impossible to evaluate it correctly. Therefore, the Indian side has no particular interest in trading in the Russian currency and Delhi tried to rely on payments in the rupees. But then, the question Russia faces is whether it needs such an overabundance in the rupees. There is a discussion about what to do with this overabundance and how to adapt to this currency; it turns out that it is not possible to take the profit out, instead it can only be reinvested”.

Agreed Alexey Kupriyanov, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Moscow. “Indian banks that are afraid to take risks and process the payments are simply losing money. If these excessive fears are overcome, it will greatly help to streamline the cooperation between countries.”

“If there was something that Russia could buy from India for $40 billion, there would be no problems — in that case, the existing rupee-rouble mechanism would be enough. But there is nothing that Russia can import at such a scale,” the banking source quoted above said.

This issue is likely to be discussed on April 17-18, when a delegation from Russia travels to New Delhi for a meeting of the India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC). The Commission will meet in person for the first time after a five-year break — the last session, the 23rd (the first meeting took place in 1994) was held in 2018 in Moscow.

“The two sides agreed to work together to unlock the full potential of India-Russia bilateral trade and economic relations, including through addressing the trade deficit and market access issues,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated back in March after Minister S. Jaishankar held a virtual meeting with Denis Manturov, Russia’s Deputy PM and Minister of Trade and Industry.

Trade diversification was the focus of the business forum organised by the Russian side in New Delhi on March 29-30. However, defence is the mainstay of the trade between the countries and Russia’s defence industry is facing renewed challenges in recent years.

Declining share

Russian defence exports dropped by  46% in 2022 from the year before. “It is clear that a significant part of the weapons are produced for domestic consumption, for the needs of the armed forces, but even in these conditions, we have already sold $8 billion worth of weapons in the world markets,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said late last year. According to Dmity Shugaev, the head of the FSVTS, Russia exported weapons worth $14.6 billion in 2021. Russia exports weapons to Syria, Iraq, Egypt, India, China, Algeria and Kazakhstan.

According to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank, Russian arms exports remained stable between 2008-12 and 2013–17, but fell by 31% between 2013–17 and 2018–22. The annual volumes of arms exports started reducing significantly after 2019, SPIRI noted.

This is both due to Western sanctions, particularly the U.S. defence sanctions expanded in 2017 through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), aimed at restricting Russia’s ability to raise export revenues, as well as increasing pressure on Russian trade partners, experts note. As a result, Russia’s share of global arms exports fell from 22% in 2013-2017 to 16% in 2018-22, while that of the U.S. increased from 33% to 40% in the same period.

SIPRI data show Russia’s share of arms imports to India fell from 69% in 2012-17 to 46% in 2017-21, while Moscow still remained the key defence supplier to New Delhi. These figures, however, should be put in the context.

Grey zone

Apart from sanctions-related issues outlined above, experts point out that a large chunk of Russia’s defence exports are in a “grey zone” with no data available — and access to any trade data was restricted further by the Russian government since the beginning of the Ukraine invasion. Another important factor is that India’s requirement has changed, and there are certain specific systems that Russia is not able to supply.

Moreover, all foreign players in the Indian defence market were impacted by its policy shift under India’s Atma Nirbhar Bharat and Make In India initiatives, according to Mr. Kupriyanov of the IMEMO.

Also read: Explained | Strains on India-Russia defence cooperation

“India is striving to increase weapons exports and domestic production. The situation where India imports defence items worth billions is no longer valid. Therefore, all the players are looking for new ways and new opportunities in the Indian market — through joint ventures, through setting up such enterprises where R&D would be distributed between partners, or by including Indian domestic manufacturers into OEM’s global production chains,” he said.

Post-war possibilities

While he admitted the situation is not very favourable for Russia, sooner or later the conflict will end. “Russia is likely to emerge from the conflict having a range of weapons that are tested in combat and that are significantly improved and upgraded based on their real-time performance. This will give Russia a great advantage in terms of defence exports,” Mr. Kupriyanov added.

Rostec chief Sergey Chemezov, earlier this year, noted that some of the performing weapons during the Ukraine war, were T-90M tanks, Iskander missiles and various types of multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) as well as combat aircraft such as Ka-52 and Mi-28 helicopters, Su-35S and Su-57 fighters, Cube and Lancet drones. At Aero India in Bangalore, Rosoboronexport chief Alexander Mikheev said Russia has showcased its reconnaissance and strike drone Orlan and long-duration UAV Orion-E, which could be of interest to both military and civilian customers.

He noted that with the increased role of UAVs not just in the battlefield, but for securing critical infrastructure sites, the demand for both UAVs and radar complexes able to detect them could give a boost to Russia’s export portfolio.

But for the big business to take off, the conflict should come to an end first.

Ksenia Kondratieva is an independent journalist based in St. Petersburg, Russia.

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New Russian militia Convoy rises as Wagner Group gets too big to control

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Established in Russian-occupied Crimea in 2022, the Convoy militia is getting increasing publicity on social media as it recruits fighters. The rise of the new Russian militia comes as the Kremlin is trying to encourage the emergence of other mercenary groups to compete with Wagner, which has become too powerful for the Russian defence establishment, according to Western intelligence reports.

On April 4, two days after a Russian ultranationalist blogger with links to the Wagner Group militia was killed in St Petersburg, British military intelligence published a new warning on its Twitter account.

“Russia is likely seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to eventually replace the Wagner Group PMC in its significant combat role in Ukraine,” said the British defence intelligence daily briefing.

It was an early official alert on the latest development in a conflict that has entered its second year following the February 24, 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the British intelligence update did not name any new militias, Russian investigative journalists in exile were already on the job, identifying a new mercenary group emerging from Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that fell under Moscow’s control in 2014.

“PMC ‘Convoy’ is a relatively new private military unit. Its Telegram channel, under the same name, was created in November last year,” noted iStories (Important Stories), a Latvia-based investigative news website founded by a group of award-winning Russian journalists in exile.

The creation of the Convoy militia group comes amid increasing reports of Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin running afoul of the Kremlin old guard following his frequent rants against the Russian defence establishment’s handling of the Ukraine conflict.

The killing of Russian ultranationalist blogger Maxim Fomin – better known by his nom de guerre “Vladen Tartarsky” – in a St Petersburg café exposed the growing security risks within Russia. The arming of private citizens under civilian bosses to wage war in Ukraine has threatened the Russian state’s monopoly on violence, and the rise of a new mercenary group could be a chilling portent for Russia’s national security.

>> St Petersburg café killing exposes Russia’s security woes

Businessmen, politicians and militia bosses

While the Wagner Group has played a central role in Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine, Convoy has gained visibility in recent weeks and could become a new subcontractor in the Kremlin’s war against Kyiv.

The man at the heart of the new militia group is Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the Kremlin-backed administration in Crimea. Born in 1972 in Moldovia while it was a Soviet republic, Aksyonov was a businessman suspected of links to organised crime. In 2014, shortly after the Russian annexation of Crimea, Aksyonov – sometimes called “Goblin” after his gangster nickname – suddenly shot to fame when Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed him head of the new administration in the peninsula.

Following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Aksyonov created the Convoy militia late last year, according to iStories. The report included photographs of Aksyonov, dressed in a khaki-coloured chino-parka ensemble, “consulting on Convoy positions” in Crimea.

It was not an unusual development for Russia, according to Lukas Aubin, research director at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS). “In Russia, private militias are not a novelty. Besides Yevgeny Prigozhin, who created Wagner in 2014, we also have the militia of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. These ‘entrepreneurs of influence’ – politicians or oligarchs – support the regime and spread their influence and that of Russia internationally,” noted Aubin.

Details about the organisational structure and working of the new militia are still sketchy. On its Telegram profile, Convoy recently launched several recruitment campaigns to expand its ranks. An early estimate put the number of Convoy militia fighters at 300, according to iStories, and they are operating in Crimea and the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson.

According to a former Convoy member interviewed by iStories, the enlisted men sign two contracts: one with Convoy and another with the Russian ministry of defence. Each fighter earns around $2,500 a month. Those who serve for a full year are also promised land in Crimea or Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied Georgian territory.

A Wagner rival or ally?

It is difficult to gauge at this stage what role Convoy might play in Ukraine while Wagner is still grabbing all available resources and media attention. But its emergence comes as Wagner’s mercenaries struggle to overcome Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut amid consistent reports of the Kremlin trying to reduce the Prigozhin militia’s “dominant role” in the war.

>> Battle for Bakhmut highlights divide between Wagner chief and Kremlin

With an estimated 50,000 active fighters in Ukraine in mid-December, the majority of them recruited from Russian prisons, Wagner appears to be an indispensable auxiliary to the Russian army, which desperately needs new recruits as Kyiv prepares for a major counteroffensive.

There are no signs so far of a budding rivalry between the two militia groups. For one, relations between Aksyonov and Prigozhin appear to be excellent. A few months ago, Aksyonov threatened to apply the death penalty to Russian officials who were reluctant to send ammunition to Wagner militiamen. His initiative was warmly welcomed by Prigozhin.

Moreover, Convoy’s military commander is a close associate of Prigozhin, according to a report by investigative website Bellingcat. Konstantin Pikalov – aka “Mazay” – is none other than Prigozhin’s former right-hand man and was a key figure in the Wagner Group’s activities in the Central African Republic.

“It is not known today whether the two men are in conflict. Nevertheless, this multiplication of private armed groups shows that there are dissensions within Russian power circles,” noted Aubin. “The Russian government doesn’t really have a choice anymore anyway. The army is in a difficult position and these militias appear as alternatives”.

The two militias could coexist perfectly well as long as they serve the interests of the Kremlin. “Putin’s power is an opportunistic power where all means are welcome,” said Aubin. “Having powerful militiamen on his side is an asset, even if it’s a situation that may seem unstable.”

This article is a translation of the original in French.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy boosts ties with Poland, warns of peril in Bakhmut

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won new pledges of military and economic cooperation Wednesday on a state visit to staunch ally Poland, and he also said that Kyiv’s troops battling in the eastern city of Bakhmut could pull out if they face a threat of being encircled by Russian forces.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said Warsaw has provided four Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, with four more in the process of being handed over and another six being prepared.

At a news conference with his Polish counterpart, Zelenskyy described the perils in the grinding siege of Bakhmut, which has been all but destroyed by eight months of fighting that also has cost many lives on both sides.

“For me, the most important issue is our military,” he said. “And certainly, if there is a moment of even hotter events and the danger that we may lose personnel due to the encirclement, there will certainly be corresponding correct decisions of the general on the ground.”

In a recent interview, Zelenskyy underscored the importance of defending Bakhmut, saying its fall could allow Russia to rally international support for a deal that could require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

During his visit to Warsaw – a rare wartime foray out of Ukraine for Zelenskyy – both countries sought to forge a tighter relationship in defiance of Russia’s full-scale war against Kyiv that has reshaped international alliances.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said Moscow’s relations with Washington are “in deep crisis” as the US has led its allies in supplying aid and weapons to Ukraine. Speaking at a ceremony where he accepted diplomatic credentials from ambassadors of 17 nations, including the US, Putin alleged that Washington’s support for the 2014 protests in Kyiv that ousted a pro-Kremlin president led to Russia’s sending troops into Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said at his news conference with Duda that his government would “extend a hearty welcome” to Polish businesses seeking to help Ukraine’s postwar rebuilding, which the World Bank has estimated could cost €377 billion. He met later with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and signed agreements on developing Ukrainian infrastructure that opens a door for hundreds of Polish companies.

Poland heaped military honours and praise on Zelenskyy as it welcomed him and his wife on a joint visit, during which they thanked the country for its crucial military support and being a haven for Ukrainian refugees. The former Soviet satellite that is now a member of the European Union and NATO feels especially threatened by Russia and has been a leading advocate for aid to Kyiv.

Zelenskyy said the countries signed a new defence package to deliver Polish weaponry. They will also set up joint manufacturing plants for weapons and ammunition, he said.

Morawiecki said Zelenskyy’s visit was “extremely important because we are shaping the picture of Europe for the future. The Kremlin and Putin, Moscow wanted an end to Ukraine, but today we can see that this war initiates the end of an aggressive Russia, of the Russia that we know, and (marks) a start of a completely new Europe. This is the beginning of a completely new Europe.”

Earlier, Zelenskyy and Duda said they wanted to leave behind any World War II-era grievances that linger in Ukraine and Poland.

“There are no taboo topics between us,” Duda said. “There are still open wounds in the memory of many people.”

While Zelenskyy also travelled to the US, Britain, France and Belgium, the trip to Poland stood out because it was announced in advance and undertaken without the secrecy of past foreign trips. It also was the first time Zelenskyy and first lady Olena Zelenska travelled abroad together since the war began in February last year, said Marcin Przydacz, head of Duda’s foreign policy office.

Duda awarded Zelenskyy Poland’s oldest and highest civilian distinction, The Order of the White Eagle.

“We have no doubt that your attitude, together with the nation’s bravery, has saved Ukraine,” the Polish president told Zelenskyy.

At a ceremony in the courtyard of the presidential palace, Duda and the two countries’ first ladies were dressed in formal attire, while Zelenskyy wore the military-style sweatshirt and khaki trousers that have become his uniform since the invasion. His trips to London, Paris and Brussels in February were part of his push for warplanes and for his country’s admission to the EU and NATO, and his visit to Washington in December was intended to shore up US support.

Both presidents addressed a cheering and flag-waving crowd of Poles and Ukrainians gathered in the Royal Castle yard in Warsaw. A larger gathering watched on screens outside the castle.

Duda and Zelenskyy took on a personal tone as they quoted words from each other’s national anthems and stressed their unity.

“Volodymyr, you are a hero of the free world,” Duda said. “We’re sending a clear message to Moscow, you won’t be able to divide us.”

Duda added that Ukraine alone will decide the conditions on which it would enter any peace talks.

“The only conditions that world leaders should be demanding from Russia are the complete pullout of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory,” he said. “There is no question of any negotiations above the Ukrainians’ heads.”

Zelenskyy said the war has brought the two nations together.

“The same way that we are standing together, Poland, in this war, we will be rejoicing together in peace, arm in arm, in everything, together in the European Union, together in NATO,” Zelenskyy said to cheer.

Zelenskyy travelled through Poland on his previous foreign trips, but until now had not made it his sole destination. The country has been a major cheerleader for Kyiv, a transit hub for weapons and humanitarian aid, and a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the war.

The visit highlighted Poland’s rising role in a new international security order emerging from the war. Warsaw wants to modernise its military by purchasing tanks and other equipment from US and South Korean producers. The US has also bolstered its military presence in Poland.

Zelenskyy’s visit came at a delicate time, when Polish farmers are increasingly angry over Ukrainian grain that has entered the country and created a glut, causing prices to fall. 

The grain is only meant to be stored temporarily before being sent to markets in North Africa and the Middle East, but farmers say it is taking up space in silos and entering Polish markets, causing local prices to fall. Romanian and Bulgarian farmers have the same complaint.

Zelenskyy and Morawiecki said they had reached a deal to resolve the problem but gave no details.

The issue has been a headache for Morawiecki’s government ahead of fall elections, particularly since his conservative ruling party, Law and Justice, gets much of its support in rural areas. Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, the focus of the farmers’ anger, resigned Wednesday.

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Western arms supplies ‘no guarantee’ of a decisive victory for Ukraine

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Ukraine has been preparing to launch a spring counteroffensive to recapture territory seized by Russians and is hoping to repeat the success of its counterattacks last September. Despite the supply of Western arms, including battle tanks, Ukrainian forces will have to change their tactics if they hope to achieve a breakthrough, according to historian and retired army officer Michel Goya.

Ukraine has made no secret of its plans to launch a counteroffensive in the spring and reclaim land occupied by Russian forces since Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022. The Ukrainian army has already successfully carried out similar attacks last September, driving back Russian forces in Kharkiv and Kherson provinces. 

>> Key battles in the Ukraine war: From Kyiv’s stand to the Kharkiv counterattack

Ukraine has received several widely publicised deliveries of military equipment from its Western backers these past days, including armoured vehicles from the US, the UK and Germany. The military hardware, however, “is no guarantee of a significant victory”, says historian and former French Marines colonel Michel Goya. 

He discussed Ukraine’s upcoming counter-offensive on the sidelines of a conference organised this week by the Jean Jaurès Foundation, a Paris-based think tank. 

FRANCE 24: How does Ukraine plan to carry out its counteroffensive this spring? 

Michel Goya: The Ukrainians are obliged to launch major offensives; they cannot afford to chip away at enemy defences like the Russians. Kyiv must secure significant wins as soon as possible, in order to liberate as much territory as it can, while inflicting the heaviest damage possible on Russian forces. 

To accomplish this, the Ukrainian army will have to break through Russian lines and disrupt their set-up. They need victories like those in September in the provinces of Kharkiv and Kherson. Right now, Ukrainian forces need to advance up to Melitopol (in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province) and Starobilsk (in the eastern Luhansk province) and inflict maximum damage on the enemy. 


 

They will need to concentrate their resources and forces – at least a dozen brigades – on a specific area. When their momentum stalls, they will need to renew their attacks in order to secure three to four victories like those in September. A single counteroffensive will not be enough to reach the strategic goal of liberating all territories [under Russian occupation]. 

F24: Are the weapons supplied by the West enough to help Ukraine reach its aims? 

MG: It’s not all down to the military equipment. The tanks, armoured vehicles and mobile artillery [supplied by the West] will allow Kyiv to build up coherent and solid combat units, which could spearhead the offensive. But current supplies will only allow Ukrainian forces to build up at most three to four brigades, which is not enough to secure a decisive victory. Kyiv will need at least a dozen brigades for its offensive to be effective – as was the case last September. Moreover, Russian lines are now probably stronger than they were back then, which means the Ukrainians will need to double down. 

Aside from the number of troops, what also matters is their organisation; it is very complicated to coordinate different units that require specific know-how and competent leadership. Are Ukrainian forces capable of reaching this level of coordination? That’s the real question. 

F24: What impact could this offensive have on the outcome of the war? 

MG: There are two potential outcomes in the event of a Ukrainian offensive. Either it fails, which would lead to a frozen conflict in which Ukrainian forces are incapable of breaking through Russian defences, or it succeeds, which would destabilise the current balance on the ground. 

Russia cannot remain idle if Ukrainian forces advance in Zaporizhzhia or Luhansk provinces, especially since Kyiv’s forces would come close to sensitive areas such as Crimea and the separatist republics of the Donbas. Ukraine’s counterattack can only lead to a robust response from Russia. 

This would require a new mobilisation of military personnel, such as the one last September, when President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation of military reservists.  

The Pandora’s box has been opened; nothing can prevent Moscow from mobilising 300,000 or 600,000 more men, or even one million. Russia has crossed the line and there are no more limits – except practical ones, since it is impossible to transform civilians into competent troops overnight, without adequate training. 

F24: Why are multiple Ukrainian counterattacks necessary? 

MG: We could imagine a scenario in which Ukrainian forces achieve a breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia province that in turn triggers a broader collapse of Russian lines across the country. From that point on, everything would become easier for Ukraine, from a military point of view, and it might even win back the Donbas and Crimea.  

However, this remains an unlikely scenario to me. 

The Ukrainian offensive would necessarily have to stop at some point. It’s impossible to advance continuously along the front line for hundreds of kilometres. They would need provisions, logistics and abundant manpower – enough to replace the soldiers exhausted by combat. When Ukrainian forces advanced in Kharkiv province in September, the Russians later managed to stop them in Luhansk province. 

It is quite likely that the Ukrainian army will see some success, but not strategic victories that would enable it to reclaim all its territories. They will therefore have to multiply their attacks, bearing in mind that the Russians still have several cards up their sleeves, including the threat of a nuclear escalation. There is still a risk of nuclear blackmail – and indeed of such weapons being used, though this would come at a huge political cost for Moscow.  

This article was translated from the original in French

 

Read more analysis on the war in Ukraine
Read more analysis on the war in Ukraine © France Médias Monde graphic studio

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Putin accuses Ukraine of not wanting Chinese peace plan

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday a Chinese peace plan could provide a basis for a settlement of the fighting in Ukraine when the West is ready for it.

Speaking after talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Putin charged that Ukraine’s Western allies so far have shown no interest in that.

He also said British plans to provide Ukraine with ammunition for battle tanks containing depleted uranium signifies the West switching to supplying Kyiv with weapons containing nuclear components. He said that Russia will respond if it happens, but didn’t elaborate.

China and Russia strengthening economic ties

Speaking Tuesday at talks involving top officials from both countries, Putin said he wants to expand bilateral economic ties, noting Russian-Chinese trade rose by 30% last year to $185 billion. It’s expected to top $200 billion this year, he added.

Russia stands “ready to meet the Chinese economy’s growing demand for energy resources” by boosting deliveries of oil and gas, he said.

There are plans to expand industrial cooperation, including aircraft and shipbuilding industries, and other high-tech sectors.

Xi said he aimed to “strengthen coordination and interaction” with Russia, adding that it would help “the prosperity and revival of China and Russia.”

Russia and the West

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused NATO of wanting to become the world’s dominant military force and said Moscow is trying to prevent it.

“That is why we are expanding our cooperation with China, including in the security sphere,” he said.

Western officials “have seen some signs” that Putin also wants lethal weapons from China, though there is no evidence Beijing has granted his request, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels on Tuesday.

“China should not provide lethal aid to Russia,” Stoltenberg said. “That would be to support an illegal war and only prolong the war.”

Japan in Ukraine

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit Tuesday to Kyiv, stealing some of the global attention from Asian rival President Xi Jinping of China, who is in Moscow to show support for Russia against the West.

The two visits, about 800 kilometres (500 miles) apart, highlighted the nearly 13-month-old war’s repercussions for international diplomacy as countries line up behind Moscow or Kyiv. They follow a week in which China and Japan both enjoyed diplomatic successes that have emboldened their foreign policy.

Kishida, who is to chair the Group of Seven summit in May, will meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Ukrainian capital, coinciding with Xi’s talks for a second day with President Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital.

Kishida will “show respect to the courage and patience of the Ukrainian people who are standing up to defend their homeland under President Zelenskyy’s leadership, and show solidarity and unwavering support for Ukraine as head of Japan and chairman of G-7,” during his visit to Ukraine, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said in announcing his trip to Kyiv.

Kyodo News said Kishida visited a church in Bucha, a town outside Kyiv that became a symbol of Russian atrocities against civilians, laid flowers at a church there and paid his respects to the victims.

“I’m outraged by the cruelty. I represent the Japanese citizens to express my condolences to those who lost their lives,” he was quoted as saying.

Kishida was the only G-7 leader who hadn’t visited Ukraine and was under domestic pressure to do so. U.S. President Joe Biden took a similar route to visit Kyiv last month, just before the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion.

Kishida, Japan’s first postwar leader to enter a war zone, was invited by Zelenskyy in January to visit Kyiv.

Japan’s aid to Ukraine

Due to its pacifist principles, Japan’s support for Ukraine has been limited to equipment such as helmets, bulletproof vests and drones, and humanitarian supplies including generators.

Japan has contributed more than $7 billion to Ukraine, and accepted more than 2,000 displaced Ukrainians and helped them with housing assistance and support for jobs and education, a rare move in a country that is known for its strict immigration policy.

Two different European-Pacific partnerships

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel tweeted about the “two very different European-Pacific partnerships” that unfolded Tuesday.

“Kishida stands with freedom, and Xi stands with a war criminal,” Emanuel said, referring to last week’s action by the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin, saying it wanted to put him on trial for the abductions of thousands of children from Ukraine.

Tokyo joined the U.S. and European nations in sanctioning Russia over its invasion and providing humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine. In contrast, China has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression and criticized Western sanctions against Moscow, while accusing NATO and Washington of provoking Putin’s military action.

Japan was quick to react because it fears the possible impact of a war in East Asia, where China’s military has grown increasingly assertive and has escalated tensions around self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

Moscow and Beijing relations

At a meeting Tuesday with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Xi said he invited Putin to visit China later this year for a top-level meeting of China’s One Belt, One Road regional initiative, which seeks to extend Beijing’s influence through economic cooperation projects.

Moscow and Beijing have both weathered international condemnation of their human rights record. The Chinese government has been widely condemned for alleged atrocities against Uighur Muslims in its far western Xinjiang region. The allegations include genocide, forced sterilization and the mass detention of nearly a million Uighurs. Beijing has denied the allegations.

China looks to Russia as a partner in standing up to what both see as US aggression, domination of global affairs and unfair criticism of their human rights records.

Beijing insists it is a neutral broker in Ukraine peace efforts.

In Beijing, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Beijing’s contacts with Russia will help to bring about peace. “President Putin said that Russia appreciates China’s consistent position of upholding fairness, objectivity and balance on major international issues,” he said. “Russia has carefully studied China’s position paper on the political settlement of the Ukrainian issue, and is open to peace talks.”

Putin said Russia’s relations with China were at the “highest level of development in history.”

Asked about Kishida’s trip to Kyiv, he added, “We hope Japan could do more things to de-escalate the situation instead of the opposite.”

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What would actually happen if Ukraine joined the EU?

By any stretch of the imagination, Ukraine probably isn’t joining the EU any time soon.

Plagued by deep structural issues – not to mention Russia’s grinding invasion – it could take many years for the country to get ready – no matter where its heart lies.

Still, Ukrainian accession is a hot topic, with debates raging among analysts and policymakers about what it would mean in practice if the embattled nation entered the fold.

‘The centre of gravity would shift to the east’

Home to some 40 million people, Ukraine would become the union’s fifth-biggest member and largest by land mass, if it joined.

This would raise significant geopolitical implications, paving the way for a new Warsaw-Kyiv axis that could rival the traditional Paris-Berlin one, according to Professor Michael Keating at Aberdeen University in Scotland.

With the “old Franco-German motor not what it used to be… we could certainly see a large shift in the balance of power within the EU,” he told Euronews, though Ukraine itself would not be “very powerful”.

Enlargement could further strain the unity and cohesion of the 27-member state club. 

“The bigger the European Union gets, the more difficult it becomes to make decisions and engage in collective action,” said Keating. 

Already there are major tussles within the EU between western and southern states, eastern and northern, over the nature of the bloc and its objectives.

Relatively new members Hungary and Poland – who both joined in 2004 – have been a particular thorn in the side of Brussels, which has sanctioned them for undermining the rule of law and democracy. 

Money also matters. 

Even before the war ground its economy to dust, Ukraine was one of the poorest countries in Europe.

It had a GDP per capita of $4,800 (€4451) in 2021 – more than ten times less than advanced European economies such as the UK, France and Germany.

According to Jolyon Howorth, a professor of European politics, integrating such a battered and bruised country would cost a “horrendous amount”.

It could invariably strain EU finances, possibly diverting funds away from poorer member states, such as Poland, Greece, Hungary and Romania, all net beneficiaries in 2022.

Yet this has happened before. 

Despite “a bit of grumbling” from those who lost out, Keating says EU funding has historically changed, shifting east and southwards as the EU enlarged in 2004 and 2007.

“That’s part of the normal process of adjustment,” he told Euronews. “They’re losing funding because they’re developing. That’s not much of a problem.”

“It’s a bit difficult to complain about getting richer.” 

‘Polish plumber tropes’

In the long run, Ukraine could stand to reap economic gains, especially through attracting foreign investment, if admitted into the EU – the richest trading bloc on the planet.

Plus the need to meet EU eligibility criteria may incentivise the country to tackle deep-seated structural issues, such as corruption, an endemic evil in Ukraine. 

But Keating issued a warning.

Across many states, EU membership has increased regional disparities, he suggested. 

Those living in the area around the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, for example, have a GDP per capita nearly three times higher than in the country’s poorest region. 

This is possible in Ukraine, according to Keating. With investment concentrated around Kyiv, he said regions in the east – where “political tensions are the highest” – could grow even more “economically marginalised”.

“That could be a problem,” he said. “Policies [would need to be] in place to make sure there wasn’t too much division in the country when it came to economics and wealth.”

In the more immediate term, Holyworth says it is “almost inevitable” there would be migratory flows out of Ukraine.

Any mass influx of Ukrainian workers runs the risk of creating a possible political backlash in existing member states – irrespective of their economic contribution.

Experiencing a boom at the time, the UK was one of the only major economies not to limit the number of eastern European workers, with immigration later becoming a hugely contentious issue within the Brexit vote.

This is despite the positive economic impact of European immigrants on the country. 

But Keating claimed: “That’s already happened. Poland was filled with Ukrainians, even before the war.”

“Labour markets in western countries need these workers,” he continued, though recognised “economics and politics don’t always align”.

‘What are the limits of Europe?’

Writing in the New Statesman, a British political magazine, essayist Jeremy Cliffe claimed leaving Ukraine out in the cold would be a dangerous thing, possibly inviting new conflicts.

“Imagine a Ukraine worn down structurally and industrially by years of war; it’s economy sclerotic and investment sparse; a slow-motion failed state; its voters and leaders resentful of an EU that failed to stand by its promises.”

“Compared with this scenario, the challenges of rapid EU enlargement do not look quite so insurmountable,” he added.

Russia’s invasion has turbo-charged support for EU membership amongst Ukrainians. 

Ninety-two per cent want to join the club by 2030, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Before the conflict, only 67% said they would vote yes in a membership referendum. 

Debates around Ukraine’s EU membership ultimately raise profound existential questions about the bloc itself.

“Enlargements constantly call into question the reason why we’re doing it,” said Holywoth. “What is the purpose of further expansion? Are we doing it for its own sake? Can you keep on enlarging more or less indefinitely?”

“If you take that logic that the European Union can just keep extending itself, ever further forward, then it rapidly gets out of hand.”

Again he pointed to “ unresolved divisions” among member states about what the union really is, saying it was journeying to the unknown, without a clear purpose.

“We’ve never defined our destination. We’ve simply said that’s where we’re heading. And I think with the potential membership of Ukraine, we need to have a much clearer answer to that question: What’s the point of all this?”

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Russia and China are being driven together as the chasm with the West deepens

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as leaders gather for a family photo during the Belt and Road Forum on Yanqi Lake, outside Beijing, China, May 15, 2017.

Damir Sagolj | Reuters

China and Russia are taking center stage this week as both countries look to deepen ties just as a chasm with the West, on a geopolitical and economic as well as military front, appears to be getting deeper, according to analysts.

A three-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow this week, which began Monday, was hailed by China and Russia’s presidents as the result of solid and cooperative relations between the two leaders and their respective nations, and comes after a determined drive over the last decade to strengthen diplomatic, defense and trade ties.

Ahead of the visit, President Vladimir Putin said in an article that “unlike some countries claiming hegemony and bringing discord to the global harmony, Russia and China are literally and figuratively building bridges” while his Chinese counterpart returned the favor, telling AFP he is “confident the visit will be fruitful and give new momentum to the healthy and stable development of Chinese-Russian relations.”

Xi’s visit to Moscow is something of a political coup for Russia given that it comes at a time when Russia has few high-powered friends left on the international stage, and little to show for its invasion of Ukraine.

Russian forces have made little tangible progress despite a year of fighting, and a largely isolated Moscow continues to labor under the weight of international sanctions. To add insult to injury, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on Friday, alleging that he is responsible for war crimes committed in Ukraine during the war.

Nonetheless, China and Russia have long shared similar geopolitical aims, such as a desire to see what they call a “multi-polar world” and the curbing of NATO’s military might, that unite them. And perhaps the most significant shared viewpoint of all is their mutual, long-standing distrust of the West.

A confluence of recent events — from the war in Ukraine to Western restrictions on semiconductor tech exports to China and, lately, a nuclear submarines deal between the U.S., U.K. and Australia that irked Beijing — has only served to bring the countries even closer together, according to analysts.

“If you look at the trajectory of China-Russia relations within the last decade, bilateral ties between the two countries have really developed tremendously,” Alicja Bachulska, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told CNBC, saying that the process of developing ties had begun back in the 1990s.

“It’s basically about certain strategic interests, that are very close to both Beijing and Moscow at this point,” she added. “For both Russia and China, the main interest is to weaken the U.S.-led international order, that’s their primary goal, long term and short term.”

The Ukraine factor

For both China and Russia, the war in Ukraine is both a challenge to that U.S.-led world order and a way to undermine it, analysts note.

China has held back from openly supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine but it has also refused to condemn the invasion. Instead, it has echoed Moscow in criticizing the U.S. and NATO for what it sees as “fueling the fire” over Ukraine. It has also sought to carve out a niche for itself as peacemaker, calling on both sides to agree a cease-fire and come to the negotiating table for talks.

Behind the scenes, the West is concerned that Beijing could provide lethal weaponry to Russia to enable it to gain the upper hand in Ukraine, as U.S. intelligence suggested last month. Ukraine’s Western allies have signaled that any move to do so would be a red line and that, should Beijing cross it, there would be “consequences” in the form of sanctions placed on China.

Beijing has vehemently denied it is planning on supplying Russia with any military hardware. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Monday, reiterating previous comments, that the West was supplying weapons to Ukraine, not China, telling reporters that “the U.S. side should stop fueling the fires and fanning the flames … and play a constructive role for a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, not the other way around.”

China’s President Xi Jinping waves as he disembarks off his aircraft upon arrival at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport on March 20, 2023.

Anatoliy Zhdanov | Afp | Getty Images

China has denied it is planning to help Moscow militarily but analysts say Beijing is concerned over the war in Ukraine, noting that China views a Russian failure in Ukraine as a threat, given that it carries the risk of a potentially seismic political fallout back in Russia that in turn could harm Beijing.

“The worst case scenario for Beijing now is Russia’s complete failure in this war,” the ECFR’s Bachulska said.

“If they begin to think that Russia might fail — and that in the really worst-case nightmare scenario that there [could be then] a pro-democratic government in Moscow — for China, this would be a very threatening scenario,” she noted, seen as both a “direct threat to Beijing, and the stability of the CCP [Chinese Communist Party].”

This fear, she said, could sway China when it considers whether to offer Putin help in Ukraine. “They will probably be able to provide more support if they realize that the balance of power on the battlefield is against Russia,” Bachulska noted.

It’s highly likely that, should China help Russia in terms of weaponry or military technology, however, it will look to do it in a very covert way, analysts including Bachulska and those at the Institute for the Study of War have noted, such as using Belarus or other countries.

“Xi likely plans to discuss sanctions evasion schemes with Putin and Russian officials to support the sale and provision of Chinese equipment to Russia,” the ISW said in analysis ahead of the Xi-Putin summit, noting that it had previously assessed that during a recent meeting between the presidents of Belarus and China, agreements may have been signed that “facilitate Russian sanctions evasion by channeling Chinese products through Belarus.”

The ISW said Xi and Putin are “likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.”  CNBC contacted China’s Foreign Ministry for a response to the comments and is yet to receive a response.

Tech and trade wars

While possible military aid for China is something the West needs to watch closely, the depth and breadth of China’s loyalty toward Moscow is seen to be finite, with Beijing likely reluctant to risk major sanctions on its own economy just to help Russia.

On the other hand, analysts note that China, like Russia, has a vested interested in seeing the U.S. and wider West weakened, both geopolitically and diplomatically — for instance, if China can step in as a mediator in the conflict in Ukraine — and on an economic level, if the two nations can forge closer trade ties. This would come as the U.S. and Europe challenge China’s economic power, most recently with the introduction of sweeping export control rules aimed at restricting China’s ability to access advanced computing chips.

“Export controls on Chinese high tech — which reflect a policy of targeted containment — brings Xi closer to Putin in worldview and orientation,” Ian Bremmer,  founder and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC, adding: “I think that’s likely to be reflected in Xi’s statements when he … visits Putin in Moscow, and that’s going to be a big deal geopolitically,” Bremmer noted.

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While Russia might offer China a convenient trading and diplomatic partnership as other routes to Western markets look increasingly vulnerable, analysts note that the relationship between China and Russia is an imbalanced one.

“China doesn’t really need Russia,” Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, told CNBC. “Russia is a very tiny economy compared to China’s with the exception of some very specific things, such as its hydrocarbon exports and some aspects of its military industries,” he noted.

“What I would say though is that the U.S. pressing on China, especially in these trade wars and now tech wars, is a clear zero-sum project by the U.S. government to prevent China from reaching the frontier of key technologies, notably semiconductors,” he noted.

“It seems to me that as a result of the U.S. government’s zero-sum campaign to pull back China, to stop it getting ahead and keep it behind, is that suddenly the relationship with Russia becomes more valuable to China.”

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