The anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive: When, where and how?

The Ukrainian military has been talking since late last year about plans for a major counter-offensive.

The Pentagon documents, if they are to be believed, indicated that the offensive was planned to start on 30 April.

In late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were not yet ready for large-scale operations. And Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal indicated in mid-April that a counteroffensive could be expected in the summer.

When will the operation start?

Western experts are more inclined to the prime minister’s position: late autumn, or even early summer.

“They want good weather conditions so that they can conduct offensive manoeuvre operations,” said Robert Cullum, Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London.

“They’ll be trying to generate and sustain their own forces, but they’ll also be trying to get ahead of Russian attempts to dig in and fortify their own position. So they’ll be trying to balance those three things off. And I think the kind of window of opportunity is within the next one to two months. So April, May, into early June.”

But even before that, there is no doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will conduct battlefield reconnaissance and limited-scale operations to identify weaknesses in the Russian defence.

Possible plans by Kyiv

Ukrainian politicians and military officials say the ultimate goal should be the liberation of all Ukrainian territory, including the annexed Crimea and the territory of the separatist republics in the east of the country. But this is unlikely to be done in a single operation in the near future.

Zaporizhzhia

The most obvious target of a Ukrainian offensive, according to experts, could be a strike in the direction of the Sea of Azov, in the Zaporizhzhia region, around Melitopol. This could split the occupied territories in two, cut the land routes to Crimea and the Kherson region, and allow artillery to bombard the Crimean peninsula, the naval base in Sevastopol and the Crimean bridge. This is the scenario most often discussed by politicians, the military and experts alike.

But the problem here for Kyiv is that this strike direction is also obvious for Moscow. It has been repeatedly reported that Russian troops are seriously reinforcing their positions in the region.

“The problem then is the availability of forces because they have then two open flanks, one in the west towards Crimea, one in the east towards the Donbas, and they have to cover these two open flanks against Russian counter-attacks against both sides,” said Gustav Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations.

“So the deeper they go, the more forces they will need to just cover the flanks and push the offensive forward that might slow them down and that might also sort of swallow a considerable amount of forces.”

Experts consider a more realistic objective for Kyiv would be to advance 30 kilometres into the Melitopol area, so that Russian supply routes are in the range of Ukrainian artillery.

Flanks: Kherson and Luhansk

Vladimir Putin’s visit to the occupied regions of Kherson and Luhansk, which was announced on 18 April, is also linked by many experts to the preparation of defence in these directions, the flanks of the Russian grouping.

In the event of an offensive in these directions, Kyiv will have to worry less about securing its flanks, but in each case there are disadvantages.

In the Luhansk region, Kremenna, Svatove, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk could be the focus of Ukrainian strikes. Fighting in this area has been going on with varying success for a long time. However, the terrain there is wooded and rugged. Heavy Western equipment would be difficult to use in these conditions.

An offensive in the Kherson region could be the shortest route to Crimea for Ukrainian troops. But in order to do so they would have to cross the Dnieper River. The most difficult aspect, according to experts, will not be the formation operation itself, but the need to preserve and hold the crossings and bridges – which will undoubtedly become the most important target for Russian aviation and tactical missiles. Russian strikes against them could cut off and isolate the advancing Ukrainian grouping.

Air and artillery superiority

In theory, one important factor in a successful offensive should be air superiority. The advancing group, and its supply lines, must be protected during the operation.

Kyiv has repeatedly spoken of a shortage of both combat and air defence aircraft. If the same Pentagon documents that have surfaced online are to be believed, Ukraine will run out of missiles for “Soviet” long- and medium-range air defence systems by May, that is if used at the current rate, even without taking into account a possible offensive.

But this is about protection against Russian strikes on cities. For the front, according to experts, it is not such a serious problem.

“Yes, they don’t have air superiority, which is, of course, not ideal. But on the other hand, most of their reconnaissance is not done by aircraft,” said Gustav Gressel. “And also most of their strike missions are not done by aircraft like it’s done in NATO. It’s done by artillery, just like in the Russian army.”

“It’s been a very artillery intensive war,” said Robert Cullum. “Both sides have used artillery and artillery ammunition in enormous quantities, both on the attack and the defence. So another problem they have to overcome is the supply of artillery ammunition, which is a key enabler of military success in this war.”

Still, the lack of “frontline” air defence assets could significantly reduce the chances of the AFU if the Russian army makes extensive use of aircraft to counter the Ukrainian offensive, and here the West will not be able to provide significant support.

On the intelligence side, Kyiv has the advantage of access to U.S. and NATO information, as well as information from guerrillas in the occupied territories.

Pentagon leaks

However, the leaks of secret Pentagon documents could be a disadvantage for Kyiv.

“The American point of view is that the Russians now know how deep and with what means the American intelligence services can look into the Russian planning and Russian command and control structure, and they might adjust, for example, their codes or the encryption to prevent that,” said Gustav Gressel.

“ If that happens, and if Western intelligence at a time of the counter-offensive is less precise than it used to be, that would be a bad thing for Ukrainians.”

How can Russia counter the Ukrainian counter-offensive?

According to Western intelligence, Russia is fortifying almost the entire front line on Ukrainian territory, some 800 km long. These strips, according to media reports, consist of several lines of anti-tank trenches, trenches, barbed wire, obstacles and all sorts of fortified firing points.

The quality of these barriers has been questioned by Western experts; nevertheless, even in this form they will be a serious obstacle for the attackers if they do not have sufficient artillery and engineering support.

As stated above, Kyiv will need many forces to support its flanks to develop deep breaks; these forces will inevitably be redeployed from other directions, which the Russian army can take advantage of to launch counterstrikes in weakened areas.

Nuclear defence

The Kremlin has increasingly resorted to nuclear rhetoric in recent months, and at the end of March a decision was taken to deploy Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Experts doubt Russia would resort to a nuclear strike if the Ukrainian push proved successful.

Will the Kremlin decide to use nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian offensive is successful?

“Putin will definitely think twice or three times,” said Gustave Gressel. “To be honest, I don’t believe that he will do it for any region, maybe except for Crimea, because the price is very high and the recipe for success is dubious.”

Will the counter-offensive bring a decisive result?

Ukrainian politicians periodically claim that a decisive counter-offensive in the spring and summer could bring the war to an end before the end of the year. Western experts are very cautious about this, while paying tribute to the high morale of Ukrainians.

“If they’ve achieved significant success, and I think there will be, they’ll be in a position to force the Russians to the table and perhaps extract some kind of concessions, particularly if Crimea is threatened,” said Robert Cullum.

“Putin really won’t want to lose Crimea because it’s such a symbol of his regime’s success. If the Ukrainians haven’t achieved much success, then I think they’ll be facing a lot more pressure from their allies who are really at the limit of what they’re willing to give in terms of assistance and equipment. And so Ukraine will probably face a lot more pressure to find some kind of status quo ceasefire.”

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Tucker Spreading Fake Doctored Russian Propaganda About Ukraine Losing? Would Fox News Even ALLOW That?

Yes, we know, Tucker Carlson has been playing his interview with Elon Musk the past two nights, and it has been overstuffed with loser divorced dad incel moments to make fun of, like when Elon got that look on his face that says “Is my hand in my pants right now?” while he talked about how abortion and birth control interfere with his weird breeding desires. Or when Elon said, “I’m very familiar with space and stuff.” We will make fun of those things very soon.

First we want to talk about another story related to Tucker and the Discord leaker and Russia’s war in Ukraine, where Tucker openly takes the side of the vile, genocidal, amoral aggressors. (Russia.)

Tucker has been lying and misleading his viewers about the latest accused leaker of classified information pretty much since the get-go, trying to turn the loser into some hero for the (Russian) cause of revealing the TRUTH about what’s going on in in Ukraine. (Not the truth.) He’s also been using facts and figures from the documents to convince his very idiot viewers that the presence of 14 US special forces attached to the embassy in Kyiv means Joe Biden has been lying and America is in a HOT WAR with Ukraine.

Tucker So Mad Nobody Talking About How Leaker Exposed Secret HOT WAR Between Russia And 14 US Troops

But, you see, certain things in those documents had themselves been altered while they were making the rounds on the dork nerd Discord/4Chan/Reddit internet. Certain things had been altered in a specifically Russian propaganda direction, to make it look like, for example, seven Ukrainians were dying for every Russian killed.


The Wall Street Journalreported this weekend on an American spreader of Russian propaganda named Sarah Bils, who ran and/or participated in a network of spreaders of Russian propaganda who posed as a Russian blogger named “Donbass Devushka.” (Translation: “Donbas Girl.” You’ll note that “Donbas” is the name of one of the regions in eastern Ukraine the Russians want to claim as their own and where at the beginning of the war they wanted the world to believe the people would greet them with flowers and blowjobs. It’s where Putin declared “independence” for the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, so that he might liberate them from their Ukrainian Nazi occupiers. “Donbass” is the Russian spelling.)

Bils is a former NCO from the US Navy, and the WSJ reports she was stationed at Whidbey Island in Washington state up until last year. Meanwhile, she’s doing this pro-Russian shit online. She says 15 people people all over the world control the “Donbass Devushka” account.

Indeed, it sounds like this account’s dissemination of some of the materials allegedly leaked by Jack Teixeira — shit that had been on the nerd internet for a while and hardly noticed — was what got the attention of Russian social media, which in turn got the attention of the Defense Department. Nobody cared about these documents until April 5, when this network of Russian propagandists that was actively supporting “our men on the front” — Russians — started putting them up on Telegram. Bils says she was not the member who posted this stuff, but rather that she took it down some days later.

But somewhere between Teixeira trying to impress his nerd friends on Discord by posting these documents and these Kremlin mouthpieces posting them on Telegram, some of the information on the documents got tweaked:

Some of the slides reposted on the Telegram account overseen by Ms. Bils had been altered from the otherwise identical photographs allegedly posted by Airman Teixeira on Discord—changed to inflate Ukrainian losses and play down Russian casualties. A subsequent post on the Donbass Devushka Telegram channel, on April 12, denied that the image had been doctored by the administrators.

“We would never edit content for our viewers,” the post said.

Take that as you will.

So that’s where the claim came from that SEVEN UKRAINIANS were dying for every Russian casualty. Have a heart, people! How could you want the Ukrainians to keep fighting if Russia is just massacring them? It’s not a fair fight! We should probably all get behind some kind of “peace plan” for Ukraine that involves giving Vladimir Putin as much of sovereign Ukraine as he wants while we all tongue all over Putin’s taint.

It’s the only humane solution, right?

Tucker Carlson sure thought so, when he started spreading the doctored Russian propaganda on Thursday night. Mediaite summarizes:

Malcontent News first reported on Sunday that Tucker Carlson used the “edited version” of the documents posted by Donbass Devushka’s Telegram channel to “claim Ukraine was suffering a 7-1 troop loss ratio and was ‘losing the war.’”

Indeed, last Thursday in an angry rant in which Carlson accused both President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin of committing “crimes” related to supporting Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion, Carlson cited that statistic.

“The second thing we learned from these slides is that despite direct U.S. involvement, Ukraine is in fact losing the war. Seven Ukrainians are being killed for every Russian. Ukrainian air defenses have been utterly degraded. Ukraine is losing. The Biden administration is perfectly aware of this,” Carlson declared. Carlson has long claimed Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is going far better than the media has reported, all while remaining a fierce critic of Ukraine’s leadership.

Here is a tweet from an investigative journo about it:

And here is Rachel Maddow talking about Tucker:

Oh yes, weep for the poor Ukrainians, who are totally losing the war, for whom all hope is lost! Why would you force them to keep fighting like this if seven of them are dying for every Russian? Are you some kind of MONSTER?

Only Tucker Carlson and his ideological pals truly care about the plight of the desperate Ukrainians. And he read some stuff a fake Russian propaganda blogger posted that’s just really concerning him right now.

As far as what’s really going on in Ukraine, Cathy Young writes at The Bulwark that most of the people pushing the narrative that we really should be reeling over the information in these leaks are indeed propagandists for Russia, the Putin apologists who have a fundamental and sick need to believe Ukraine is losing.

But Young says even some more mainstream media is taking the bait, and should cut that shit out. She argues that from the perspectives of the Ukrainians and their supporters, the leaks “[contain] essentially nothing new, at least as far as the war in Ukraine is concerned.” She goes through all the things that are supposed to be sorts of shattering revelations and shows the receipts on how people have been talking about them for months.

And, she notes, the leaks contain a hell of a lot that’s embarrassing for Russia, stuff that’s clearly driving some of their propaganda-spreaders quite batshit. (She’s got the receipts on that too.)

So, you know, chill the fuck out.

Read the whole thing, as they say in internet circles.

And don’t listen to Tucker Carlson.

Y’all hear his employer is paying out $787.5 million to a voting machine company as a penalty for brazenly and knowing lying to its gullible idiot viewers about that company after the 2020 election? And that a lot of those lies came from his show?

And here we all thought they were so credible and above reproach.

[Mediaite]

Follow Evan Hurst on Twitter right here

And once that doesn’t exist, I’m also giving things a go at the Mastodon (@[email protected]) and at Post!

Have you heard that Wonkette DOES NOT EXIST without your donations? Please hear it now, and if you have ever enjoyed a Wonkette article, throw us some bucks, or better yet, SUBSCRIBE!

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy boosts ties with Poland, warns of peril in Bakhmut

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won new pledges of military and economic cooperation Wednesday on a state visit to staunch ally Poland, and he also said that Kyiv’s troops battling in the eastern city of Bakhmut could pull out if they face a threat of being encircled by Russian forces.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said Warsaw has provided four Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, with four more in the process of being handed over and another six being prepared.

At a news conference with his Polish counterpart, Zelenskyy described the perils in the grinding siege of Bakhmut, which has been all but destroyed by eight months of fighting that also has cost many lives on both sides.

“For me, the most important issue is our military,” he said. “And certainly, if there is a moment of even hotter events and the danger that we may lose personnel due to the encirclement, there will certainly be corresponding correct decisions of the general on the ground.”

In a recent interview, Zelenskyy underscored the importance of defending Bakhmut, saying its fall could allow Russia to rally international support for a deal that could require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises.

During his visit to Warsaw – a rare wartime foray out of Ukraine for Zelenskyy – both countries sought to forge a tighter relationship in defiance of Russia’s full-scale war against Kyiv that has reshaped international alliances.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said Moscow’s relations with Washington are “in deep crisis” as the US has led its allies in supplying aid and weapons to Ukraine. Speaking at a ceremony where he accepted diplomatic credentials from ambassadors of 17 nations, including the US, Putin alleged that Washington’s support for the 2014 protests in Kyiv that ousted a pro-Kremlin president led to Russia’s sending troops into Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said at his news conference with Duda that his government would “extend a hearty welcome” to Polish businesses seeking to help Ukraine’s postwar rebuilding, which the World Bank has estimated could cost €377 billion. He met later with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and signed agreements on developing Ukrainian infrastructure that opens a door for hundreds of Polish companies.

Poland heaped military honours and praise on Zelenskyy as it welcomed him and his wife on a joint visit, during which they thanked the country for its crucial military support and being a haven for Ukrainian refugees. The former Soviet satellite that is now a member of the European Union and NATO feels especially threatened by Russia and has been a leading advocate for aid to Kyiv.

Zelenskyy said the countries signed a new defence package to deliver Polish weaponry. They will also set up joint manufacturing plants for weapons and ammunition, he said.

Morawiecki said Zelenskyy’s visit was “extremely important because we are shaping the picture of Europe for the future. The Kremlin and Putin, Moscow wanted an end to Ukraine, but today we can see that this war initiates the end of an aggressive Russia, of the Russia that we know, and (marks) a start of a completely new Europe. This is the beginning of a completely new Europe.”

Earlier, Zelenskyy and Duda said they wanted to leave behind any World War II-era grievances that linger in Ukraine and Poland.

“There are no taboo topics between us,” Duda said. “There are still open wounds in the memory of many people.”

While Zelenskyy also travelled to the US, Britain, France and Belgium, the trip to Poland stood out because it was announced in advance and undertaken without the secrecy of past foreign trips. It also was the first time Zelenskyy and first lady Olena Zelenska travelled abroad together since the war began in February last year, said Marcin Przydacz, head of Duda’s foreign policy office.

Duda awarded Zelenskyy Poland’s oldest and highest civilian distinction, The Order of the White Eagle.

“We have no doubt that your attitude, together with the nation’s bravery, has saved Ukraine,” the Polish president told Zelenskyy.

At a ceremony in the courtyard of the presidential palace, Duda and the two countries’ first ladies were dressed in formal attire, while Zelenskyy wore the military-style sweatshirt and khaki trousers that have become his uniform since the invasion. His trips to London, Paris and Brussels in February were part of his push for warplanes and for his country’s admission to the EU and NATO, and his visit to Washington in December was intended to shore up US support.

Both presidents addressed a cheering and flag-waving crowd of Poles and Ukrainians gathered in the Royal Castle yard in Warsaw. A larger gathering watched on screens outside the castle.

Duda and Zelenskyy took on a personal tone as they quoted words from each other’s national anthems and stressed their unity.

“Volodymyr, you are a hero of the free world,” Duda said. “We’re sending a clear message to Moscow, you won’t be able to divide us.”

Duda added that Ukraine alone will decide the conditions on which it would enter any peace talks.

“The only conditions that world leaders should be demanding from Russia are the complete pullout of Russian troops from Ukraine’s territory,” he said. “There is no question of any negotiations above the Ukrainians’ heads.”

Zelenskyy said the war has brought the two nations together.

“The same way that we are standing together, Poland, in this war, we will be rejoicing together in peace, arm in arm, in everything, together in the European Union, together in NATO,” Zelenskyy said to cheer.

Zelenskyy travelled through Poland on his previous foreign trips, but until now had not made it his sole destination. The country has been a major cheerleader for Kyiv, a transit hub for weapons and humanitarian aid, and a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing the war.

The visit highlighted Poland’s rising role in a new international security order emerging from the war. Warsaw wants to modernise its military by purchasing tanks and other equipment from US and South Korean producers. The US has also bolstered its military presence in Poland.

Zelenskyy’s visit came at a delicate time, when Polish farmers are increasingly angry over Ukrainian grain that has entered the country and created a glut, causing prices to fall. 

The grain is only meant to be stored temporarily before being sent to markets in North Africa and the Middle East, but farmers say it is taking up space in silos and entering Polish markets, causing local prices to fall. Romanian and Bulgarian farmers have the same complaint.

Zelenskyy and Morawiecki said they had reached a deal to resolve the problem but gave no details.

The issue has been a headache for Morawiecki’s government ahead of fall elections, particularly since his conservative ruling party, Law and Justice, gets much of its support in rural areas. Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, the focus of the farmers’ anger, resigned Wednesday.

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Ukraine war: Missile tests, German funding, and Jedi air raid warnings

Moscow: Ukraine has already deployed US long-range GLSDB rockets

The Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday it had shot down a long-range rocket, promised to Ukraine by the US.

“The anti-aircraft defence shot down 18 rockets of the Himars system and a GLSDB guided rocket,” the ministry said in its daily statement, hinting the activity to be the first confirmation that the ammunition had been delivered to Kyiv.

The GLSDBs (for “Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb” in English) are small-diameter, high-precision devices manufactured by the American Boeing and the Swedish Saab. They can fly up to 150 km and thus threaten Russian positions, in particular ammunition warehouses, far behind the front lines.

Ukraine has hammered home the need for such munitions to destroy Russian supply lines and thus overcome its shortage of men and ammunition in preparation for its announced counter-offensive to push back the Russian forces occupying large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine.

The United States finally announced on 3 February that it would provide Ukraine with GLSDBs, but the delivery schedule had not been announced, with some sources saying that several months were needed before they could be deployed on the ground.

The West has been reluctant to provide longer-range systems, fearing they could be used to strike Russian territory and provoke an escalation.

Kyiv, for its part, has repeatedly promised that it would only use them to attack targets in occupied territory.

Russian navy fires missiles in Sea of Japan

Moscow test-fired anti-ship missiles in the Sea of Japan, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday, with two boats launching a simulated missile attack on a mock enemy warship about 100 kilometres away.

The ministry said the target was successfully hit by two Moskit cruise missiles.

The Moskit, whose NATO reporting name is the SS-N-22 Sunburn, is a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile that has conventional and nuclear warhead capacity. The Soviet-built cruise missile is capable of flying at a speed three times the speed of sound and has a range of up to 250 kilometres.

The ministry said the exercise, which included other warships and naval aircraft, took place in the Peter the Great Gulf in the Sea of Japan but did not give more precise coordinates. The gulf borders the Russian Pacific Fleet headquarters at Fokino and is about 700 kilometres from Japan’s northern Hokkaido island.

The Russian military has conducted regular drills across the country and Russian warships have continued maneuvers as the fighting in Ukraine has entered a second year — exercises that were intended to train the troops and showcase the country’s military capability.

The US Navy’s 7th Fleet did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Japan reacted calmly to the missile exercise, which was conducted near Vladivostok, rather than directly into the waters between the two countries.

Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihiko Isozaki told a news conference later Tuesday that Tokyo will continue to monitor Russia’s military operations, as it has been stepping up activity in the region.

Tokyo does not plan to lodge a protest to Russia over the missile exercise, said Tasuku Matsuki, Japanese Foreign Ministry official in charge of Russia, noting that its location — Peter the Great Bay — is considered Russian coast, though it is facing the water between the two countries.

“On the whole, Japan is concerned about Russia’s increasing military activities around the Japanese coasts and watching them with great interest,” Matsuki said.

He added that Russia has conducted missile drills in that area in the past and issued maritime advisories ahead of time.

Germany to vote on increasing military aid to Ukraine

The Bundestag’s budget committee is due to adopt a significant increase in German military aid to Ukraine on Wednesday.

The parliamentarians are expected to vote on a total of 12 billion euros in aid, both in the form of arms deliveries directly to Kyiv and in the form of re-supplies to the German army, which has offloaded a large part of its stocks to Ukraine over the past year.

If these funds are voted through, German aid will jump from around €3 billion so far to around €15 billion.

The German Finance Ministry will present several proposals to the parliament on Wednesday morning.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Germany has been engaged in an ambitious rearmament policy.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had promised a fund of €100 billion a few days after the Russian attack to boost the German military. But the promised funds have not yet been released and the German army continues to suffer from years of underinvestment.

Berlin, on the other hand, is one of the main contributors to military support in Kyiv. The German government confirmed on Monday the delivery to Ukraine of 18 Leopard 2 type 2A6 tanks, which the Ukrainian army has been insisting on.

Feel the Force: Hamill carries ‘Star Wars’ voice to Ukraine

“Attention. Air raid alert,” the voice says with a Jedi knight’s gravitas. “Proceed to the nearest shelter.”

It’s a surreal moment in an already surreal war: the grave but calming baritone of actor Mark Hamill, Luke Skywalker of “Star Wars,” urging people to take cover whenever Russia unleashes another aerial bombardment on Ukraine.

The intrusion of Hollywood science-fiction fantasy into the grim daily realities of war in Ukraine is a consequence of Hamill’s decision to lend his famous voice to “Air Alert” — a downloadable app linked to Ukraine’s air defense system. 

When air raid sirens start howling, the app also warns Ukrainians that Russian missiles, bombs and deadly exploding drones may be incoming.

“Don’t be careless,” Hamill’s voice advises. “Your overconfidence is your weakness.”

The actor says he’s admired — from afar, in California — how Ukraine has “shown such resilience … under such terrible circumstances.” Its fight against the Russian invasion, now in its second year, reminds him of the “Star Wars” saga, he says — of plucky rebels battling and ultimately defeating a vast, murderous empire. Voicing over the English-language version of the air-raid app and giving it his “Star Wars” touch was his way of helping out.

When the dangers from the skies pass, Hamill announces via the app that “the air alert is over.” He then signs off with an uplifting: “May the Force be with you.”

Hamill is also raising funds to buy reconnaissance drones for Ukrainian forces on the front lines. He autographed “Star Wars”-themed posters that are being raffled off.

“Here I sit in the comfort of my own home when in Ukraine there are power outages and food shortages and people are really suffering,” he said. “It motivates me to do as much as I can.”

Although the app also has a Ukrainian-language setting, voiced by a woman, some Ukrainians prefer to have Hamill breaking the bad news that yet another Russian bombardment might be imminent.

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Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

China presents itself as neutral in the Ukraine war.

At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been in Moscow for an extended meeting with Putin – an alleged war criminal.

In an article published in Russian state media to mark the start of Xi’s trip, Xi called his visit “a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace” and promised to “open a new chapter” in bilateral relations.

China has “always maintained an objective and impartial position” on Ukraine and “actively promoted peace talks,” it said.

After China’s successful rapprochement of two arch-rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, is peace in Ukraine the next victory for Chinese diplomacy?

Both EU and NATO officials are urging Beijing to take a proactive role and put pressure on Moscow. 

What connects China and Russia?

In addition to a long history as neighbouring countries and a nearly 4,200km border, there are numerous connections between Russia and China.

“It makes enormous sense for China to secure through negotiations, through its alliance with Russia right now, with Putin, to at least avoid trouble along that border,” explains Professor Hans van de Ven, historian and professor of Chinese history at the University of Cambridge.

On the world political stage, China and Russia are united by their opposition to the United States, their rejection of NATO and the Western model of democracy.

In addition, they share common economic interests: China imports raw materials, and Russia relies on importing high-tech products and components from China, explained Dr Saskia Hieber, a lecturer in international politics with a focus on Asia-Pacific at the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing Germany, in an interview with Euronews.

But this particularly strong link between Russia and China is based mainly on the close relationship between the two presidents, explains Steven Tsang, a political scientist and director of the SOAS China Institute in London.

“There is a very strong personal bond and mutual respect and admiration between both Putin and Xi Jinping,” said Tsang.

What role has China played in the Ukraine war so far?

China’s role so far can be described as a balancing act. By declaring itself “neutral” to some degree while remaining close to Putin and Russia, China has created a position that “inevitably creates distance between themselves and the United States, but at the same time not completely alienating European countries,” according to Professor van de Ven, who spoke of a “complex manoeuvre.”

Almost a month ago, China presented a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine which the European Union criticised since it did not “distinguish between aggressor and victim” but put the parties on the same level, said EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell on the anniversary of the war.

Saskia Hieber classifies the Chinese points paper as “not very concrete.” It was “perceived with attentive distance in Moscow,” according to the China expert.

The opinions of the experts differ as to what China is actually saying with the first point: respect for the sovereignty of all countries. Hieber sees a clear formulation that Beijing is demanding that Moscow respect Ukrainian territory.

However, “China’s position paper simply says that territorial integrity should be respected, without saying whose territorial integrity that is,” says Professor Tsang.

Where did the initiative for this new role of China as a peace broker come from?

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Iran declared they would reopen diplomatic channels after several years of silence. This rapprochement between the arch-enemies, which is crucial for the Middle East, was negotiated by China – at the initiative of President Xi.

“Xi Jinping is trying to find a new role for China in the world,” van de Ven said. Now, Beijing is presenting itself as a mediator in the Ukraine war – the first time China has interfered in European politics in this way.

Van de Ven considers direct interference in the war – China refers to it as a “crisis” in its 12-point plan – to be unlikely, even if the United States has indications that China could supply Russia with weapons. Beijing’s main concern is to signal a willingness to play a proactive role in peace, Tsang said.

While China has an interest in ensuring that the global economy and international trade relations and supply chains function, it fundamentally wants to stay out of the Ukraine war, says Saskia Hieber.

Can Beijing play a serious mediating role?

As long as neither Ukraine nor Russia is willing to talk about peace and seek a solution on the battlefield, China cannot play a role in the peace process either, according to Professor van de Ven. “I think talks are simply not an option at the moment.”

Saskia Hieber agrees with this opinion. While China was committed to peace and negotiations, she said, it ignored Moscow’s position “that it’s not possible to renounce hostilities and warfare at this point.”

China cannot play a mediating role, she said, “because it does not condemn the war, because it sides with Moscow. Because it does not openly say that it is a war of aggression, an illegal war of aggression.”

An end to the war could be in China’s interests from other points of view, as well: Chinese expertise could play an important role in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

“China could play a positive role if it wants to. It is very well suited to do so, given its ability to execute major projects and deliver them quickly,” van de Ven said.

But, while Beijing could benefit from this situation, a leading role in reconstruction and China’s presence in Ukraine would “create all kinds of new anxieties” in Europe, van de Ven believes.

How much pressure can China put on Moscow?

Neither the EU nor the United States can act as mediators, EU foreign affairs envoy Josep Borrell told the Spanish daily El Mundo. “Diplomacy cannot be only European or American, Chinese diplomacy must also play a role here,” Borrell said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is also increasing pressure on Beijing: “China must begin to understand the perspective of Kyiv and establish contact with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy if he wants to be serious about peace. Beijing, on the other hand, has not condemned the illegal invasion of Russia.”

How likely is it that Beijing will increase pressure on Moscow to bring about a quick end to the war?

Saskia Hieber speaks of the “huge dilemma” that the war in Ukraine has put China in.

The country is not interested in having a strong, victorious neighbour in Russia that wins the war triumphantly, nor does it want Russia to fail miserably and emerge from the war completely weakened, Hieber said, hence the initiative for peaceful negotiations.

“If the EU expects Xi Jinping to actually play a role to make peace, genuinely, I think the EU is misguided,” Steven Tsang said.

According to him, the fact that Xi Jinping travelled to Russia on a state visit and met Putin over an extended period of time while planning to (possibly) talk virtually with President Zelenskyy shows that Xi is not seeking an impartial solution.

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What would actually happen if Ukraine joined the EU?

By any stretch of the imagination, Ukraine probably isn’t joining the EU any time soon.

Plagued by deep structural issues – not to mention Russia’s grinding invasion – it could take many years for the country to get ready – no matter where its heart lies.

Still, Ukrainian accession is a hot topic, with debates raging among analysts and policymakers about what it would mean in practice if the embattled nation entered the fold.

‘The centre of gravity would shift to the east’

Home to some 40 million people, Ukraine would become the union’s fifth-biggest member and largest by land mass, if it joined.

This would raise significant geopolitical implications, paving the way for a new Warsaw-Kyiv axis that could rival the traditional Paris-Berlin one, according to Professor Michael Keating at Aberdeen University in Scotland.

With the “old Franco-German motor not what it used to be… we could certainly see a large shift in the balance of power within the EU,” he told Euronews, though Ukraine itself would not be “very powerful”.

Enlargement could further strain the unity and cohesion of the 27-member state club. 

“The bigger the European Union gets, the more difficult it becomes to make decisions and engage in collective action,” said Keating. 

Already there are major tussles within the EU between western and southern states, eastern and northern, over the nature of the bloc and its objectives.

Relatively new members Hungary and Poland – who both joined in 2004 – have been a particular thorn in the side of Brussels, which has sanctioned them for undermining the rule of law and democracy. 

Money also matters. 

Even before the war ground its economy to dust, Ukraine was one of the poorest countries in Europe.

It had a GDP per capita of $4,800 (€4451) in 2021 – more than ten times less than advanced European economies such as the UK, France and Germany.

According to Jolyon Howorth, a professor of European politics, integrating such a battered and bruised country would cost a “horrendous amount”.

It could invariably strain EU finances, possibly diverting funds away from poorer member states, such as Poland, Greece, Hungary and Romania, all net beneficiaries in 2022.

Yet this has happened before. 

Despite “a bit of grumbling” from those who lost out, Keating says EU funding has historically changed, shifting east and southwards as the EU enlarged in 2004 and 2007.

“That’s part of the normal process of adjustment,” he told Euronews. “They’re losing funding because they’re developing. That’s not much of a problem.”

“It’s a bit difficult to complain about getting richer.” 

‘Polish plumber tropes’

In the long run, Ukraine could stand to reap economic gains, especially through attracting foreign investment, if admitted into the EU – the richest trading bloc on the planet.

Plus the need to meet EU eligibility criteria may incentivise the country to tackle deep-seated structural issues, such as corruption, an endemic evil in Ukraine. 

But Keating issued a warning.

Across many states, EU membership has increased regional disparities, he suggested. 

Those living in the area around the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, for example, have a GDP per capita nearly three times higher than in the country’s poorest region. 

This is possible in Ukraine, according to Keating. With investment concentrated around Kyiv, he said regions in the east – where “political tensions are the highest” – could grow even more “economically marginalised”.

“That could be a problem,” he said. “Policies [would need to be] in place to make sure there wasn’t too much division in the country when it came to economics and wealth.”

In the more immediate term, Holyworth says it is “almost inevitable” there would be migratory flows out of Ukraine.

Any mass influx of Ukrainian workers runs the risk of creating a possible political backlash in existing member states – irrespective of their economic contribution.

Experiencing a boom at the time, the UK was one of the only major economies not to limit the number of eastern European workers, with immigration later becoming a hugely contentious issue within the Brexit vote.

This is despite the positive economic impact of European immigrants on the country. 

But Keating claimed: “That’s already happened. Poland was filled with Ukrainians, even before the war.”

“Labour markets in western countries need these workers,” he continued, though recognised “economics and politics don’t always align”.

‘What are the limits of Europe?’

Writing in the New Statesman, a British political magazine, essayist Jeremy Cliffe claimed leaving Ukraine out in the cold would be a dangerous thing, possibly inviting new conflicts.

“Imagine a Ukraine worn down structurally and industrially by years of war; it’s economy sclerotic and investment sparse; a slow-motion failed state; its voters and leaders resentful of an EU that failed to stand by its promises.”

“Compared with this scenario, the challenges of rapid EU enlargement do not look quite so insurmountable,” he added.

Russia’s invasion has turbo-charged support for EU membership amongst Ukrainians. 

Ninety-two per cent want to join the club by 2030, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Before the conflict, only 67% said they would vote yes in a membership referendum. 

Debates around Ukraine’s EU membership ultimately raise profound existential questions about the bloc itself.

“Enlargements constantly call into question the reason why we’re doing it,” said Holywoth. “What is the purpose of further expansion? Are we doing it for its own sake? Can you keep on enlarging more or less indefinitely?”

“If you take that logic that the European Union can just keep extending itself, ever further forward, then it rapidly gets out of hand.”

Again he pointed to “ unresolved divisions” among member states about what the union really is, saying it was journeying to the unknown, without a clear purpose.

“We’ve never defined our destination. We’ve simply said that’s where we’re heading. And I think with the potential membership of Ukraine, we need to have a much clearer answer to that question: What’s the point of all this?”

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Between Ukraine, Russia and the West: Turkey’s balancing act

Turkey has been walking a tightrope between Ukraine and Russia, trying not to harm the relations it has with both countries. 

So how did we get here, and is it a viable long term strategy for Ankara?

Less than two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on 10 March last year, Turkey entered the stage to play a mediator role between the countries, but the meetings held at foreign minister level in Antalya left participants empty-handed.

A few more attempts were made in the following days, including talks held in Istanbul, which were  praised as “significant” at the time, by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. 

Peace talks that bore little fruit halted on 17 May when Kyiv withdrew from the negotiation process.

A beacon of hope was lit last July when Russia agreed on an initiative brokered by the UN and Turkey on exporting grain from the Black Sea. The deal is due to expire on 18 March but unless there is a formal objection from either side, the grain export deal will continue. 

Dr Ali Bilgic, an associate professor at Loughborough University says Turkey has a unique position in the Ukraine war given its long-standing good relations with both parties. 

“Russia has been an important economic partner of Turkey, which has had trade relations with Ukraine as well. Turkey was an important soft power in Ukraine before the war too,” he tells Euronews.

Growing trade relations with Russia

Trying to reconcile the two sides during the course of the war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expanded the existing cooperation in the energy sector with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. 

At the same time, leaders also talked about turning Turkey into a “gas hub” to export gas to Europe; while Russian President Vladimir Putin said he may consider Turkey as a transit country for a possible future gas pipeline. 

As ties got closer, concern amongst opposition in Turkey grew. Questions have been asked repeatedly in the Turkish press: would this friendship open a path for Russian manipulation of the Turkish elections in favour of Erdogan?

“Turkey’s trade relations with Moscow were already at a peak, against the backdrop of a series of sanctions imposed on Russia from the US and the EU,” says Professor Bilgic. 

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey doubled its trade volume when imports from Russia rose to $58.85 billion (€55.44 billion) in 2022 – that’s up from from $28.96 (€27.28  billion) billion the previous year.

Dr Bilgic said that Ankara and Moscow have also often cooperated in Syria since 2015. 

“Needless to say, Turkey has deep political, economic, and military relations with the West. It is quite difficult to find a state like Turkey, and Ankara has been using this unique position quite effectively”.

While Erdogan and his ‘dear friend’ Putin, were shaking hands on financial deals, Ankara continued backing Kyiv in the political arena and was one of the first to provide much needed humanitarian aid.

Turkish defence firm Baykar Tech have sold and donated drones to Ukraine and is planning to complete the construction of its manufacturing plant in the country within two years.

Turkey also sought to avoid an escalation by shutting down the straits that lead to the Black Sea, with the authority granted by the Montreux Convention. 

“Warships would be blocked from accessing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, whether they come from countries bordering the Black Sea or not,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced in March 2022.

According to Dr Bilgic, the three countries are dependent on each other:

“Russia needs Turkey because, through Turkey, Moscow breaks its international isolation while keeping up economic relations with Turkey, ” explains Dr Bilgic.

“Ukraine needs Turkey militarily. But Turkey needs both Russia and Ukraine as well. In the case of Russia, Turkish exports have filled the gap created by international sanctions to a certain extent and this works for Ankara as the country’s economy has been in significant decline in the last few years”.

“In the case of Ukraine, Turkey sees the advantage of Ukraine as an obstacle to the Russian military build-up in the Black Sea region,” he adds.

But what about the West?

Turkey has preserved its stance by not joining the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and US, taking a step further also obstructed NATO’s possible expansion with bids from Sweden and Finland.

Despite this, the West did not turn its back to Turkey completely because, according to Dr Bilgic, “it also needs Turkey”.

“Since the beginning of the war, China has been trying to adopt a mediator role in the conflict and Beijing’s efforts have been intensified recently. Particularly for Washington, this role is not acceptable given the rising tension with China. Turkey as a NATO state is a preferred option,” he argues.

On the other hand, Erdogan’s willingness to push relationships to the limits has not been completely without consequences. 

Dr Bilgic says the main loss has been economic, but there is also reputational damage in the West from continuing to block Swedish and Finnish NATO bids. 

At this point, says Bilgic, Western capitals are not questioning Turkey’s value politically, strategically, militarily or economically for the West, but there are some voices starting to question Turkey’s position in NATO. 

What’s still in it for Turkey?

According to Dr Bilgic, Turkey has won two main points with its ongoing diplomatic balancing act betwen Russia, Ukraine and the West. 

Firstly, he says that Turkey has “put its name on the map as a defence exporter” after investing heavily in the defence industry for a decade — and the Ukraine war has shown the rest of the world that Turkish weapons can be very effective. 

“Secondly,” says Bilgic, “Ankara has managed to show to the Global South countries that Turkey does not necessarily follow the West and can have an independent foreign policy”.

So how long can Turkey walk on this tightrope without falling off? That remains the biggest question. 

“The main risk for Turkey is that if the fight is intensified and Russia starts making gains, the patience for Turkey’s balancing act in the Western capitals might run out,” Dr Bilgic argues.

“Ankara might feel pressure to join the international sanctions. This can significantly disturb Ankara’s position in the war”.



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Ukraine war: All the important developments to know today

Ukraine says it has “conquered the winter terror”, marked by intense Russian bombardments which plunged millions of people into the cold. 

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that it was “cold and dark, but we were unbreakable.”

Kulebo said he also considered that Europe had “won” because “it did not freeze without Russian gas” targeted by sanctions. 

“Our partners have stood by our side and helped us,” Kouleba noted, adding, “There is still a long way to go until final victory. But we already know how to win.”

The Secretary of the Security and Defense Council, Oleksiï Danilov, for his part wished his fellow citizens a “happy first day of the Ukrainian spring”. “So, did they manage to freeze us?” he quipped.

Meanwhile Russia says it neutralised ten Ukrainian drones sent to attack targets in occupied Crimea. This is the second day in a row that Moscow has reported a drone attack. 

Ukraine forces may pull out of key eastern city

The Ukrainian military might decide to pull troops back from the key stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to Ukraine’s president said Wednesday as Russia pursued a bloody, months-long offensive to capture the city.

“Our military is obviously going to weigh all of the options. So far, they’ve held the city, but if need be, they will strategically pull back,” Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told CNN. 

“We’re not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing.”

The battle for Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk province, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance as defenders hold out against relentless shelling and Russian troops suffer heavy casualties in the campaign to take the city.

Rodnyansky noted that Russia was using the best troops of the Wagner Group to try to encircle the city. The private military company known for brutal tactics is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a rogue millionaire with longtime links to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Prigozhin said Wednesday that he so far had seen no signs of a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city. He maintained that Kyiv has in fact been reinforcing its positions there.

“The Ukrainian army is deploying additional troops and is doing what it can to retain control of the city,” Prigozhin said. “Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are offering fierce resistance, and the fighting is getting increasingly bloody by day.”

Recent drone footage shows the scale of devastation in the city, while Zelenskyy has described it as “destroyed.”

Russia keeps door open on future talks about nuclear pact

Russia may continue to exchange information with the United States on issues related to their nuclear forces even after Moscow suspended its participation in the last remaining arms control pact between the two countries, a senior Russian diplomat said Wednesday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia has given the US Embassy formal notice about the New START treaty’s suspension after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the decision into law on Tuesday.

Ryabkov noted that Russia and the US had confidential discussions on matters related to the pact in recent days. He said Moscow could remain open to such exchanges in the future.

“We will communicate and exchange information when necessary,” Ryabkov said in comments carried by Russian news agencies.

The Russian diplomat emphasised that Russia will not end the suspension “at least until our American counterparts show readiness to abandon their hostile policy toward Russia, primarily concerning the developments in Ukraine.”

Putin announced the halt in Moscow’s participation in New START in his state-of-the-nation address last week. He argued that Moscow can’t accept US inspections of Russian nuclear sites envisaged by the pact when Washington and its NATO allies have openly declared Russia’s defeat in Ukraine as their goal.

China, Belarus presidents call for Ukraine cease-fire, talks

The presidents of China and Belarus joined Wednesday in urging a cease-fire and negotiations to bring about a political settlement to the Ukraine conflict.

The joint call came in a meeting in Beijing between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

That amounted to an endorsement of a Chinese 12-point peace proposal issued Friday that calls for the territorial integrity of all countries to be respected. The proposal does not say what would happen to the regions Russia has occupied since the invasion or give details on how the peace process should proceed, and has failed to gain much support.

“The core of China’s stance is to call for peace and encourage talks … and for the legitimate security concerns of all countries to be respected,” Xi was quoted as saying by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.

In a clear reference to the US and its allies, he added, “Relevant countries should stop politicising and using the world economy as their tool, and take measures that truly advance a cease-fire and stop to war and resolve the crisis peacefully.”

Belarus “fully agrees with and supports China’s position and proposals on a political solution to the Ukraine crisis, which is of great significance to resolving the crisis,” CCTV quoted Lukashenko as saying.

China has long had a close relationship with Lukashenko, and following their talks, the two leaders oversaw the signing of a raft of cooperation agreements in areas ranging from agriculture to customs enforcement and sports.

Slovakia basks under NATO umbrella, sends Ukraine old arms

Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the world’s biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a year ago.

The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming the first nation to send fighter jets to neighboring Ukraine — getting rid of its unwieldy Soviet-era planes at the same time.

Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad is grateful.

“I would say that the Slovak Republic is a more secure country in a less secure world,” Nad told the AP in an interview in Bratislava.

“We remember well what it was like to have occupiers on our territory,” he added, referring to the 1968 Soviet-led military invasion of former Czechoslovakia — from which Slovakia split peacefully in 1993, four years after the communist regime fell.

The country of 5.4 million hosts a battlegroup with troops from the United States, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, as NATO moved to reassure members on its eastern flank worried about a potential Russian threat.

“The message behind deploying all of those units is simple,” Czech Colonel Karel Navratil, the battlegroup commander, told the Associated Press. “Our task is deterrence … to deter a potential aggressor from spreading its aggression to NATO member states.”

Similar units have been created in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They complement another four deployed in 2017 in the three Baltic states and Poland, to expand NATO’s presence from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

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Ukraine war: Drone strikes, military drills and concert cancellations

Putin orders border restrictions after drone attacks

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials to tighten control of the border with Ukraine after a spate of drone attacks on Tuesday.

A flurry of drone attacks on Monday night and Tuesday morning targeted regions inside Russia along the border with Ukraine and deeper into the country, according to local Russian authorities. 

While Putin didn’t refer to any specific attacks in a speech in the Russian capital, his comments came hours after drone attacks targeted several areas in southern and western Russia.

A drone fell near the village of Gubastovo, 100 kilometres from Moscow, Andrei Vorobyov, governor of the region surrounding the Russian capital, said in an online statement. Russian authorities closed the airspace over St. Petersburg in response to the series of events.

Russian forces early Tuesday shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Bryansk region, local Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz said in a Telegram post. He said there were no casualties.

Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately claim responsibility for the attacks, but they similarly avoided directly acknowledging responsibility for previous strikes and sabotage.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine used drones to attack facilities in the Krasnodar region and neighbouring Adygea. It said the drones were brought down by electronic warfare assets, adding that one of them crashed into a field and another diverted from its designated flight path and missed an infrastructure facility it was supposed to attack.

Also Tuesday, several Russian television stations aired a missile attack warning that officials blamed on a hacking attack.

Ukrainian military intensifies drills as Russia pushes to capture Donbas

The Ukrainian military has increased its daily military exercises in Kupiansk, as Russian forces have intensified the push to capture the industrial region of Donbas.

The step-up, combining reserve tank and the infantry assault units, is an effort to increase synchronization and speed to halt Russian offensives in the northeastern front, said Colonel Petro Skyba, commander of the 3rd Separate Tank Iron Brigade.

Gruelling artillery battles have increased in recent weeks in the vicinity of Kupiansk, a strategic town on the eastern edge of Kharkiv province by the banks of the Oskil River.

Russia ramped up attacks earlier in February after deploying three major divisions to the area. Fighting is focused northeast of Kupiansk, where Kremlin troops have gone on the offensive with marginal territorial gains. Ukrainian fortifications have so far deterred major advances, Ukrainian senior military officials said.

“The enemy is constantly increasing its efforts, but our troops are also increasing their efforts there, making timely replacements and holding the defence,” said Brig. Gen. Dmytro Krasylnkov, head of the Kharkiv military administration.

Victory in Kupiansk is believed to be a determinant of the next phase of the conflict. If Russia succeeds in pushing Ukrainian forces west of the river, it would clear the path for a significant offensive farther south where the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donestk meet.

Similarly, if the Ukrainian defence holds up, it could reveal Russian vulnerabilities and enable a counteroffensive.

Despite the risks, the Ukrainian defence line is constantly supported by the local civilians, who have refused to leave the town despite frequent Russian bombardments.

Offering Ukrainian servicemen a place to rest is common, said Olena Klymko, a civilian whose house suffered damage due to a Russian missile.

“How can we say no?” she asked. “They are out there fighting for us.”

Russian artist’s concert cancelled in Taiwan

The National Taiwan Symphony Orchestra on Tuesday cancelled a concert by Russian soprano Anna Netrebko, who has been criticised since the war in Ukraine began over her past support for President Vladimir Putin.

The orchestra did not give a precise reason for this cancellation, simply explaining that it had discussions with the singer’s representatives because of “concerns within Taiwanese society.”

Taiwan’s culture ministry said it supports the concert’s cancellation, telling Central News Agency that “there is no room for vagueness about Taiwan’s attitude to the war.”

Netrebko had been among the first Russian artists singled out after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, for not having clearly denounced the war.

The prestigious Metropolitan Opera in New York, of which she was the star, then dropped her for an indefinite period. She then announced that she was temporarily withdrawing from the opera scene.

In March 2022, Netrebko finally condemned “expressly the war against Ukraine”, which led to her being dropped from performances in Russia. 

Despite this stance, her upcoming concert in Taipei drew criticism in Taiwan, where Ukraine enjoys massive public support.

The issue is sensitive amongst the Taiwanese population as the Russian offence against Ukrainian territory has heightened fears that China will carry out its threats to take control of Taiwan. 

Slovenian band’s concert cancelled in Ukraine following controversial statement

A planned concert by Slovenia’s popular band Laibach in Ukraine next month has been cancelled after the group angered Ukrainians with controversial remarks.

Ukrainians were angered by Laibach’s statement to the Guardian newspaper that called the war “a cynical proxy war for the geostrategic interests” of world powers.

Slovenia’s STA news agency said many Ukrainians posting on Facebook compared Laibach’s statement to Russian state propaganda that portrays the invasion as a conflict with NATO.

The iconic band, known for using military-style imagery and totalitarian symbols, had been due to perform in Ukraine’s capital at the end of March.

The band said the concert aimed to show support for the Ukrainian people during the war, but organisers said its remarks caused “controversy” and discord, forcing the cancellation.

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How long can Moldova stay neutral when fighting takes place next door?

Moldova closed its airspace for two hours this week. The reason, according to local media, was “security considerations” amid Russia’s invasion of Moldova’s neighbouring Ukraine and accusations voiced by President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin intended to seize power in the Republic.

Article 11 of the constitution of Moldova states: “The Republic proclaims its permanent neutrality, […] does not allow the deployment of military forces of other states on its territory.”

Following Russian military action in the south of Ukraine in 2022 near the Moldovan border and with the prospect of Russian missiles violating the Republic’s airspace, should we expect its foreign policy stance to change?

Will Moldova eventually follow in Ukraine’s footsteps and reconsider its neutral non-aligned status in favour of Euro-Atlantic integration and forming a strategic partnership with the European Union and the United States?

Moldova and NATO: A short history

Relations with NATO began in 1992 when Moldova joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1997, this forum replaced the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, which brings together allies and partner countries in the Euro-Atlantic region.

Bilateral cooperation began when Moldova joined the Partnership for Peace program in 1994. In 2006, the Republic agreed to its first two-year Individual Partnership Action Plan. 

At the alliance summit in Wales in September 2014, allied leaders offered increased support, advice and assistance to Moldova as part of the new Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative. An individual package of measures was agreed upon in June 2015.

At the request of the Moldovan government, a NATO Civilian Liaison Office was established in Chisinau in December 2017 to promote practical cooperation and help support reforms in the country. 

But according to Marie Dumoulin, a former career diplomat and today director of the Wider Europe Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Moldova would have a hard time joining the alliance because of its stance on neutrality. 

“Because of the neutral status enshrined in the constitution, the country cannot be a member of any military alliance,” she said. 

“Therefore, even if Moldova has maintained and continues to maintain relations with NATO, it is not a member of this alliance or of the Collective Security Treaty Organization formed around Russia. 

“At present, it has no desire to join any of these alliances. And the overwhelming majority of the population is not in favour of either NATO or CSTO membership.”

“At the same time, “the discussion about rapprochement with NATO and – more generally – about an intensification of security cooperation with Western countries really began in the context of the invasion of Ukraine, because it directly affects the security of Moldova. 

“And Chisinau is aware of the limits of its own defence capabilities, so there is a strengthening of cooperation, especially with the European Union, and a renewed discussion of a possible deepening of cooperation with NATO,” the French political scientist notes.

A possible “Ukrainian scenario”?

How likely is it that Moldova will reconsider its attitude toward neutrality after Russia invaded Ukraine?

“Ukraine has always been in a somewhat different position,” Dumoulin said. “Despite the neutrality clause in the constitution, there has always been a strong current of those who wanted to eventually join NATO.

“That is, this issue was much more discussed in Ukraine even before the annexation of Crimea, and the annexation turned public opinion in favour of membership in the alliance. The issue was not and is not discussed so much in Moldova, it is really not the main topic in the debate on public policy.”

But Chisinau may be pushed in this direction. In the event of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, Dumoulin added, “we cannot rule out Chisinau’s desire to reaffirm its position of neutrality in order to stay as far away from this war as possible. 

“At this stage, Russian attempts to advance to Mykolaiv, Odesa, and, ultimately, to the borders of Moldova, have been unsuccessful.

“So far there is no information about a new offensive. In this regard, the Moldovan authorities remain calm. On the other hand, there is a concern in Chisinau about other levers of destabilisation that Russia has.”

A number of analysts do not rule out that the “frozen conflict” in Transnistria — a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Moldova — could be a trigger for Moldova to give up its neutrality in the future.

Today, this conflict is under relative control. Not a single shot has been fired since August 1992, when the confrontation between Chisinau and the unrecognised “Transnistria Moldovan Republic” entered a peaceful phase. 

“But there is a Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria,” Dumoulin notes. 

Russia pledged to leave the region in the late 1990s. But, it has not fulfilled its obligation so far. Many draw a parallel between the creation of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in 2014 and today’s full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Key areas of cooperation now

At the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, the allies agreed on an adapted support package to help Moldova implement its own long-term security and defence modernisation plans. Today, Moldova cooperates with NATO in a number of ways. 

For example, the Alliance is individually supporting Chisinau’s efforts to reform and modernise the army through the Defence and Related Security Capacity Building Initiative and through the Defence Education Enhancement Programme.

Will Russia push Moldova into the arms of NATO?

President Sandu’s recent statements about Moscow’s alleged plans to overthrow the pro-European government in Chisinau have added to previous accusations that Russia has deliberately provoked an energy crisis in Moldova.

“Russia’s possibilities to destabilise Moldova are not new,” notes Dumoulin, “they are related not only to the situation in Ukraine but also to Russia’s very strong influence in the Republic, especially in the political sphere. 

“There is also economic dependence, first of all, energy dependence. Moldova has made a lot of efforts to get out of this dependence, but so far it remains vulnerable.”

Moscow has been repeatedly accused of a deliberate campaign of disinformation. A number of analysts have linked Moscow with the Shor opposition party in Moldova, headed by businessman Ilan Shor.

According to Dumoulin, this political force “can be manipulated by Russia to provoke demonstrations and anti-government movements in Moldova. 

“The economic situation is extremely difficult because of rising energy prices, because of the consequences of the war, in particular, the influx of a large number of refugees. Thus, a fertile ground for protest movements is created.”

Prospects for Moldovan-NATO relations

“Moldova has not officially expressed a desire to join NATO,” Marie Dumoulin said. “There is no consensus among its population on this issue either, and I think this largely explains the caution of the Moldovan authorities. 

“They don’t want to start a discussion that could polarize public opinion in a situation that is already extremely difficult.”

Nevertheless, this situation could affect Moldova’s rapprochement with the European Union, which supports it in every possible way, especially with regard to Chisinau’s independence with respect to Moscow. 

Much, according to Dumoulin, depends on how Moldovan public opinion about Russia will develop because there is still a significant part of the population that is sympathetic to Russia. On the other hand, the evolution of public opinion toward the European Union and NATO could also be decisive.

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