Shrinking food stamp benefits for families mean yet another challenge for retailers

A worker carries bananas inside the Walmart SuperCenter in North Bergen, New Jersey.

Eduardo Munoz Alvarez | AP

For some shoppers who already struggle to cover grocery bills, the budget is getting tighter.

This month, pandemic-related emergency funding from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, is ending in most states, leaving many low-income families with less to spend on food.

More than 41 million Americans receive funding for food through the federal program. For those households, it will amount to at least $95 less per month to spend on groceries. Yet for many families, the drop will be even steeper since the government assistance scales up to adjust for household size and income.

For grocers like Kroger, big-box players like Walmart and discounters like Dollar General, the drop in SNAP dollars adds to an already long list of worries about the year ahead. It’s likely to pressure a weakening part of retailers’ business: sales of discretionary merchandise, which are crucial categories for retailers, as they tend to drive higher profits.

Major companies, including Best Buy, Macy’s and Target, have shared cautious outlooks for the year, saying shoppers across incomes have become more careful about spending on items such as clothing or consumer electronics as they pay more for necessities such as housing and food.

Food, in particular, has emerged as one of the hardest-hit inflation categories, up 10.2% year-over-year as of February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“You still have to feed the same number of mouths, but you have to make choices,” said Karen Short, a retail analyst for Credit Suisse.

“So what you’re doing is you’re definitely having to cut back on discretionary,” she said.

The stretch has made it impossible for some to afford even basic items. It’s still too early to see the full impact of the reduced SNAP benefits, said North Texas Food Bank CEO Trisha Cunningham, but food pantries in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have started to see more first-time guests. The nonprofit helps stock shelves at pantries that serve 13 counties.

Demand for meals has ballooned, even from pandemic levels, she said. The nonprofit used to provide about 7 million meals per month before the pandemic and now provides between 11 million and 12 millions meals per month.

“We knew these [extra SNAP funds] were going away and they were going to be sunsetted,” she said. “But what we didn’t know is that we were going to have the impact of inflation to deal with on top of this.”

Shifting market share

So far, retail sales in the first two months of the year have proven resilient, even as consumers contend with inflation and follow a stimulus-fueled boom in spending in the early years of the pandemic. On a year-over-year basis, retail spending was up 17.6% in February, according to the Commerce Department.

Some of those higher sales have come from higher prices. The annual inflation rate is at 6% as of February, according to the Labor Department’s tracking of the consumer price index, which measures a broad mix of goods and services. That index has also gotten a lift from restaurant and bar spending, which has bounced back from earlier in the pandemic and begun to compete more with money spent on goods.

Yet retailers themselves have pointed out cracks in consumer health, noting rising credit card balances, more sales of lower-priced private label brands and shoppers’ heightened response to discounts and promotions.

Some retailers mentioned the SNAP funding decrease on earnings calls, too.

Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen called it “a meaningful headwind for the balance of the year.”

“We’re hopeful that everybody will work together to continue or find additional money,” he said on the company’s earnings call with investors earlier this month. “But as you know, because of inflation, there’s a lot of people whose budget is under strain.”

Credit Suisse’s Short said for lower-income families, the food cost squeeze comes on top of climbing expenses for nearly everything else, whether that’s paying the electric bill or filling up the gas tank.

“I don’t think I could tell you what a tailwind is for the consumer,” she said. “There just isn’t a single tailwind in my view.”

Emergency allotments of SNAP benefits previously ended in 18 states, which could preview the effect of the decreased funding nationwide. In a research note for Credit Suisse, Short found an average decline in SNAP spending of 28% across several retailers from the date the additional funding ended.

Some grocers and big-box retailers could feel the impact more than others. According to an analysis by Credit Suisse, Grocery Outlet has the highest exposure to SNAP with an estimated 13% of its 2021 sales coming from the program. That’s followed by BJ’s Wholesale with about 9%, Dollar General at about 9%, Dollar Tree at about 7%, Walmart’s U.S. business with 5.5% and Kroger with about 5%, according to the bank’s estimates, which were based on company filings and government data.

Retailers that draw a higher-income customer base, such as Target and Costco, should feel comparatively less effect, Short said. If nothing else, the dwindling SNAP dollars could shift shoppers from one retailer to another, she said, as major players seek to grab up market share and undercut on prices.

Fewer dollars to go around

Another factor could make for a bumpier start to retailers’ fiscal year, which typically kicks off in late January or early February: Tax refunds are trending smaller this year.

The average refund amount was $2,972, down 11% from an average payment of $3,352 as of the same point in last year’s filing season, according to IRS data as of the week of March 10. That average payout could still change over time, though, as the IRS continues to process millions of Americans’ returns ahead of the mid-April deadline.

Dollar General Chief Financial Officer John Garratt said on an earnings call this month that the discounter is monitoring how its shoppers respond to the winding down of emergency SNAP benefits and lower tax refunds.

He said stores did not see a change in sales patterns when emergency SNAP funds previously ended in some states, but he added that “the customer is in a different place now.”

Tax refunds can act as a cash infusion for retailers, as some people spring for big-ticket items like a pair of brand-name sneakers or a sleek new TV, said Marshal Cohen, chief industry advisor for The NPD Group, a market research company.

This year, though, even if people get their regular refund, they may use it to pay bills or whittle down debt, he said.

One bright spot for retailers could be an 8.7% cost-of-living increase in Social Security payments. Starting in January, recipients received on average $140 more per month.

However, Cohen said, the cash influx might not be enough to offset pressure on younger consumers, particularly those between ages 18 and 24, who have just started jobs and face milestone expenses like signing a lease or buying a car.

“Everything’s costing them so much more for the early, big spends of their consumer career,” he said.

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Top Wall Street analysts like these stocks for maximum returns

A logo of Meta Platforms Inc. is seen at its booth, at the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups, at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France June 17, 2022.

Benoit Tessier | Reuters

As the earnings season rolls on, many companies are hinting at a challenging year ahead.

Meanwhile, it can be intimidating to invest in such a stressful environment. To ease the process, here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street’s top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performances. 

Alphabet 

After languishing in the stock market last year due to numerous factors affecting the tech sector, Alphabet (GOOGL) will report its seasonally weakest quarter of the year on Thursday. From relatively low digital ad spending and regulatory crackdowns on digital ads to increasing costs and interest rates, Google endured it all. Needless to say, the company expects sequential growth deceleration in the fourth quarter. 

Nonetheless, Monness, Crespi, Hardt, & Co. analyst Brian White expects the results to be in line with his expectations. The analyst anticipates a 10% sequential sales increase, implying a quarter-over-quarter deceleration in growth. This is notably lower growth than what is usually expected of a typical Alphabet fourth-quarter report (17% on average in the past four December quarters).  

However, although Google Advertising revenue growth was significantly hurt by the slowdown in digital ad spending, White notes that “Alphabet proved more resilient than Meta and Snap that were   disproportionately impacted by Apple’s privacy initiatives, most notably App Tracking Transparency, along with other factors.” 

The analyst expects year-over-year digital ad spending comps to improve in the second half of the year. Also, White’s estimates suggest that Google Ad revenues should return to growth in the second quarter of 2023. (See Alphabet Blogger Opinions & Sentiment on TipRanks) 

White reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $135. The analyst holds the 66th position among almost 8,300 analysts followed on TipRanks. His ratings have been profitable 64% of the time, and each rating has generated an 18% average return.

Meta Platforms 

Another technology name in Brian White’s list is Meta Platforms (META), which is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday “after taking a savage beating in 2022,” according to the analyst’s words. 

The headwinds that the company faced last year, including Apple’s privacy initiatives with App Tracking Transparency, the slowdown in advertisement spending, exorbitant investments in the metaverse, and regulatory scrutiny, are not expected to entirely dissipate in 2023. (See Meta Platforms Website Traffic on TipRanks) 

Over the past 52-weeks, Meta shares were cut nearly in half. Gains in early 2023, are helping to trim last year’s losses.

However, a leaner cost structure, thanks to its significantly downsized business and other initiatives, as well as softening challenges, will be a relief this year. Additionally, in the long run, White expects Meta to benefit from the secular digital ad trend and innovations in the metaverse.  

“With sales up 34% per annum over the past five years, EPS turning in a 32% CAGR and generating an   attractive operating margin, we believe Meta Platforms should trade at a premium to the market and tech sector in the long run; however, we expect the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment will weigh on advertising spending in the coming quarters,” observed White, who reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $150. 

WNS 

India-based business process management company WNS (WNS) is next on our list. The company’s solid sales pipeline reflects a healthy demand environment that overshadows economic headwinds. This gives Barrington analyst Vincent Colicchio the “confidence in its ability to generate solid revenue and adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2023 and beyond.” 

The company recently reported its quarterly earnings, where it beat Street estimates, thanks to the strong demand for its services and products. “As of the close of fiscal Q3/23, the company’s sales pipeline was strong and at record levels and sales cycles declined sequentially, reflecting strong demand. Sales cycles have declined in recent quarters as clients accelerated decisions to improve efficiency ahead of a potential recession,” observed Colicchio. (See WNS Stock Chart on TipRanks) 

The analyst was encouraged by the fact that WNS did not realize any meaningful pressures from the economic headwinds that have hung heavily on peers. Challenges like volume pressures, productivity issues, delays and cancelations, etc., did not deter the business from its growth path. 

Colicchio reiterated a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $97 and even raised his fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 earnings-per-share forecasts to $3.86 and $4.14 from $3.78 and $4.12, respectively. 

The analyst currently stands at #282 among almost 8,300 analysts tracked by TipRanks. Moreover, 62% of his ratings have been profitable, each generating a 13.1% average return. 

BRC 

BRC (BRCC) is a unique company. The operator of the Black Rifle Coffee Company is founded and led by military veterans. The company was built to serve premium coffee, content and merchandise to active military, veterans and first responders. 

BRC has been on Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth‘s buy list in recent weeks. The analyst has a $19 price target on the company. (See BRC Insider Trading Activity on TipRanks) 

Feinseth is confident that the company is a solid emerging high-growth lifestyle investment opportunity, serving a loyal and niche customer base and offering meaningful growth opportunities through product innovation and a digitally native omnichannel distribution strategy. 

BRCC recently announced that it will “shift focus from the near-term buildout of restaurants (Outpost) and DTC (Direct-to-consumer) sales to a faster growth and higher return opportunity in the expansion of the sales of its RTD (Ready-to-drink) beverages packaged and premeasured (k-cup) coffee through an increasing FDM (food drug and mass-market) focus,” explained the TipRanks-rated 5-star analyst. 

Feinseth’s convictions can be trusted, given his 185th position among nearly 8,300 analysts in the TipRanks database. This apart, his track of 63% profitable ratings, each rating delivering 12.1% average returns, is also worth considering. 

Starbucks 

The world’s largest specialty coffee chain retailer Starbucks (SBUX) is also one of Ivan Feinseth’s favorite stocks for this year. The company continues to put its numerous growth drivers into action. This includes new product development, a global coffee alliance and ongoing store growth. Starbucks also enjoys strong brand equity and a committed customer base, which will help drive its new reinvention plan for long-term growth, according to the analyst’s observations. 

“SBUX continues to improve operating efficiencies and customer experience by leveraging ongoing   innovation, new technologies, and new store formats,” said Feinseth, reiterating a buy rating on Starbucks with a price target of $136.  

Moreover, the company’s focus on expanding its product portfolio to include new health and wellness beverages, teas, and core food offerings can boost customer traffic during later hours. (See Starbucks’ Dividend Date & History on TipRanks) 

Staying up to date with the changing industry trends, Feinseth noted that Starbucks is investing in new   digital initiatives to improve customer service, supply-chain management, its loyalty program, and mobile ordering and e-commerce capabilities.  

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