Explained | The calm after the storm for Pakistan?

A boy rides past a paramilitary check post, that was set afire by the supporters of Imran Khan, during a protest against his arrest, in Karachi, Pakistan on May 9.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

The story so far: Over the last 15 months, Pakistan faced a myriad of challenges, including confrontations between the government and the opposition, disagreements between the Parliament and the judiciary, instability in Punjab, clashes between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and the Establishment (Pakistan army), an economic meltdown, and the devastating impact of the 2022 floods. Even by Pakistan’s standards, the situation was tumultuous, with fears of a debt default and a military takeover looming on the horizon. However, a few developments in June across political, military and economic sectors suggest a semblance of normalcy returning to Pakistan.

What was the legislative development?

During the last week of June, the Parliament passed the Elections (Amendment) Act 2023, providing the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) the sole responsibility of deciding when to conduct elections. Now the ECP decides the next election date, instead of the President as was previously the case. In March 2023, the President, who was appointed by former Pakistan Prime Minister and PTI chief Imran Khan, announced the election date for the Punjab provincial assembly without consulting the Parliament. The Supreme Court supported this decision, which created a conflict between the court and the Parliament, leading to political instability. The situation played right into Mr. Khan’s hands.

However, the new legislation would inevitably result in the ECP announcing the election dates for the national and provincial assemblies at a later date during 2023. This aligns with the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition. A delayed election would suit the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), something that Mr. Khan was totally opposed to.

The new legislation also means that self-exiled former Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif can return and contest the forthcoming elections. A primary reason for PTI to insist on early elections and the PML-N to refuse it, is related to this reason. Mr. Khan believed that the existing situation favoured him in Punjab. But if Mr. Sharif is to return, and the elections get delayed, then the Sharifs would hold an edge in Punjab (and thereby also at the national level). It is now looking like an advantage for the PML-N.

What has the military done?

After the violence on May 9, where following the arrest of Mr. Khan on charges of corruption, protests by his supporters and party members quickly turned into out-of-control riots, the Establishment had come down heavily on Mr. Khan and the PTI. The June 26 address by the Inter-Services Public Relations Director General (DG-ISPR), wherein he called the May 9 incident as a ‘black chapter of Pakistan’s history’, was a part of the Establishment’s counter-attack, including taking action against those who failed to act on May 9.

Since the violence, the Establishment has taken direct action besides covert pressure. The formation of military courts to punish the perpetrators of the May 9 incident has been one part of the story. The other part is the systematic covert targeting of the PTI; leaders who were a part of Imran Khan’s close circuit and his cabinet ended up getting arrested repeatedly during May, ultimately yielding to the pressure from the Establishment. From Parvez Khattak to Shireen Mazari, many leaders who were close to Mr. Khan and formed the backbone of the PTI left the party. Jahangir Tareen, once a close aide of Mr. Khan, has even formed a new party — the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP). Thus, the Establishment successfully built a new narrative that the perpetrators behind the May 9 violence were the worst enemies of Pakistan.

Mr. Khan is now isolated and the PTI is weak with a series of desertions. Pakistan is less likely to witness the confrontational politics that Mr. Khan led during the last year. Many in Pakistan consider that it is game over for him, at least for the forthcoming elections.

Has the IMF agreed to help?

When June began, Pakistan was facing an economic meltdown and a threat of default, facing severe inflation and a foreign reserve that could sustain only for a few more months. Despite multiple review meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there was no sign of a deal. An earlier IMF programme under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was to end by June 30.

Despite numerous political bravados and expectations of “friendly countries” helping Pakistan to meet the economic crisis, Pakistan had to go back to the IMF with new estimates. On June 24, Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, announced new measures that would generate new taxes and cut government spending. The revised estimates of June aimed at lowering the original fiscal deficit target by 6.5% of the budget.

A series of high-level meetings (between the Pakistan Prime Minister and the IMF Managing Director) in June, and importantly, IMF conditions-mandated budget revisions have resolved the differences. According to the latest IMF press release, the new Stand-By-Arrangement (SBA) for $3 billion would “provide a policy anchor and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners in the period ahead.” This would mean the IMF deal would open other donor opportunities for Pakistan. Finally, Pakistan can breathe as the threat of an immediate default has now been averted.

What about the Supreme Court?

In September 2023, Pakistan’s Supreme Court will see Justice Qazi Faez Isa becoming the next Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP). He would replace the present CJP Justice Umar Ata Bandial, whose term has been highly controversial vis-à-vis his suo motu cases, actions against the present government and also his decisions within the judiciary. The government was unhappy with him. With his retirement in September 2023, and Justice Isa being the new CJP, the present government should able to breathe better.

Is the crisis over for Pakistan?

Not yet. On the political front, the fall of the PTI chairman may provide temporary relief to the ruling PDM. But the reasons behind his fall show the larger political problems plaguing Pakistan. The political instability has come to an end, not through a dialogue between political actors, but by the brutal downsizing of one party, by an extra-political institution. This has been Pakistan’s problem for the last seven decades. The PPP and the PML-N are on the same page now; with Mr. Khan gone, will they remain so?

On the economic front, Pakistan has succeeded in getting IMF aid. But the larger issues remain such as the need for macro-economic reforms, the prevailing narrow tax base etc. While Pakistan has been forced by the IMF to make adjustments, the change has to come from within. Pakistan has received temporary relief in both economic and political aspects, but only the symptoms have been addressed. The underlying causes remain unresolved.

D. Suba Chandran is Professor and Dean at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS, Bengaluru

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After criticism, ex-premier Imran Khan says his party wants Pakistan Army to be ‘strong’


The powerful army, which has ruled the coup-prone country for more than half of its 75-plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in the matters of security and foreign policy.

The powerful army, which has ruled the coup-prone country for more than half of its 75-plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in the matters of security and foreign policy.

After criticism over anti-army remarks, former prime minister Imran Khan said on Sunday that his party wants the Pakistan Army to be “strong” and his “constructive” criticism was not intended to harm the powerful force as he demanded early elections to end the political impasse in the country.

On the third day of his long march dubbed as Haqeeqi Azadi March, the 70-year-old chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led his supporters towards Islamabad while addressing them at various places, targeting his opponents for alleged corruption.

Addressing his supporters, Mr. Khan said that his criticism against the establishment had been constructive.

“I want the army to be strong. We need a strong army. My constructive criticism is not [intended] to harm them,” he asserted.

Mr. Khan also clarified that he was being misunderstood, days after he was criticised by the government for his anti-army stance that made headlines in Pakistan and India.

“India don’t misunderstand, we stand with our army,” he said, adding that the neighbouring country was celebrating after the spy agency ISI chief Lt Gen Nadeem Anjum’s press conference as it believes that the army and Imran Khan are having “a face-off”.

“I want to tell India that this army is ours and I can never be against it,” he said.

The powerful army, which has ruled the coup-prone country for more than half of its 75-plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in the matters of security and foreign policy.

Last week, Mr. Khan had admitted that he offered an extension in the tenure of Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa in March amid the opposition’s attempt to topple his government.

Mr. Khan’s remarks came after the ISI chief revealed at an unprecedented press conference on Thursday last that the army chief was given a “lucrative offer” for an indefinite extension in his tenure in March.

“If establishment believes that we should support these thieves, since you have decided to support these thieves, then sorry myself and this nation cannot support this move,” Mr. Khan said in his address at Sadhoki.

Mr. Khan also rejected as “untrue” claims made by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that the opposition leader sent him a message expressing his desire to have consultation over appointment of the army chief and elections.

“Shehbaz Sharif, you gave a statement that I sent a message to you that we should sit together and decide about the army chief… look Shehbaz Sharif listen to me I don’t talk to boot polishers,” Mr. Khan said in his address at Muridke.

Prime Minister Sharif has claimed that he has flatly rejected a proposal from his predecessor on the appointment of a successor to Army chief General Bajwa.

Mr. Bajwa, 61, who is on a three-year extension, is set to retire on November 29.

Responding to Mr. Shehbaz, Mr. Khan further questioned “what is the benefit of talking to you? What do you have to talk about?…The way you were brought in power, at first you begged the Americans then you hid in the trunk of a car, and then polished boots,” he alleged.

Mr. Khan reiterated his party’s demand for free and fair elections, saying “we only want fair and transparent elections and we will accept whatever the people of Pakistan decide.” He also asked the chief justice to establish the rule of law. “These people who are sitting on top of the law, bring them under the law,” he asked the chief justice.

He also mentioned the alleged custodial torture of his party leaders Shahbaz Gill and Azam Swati for which he has been criticizing the army and demanding probe.

“No institution is allowed to break the law of this country,” he said in a veiled reference to the powerful army.

Another popular theme which has been echoing in the long march is the murder of journalist Arshad Sharif in Kenya on the last Sunday night.

“The one who opens his mouth, who raises the voice of truth… Arshad Sharif… he is forced to leave this country… he is threatened, he is killed, just because he was standing on the right path,” he said.

The marchers plan to reach Islamabad on March 4 and PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry said that according to his estimation 1-1.5 million people will reach Islamabad.

Meanwhile, the government has set up a 13-member committee to deal with marchers. The committee is headed by interior minister Rana Sanaullah and comprises leaders from the parties which are in the coalition government.

The committee will hold its first meeting on Monday to discuss the protest march.



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