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Charles Leclerc is determined to end his long wait to convert a pole position into a race win again, but the Ferrari polesitter and his likely rivals for victory are aware the outcome of the inaugural Las Vegas GP will likely be determined by F1’s equivalent of ‘playing your cards right’.

Leclerc will head an exciting-looking mixed-up grid for lights out at 6am on Sunday – live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Showcase – after a superb qualifying performance which the Monegasque said included the “best lap I have ever done in Formula 1” during Q2.

He was not as happy with his performance in Q3, but his first lap in the shootout under the Las Vegas lights was still good enough to secure him a fifth pole position of the season and third in the last four races.

Now for the crunch. Leclerc and Ferrari’s problem has not been topping qualifying – he now has 24 poles in total in F1, the 12th most of all time – but converting them into wins.

Incredibly, none of Leclerc’s last 11 poles, dating back to the Australian GP in April 2022 have been followed up with Grand Prix victory.

It is the challenge to end that sequence and Ferrari’s trend to fall backwards from strong qualifying results – plus the unique aspects that come with racing at 10pm local time in Vegas – that are at the forefront of Leclerc’s mind.

“Without a doubt tyre management will be what will make our race great or really bad,” Leclerc told Sky F1.

“It always is like this; tyre management is always a big thing. But it’s true that with these very cold temperatures the graining will be a thing, the loss of temperatures towards the end of the run will be a big thing as well.

“But I don’t know – I felt good since the first lap in FP1 so I really hope we can convert that pole finally because there have been too many poles without converting it to victory because we didn’t have the car [to win] on race day. I hope that [on Sunday] it will be the case.”

Team-mate Carlos Sainz, who had qualified alongside Leclerc on the front row but will drop back to 12th owing to a grid penalty, took Ferrari’s only hitherto win this season the last time they raced on a street track, in Singapore in September.

Leclerc has been stuck on five career wins since July 2022 and, put to him that Vegas would be the perfect place to party after winning again, said: “That would be the dream scenario! It would make up for the season I’ve had. Looking back, every time a really good result was on the cards something happened.”

But will Verstappen and Red Bull simply cash in again?

With Ferrari denied what would have been a commanding front-row lockout by Sainz’s controversial grid drop, Max Verstappen joins Leclerc at the head of the field for what will be a short run to the opening corner at the 6am lights out.

Leclerc has been overtaken before the first turn the last two times he has started from pole – by Lando Norris in the USA and Verstappen in Mexico – and the latter will likely remain favourite for victory in most observers’ minds given he has won 17 times from 20 races this season.

Asked if Verstappen can again get ahead of Leclerc early on in Sunday’s 50-lap race, Red Bull boss Christian Horner told Sky F1: “I think it will be different here but it’s a track you can definitely overtake on. It’s going to make it interesting.”

Verstappen’s public expressions of dislike for the new Strip circuit and the glittering Las Vegas event as a whole have not shown any sign of detracting from his performance on the track so far this weekend. He finished 0.378s back on Leclerc’s pole time and said: “It felt good yesterday. I would have liked to have a bit more pace today.

“The points are [on Sunday] and it’s going to be a tough one.

“First one here, there might be Safety Cars and it’s a very long straight, so there will be a lot of racing and I hope we are good on the tyres.”

Russell on the ‘unknowns’ of the first Strip race | How many pit stops will we see?

The track temperature is expected to be around 15 degrees during the race, which starts at 10pm local time in Vegas. It is by far the coldest race of the year so the drivers will be going into unknown territory.

There may be a lack of high-speed corners but that certainly does not correspond to there being minimal tyre wear. The cold temperatures put the tyres out of their working window and can lead to severe graining.

“Going into tomorrow, it’s a total unknown. These tyres are just not working around this circuit in the race conditions,” said Mercedes’ George Russell, who will start third.

“They are totally falling apart because they are so cold. The tyres aren’t designed to work in these cold conditions. The team that comes out on top will be the team that manages to keep them alive.”

Off line, the track will be dirty but the long straights mean overtaking should be possible. However, it will not be too easy because everyone is running low rear wings, so the slipstream effect is not as substantial, similar to Monza in that respect.

Some teams have not run the hard tyre and the performance of that compound will be key to see if it is a one- or two-stop race.

“I think if you’re able to keep it [the tyres] within the threshold, it will be an easy one-stop. As soon as you go over that threshold it’s unrecoverable and you might need to do two or three stops,” continued Russell.

“Right now we are all scratching our heads, thinking how are we going to approach the race. We haven’t ran the hard tyre yet. Maybe the hard tyre is just much better than the medium and you won’t be entering that graining that we have seen on all the teams.

“You’re going to have to push the tyre to find out, but if you push it and go over the limit, you’re probably doomed. It’s a real strange one, I don’t really know how to approach the race.”

As for what Russell can do himself, he is unlikely to be battling for the same piece of tarmac as Lewis Hamilton for the first time in a while.

With a strong start, Russell can maybe feature near the front in the opening laps with Verstappen and Leclerc, but he is likely going to be looking over his shoulder due to a lack of outright speed compared to Red Bull and Ferrari.

Russell has only had one podium this year, at the Spanish Grand Prix in June, and simply wants a race with no issues.

“I just want a clean race to be honest. It’s probably been the scrappiest season of my life,” he said.

“Every clean race weekend I’ve had has been when the car was slow and every time the car has been quick, everything was up in the air whether it’s mistakes on my side or unfortunate strategy or DNFs.

“I just want a clean race. I want to get these two races over and done with. We have to keep an eye on Ferrari. They are only 20 points behind us, probably should have been on for a one-two.

“Charles is definitely the favourite, so we need damage limitation but if there’s an opportunity, we will go for it.”

The Sky F1 pundits on the race-day tyre conundrum

Jenson Button:

“The thing is, to stop front-right graining you push that tyre less. Then you go through a stage, then it’s fine to push it a bit harder.

“But while everyone is doing that there is going to be one or two who are going to go, ‘hang on, I can make up one or two places here’. Fernando [Alonso] comes to mind and a few others.

“So it’s going to be a really mixed bag out there. Really interesting to hear George [Russell] say they haven’t run the hard tyre yet and they think they are going to run it in the race.

“It’s so up in the air, they’re really going to have to think on their feet. Strategists are going to be working flat-out as well all the way through the race.”

Danica Patrick:

“It just seems everyone is a little confused why they are fast, why they are not fast.

“What to look for is if someone drops off [in pace]. If they grain their tyres, that’s the problem.”

What does the mixed-up starting order have in store?

The other major point of intrigue for the race is the unusual mixed-up order the drivers will line up in on the grid.

While the Leclerc-Verstappen-Russell front three is not especially unfamiliar, there are many surprises behind after a session in which some of the grid’s usual midfield drivers and cars outperformed a selection of the sport’s biggest hitters.

Pierre Gasly is fourth for Alpine – his best starting berth since 2021 – with the Williams pair of Alex Albon and Logan Sargeant impressing in fifth and sixth places.

Valtteri Bottas is a joint-season-best seventh for Alfa Romeo and Haas’ Kevin Magnussen is eighth.

They are all ahead of Hamilton (10th), Red Bull’s Sergio Perez (11th) and the demoted Sainz (12th), along with both McLarens (Lando Norris is 15th and Oscar Piastri 18th) with the grid’s hitherto most in-form team behind Red Bull experiencing a shock double-Q1 exit.

When to watch Sunday’s Las Vegas GP live on Sky Sports F1 and Sky Showcase

Sunday November 19

• 4:30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Las Vegas GP build-up (also on Sky Showcase)
• 6am: THE LAS VEGAS GRAND PRIX (also on Sky Showcase)
• 8am: Chequered Flag: Las Vegas GP reaction (also on Sky Showcase)
• 9am: Ted’s Notebook (also on Sky Showcase)

Watch the whole Las Vegas GP weekend live on Sky Sports F1 with lights out on Sunday at 6am. Stream F1 on Sky Sports with NOW

Amid all of the glitz and glamour in Las Vegas, there is a Grand Prix to be won and you are probably thinking it’s going to be another Max Verstappen and Red Bull walkover.

Well, think again. New tracks in F1 are always a head-scratcher for the teams and engineers because they can’t rely on any past data from the track.

Vegas being a street circuit makes the track hard to learn for the drivers too because one mistake and you are in the wall.

Verstappen comes into the weekend looking to equal Sebastian Vettel’s 53 career wins, which would put him joint third on the all-time Grand Prix winners’ rankings, with Michael Schumacher (91) and Lewis Hamilton (103) only having more.

His confidence will be at as high as Vegas’ Stratosphere Tower but even he will have some big obstacles to overcome if he wants to make it three wins from three in the USA this year.

Coldest F1 race ever?

Us Brits love to talk about the weather, it’s a copout when it comes to small talk. As excited as everyone is about the Las Vegas Grand Prix, most people won’t be too happy about the single digit temperatures at night.

In the day, temperatures will be around 20 Celsius, but this will drop to 8-10 Celsius at night, when practice, qualifying and the race take place.

The coldest F1 race was the 1978 Canadian Grand Prix when an air temperature of five Celsius was recorded in Montreal. It’s no surprise to see Pirelli have brought the softest tyre compound to Vegas but it’s going to be a nightmare for the teams to build tyre temperature.

Motorsport fans will know that one of the challenges of the famous Le Mans 24 Hours race is the tyres cool down on the long straights, something that will also be a problem in Vegas because there are three lengthy straights, including a 1.181mile (1.900km) flat-out section on the Las Vegas strip.

No event this year has seen temperatures anywhere near as what’s forecast for Vegas, so the teams that can fire up their tyres quickly, like we sometimes see in the rain, will have a big advantage.

“It’ll just depend on exactly how cold it is,” said Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin. “If the track is down in single figures, that’s often a region where you go winter testing.

“You do a run, it’s very difficult for the tyres to either get them switched on, or there may be graining and things. And then sometimes you just wait until it warms up a bit. So actually having to sort of race and qualify in those conditions, it will be interesting.

“You just try and identify the risks with the new circuit, work out what your contingencies will be, whether you need any sort of specific car spec to deal with that and we’re going through that at the moment.

“But as I said, if it’s at the very cold end of predictions, it’s difficult to know how the tyres are going to work.”

Will a Red Bull weakness be exposed?

Red Bull openly got things wrong for the heat and humidity in Singapore earlier this year, the only event they have failed to win. Vegas is at the other extreme end of the spectrum, cold and not many corners.

One of the strengths of Red Bull this year is the tyre wear, or lack of. In the hands of Verstappen, he is able to set a searing pace without too much tyre degradation and has cruised to victory on multiple occasions.

However, it might mean in the cold temperatures, which we haven’t really seen this year, Red Bull are vulnerable, especially over one lap, because they can’t generate enough tyre temperature.

Remember Sergio Perez’s Saturday at the Australian Grand Prix? I don’t blame you if you don’t. He had a nightmare day after going off three times in final practice and crashed out in Q1.

Perez’s actual accident was likely down to a problem with the engine, but the way he struggled in practice, and Verstappen’s own drivability woes that weekend, suggests the combination of cold weather and the 2023 Red Bull F1 car may not add up.

Temperatures in Melbourne were around the 16-20 Celsius mark and we haven’t seen colder conditions in the dry this season, therefore any Red Bull weakness in the cold hasn’t been fully exposed.

“We have no experience there. We don’t know the track grip, it is all new, so maybe it will give a few surprises,” commented Verstappen, who has won a record 17 races this season.

So who could beat Red Bull?

Lando Norris is in the form of his life with four podiums from the last five events. The one time he wasn’t in the top three saw him brilliantly fly through the field in Mexico to finish fifth from 17th.

But, the biggest weakness of the McLaren car is slow-speed corners, which is going to be a problem around Las Vegas, where most of the turns are slow.

That said, McLaren didn’t think they would be competitive last time out in Brazil, where there are consecutive slow-speed corners, but Norris is playing down his chances.

“I don’t think we were expecting to be as competitive in Brazil as we have been. So we’re still surprising ourselves. I gave up on guessing where we’re going to be nowadays,” said Norris.

“I mean, probably after Bahrain I didn’t want to think of where we’re going to be. But, it comes and goes. I think everyone expected Mercedes to be extremely strong in Brazil and they were nowhere.

“[Everyone] expected Ferrari to be a bit more competitive and weren’t, so I think no one really knows. Everyone just guesses and presumes but no one knows until we just get on track. So just let’s wait and see.”

Ferrari are the only team to beat Red Bull this year and I’m going to roll the dice and say they will push Verstappen for the win this weekend.

The most similar track to Las Vegas is Monza – long straights and slow-speed corners – where Carlos Sainz took pole position.

It was clear at Monza that the Ferrari has good mechanical grip and the drivers have confidence when flicking the car from left to right in the chicanes over the kerbs.

We saw this at Singapore too when Sainz was able to ride on top of the kerbs without any instability, which helped him on his way to victory as he held off Norris and the two Mercedes.

Charles Leclerc is a demon over one lap, especially on street tracks, just look at some of his laps around Baku and Monaco from the last five years – two of the most challenging venues on the F1 calendar.

He will be eager to bounce back from an engine issue which lost the car’s hydraulics last time out in Brazil and the very best drivers can respond from setbacks with a big performance.

What about Mercedes?

Toto Wolff labelled Brazil as Mercedes’ “worst weekend” since they returned to F1 in 2010 as George Russell retired and Lewis Hamilton dropped down the order to eighth.

Worryingly, Mercedes were down in the speed traps at Interlagos, which doesn’t bode well for the long straights in Las Vegas. It’s likely that Brazil was an outlier as Mercedes set the car up wrongly and the ride height was too high, following their disqualification in USA two weeks earlier.

Traditionally, Mercedes fare well in cold conditions and Hamilton is exceptional on the brakes, another key area to crack in Las Vegas with five big braking zones.

Hamilton has the ability to brake very late and his the brakes hard, without locking up, almost rolling the car into the corner, but still has good exit speed. That feeling is something you can’t teach and if we get a repeat of the slippery Turkey 2020 conditions, where Hamilton claimed a seventh world title, Mercedes could come into the game.

The likelihood though is that the actual track surface will have enough grip and it will just be about bedding the tyres in, perhaps doing multiple warm-up laps in qualifying before going for a flying lap.

When to watch the Las Vegas GP live on Sky Sports

Thursday November 16

• 5:30am: Drivers’ Press Conference (reshown at 8am and 10:45am)
• 1:45pm: Las Vegas GP Opening Ceremony

Friday November 17

• 4am: Las Vegas GP Practice One (session starts at 4.30am)
• 7:45am: Las Vegas GP Practice Two (session starts at 8am)
• 9:15am: The F1 Show: Las Vegas

Saturday November 18

• 4:15am: Las Vegas GP Practice Three (session starts at 4.30am)
• 7am: Las Vegas Grand Prix Qualifying build-up (also on Sky Showcase)
• 8am: Las Vegas GP Qualifying (also on Sky Showcase)
• 10am: Ted’s Qualifying Notebook

Sunday November 19

• 4:30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Las Vegas GP build-up (also on Sky Showcase)
• 6am: THE LAS VEGAS GRAND PRIX (also on Sky Showcase)
• 8am: Chequered Flag: Las Vegas GP reaction (also on Sky Showcase)
• 9am: Ted’s Notebook (also on Sky Showcase)

Get ready for the big one: Formula 1 in Las Vegas! See drivers race down the Strip, and past landmarks like Caesars Palace and the Bellagio, on F1’s newest street track. Watch the whole Las Vegas GP weekend live on Sky Sports F1, starting this Friday with lights out on Sunday at 6am. Stream F1 on Sky Sports with NOW

The Sky Sports F1 Podcast is your one-stop shop to stay across all the biggest stories in Formula 1; download and subscribe via Spotify, Apple, Spreaker and listen to the latest episode via the podcast player below

Damon Hill has expressed doubt over whether the Mercedes aerodynamics department is capable of closing the gap to Red Bull under Formula 1’s current regulations.

Red Bull have dominated since radical changes to the regulations were introduced at the start of the 2022 campaign, romping to back-to-back constructors’ titles after Mercedes had won the previous eight in a row.

Mercedes compounded their problems by retaining their flawed 2022 design concept for the 2023 campaign, before finally moving away from it – as much as possible under the sport’s budget cap – in the early stages of the season after realising they were once more significantly off the pace.

While the expectation is that Mercedes will move towards a design more similar to the class-leading RB19 for next year, Hill appears to have doubt over whether they are capable of executing the changes.

“My anxiety is this, which is that for a long time, Mercedes’ dominance really was down to their power unit. They had the best power unit for a very long time,” Hill told the Sky Sports F1 Podcast.

“And the aerodynamics were always slightly different to Red Bull’s. And if you remember towards the end of the previous Formula 1 regulations, they persisted with their relatively flat looking rake on the car, whereas Red Bull were absolutely huge.

“They led the way and everyone started following Red Bull with this very high rake. It looked like a rat running along the car. It had a very high back.

“But Mercedes stuck persistently or doggedly with their with their other… they looked like they were running a different aero concept on their car in the previous regulations, and then along come a new set of regulations…

“What I’m saying is, is the Mercedes aero department missing a trick here?

“And they’ve lost quite a few good aero people to other teams as well, over time.”

Hill’s comments come the week after Mike Elliott left his position as Mercedes chief technical officer, months after he had been moved away from the role of technical director.

Schiff: How can Mercedes be outperformed by customers?

Mercedes’ decision to change design comes significantly later than some other teams, with the likes of Aston Martin and McLaren, both of whom have their engines supplied by Mercedes, appearing to have benefitted hugely from conforming towards Red Bull’s design.

While their in-season development has let them down, Aston Martin surprisingly came from seventh in last year’s constructors’ standings to start the 2023 season as Red Bull’s closest challengers.

Meanwhile, updates brought to the McLaren midway through the campaign have established Lando Norris as world champion Max Verstappen’s most consistent challenger over the second half of the season.

Naomi Schiff told the Sky Sports F1 Podcast: “You’ve got to ask how has a team like McLaren, who from at least the power unit perspective is a customer team of Mercedes, how have they so dramatically been able to turn it around? How were Aston at the beginning of the season, so dramatically able to turn it around and why is a team like Mercedes still struggling?

“Obviously, they didn’t bite the bullet at the beginning of the year or during the winter period last year to completely change their concept, and I think there are some major regrets about that because they could be much further forward today.

“But when you’re essentially working on a mechanical base that is faulty and you’re just trying to make the best of a situation, it’s not going to be great.

“At the end of the day, they’re a team who’s won multiple world championships. They know how to build a car.

“I have some faith that they will be able over this winter to turn their situation around. But then again, as I say, Red Bull is so far up the road and they’re doing the same thing over the winter period.

“So it’s always going to be a question mark to see where they end up next year.”

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Get ready for the big one: Formula 1 in Las Vegas! See drivers race down the Strip, and past landmarks like Caesars Palace and the Bellagio, on F1’s newest street track. Watch the whole Las Vegas GP weekend live on Sky Sports F1 on November 17-19. Stream F1 on Sky Sports with NOW