Tag: Estonia

The Kremlin puts Baltic leaders on ‘wanted’ list for challenging its worldview

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The Kremlin placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and other Baltic officials on a list of wanted criminals on Monday in a move aimed at preserving Russia’s view of its glorious past from present-day challenges. The Kremlin said Kallas was put on the list for her efforts to remove WWII-era monuments to Soviet soldiers, moves seen by Moscow as unlawful and “an insult to history”.

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Russia has a track record of putting foreign officials on wanted lists, but this latest move makes Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas the first foreign head of government to be sought by Russian police. Estonian Secretary of State Taimar Peterkop and Lithuanian Culture Minister Simonas Kairys are also on the list, along with dozens of other Baltic and Polish politicians.

Kallas and Peterkop made the list because of their efforts to remove monuments to Soviet soldiers who served in World War II, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was blunt, saying the move was a response to those who have taken “hostile action toward historic memory and our country”.

A Russian security source told the TASS state news agency that the Kremlin is seeking to prosecute Kallas and Peterkop for the “destruction and defacement of monuments [honouring] Soviet soldiers” along with the Lithuanian minister of culture, Simonas Kairys.

“These wanted notices are Russia’s way of saying: ‘You come under Russian legislation and we consider you still, more or less, part of the Russian Empire,’” says historian Cécile Vaissié, professor of Russian and Soviet studies at Rennes-ll University.

“It’s simply provocation and an insult to an independent, autonomous country.”

Moscow has issued such wanted notices in the past, for instance, against exiled writer Boris Akunin over his condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Akunin was accused of “terrorism” and placed on the Kremlin’s list of “foreign agents”.

The Kremlin’s list is long indeed.

Meta spokesman and Ukrainian farmer on the list

More than 96,000 people – including over 31,000 Russians and nearly 4,000 Ukrainians – are on a Russian wanted list, according to the independent Russian news outlet Mediazona, which published a compilation of various Russian interior ministry databases on Monday.

The range of people targeted is wide. The list includes Andy Stone, spokesman for Meta (parent company of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram), accused of “supporting terrorism”. The Polish president of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Piotr Hofmanski, is also on the list. His name was added after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023 for the Russian president’s role in the deportation of Ukrainian children.

Given the war in Ukraine, it’s no surprise that the majority of foreigners targeted by Russian law enforcement agencies are Ukrainians. Mediazona has identified at least 176 people “prosecuted in absentia” for various reasons: participation in the war, links with Ukrainian authorities, public statements. The list includes the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zaluzhny, and even a Ukrainian farmer who supported Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and made unflattering remarks about Putin.

Some 59 Latvian MPs – two-thirds of the parliament – are also under investigation after voting in May 2022 to withdraw from an agreement with Russia on the preservation of Soviet memorials. The parliamentary vote, taken a few months after the start of the war in Ukraine, was followed by the demolition of a Soviet-era monument in the capital, Riga.

“All these wanted notices give the impression of a catch-all approach, a hodge-podge of people supposedly hostile to Russia and against whom it is taking action,” notes Marie Dumoulin, programme director at the European Council for International Relations think tank.

Only one version of history

For Dumoulin, there is “no doubt that Russian prosecutors can support their contentions for each of these people”. But she has reservations about Kaja Kallas: “The case of the Estonian prime minister seems to me to be legally a little shaky: to single out foreign public figures on the basis of their discourse on history, that’s quite a reach.”

The prime minister, a fierce critic of Russia who has supported the removal of Soviet monuments in recent years, doesn’t seem to be fazed by her new status in Russia, dismissing the move as a “familiar scare tactic” by Moscow.

Posting on X, formerly Twitter, she said: “The Kremlin now hopes this move will help to silence me and others – but it won’t. The opposite.”


The threats of prosecution are largely symbolic, since they have little chance of leading to an arrest. But they are representative of Moscow’s continuing battle with the former Soviet countries of Eastern Europe over the historical narrative.

Above all, Vaissié explains, Moscow “aims to reaffirm the existence of a ‘Russian world’ (a concept born after the collapse of the Soviet Union to encompass the entire Russian-speaking diaspora outside Russia) and of a Russia at the centre of an empire and overseeing the lives of its citizens”.

“Since the 1990s, the Kremlin has maintained a deliberate confusion between Russian speakers, Russians, Russian citizens, former citizens of the USSR and former citizens of the Empire,” she said.

Dumoulin cited Moscow’s “long-standing hard line with the Baltic States on the question of memory”, adding that tensions ratcheted up a notch after the 2020 reform of Russia’s constitution.

“The historical memory of the Russian state was then enshrined in the constitution,” she said. “And from that moment on, there was a stiffening of internal attitudes, notably with the dissolution of the NGO Memorial (which, among other things, was the guardian of the memory of the Gulag).”

“It’s an approach in which there is only one possible historical discourse,” she said. “It’s not good to be a historian in Russia today.”

This article is a translation of the original in French.



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A Quick Visit to the 2023 Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival in Estonia | FirstShowing.net

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A Quick Visit to the 2023 Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival in Estonia

by Alex Billington
November 21, 2023

Awooooo!! There’s a charming festival up in the Baltic country of Estonia called the Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival. Also known locally as PÖFF (which stands for Pimedate Ööde Filmifestival in Estonian) the festival just celebrate its 27th year with a 2 and 1/2 week cinema celebration. It kicked off on November 3rd and ran through November 19th in downtown Tallinn, with tons of screenings & premieres every single day. It’s much longer than a regular festival because they like to let the films play and give locals a chance to come watch them in the evenings, with hundreds of films in the line-up to choose from. There’s also a big industry event at the end of the fest, which is when I was in town for a visit. PÖFF flew me up to Tallinn this year (from Berlin) and offered me a hotel room so that I can experience the festival in person. It was a very nice trip and I’m glad I could visit to watch some more films, though I arrived a bit late and couldn’t catch as many as I really hoped to watch. It’s a well-run festival overall, with a great selection of the year’s best films.

For anyone curious, the reason it’s called the Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival is Estonia is located very far in the north in Europe – just across the Baltic Sea from Finland, and next to Saint Petersburg, Russia. At this time of the year, in the dark of winter, there is very little light – the sun rises around 8AM & sets just before 4PM every day. Most of the screenings take place in the afternoon & evening, so most of the fest is set during the “black nights” of November. While the fest is known for premiering a lot of Eastern European, Baltic, and Scandinavian cinema, they’re open to anything. There isn’t really a specific theme with regards to what they play. However, my favorite thing about the Tallinn Black Nights Film Fest is the logo – a howling wolf. Even their awards are howling wolves. There was a gigantic bronze statue sitting in front of the hotel that I wanted to “acquire” and stuff into my carry-on luggage and bring home so he could keep me company in my living room while I watch movies at home. Alas, don’t think it would make it through airport security.

Most of the screenings (that I attended) take place at big multiplex movie theaters downtown where the festival HQ is based (at the Nordic Forum Hotel). They have events in other Estonian cities, but the venues are not as unique as one might expect. It’s pretty much just going to a big movie theater every day to watch. Here’s a few of my photos from the trip – one of a cinema, the other showing a sign that’s promoting the fest:

Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival

Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival

The impressive 2023 selection for the Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival includes new films in a variety of different competition sections (First Feature, Critics’ Picks Comp, Rebels With a Cause, Baltic Films, etc) as well as additional various Out of Competition, Critics’ Picks, Special Screenings, Gala Premieres, and more. It’s a diverse and engaging line-up, there’s no question about that. One of my favorite Estonian films that I already watched at Sitges called The Invisible Fight (here’s my full review) received a big gala screening, along with the excellent Estonian documentary film Smoke Sauna Sisterhood that initially premiered at Sundance (here’s the full trailer). I highly recommend watching both. These two are excellent examples of Estonia’s growing prominence in cinema, but of course they have plenty of other films to offer. During my quick 5 day trip up to PÖFF, I was able to watch 8 films in total. Here are my quick thoughts on these films:

Death Is a Problem for the Living (dir. Teemu Nikki) – A superrrrrrrr dark, superrrrrrrr dry Finnish black comedy. Quite draining to watch if I may say. Not quite my tempo… It’s about these two shady hearse drivers who get involved with an underground Russian roulette ring to help get rid of the dead and, yeah, it gets extra bleak. Doesn’t quite come together, feels a bit empty and emotionless despite the best intentions of telling this extra dark buddy story. I wanted to like it more.

The G (dir. Karl R. Hearne) – Despite a fantastic lead performance by actor Dale Dickey, I really did not care for this film. It’s way too dark and unsettling and just plain boring, with strange twists and turns that don’t really work. It could’ve been a more lighthearted yet thrilling comedy (similar to I Care a Lot) without all the crime and gangsters and wannabe Taken vibes. Already want to forget about this film…

All of Us Strangers (dir. Andrew Haigh) – A really beautiful film about loss and grief, it’s one of the best films of the year addressing these themes. Touching and tender and endearing, it’s a wonderful look at how memories can be both healing and haunting; and how memories can comfort us but also hold us back. Even though I wasn’t emotionally affected by it, I still admire and respect this film and all that it accomplishes with its illustrious cast – Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal, Jamie Bell, and Claire Foy.

The Peasants (dirs. DK Welchman & Hugh Welchman) – This hand-painted follow-up to Loving Vincent is gorgeous to look at, every single frame is literally a spectacular painting. However, it’s just so depressing to watch. A town full of spiteful, angry, gossip-addicted, aggressive people who torture the only good soul around. It’s hard to watch because it just gets worse and worse and there’s so little hope… I don’t know why we need to tell stories like this when it all just feels so awful and I don’t feel better by the end.

Close Your Eyes (dir. Víctor Erice) – The best of what I saw during my visit. This Spanish film premiered in Cannes earlier this year, and was acclaimed by many there as one of the best films of that fest. I missed it during Cannes, but caught up with it here and was completely enamored. A long film that’s entirely worth sitting through. Absolutely breathtaking cinema. As rich and layered as Drive My Car, as moving and lovely as Cinema Paradiso. An instant classic. Seek out this film and watch it as soon as you can.

Pelikan Blue (dir. László Csáki) – A great discovery from this festival. An animated documentary about a group of young Hungarian teens who figure out how to create fake train tickets and travel all around Europe in the early 1990s after Hungary became an independent nation (and no one had any money). It’s a simple story told so well by charismatic characters with great enthusiasm. A reminder that everyone just wants to get out and see the world and we should all learn to embrace that desire rather than stifle it.

Light Falls (dir. Phedon Papamichael) – Solid thriller. Legit film about tourists visiting a Greek island who get into some trouble with locals. Though it makes me sad seeing what happens to them. But well done, very well done. Minimalistic but it works – effectively gripping. Great performances. I was caught up in this.

Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World (dir. Radu Jude) – This Romanian satire is fun and captivating, while also being quite messy and boring. It’s way, way too long… I enjoyed most of it, but not all of it. Jude is trying to do way too much in one film, even though he is getting good commentary with Angela & Bobita. It loses all of its steam at the end, shifting the focus right when it’s getting really good.

Tallinn Black Nights Film Festival

🐺 This is the huge wolf statue sitting in front of the HQ hotel that I wanted to bring home. It’s beautiful! I’ve always loved wolves, I have so many stories about my obsession with wolves. There are currently around 150 to 300 wolves living in Estonia, and the grey wolf has been officially chosen as the “national animal” symbol of the country. This nice statue is also what the awards look like when filmmakers win a prize at the festival. I would go to this fest as a filmmaker just to win one of these! As for the vibe of the fest itself, it’s a bit lackluster, to be frank… There wasn’t much energy or excitement at the screenings, the audiences rarely ever clapped or cheered, even at the end of wonderful films. Is this how it usually is there? Perhaps this is what Estonian society is like, perhaps the festival needs to work more on cultivating greater enthusiasm for cinema. Some of my screenings were sold out, while others were barely half full. It seems to be more of an event for locals to attend, with an industry conference on the side, though it’s hard to say if it’s worth flying all the way up to Estonia when many of these films are also playing at other film festivals around the world.

Nonetheless, I am happy to have made the trek up to Tallinn and attended my very first PÖFF. I am thankful and grateful that the festival offered to bring me and show me what the experience is like in Tallinn. And as always, I’m happy I had the chance to watch some good films. For me personally, when I go to film festivals, the films are what matter the most. Not parties, not industry meet-ups, not red carpets, not sponsor events, nothing like that. I want to watch some of the best new films each year with excited audiences interested in all of the stories being told on the big screen. I want to dive into cinema and be immersed in the lively world of visual storytelling, discussing these great films and how they move us, entertaining us, enlighten us, and inspire us all. Would I recommend going to PÖFF? Only if you’re in the area, or only if you have the time to travel up to Tallinn to watch some superb films. The A-list selection makes it worth the trip. Other favorites including Poor Things, Daaaaaali!, Past Lives, La Chimera, The Holdovers, The Pot au Feu, Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days, The Old Oak, The Promised Land, The Teachers’ Lounge, Theater Camp, and many others, also played in Tallinn this year. No matter what it’s most important to relish all this top notch world cinema.

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Estonia election analysis: Why liberals won, and the far-right lost

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The votes are all tallied, the winners declared, and the dust is settling on Estonia’s first election since the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over. 

The makeup of the next parliament – Riigikogu – looks familiar but also different: at the previous election in 2019 there were five parties represented, but now six parties have made it over the 5% threshold and returned MPs. 

Now talks begin to form the next government and here’s where PM Kaja Kallas is hoping history doesn’t repeat itself: in 2019 her Reform Party won the most seats in parliament but she was outflanked by right-wing parties who went on to form a coalition of their own. 

So what did we learn from the campaign and the elections? Here’s our key takeaways: 

1. Strong new madate for Kaja Kallas and her Reform Party

Incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas had a strong night, with her centre-right Reform Party picking up three new seats, while opponents further right in the political spectrum suffered losses. Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR called it a “landslide” win as Reform extended its lead over the far-right EKRE party to 15 seats. 

The win, Kallas said, “also shows that Estonians overwhelmingly value liberal values, security founded on EU and NATO, and firm support to Ukraine.”

The new liberal bloc which has now emerged in Estonian politics could in theory mean that Reform would only need the support of one other party to form a majority government, but Kaja Kallas talked on the campaign trail about the need for building sustainable and solid alliances with other parties, so she’s likely to look at two other parties with similar values to form her coalition: Estonia200 and the Social Democrats. 

2. Big breakthrough for Estonia200 party

At the last general election in 2019, the Estonia200 party fell just short of the 5% threshold to return MPs to parliament. At the regional elections they sharpened their message, targeted seats in urban areas in particular where they felt their strengths and core support lay, and now translated this into national success with 14 seats in the Riigikogu — and a likely spot in government. 

So why has this liberal, centre-right party resonated now with voters? Party co-founder Kristina Kallas (no relation to Kaja Kallas) tells Euronews that her party succeeded by appealing to people across the political spectrum. 

“At this election, people were looking for the option of a new, liberal force,” says Kallas. 

“In Tartu, where I campaigned, it’s not just young liberal progressive voters worried about populism, it was also quite elderly people who might not be value-liberal as we understand it, but populism was also something they didn’t want,” she explains. 

“Estonia200 brought more liberal voters out to vote, and to vote for a new party,” says Kallas. 

3. Parties on the right took a fall in support

“This year it seems to be more important who doesn’t get the votes, than who does,” one Estonian voter told Euronews on election day, and that feeling seems to have prevailed with a liberal, values-based centre-right bloc emerging strongly, while parties with more traditional views (Centre Party and Isamaa) or more polarising policies (EKRE) took a hit. 

“Reform Party and EKRE presented themselves as the main opponents in the election, calling for supporters of other parties to vote for them to make sure that the other one does not stand a chance to become a prime minister’s party,” explains Merili Arjakas, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn.

“While EKRE’s nominal loss of two seats is not major, they had expected to take over the Centre Party’s position of being a strong second party with give-or-take of 25 seats. This did not happen,” she tells Euronews.

Additionally, having the Social Democrats and Estonia200 fare better than in recent opinion polls also added salt to the the right wing’s wounds. 

“This is why there is a widespread perception that the nationalist right lost the election,” says Arjakas.

The Centre Party’s vote share was down more than 36,000 votes from the last election, likely lost due to a number of factors including a popular figure who was expelled from the party last year who ran as an independent; but the security situation, the war in Ukraine, a feeling of neglect or alienation among Russian-speaking voters who traditionally vote for the Centre Party, and generally lower level of political engagement. 

4. Internet voting is more popular, and trusted, than ever

For the first time in an Estonian election cycle, more than 50% of people cast their ballots on the internet. That’s only possible because of the wide range of services that are available to Estonians online, the investment in system security that authorities have invested in, and the high level of trust the public has in the integrity of internet voting. 

The fly in the ointment the after the votes were counted is that far-right party EKRE now reportedly wants to challenge those electronic ballots in court. 

Kristi Raik, Deputy Director of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, calls that a “Trumpist” move. 

“EKRE is bringing into question the reliability of the voting procedure and wants to contest the e-vote in court. This is a dangerous game of undermining people’s trust in institutions,” says Raik. 

“The real reason being that EKRE gets relatively few e-votes.”

5. What happened to Russian-speaking voter turnout?

Estonia’s Russian-speaking voters have found themselves a bit politically adrift in the last year or so. Although they have traditionally sided with the Centre Party, they felt let down when it comes to continuing Russian-language education in parallel with the Estonian-language education system. 

EKRE had tried to woo them, and use the arrival of Ukrainian refugees as a wedge issue: but EKRE had also been very vocal about calling for the removal of Soviet-era monuments which could in turn alienate some Russian-speaking voters. 

“Looking at the districts, the turnout was remarkably lower than national average in Ida-Virumaa county and a bit lower in Tallinna Kesklinna, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts, where many Russian-speakers in the country live,” explains ICDS’s Merili Arjakas. 

While the methodology for calculating turnout has changed slightly in this year’s elections, turnout in those Russian-speaking districts has always been lower than average.



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Your quick and easy guide to Estonia’s general election

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Estonia goes to the polls on Sunday 5 March in a general election to choose new members of the 101-seat parliament – or Riigikogu.

Here’s everything you need to know about Estonian politics, parties, personalities and the issues at stake as the Baltic nation votes:

How did we get here?

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas pulled off a surprise win in the 2019 general election, and went on to form a centre-right government coalition with her Reform Party and the Centre Party.

But it was not all political smooth sailing in the nation of 1.3 million people. In June 2022 Kallas kicked the Centre Party out of government after they sided with the far-right EKRE party on education issues, and after disagreements over spending and welfare policies.

That lead Kallas and Reform to seek a new coalition government with the Social Democrats and Isamaa parties to secure a Riigikogu majority — which she secured in July last year.

With so many political ups and downs in the last few years, are Estonian’s geared up for Sunday’s vote? It seems like they are.

“I think the election is on a lot of people’s minds, and is getting a lot of coverage in the media,” explains Mari-Liis Jakobson, Associate Professor of Political Sociology at Tallinn University.

“The polls are frequent and the elections are part of everybody’s daily conversations,” she tells Euronews.

How does an election in Estonia work?

Up for grabs on 5 March are 101 seats, and they are currently held by five parties. If you want to get one of those seats there’s a 5% threshold to get into parliament: this year it looks quite likely the five main parties will be joined by another party called Estonia 200 which fell just short of reaching the 5% threshold in 2019, but which polled well in regional elections and hopes to translate that to national success this weekend.

This year outdoor advertising for parties and individual candidates is back, after being banned ahead of the 2019 general election so it’s a more colourful campaign than four years ago. 

Early voting started in Estonian embassies overseas on 18 February, and electronic voting is available all this week.

It’s also possible to cast a ballot by internet voting which can be done from a computer, with citizens using an ID-card and card reader, as well as PIN codes for security. 

People can vote on the internet all this week but if they change their mind, they can still go to a polling station on election day and vote there: the paper vote cancels out the electronic vote.

According to the Estonian Election Commission, there was already a 15.1% turnout by the evening of Tuesday 28 February. 

Turnout at the 2019 was moderately high at 67% of eligible voters.

What are the main political parties?

Estonian voters tend to skew more to the right than voters in other north European countries, and this is reflected in the makeup of parties which get into parliament.

Reform Party: Known as the ‘Squirrel Party’ in Estonia, Reform has 34 seats in parliament – the most of any party. Headed by PM Kaja Kallas, Reform is a centre-right liberal party which appeals to young professionals, voters with further education, and although it has a majority male party membership, it attracts a lot of its vote share from women.

Kallas has been very visible on the world stage this past year, with strong soundbites and a robust position on the war in Ukraine: but does it translate to domestic popularity?

“Domestically, politicians always have their supporters and opponents. Kaja is relatively popular as a prime minister, she is currently most popular candidate for the PM position, but I wouldn’t say that she’s unanimously liked,” says Mari-Liis Jakobson from Tallinn University.

Centre Party: Lead by former Prime Minister Jüri Ratas, the Estonian Centre Party is attractive to traditional, more conservative voters and also attracted a large share of the votes of Estonia’s Russian-speaking population. However they’ve drifted away from the Centre Party in the last couple of years, and the Centre Party has been hurt by a cooperation agreement it had with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party, and although the Centre will say the agreement wasn’t in force, they didn’t actually renounce it until March 2022, after Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Social Democrats: Estonia’s Social Democrats had their peak in parliament in the 2011 election winning 19 seats but they’ve lost half their representation since then and could potentially be in danger of falling to around the 5% threshold. The party’s leader is interior minister Lauri Läänemets.

Isamaa: A conservative, Christian, centre-right party, Isamaa lost two seats at the last general election and captured slightly more than 11% of the vote. Although they’re currently part of the ruling government coalition, Isamaa – which means Fatherland – have had an internal ideological split over how close they should get to the far-right EKRE party. That dispute saw one of their MPs break away to form his own one-man party in parliament.  

Conservative People’s Party EKRE: The far-right EKRE party is a populist, nationalist party which is against immigration, wants to preserve Estonian culture and identity, and supports scrapping a parallel education system for Russian-speaking Estonians. Like most Estonian politicians, EKRE’s leaders are against marriage equality, but party leader Mart Helme has gone further by described Tallinn’s Pride events as a “parade of perverts,” and the party wants to see homosexual and multicultural propaganda (sic) taken out of schools.  

Main electoral themes

The biggest issue going into the elections is national security – but with all the main parties backing the country’s stance in strong support of Ukraine, there is very little daylight between them on defence issues: the are all in favour of increasing defence spending even if they don’t agree on where the money should be spent exactly. 

“I would say there’s two major themes of the political campaign, and those have been the security situation and the cost of living, which in a way are two sides of the same coin,” explains Merili Arjakas, a Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. 

“The cost of living crisis is a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine, but Russian aggression is nothing new to us and we have wide consensus on security policy issues. The main parties have only small differences between them,” she tells Euronews. 

Some of those differences are about where the emphasis lies: Reform wants to focus on giving strong support to Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees in Estonia, as well as supporting international alliances like NATO and the EU. 

“Kaja Kallas has been punching up Estonia’s weight, and we certainly have a bigger share in European affairs if you look at our size. Focusing on the security situation fits her and her party as well, and we can see over the past year some ‘rallying around the flag’ going on,” says Arjakas. 

The Centre Party and EKRE want to focus more on the impact the war in Ukraine has had on the cost of living because they have traditionally got a lot of their votes from people with lower incomes or who need more state support. 

Other issues like healthcare and education, which might be more prominent in peace time, have not set the Estonian campaign trail alight so far.

What about Estonia’s Russian-speaking population?

There are no overtly pro-Russian parties in Estonia, but with roughly 25% of the population identifying as Russian-speakers, where is there political home? 

In the past the Centre Party has been where most Russian-speaking votes have gone “they used to garner 70, 80, 90% of the Russian-speaking population,” explains Mari-Liis Jakobson from Tallinn University. 

“Turnout in Russian-speaking counties is generally lower than for Estonian speakers, and this time the turnout might be even lower because Russian-speakers are having a hard time knowing who to trust and who to support,” she says. 

Over the last five years the Centre Party has been losing Russian-speaking votes, while EKRE has been trying to court their support — which is a bit of a challenge given their anti-Russian stance in the past. 

But like EKRE, Estonia’s Russian-speaking population are more conservative, wary of rights for sexual and gender minorities, and EKRE has been using the Ukrainian refugees as a ‘grudge issue’ with the Russian-speaking population. 

“Even before the conflict, Ukrainians were the largest group of migrants coming to Estonia, and EKRE played on this, saying they are coming to take your jobs, and keeping wage levels down. It’s been a big issue,” says Jakobson. 

What are the results likely to be?

Most political experts think that Kaja Kallas’s Reform Party will emerge as the winners when the votes are counted, but the big question is who she might want in her coalition – or whether she might be shut out of a coalition government by a bloc of the other parties instead. 

“Many parties have ruled out making a coalition with EKRE, like Estonia 200, the Social Democrats and even Isamaa which was in a coalition before with EKRE and the Centre party. This time Isamma has been making noises that they wouldn’t want to go into a coalition with them again,” explains Mari-Liis Jakobson, Associate Professor of Political Sociology at Tallinn University.

“Reform and Estonia 200 and the Social Democrats could be a possibility because there is a more natural overlap of voters there. But on the other hand it could be EKRE with the Centre Party and possibly Isamaa” she says, hedging her bets. 

The main faultline in Estonian politics, says Merili Arjakas, “is whether or not you are with EKRE, or willing to stand against EKRE.” 

“It will very much come down to one or two seats. The most likely option is a coalition between the Reform Party and the Centre Party, if they manage to get more than 52 or 53 seats combined.”



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