Why automakers are turning to hybrids in the middle of the industry’s EV transition

2023 Prius Prime on display, April 6, 2023.

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

DETROIT — As sales of all-electric vehicles grow more slowly than expected, major automakers are increasingly meeting their customers in the middle.

More and more companies are reconsidering the viability of hybrid cars and trucks to appease consumer demand and avoid costly penalties related to federal fuel economy and emissions standards.

The shifting strategies run counterintuitively to industrywide EV messaging of recent years. Many auto companies have begun to invest billions of dollars in all-electric vehicles, and the Biden administration has made a push to get more EVs on U.S. roadways as quickly as possible.

But hybrid vehicles — those with traditional internal combustion engines combined with EV battery technologies — could help the automotive industry lower fuel consumption and emissions in the short-term, while easing consumers into vehicle electrification.

Sales of traditional hybrid electric vehicles, or HEVs, such as the Toyota Prius, are outpacing those of all-electric vehicles in 2023, according to Edmunds. HEVs accounted for 8.3% of U.S. car sales, about 1.2 million vehicles sold, through November of this year. That share is up 2.8 percentage points compared with total sales last year.

EVs made up 6.9% of sales heading into December, or roughly 976,560 units, up 1.7 percentage points compared with total sales last year. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, accounted for only 1% of U.S. sales through November.

“There’s been so much talk over the past few years about the move toward electrification and sort of forgoing hybrids, but … hybrids are not dead,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of insights. “There’s a lot of consumers out there that are interested in electrification, maybe not ready to go fully electric.”

Hybrids can also cost less and relieve many concerns typically associated with EVs such as range anxiety and lack of charging infrastructure. The average hybrid this year cost $42,381, according to Edmunds. That’s below the roughly $59,400 average for an EV; $60,700 for a PHEV; and $44,800 for a traditional vehicle.

Morgan Stanley earlier this month said Toyota Motor, Honda Motor and Hyundai Motor, including Kia, account for 9 out of 10 hybrid sales in the U.S. Representatives for those automakers said they are actively attempting to increase production and sales of hybrid vehicles in the U.S.

“While the transition to full battery electric transportation will take time, hybrids and plug-in hybrids will play an equally important role in Kia America’s near and mid-term goals,” Eric Watson, vice president of Kia America sales, said in a statement to CNBC.

And other companies, such as the Detroit automakers, are following suit.

Detroit Three automakers

The Detroit automakers have varying strategies for hybrid vehicles.

Ford Motor offers PHEVs but is leaning into HEVs, announcing plans in September to double sales of the V-6 hybrid model during the 2024 model year to roughly 20% in the U.S. It’s part of Ford CEO Jim Farley’s plans to quadruple the company’s production of gas-electric hybrids.

Ford’s hybrid sales through November of this year are up 23% over the same period in 2022 to more than 121,000 units, or 6.8% of its total sales through that point. In comparison, Ford’s EV sales are up 16.2% to roughly 62,500 units, accounting for 3.5% of its total sales.

Battery breakdown

Both hybrids and plug-in hybrids have a traditional engine combined with EV technologies. A traditional hybrid such as the Toyota Prius has electrified parts, including a small battery, to provide better fuel economy to assist the engine. PHEVs typically have a larger battery to provide for all-electric driving for a certain number of miles until an engine is needed to power the vehicle or electric motors.

Chrysler parent Stellantis, for its part, is leaning on PHEVs for its electrification strategy, before introducing a host of EVs starting next year. The company is the top seller of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the U.S., and the vehicles accounted for about 10% of the company’s third-quarter sales, led by Jeep Wrangler and Grand Cherokee SUVs.

But General Motors isn’t ready just yet to alter its EV plans, which include a goal to exclusively offer all-electric vehicles by 2035.

GM led the way for plug-in electric vehicles with the Chevrolet Volt during the 2010s. The company discontinued the vehicle in early 2019, citing demand and cost concerns.

Since then, the automaker has not offered another hybrid vehicle in the U.S. other than the recently launched Chevrolet Corvette E-Ray, a hybrid version of the famed sports car. GM does offer hybrids, including PHEVs, in China.

2024 Chevrolet Corvette E-Ray hybrid sports car

GM

“We still have a plan in place that allows us to be all light-duty vehicles EV by 2035,” GM CEO Mary Barra said Monday during an Automotive Press Association meeting in Detroit. “We’ll adjust based on where the customer is and where demand is. It’s not going to be ‘if we build it they will come.’ We’re going to be led by the customer.”

Her comments come after GM President Mark Reuss told CNBC in August that he was “flexible” regarding hybrids as a way of meeting federal regulations.

“If it means we have to do that by law, then we have to do that by law,” he said. “If there’s regulations that get dealt on us, then we’re going to look at everything in our toolbox to meet them.”

Federal regulations

Major auto companies, including the Detroit automakers, were counting on EVs to assist in offsetting the emissions and low fuel economies of larger SUVs and trucks that can cost them hundreds of millions of dollars in fines by the federal government.

GM and Stellantis were forced to pay a combined $363.8 million in penalties for failing to meet federal fuel-economy standards for cars and trucks they produced in previous years, according to information published by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in June.

Such fines would significantly increase under current proposals by the Biden administration to improve fuel efficiency of vehicles and move toward EVs, according to automaker lobbying groups.

The American Automotive Policy Council, a group representing the Detroit Three, earlier this year said the automakers would face more than $14 billion in noncompliance penalties between 2027 and 2032 barring significant changes to their fleets’ overall fuel efficiency. U.S. automakers have separately warned the fines would cost $6.5 billion for GM, $3 billion at Stellantis and $1 billion at Ford, according to Reuters.

NHTSA in July proposed boosting fuel efficiency requirements by 2% per year for passenger cars and 4% per year for pickup trucks and SUVs from 2027 through 2032, resulting in a fleetwide average fuel efficiency of 58 mpg.

With EVs playing a lesser role than anticipated to boost those fleetwide averages, hybrids could save automakers millions.

“Even without electric vehicles, there’s an expectation that electrification of an internal combustion engine is going to be necessary to meet regulations anyway,” said Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst at S&P Global Mobility.

Industry leader

The resurgence of hybrids is especially important for Toyota. The world’s largest automaker is considered the pioneer of traditional hybrids, with the Prius.

The company ironically became a target of environmental groups last year for its strategy to move forward with a mix of hybrids, PHEVs and EVs, which critics viewed as a lack of commitment to an all-electric future.

Toyota’s argument at the time, and still, is that it’s meeting consumer needs and planning for a more gradual global adoption that will naturally include some markets shifting to EVs sooner than others.

The company further says it takes into account the entire environmental impact of producing EVs compared with hybrid electrified vehicles, arguing it can produce eight 40-mile plug-in hybrids for every one 320-mile battery electric vehicle and save up to eight times the carbon emitted into the atmosphere.

“People are finally seeing reality,” Toyota Chairman and former CEO Akio Toyoda, who has been heavily criticized for the slower approach on EVs, said in October regarding EVs, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda speaks during a small media roundtable on Sept. 29, 2022 in Las Vegas.

Toyota

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How gas station economics will change in the electric vehicle charging future

As electric vehicles proliferate, some gas stations are making expensive overhauls to add EV charging stations. 

In most cases, they aren’t scrapping traditional liquid fuel pumps. But select locations, including an RS Automotive in Takoma Park, Md., and a Shell station in Fulham, England, have made a full switch.

Location, cost, power requirements and conversion time are among the multiple considerations that factor into a gas station’s decision to convert all or a portion of their existing infrastructure to allow for EV charging. 

“Figuring out how to do this on an active site can be complex and challenging,” said Neha Palmer, chief executive of TeraWatt Infrastructure, which is developing a network of electric vehicle charging centers for fleet operations across California, Arizona, and New Mexico. “How do you sequence the construction when you have vehicles that might want to fuel there?” 

Here’s what gas station owners need to know about the EV charging trend and their future.

The EV fast-charging model

Locations like office complexes, hospitals and hotels typically offer a slower charging option, since people generally stay put for hours at a time. Gas stations, however, are investing in Level 3 chargers, which are more powerful and generally charge a car in 20 to 30 minutes. 

While slower charging stations are often free to motorists, that’s not generally true for fast charging stations, given ongoing operational expenses such as electricity and extra fees charged by utilities in commercial settings, said Seth Cutler, chief operating officer of EV Connect, whose software tools help companies build charging station networks.

Big oil company franchisers and car dealers are on board

For large oil giants, adding EV chargers is both a defensive and offensive play. 

Gas station numbers have been decreasing at a sharp rate in the past three decades and the trend is expected to continue in the coming years, according to Shubhendra Anand, vice president of research and strategy at Market Research Future. In fact, at least a quarter of service stations globally are at risk of closure by 2035 without significant business model tweaks, according to consulting firm BCG.

The Biden administration has a stated goal of having 500,000 electric vehicle chargers nationally where EVs make up at least 50% of new car sales by 2030. By current administration estimates, there are more than three million EVs and more than 130,000 public chargers nationwide.

The European oil majors are among the energy sector leaders in the global EV charging push.

Shell has EV-charging-only mobility hubs in China and the Netherlands, in addition to the Fulham location. The company intends to own more than 70,000 public EV charge points worldwide by 2025, and 200,000 by 2030, according to an email statement from Barbara Stoyko, senior vice president of mobility for Shell Americas.

BP also sees the need for mixed-use hybrid refueling and EV charging stations, according to Sujay Sharma, chief executive of BP’s electric vehicle charging business in the U.S. “Today’s gas stations are well positioned to adopt EV charging due to locations in high-demand areas, in addition to their existing convenience offerings including restrooms, food and beverage,” Sharma stated in an email. 

Franchise car dealers are also increasingly getting on board, thanks to pushes from automakers like GM and Ford.

As of late last year, 65% of Ford’s dealers had opted into the EV certification program (a little under 2,000, according to data shared by Ford), as it has started to make the role of car dealers central to the EV transition process. 

The National Automobile Dealers Association said in a May release that franchise owners will spend an estimated $5.5 billion on EV infrastructure across OEM brands, with per store costs ranging from $100,000 to over $1 million. 

Upfront costs can be jaw-dropping, incentives help

Adding EV charging capabilities is not a one-two decision that owners should take lightly. Indeed, the return on investment could be seven to 10 years on average, according to an estimate provided by Yair Nechmad, co-founder and chief executive of Nayax, a global commerce enablement and payments platform, which offers its services to gas stations.

The hardware and software for fast charging can run between $50,000 for one charger and $500,000 for multiple fast chargers and dispensers, said Michael Hughes, chief revenue officer of ChargePoint Holdings, a technology company that makes EV charging hardware and software to help drivers find local charging stations and amenities. The infrastructure, meanwhile, which includes the cost of breaking ground, running power, permits and contractors, generally costs about twice that, he said.

That makes it advisable to incur all the infrastructure changes upfront, even if a gas station only intends to make a few chargers available at the onset, said Rohan Puri, chief executive of Stable Auto Corporation, which helps make charging stations more profitable for companies that own and operate them. His advice: “Put in as much power as you think you’re going to need in 10 years.”

There are numerous federal, state and utility-based incentives for commercial businesses to purchase and install fast chargers. This includes the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration NEVI Formula Program, which provides generous funding to states to strategically deploy EV charging stations. 

Gas station owners can search for information on incentive programs they may qualify for.

Location is a key factor, gas station franchise concerns

Even with incentives, there can be barriers to entry, location being a major factor. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 80 percent of EV charging happens at home, which makes adding EV charging less appealing for in-town gas stations, Hughes said. Local gas stations also don’t generally have amenities to keep people entertained while they are charging their vehicles.

Real estate can also be prohibitive. A traditional gas station may have two islands with four pumps each for liquid fuel; the same utilization rate would require about 40 charging stations, Hughes said.

By contrast, gas stations along major highways between highly traveled destinations can be ideal for electric charging hubs. These locations tend to have multiple amenities, offering people the opportunity to grab a cup of coffee, get a quick bite to eat, stretch their legs or walk the dog while they charge their vehicle, Hughes said.

Convenience stores like Sheetz, Wawa, Royal Farms and Buc-ee’s that double as gas station operators are also starting to add electric chargers at certain locations, said Albert Gore, executive director of The Zero Emission Transportation Association, a federal coalition that advocates for EVs, and who is a former Tesla and SolarCity executive. It can’t be “a place that you’re just going to run in and buy a Snickers,” Gore said.

While there can be a first-mover advantage for gas stations, some owners, like Blake Smith, founder of SQRL Holdings, a gas station and convenience store operator, are taking it slow. His company operates more than 150 convenience store gas station locations and offers electric charging in select locations in Florida. By contrast, the company hasn’t installed any EV charges in Arkansas, where it has more than 60 stations.

“I would never recoup my investment,” he said, adding that a move to all electric charging could be decades away. “We’re not flipping a switch to where gas vehicles are getting off the road and it will be EV-only.”

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