Checkmate in Nagorno-Karabakh? How Azerbaijan got Armenia to back down

The Armenian separatist forces in Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday agreed to lay down their weapons following Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive in the Armenian-majority enclave. Between Moscow’s weakening position in the Caucasus and the West’s dependence on hydrocarbons, Azerbaijan has taken advantage of a favourable international context to complete a decades-long mission to control the disputed region.

After more than 30 years of conflict, the battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh may soon conclude. Under the guise of an “anti-terrorist operation” following the death of four soldiers and two civilians, Baku continued its efforts to reassert control over Nagorno-Karabakh on Tuesday. 

Armenian separatists – who have mostly governed the disputed territory since 1994 – promptly agreed on Wednesday to surrender their weapons following Baku’s lightning offensive, indicating they are open to talks on reintegrating the secessionist territory into Azerbaijan.

“An agreement has been reached on the withdrawal of the remaining units and servicemen of the Armenian armed forces … and on the dissolution and complete disarmament of the armed formations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army,” the Armenian separatist authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh said in a statement.

This announcement is a decisive victory for Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev who has made the reunification of his country a priority.

Separated from Armenia and attached to Azerbaijan in 1921 by Stalin, the predominantly Armenian mountainous enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has been a point of permanent tension between the two former Soviet republics since the collapse of the USSR.

Azerbaijan launched a military operation against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 19. © FRANCE24

In 1991, the territory declared itself the independent Republic of Artsakh but was never recognised by the international community. Then, in 1994, Armenia won the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, resulting in the de facto independence of the Republic of Artsakh which Azerbaijan refused to accept.

In the intervening years, the tables have turned, says Jean Radvanyi, geographer and professor emeritus at the Institut national des langues et civilisations orientales (INALCO). Thanks to significant revenues from oil and natural gas, “Baku has taken advantage of the situation to rearm, with the support of allies such as Turkey, and the balance of power has continued to evolve”, says Radvanyi. 

This role reversal gave Azerbaijan the confidence to launch the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, which saw Baku’s forces overpower the Armenian military.

In the wake of this defeat, Armenia was forced to cede territory in and around Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. The ceasefire stipulated the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers tasked with guaranteeing the safety of the Armenians but this measure failed to stop regular armed skirmishes on the border.

Taking advantage of a divided Armenia, Azerbaijan then launched the second phase of its plan: a war of attrition designed to cut off the enclave’s 120,000 or so Armenians. Despite the presence of the Russian peacekeepers, beginning in December 2022, Azerbaijan blockaded the Lachin corridor, a narrow mountain road that links Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

It wasn’t until September 18 – just one day before the offensive – that Red Cross trucks carrying food and medicine gained access to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkish support and Moscow’s declining influence in the Caucasus 

In both the first and second Nagorno-Karabakh wars, Azerbaijan received support from Turkey.

On Tuesday, a Turkish defence ministry official said the country is using  “all means”, including military training and modernisation, to support its close ally Azerbaijan but it did not play a direct role in Baku’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku’s success also appears to be the result of Moscow’s weakening regional position. Russia has struggled to maintain its traditional role as policeman of the Caucasus since it launched its offensive in Ukraine in February 2022.

“Since the fall of the USSR, Russia has been the guardian of the region, maintaining a kind of status quo, but Moscow is focused on the conflict in Ukraine, which seems far from over,” says Lukas Aubin, associate researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

What’s more, Russia has become much more dependent on Azerbaijan. The country serves as a corridor between Iran and Russia, allowing for the transfer of military supplies for the war in Ukraine and is one of the countries that enables Russia to circumvent Western sanctions

Finally, Moscow’s support for Armenia has been steadily waning in recent years. Elected in 2018, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has edged away from Russia and turned to the West for security guarantees.

Read more‘We never deliberately attacked civilians’: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev interview

For instance, in November 2022, Pashinyan refused to sign the final declaration of the summit of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Azerbaijan is also a member. This signalled Armenia’s growing resentment at Moscow’s lack of support for the country.

“Pashinyan is pursuing a pro-Western policy, which was not necessarily the case at the outset, and which irritates Moscow,” says Laurent Leylekian, a South Caucasus specialist and political analyst. “Armenia ratified the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court to protect the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh.” 

This process began at the end of 2022, but ended, coincidentally, a few days after the announcement of the ICC’s arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin – at a time when Putin wanted to sully the ICC’s credibility, Armenia was legitimising it.

Since then, Pashinyan has multiplied acts of defiance towards the Russian president. In early September, Armenia announced humanitarian aid to Ukraine and undertook a joint military exercise with the United States, which began on September 11. In response, Moscow responded by summoning the Armenian ambassador and denouncing the measures as “unfriendly”.

‘It’s death or exile that awaits the Armenians’ 

A Western response is yet to materialise. But here again, the international context is working in Azerbaijan’s favour.

In January, the European Union signed a far-reaching natural gas import agreement with Baku, to reduce dependence on Russian supplies. A few months later, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, travelled to Baku to announce a new agreement to double gas imports from Azerbaijan.

In an article published in Le Monde, some fifty French lawmakers criticised a project that would once again place Europeans “in a situation of new dependence on a state with bellicose aspirations”.

“The West has always been rather hypocritical in this matter, preferring to negotiate gas and oil with Baku rather than genuinely support the Armenians”, says Radvanyi.

As Azerbaijan now enters negotiations with Armenian separatists from a position of considerable strength, the power asymmetry could spell danger for both the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia itself. 

“The (ethnic) Armenian leaders of secessionist Karabakh have long refused to acknowledge that this territory belongs to Azerbaijan,” says Radvanyi, for whom the power shift on the ground could lead to a “solution” to the long-lasting standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh. 

“I hope this solution will ensure the status of the Karabakh Armenians,” he adds.  

But other experts envisage much gloomier scenarios. “It’s death or exile that awaits the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh because it’s impossible for an Armenian to live in a country where racist anti-Armenian hatred is the raison d’être,” says Leylekian.

Speaking before the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Wednesday, an Armenian ambassador warned of “looming ethnic cleansing” in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh are trapped and they do not have a way to evacuate since Azerbaijan continues to block the only lifeline connecting with Armenia,” he said.

Another concern relates to the integrity of Armenian territory, as Nagorno-Karabakh could lose its role as a buffer zone between the two enemies of the Caucasus.

“There’s every reason to be worried. If this buffer zone were to disappear, Azerbaijan’s ambitions could be even more pronounced,” says Aubin. “Without Russian support and frank and massive support from the West, it’s hard to see the Armenian army being in a position to resist.”

In contrast with this, Azerbaijan’s presidential foreign policy advisor Hikmet Hajiyev said Wednesday that the country aimed to “peacefully reintegrate” Armenians living in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh and that it supports a “normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

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Azerbaijan claims full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region as Armenian forces agree to disarm

September 20, 2023 05:16 pm | Updated September 21, 2023 05:31 am IST – YEREVAN, Armenia

Azerbaijan claimed full control of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region Wednesday after local Armenian forces there agreed to lay down their weapons following the latest outbreak of fighting in the decades-long separatist conflict.

Authorities in the ethnic Armenian region that has run its affairs without international recognition since fighting broke out in the early 1990s declared around midday that local self-defense forces will disarm and disband under a Russia-mediated cease-fire.

They also said representatives of the region will start talks Thursday with the Baku government on Nagorno-Karabakh’s “reintegration” into Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev trumpeted victory in a televised address to the nation, saying that “in just one day, Azerbaijan fulfilled all the tasks set as part of local anti-terrorist measures” and “restored its sovereignty.”

On Tuesday, the Azerbaijan army unleashed an artillery barrage and drone attacks against outnumbered and undersupplied pro-Armenian forces, which have been weakened by a blockade of the region in the southern Caucasus Mountains that is recognized internationally as being part of Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh human rights ombudsman Gegham Stepanyan said at least 200 people, including 10 civilians, were killed and more than 400 others were wounded in the fighting. He said earlier that children were among the dead and wounded.

His casualty figures could not immediately be independently verified.

The hostilities worsened an already grim humanitarian situation for residents who have endured food and medicine shortages for months as Azerbaijan enforced a blockade of the road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

Thousands of Nagorno-Karabakh residents flocked to a camp operated by Russian peacekeepers to avoid the fighting, while many others gathered at the airport of the regional capital, Stepanakert, hoping to flee the region.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a speech to the nation that fighting decreased following the truce, emphasizing that Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh are fully responsible for its residents security.

“If peacekeepers have proposed a peace deal, it means that they completely and without any reservations accepted the responsibility of ensuring the security of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, and provide the conditions and the rights for them to live on their land and in their homes safely,” he said.

Mr. Pashinyan, who has previously recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, said Armenia wouldn’t be drawn into the fighting. He said his government didn’t take part in negotiating the deal, but “has taken note” of the decision made by the region’s separatist authorities.

He again denied any Armenian troops were in the region, even though separatist authorities said they were in Nagorno-Karabakh and would pull out as part of the truce.

Protesters rallied in the Armenian capital of Yerevan for a second straight day Wednesday, blocking streets and demanding that authorities defend Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The U.S. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. was “deeply concerned” about Azerbaijan’s military actions. “We have repeatedly emphasized the use of force is absolutely unacceptable,” he said, adding that the U.S. was closely watching the worsening humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s move to reclaim control over Nagorno-Karabakh raised concerns that a full-scale war in the region could resume between the two neighbors, which have been locked in a struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh since a separatist war there ended in 1994.

During another war that lasted for six weeks in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories that were held for decades by Armenian forces. More than 6,700 people died in the fighting, which ended with a Russian-brokered peace agreement. Moscow deployed about 2,000 peacekeeping troops to the region.

The conflict has long drawn in powerful regional players, including Russia and Turkey. While Russia took on the mediating role, Turkey threw its weight behind longtime ally Azerbaijan.

Russia has been Armenia’s main economic partner and ally since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and has a military base in the country.

Mr. Pashinyan, however, has been increasingly critical of Moscow’s role, emphasizing its failure to protect Nagorno-Karabakh and arguing that Armenia needs to turn to the West to ensure its security. Moscow, in turn, has expressed dismay about Mr. Pashinyan’s pro-Western tilt.

The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Pashinyan on Wednesday, welcoming the deal to end the hostilities and start talks between Azerbaijani officials and representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said some of its peacekeepers were killed Wednesday, although it didn’t say how many and whether it happened before or after the start of the cease-fire. The ministry said the peacekeeping contingent had evacuated more than 3,100 civilians.

The separatists’ quick capitulation reflected their weakness following the Armenian forces’ defeat in the 2020 war and the loss of the only road linking the region to Armenia.

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said the separatist forces, which consisted of several thousand poorly supplied men, were “probably not a match for the Azerbaijani forces.”

While many in Armenia blamed Russia for the defeat of the separatists, Moscow pointed to Pashinyan’s own recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

“Undoubtedly, Karabakh is Azerbaijan’s internal business,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “Azerbaijan is acting on its own territory, which was recognized by the leadership of Armenia.”

He voiced hope that Azerbaijan would respect the rights of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population.

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Aliyev and “condemned Azerbaijan’s decision to use force … at the risk of worsening the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh and compromising ongoing efforts to achieve a fair and lasting peace,” the French presidential office said.

Mr. Macron “stressed the need to respect” the cease-fire and “to provide guarantees on the rights and security of the people of Karabakh, in line with international law.”

Azerbaijan’s presidential aide Hikmet Hajiyev said Baku is “ready to listen to the Armenian population of Karabakh regarding their humanitarian needs.”

In announcing its military operation Tuesday, Azerbaijan aired a long list of grievances, accusing pro-Armenian forces of attacking its positions, planting land mines and engaging in sabotage.

Even though Aliyev insisted the Azerbaijani army struck only military facilities during the fighting, separatist officials in Nagorno-Karabakh said Stepanakert and other areas came under “intense shelling.”

Before the cease-fire, explosions reverberated around Stepanakert every few minutes on Wednesday — some in the distance and others closer to the city. Even after the truce was announced and the shelling could no longer be heard in Stepanakert, many residents decided to stay in shelters for the rest of the day.

Significant damage was visible in the city, with shop windows blown out and vehicles punctured, apparently by shrapnel.

The Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s Office said Armenian forces fired at Shusha, a city in Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijan’s control, killing one civilian.

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Azerbaijan opens fire on Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh, three people reported killed

In this photo taken from video and released by Official Twitter account of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Artsakh Republic in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan on September 19, 2023, a damaged residential apartment building following shelling is seen in Stepanakert in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan on Tuesday declared that it started what it called an “anti-terrorist operation” targeting Armenian military positions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and officials in that region said there was heavy artillery firing around its capital.
| Photo Credit: AP

Azerbaijan’s forces opened fire on September 19 on Armenian positions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in what it called an “anti-terrorist operation,” and ethnic Armenian officials reported at least two civilians were killed and 23 wounded amid heavy artillery fire around the region’s capital.

Azerbaijan’s authorities also accused Armenian forces of killing a civilian, which brought the civilian death toll of Tuesday’s hostilities to at least three.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced the start of the operation hours after four soldiers and two civilians died in landmine explosions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The reports raised concerns that a full-scale war over the region could resume between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which fought heavily for six weeks in 2020.

The Ministry did not immediately give details, but said front-line positions and military assets of Armenia’s armed forces were being “incapacitated using high-precision weapons,” and that only legitimate military targets were attacked.

Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, however, denied that the country’s weapons or troops were present in Nagorno-Karabakh and called “all rumors” about sabotage and planting landmines in the region “a lie and fabricated.”

In this photo taken from video released by Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan on Tuesday, on Sept. 19, 2023, explosion flame rises over an area which Azerbaijan says hosts Armenian forces’ positions in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan on Tuesday declared that it started what it called an “anti-terrorist operation” targeting Armenian military positions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and officials in that region said there was heavy artillery firing around its capital.

In this photo taken from video released by Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan on Tuesday, on Sept. 19, 2023, explosion flame rises over an area which Azerbaijan says hosts Armenian forces’ positions in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan on Tuesday declared that it started what it called an “anti-terrorist operation” targeting Armenian military positions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and officials in that region said there was heavy artillery firing around its capital.
| Photo Credit:
AP

Ethnic Armenian officials in Nagorno-Karabakh said in a statement that the region’s capital Stepanakert and other villages were “under intense shelling.”

Nagorno-Karabakh human rights ombudsman Geghan Stepanyan said two people were killed in the firing — including one child — and 23 were wounded. At least eight of those injured also are children, according to Stepanyan.

The Azerbaijani Prosecutor General’s Office said Tuesday that Armenian forces fired at Shusha, a well-known city in Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijan’s control, from large-caliber weapons, and one civilian was killed there as a result.

Although Azerbaijan said the operation was limited to military targets, the defense ministry said that “humanitarian corridors” had been created for “the evacuation of the population from the danger zone.”

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said the military operation may be part of a plan by Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev to get ethnic Armenians to leave the area.

“Maybe what we’re looking at, and again, it’s very early to say, is a kind of limited military action which will try to coerce thousands of Armenians to flee to Armenia. And then Aliyev can achieve his objective of taking over Karabakh with not so much bloodshed,” de Waal told The Associated Press.

Earlier Tuesday, Azerbaijan said six people were killed in two separate explosions in the region that is partly under the control of ethnic Armenian forces.

A statement from Azerbaijan’s Interior Ministry, state security service and prosecutor-general said two employees of the highway department died before dawn when their vehicle was blown up by a mine and that a truckload of soldiers responding to the incident hit another mine, killing four.

Nagorno-Karabakh and sizable surrounding territories were under ethnic Armenian control since the 1994 end of a separatist war, but Azerbaijan regained the territories and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself in a six-week war in 2020. That war ended with an armistice that placed a Russian peacekeeper contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh.

However, Azerbaijan alleges that Armenia has smuggled in weapons since then. The claims led to a blockade of the road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, causing severe food and medicine shortages in the region.

Red Cross shipments of flour and medical supplies reached Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday, but local officials said road connections to the region were not fully open.

The hostilities come amid high tensions between Armenia and its longtime ally Russia. Armenia has repeatedly complained that the 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force was unable or unwilling to keep the road to Armenia open even though that duty was stipulated in the agreement that ended the 2020 war.

Armenia also angered Russia, which maintains a military base in the country, by holding military exercises with the United States this month and by moving toward ratifying the Rome Convention that created the International Criminal Court, which has indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Tuesday denied claims that Russia was informed in advance of Azerbaijan’s intention to mount the operation, saying the peacekeepers were notified only “a few minutes” before it began.

Analyst de Waal said that the Russian peacekeeping force “has lost probably its best officers to the war in Ukraine” but that ”this breakdown in Armenia-Russian relations is a factor here.

“I think it encourages Azerbaijan to be bolder and it makes the Russians more ambiguous and less willing to to intervene. And, you know, it’s quite possible indeed, that the Russians want to use a crisis to instigate regime change in Armenia,” he said.

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Pashinyan: ‘Nobody promised it was going to be easy to reach peace’

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Euronews that a road to reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible, but work needs to be done.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says that peace is a must between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has been host to some of worst violence in the south Caucasus’ recent history.  

After prolonged fighting between both sides over the mountainous enclave, a ceasefire was brokered by Russia in 2020. Since then both countries have been exploring avenues for peace.  

“Not only there can be, but there must be peace. This is my belief, my position. And this is what I believe in. But for this to happen, it’s also important for the international community to be aware of important nuances,” the Prime Minister told Euronews.

There have been two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Sitting down separately with both Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev, Euronews’ international correspondent Anelise Borges asked the same questions to both leaders – and offered them a chance to express their points of view without interruption or contest.

To watch the full Global Conversation interview with Prime Minister Pashinyan click on the player above.

Full transcript

Anelise Borges, Euronews:

This region has been the stage of some of the most violent episodes in the south Caucasus’ recent history. And the tensions have not really gone away since the 2020 peace deal. To what do you attribute the constant hostility?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: First of all. The document was signed on November 9th, 2020. It is not a peace treaty or a peace deal, as you said, in its legal sense, but not so much as de facto, a number of its provisions are gravely, grossly violated. I agree with you that it can be and it is a certain concept of the future piece of architecture. And unfortunately, many provisions are regularly violated by Azerbaijan. They are currently violated. Now, you see, you said in your question, speaking of Nagorno-Karabakh – and everyone understands that – but Azerbaijan, for instance, continues to claim there is no Nagorno-Karabakh. Although the November nine trilateral statement, defines the existence of Nagorno-Karabakh as an entity, and the president of Azerbaijan signed that statement. 

Moreover, it reads that in Nagorno-Karabakh there is a line of contact, and Nagorno-Karabakh has a territory that is defined by paragraph seven of the trilateral statement. Moreover, paragraph seven of the statement provides that refugees and internally displaced persons shall return to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and the related districts under the auspices of the UNHCR. Unfortunately to date, Azerbaijan has not secured it and this right has not fulfilled its obligation. Moreover, during the war, in a number of villages that the Armenian population was forced to flee from, they are carrying out construction works and Azerbaijan declares that it will resettle these territories with Azerbaijanis and all these factors, let alone that until now, in spite of paragraph eight of the trilateral statement, the prisoners of war, captives, hostages, other detained persons, other persons held have not been returned. 

There have been 33 prisoners, and recently two more persons got abducted. Now, turning to the Lachin corridor, which is mentioned in the trilateral statement to which you referred, the purpose of which is to ensure the link between Nagorno-Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia by signature of the President of Azerbaijan that this corridor must be under the control of Russian peacekeepers. The Lachin corridor, by the way, is not just a road. I want to draw your attention. It’s a five-kilometre wide space. It is currently illegally blocked by Azerbaijan.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: We’ll get to the Lachin corridor later. I wanted to ask you about these peace negotiations. You’ve been back from Brussels where you met the President of Azerbaijan, you’ve been meeting several times under the mediation of the EU as well. These peace talks have been filling many people with hope of lasting peace in this region. From what you’re saying we’re wrong to be hopeful so can there be peace and what can you tell us about what came out of these talks in Brussels?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: “Not only there can be, but there must be peace. This is my belief, my position. And this is what I believe in. But for this to happen, it’s also important for the international community to be aware of important nuances. To be clear about why there isn’t progress at a sufficient pace. Let me go back to our penultimate meeting in Brussels when European Council President Charles Michel was present and I and the president of Azerbaijan agreed, or rather, we reached an understanding that Armenia and Azerbaijan will. Mutually recognised territories: the territory of Armenia. 

The 29,800 kilometres and the 86,600 square kilometres of Azerbaijan. The territorial integrity of each other. After that, Charles Michel made a statement to that end. After which, when Armenian journalists asked me about it, I publicly confirmed the facts. Up to this point, the president of Azerbaijan has publicly not confirmed that understanding. He has not denied it either. Now, this is a subtlety that creates a certain lack of trust. And our understanding also is that between Baku and Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, the main city there, there must be a dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert about the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in the framework of an international mechanism. 

And that dialogue so far has not taken place but we need to follow up on this and we need to work for this. Nobody promised it was going to be easy to reach peace. If it were easy, it would have long ago been achieved.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: What about the mediation of the EU? Many international actors attempted to mediate this crisis, Russia, the US and now the EU has been playing a bigger role, what do they bring to the negotiation table?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: I would like to start off by emphasising that the advantages of mediation have long been known to everyone. But all mediations come with certain shortcomings. They all have shortcomings, and each mediation has its peculiar shortcoming. And if you allow me, I’ll speak about the shortcoming. Look for the Brussels platform, that’s the problem we see and it’s been a continuous problem, is that around the table we reach a certain understanding and we do this in the presence of the European Council President. And if either side does not honour that understanding, or does not deliver upon that understanding, this is not followed even by a public assessment or specific assessments. 

Here’s a specific example in my presence and in the presence of the European Council President, back at the end of last year, Azerbaijan promised and undertook that in the next week to 15 days, and that was last year, they would let 10 prisoners of war. They have still not honoured that commitment. On the other hand, though, I assume that effective mediation is when the failure to honour and understand will be followed by at least a show of political attitude towards the one that fails to honour that commitment. At the Brussels platform, for instance, we are not seeing this. I keep raising this question. Let me even break a secret to you. We’ve even prepared a document that we called an audit, where we enumerate the understandings that were reached at the Brussels platform but were subsequently not honoured. And it’s quite a thick package. It turned out quite a thick package, which is alarming.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: You’re saying that Brussels is not following up when it comes to the shortcomings of either side?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: If without diplomacy, then yes.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: Do you think that the fact that the West has been playing a bigger role here, the US and Europe, has antagonized a more traditional, regional power broker Russia, or the other way around, the fact that Russia is more involved in a buck down in Ukraine has given more space to other players to come and help you and Azerbaijan and potentially find common ground.

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Those episodes do occur when we see some geopolitical jealousy. We’ve seen this, but I’m glad to say that now the emphasis seems to have changed somewhat, and that change concerns what we hear from different sides’ statements that any platform that is going to be favourable for the peace process, they would welcome and they will continue to welcome such platforms. And this is very important. Let me remind you that these international competition scenes are not linked with us directly. Because the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have been created for addressing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But since February 24, 2022, the co-chairs simply stopped interacting. 

Some of them decided they do not want to interact with the other co-chairs, and that’s when a problem came up. You’re referring or what I call geopolitical jealousy that emerged after that date. Before that, such a genre did not exist. But on the other hand, it would be more productive if the international partners bring together their efforts. There have recently been signs that nevertheless, they are somewhat interested in this latter logic.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: President Putin has invited you and the President of Azerbaijan for another round of talks in Moscow. What would you say Russia’s influence in this region is like today?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Let me first say that I have not received any invitation yet, I have to emphasise that. Regarding Russia’s presence, of course, due to the virtue of the events in Ukraine, not just Russia, but other geopolitical actors’ interest in our region has been declining because in practice Ukraine is where all the international attention is focussed. And yes, that is a factor. But Russia is present in our region. Russia is present in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia is present in the Republic of Armenia. 

But the EU is present too. Which is a new factor. The EU Civilian Mission on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the mission was supposed to be on both sides. Initially, that was the understanding which was reached in Prague on October 6, 2022, during the quadrilateral statement. That was when the EU mission first came to our region. Initially, it seemed that we had agreements to have the EU mission present on both sides of the border. But for unknown reasons, Azerbaijan withdrew or gave up on that.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: Let’s talk about the situation on the ground. You talked about the International Court of Justice, the European Court of Human Rights, the US, and the EU, which have all demanded guarantees for the freedom of movement in the Lachin corridor. What do you know about what’s happening in this which is a crucial gateway for the people inside of Nagorno Karabakh?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Regarding the International Court of Justice, I want to view it separately from the other factors that you listed, because the decision of the International Court of Justice is legally binding. That is the highest international court, the decisions of which have the highest legal force. Based on Armenia’s application on 22nd February 2023, it decided that Azerbaijan must do everything within its reach to ensure the free movement of vehicles, goods and citizens in both directions through the Lachin corridor and on July 6, the court reiterate it, confirmed its decision. This is very important also for the logic of the international legal order because the international highest court’s decision is not being followed in terms of law and legality. I think this is a bad message and it’s food for thought for the international community. 

Anyway, we will be raising this issue in international instances. Now, what’s happening in Nagorno-Karabakh, there’s a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. What is a humanitarian crisis? No food is being supplied to Nagorno-Karabakh, no food. There’s no external supply of food. A number of essential commodities are not being supplied. Baby food is not supplied, and medication is not available. No hygiene supplies. No other essential goods are there. Natural gas supplied to Nagorno-Karabakh was interrupted by Azerbaijani electricity supply to Nagorno-Karabakh, it was interrupted by Azerbaijan. The supply of fuel was interrupted by Azerbaijan. So in this sense, there’s a real threat of hunger, as well as health problems and so on and so forth.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: You know that they deny all this, right? Azerbaijan keeps denying that the Aghdam road is accessible.

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: I don’t know what you’re referring to because I’m speaking about the document that I signed. Which is which has the status of an international document. It reads clearly that the Lachin corridor, which is under the control of the Russian peacekeepers. And it’s not just the road, it’s a five-kilometre-wide area. It must be out of Azerbaijan’s control and it must ensure a link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. Well, in principle it may sound absurd, but the road from the moon to Nagorno-Karabakh is open too. But I cannot refer to institutions which are not known to me or from Mars or from the Moon or wherever else. I’m speaking about what is documented. A notion that is on paper now that road is now closed. If anyone doubts you can take a trip there and try to reach there. Go to Nagorno Karabakh. 

By the way, yesterday the ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross) made a statement saying it is no longer able to deliver humanitarian relief to Nagorno-Karabakh because of the closure of the Lachin corridor. What does this mean? This means that the ICRC officially declared the necessity of delivery of humanitarian aid to Nagorno-Karabakh. Otherwise, they wouldn’t say that. Secondly, it’s accepting that they cannot do it because the Lachin corridor is closed. Following that, I think Freedom House, the international institution, also made an appeal, saying it’s necessary to ensure access to humanitarian goods in Nagorno-Karabakh. Yesterday, the government of Armenia decided today this relief is en route. 400 tons of humanitarian goods are currently en route to Karabakh. Let’s see if that reaches Nagorno-Karabakh. Whether that’s under the trilateral statement and the international court’s decision that aid must reach them. Let’s see if it reaches Nagorno-Karabakh. Going back now to the humanitarian crisis. Of course. Especially during this season here are some agricultural activities. 

However, the Azerbaijani army is shooting at farmers’ equipment who’re carrying out agricultural activities. After 2020, we had cases of a tractor driver being killed by an Azerbaijani sniper while carrying out agricultural work. There are no longer tractors operating now because there is no fuel. People cannot harvest the crop if by some miracle they harvest the crop. For instance, those goods, because of the absence of fuel the harvest cannot reach, cannot be transported to the flour mills. If by some miracle they turn it into flour, then because of the absence of fuel, it can not be delivered to the bakeries to bake bread. Diesel fuel, electricity, and gas are absent because of that. If by some miracle the flour reaches the bakeries, they cannot bake bread at industrial volumes. If somehow some bread could be baked, then again because of the absence of transportation, that bread is hard or impossible to deliver to the shops if it gets delivered to the shops. There is no public transport. And again, there was no private transport again because of the absence of fuel. So for people to go and to buy that bread in the shops if somehow they managed to get to the shop. 

Because of this blockade, all enterprises have shut down. All people lost their jobs. And people do not have the income to buy bread in the shop. If by some miracle, they have the income to buy bread, the queues are so long and the quantities of goods are so scarce that if by some miracle you reach the shop that limited quantity that by miracle, miracle after miracle reached the shop, after this chain of miracles and is being sold, they may never get to buy it because of the queue. Think of baby food. Imagine young mothers cannot feed babies with baby food. Many of them may have started off not breastfeeding the children, so they started off with formula. And then one day the formula just disappeared.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: I’ve spoken to a journalist inside Stepanakert who described pretty much the same you’re saying painted a very bleak picture for people inside Nagorno Karabakh. I wanted to ask you about the 2020 war. Thousands of people have lost their lives, soldiers, and civilians. I was here in Armenia, I went to Nagorno-Karabakh during that time. I spoke to mothers of fallen soldiers, and I’ve witnessed also the pain and devastation of the other side through the work of my colleague in Azerbaijan. But I remember this one mother here in Armenia who told me that she blamed the death of her son on politicians who were trained in the art of diplomacy but still trapped in the war. Do you think that your mission is to win a war or to negotiate peace?

Anelise Borges, Euronews: You know, in any case, war is wrong. If there’s a war somebody somewhere did something wrong or several people in several places, that something’s wrong. But from the other side, what’s the cause of war? The impossibility of reaching durable peace or of maintaining peace. And that impossibility is it genuine, is it real? Is it authentic, is the other question. Because you spoke about a parent, a mother who spoke about politicians. Well, of course, I understand. And I accept that I’m in no way contesting the fallen soldiers, mothers, wives, children or anything they say. But we forget the context. The politicians are human too. It’s not like they are a special genetic breed. My son was in the war as well. My wife was in the war as well. But now you’re asking a very serious question. It’s a legitimate question indeed. But I think there is so much depth to it. Throughout our existence, humanity, humankind has spoken about the need to avoid wars, about the need to reach peace and… Let’s assume, and this is the building where the politicians were bad are bad. 

What about the thousands of other buildings around the world? How come? Everywhere, in all places. That would be an easy explanation. And there are people who are people and there are politicians. So it’s because of these bad politicians that they’re not allowing these good people to get on with their lives, which is by and large, true. But with one misunderstanding. In a democratic society, they might switch places. The politician might become a human or the human could become a politician and a government official. And the problem is that these cycles have been going on for millennia.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: In a way you mentioned something which is very important. In a way, it seems to be in this region a very particular and tragic cycle. Where the triumph of one side can be achieved by the capitulation of the other side. Today I spoke to a young Armenian who told me she’s a generation of independence and she said back when she was young there used to be talks mediated by Georgia between Azeri kids and Armenian kids. And she says she remembers that very fondly cause they actually could talk. Do you think that if peace is brought up by the politician side, do you think it can be implemented in so much pain and heartbreak or instead should have been built from the bottom to up?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Yes, I believe. To continue what I said, let me draw your attention to nuance. Politicians create, they generate the public mood, but they also bear the public mood and they influence the public mood and they are influenced by the public mood. It’s a very intricate, very complex system. But you spoke about young people. I do remember in 2018, I proposed that idea. And I could see in the social media Armenian and Azerbaijani users. And engaging. A very aggressive exchange of language. And in a public press conference, I urged Armenian and Azerbaijani users of social media, and this was mostly happening on YouTube – this is where they encountered one another under a video -they would leave comments, I said okay, we’ve cursed at each other so much, this is enough. We could use this platform for speaking for dialogue and not just cursing at each other. So I made an appeal. 

But later it turned out the appeal did not have sufficient results. Or maybe we did not follow up on it enough. And in regarding the war logic, we should never forget. Conditionally speaking, the factor of the first blood spilt is because whenever blood spills, there’s a victim, and there’s a casualty. It is a profound social, psychological, political and public moment. That’s very hard for the public and for the politicians. Though, in reality, there is no such division, I reiterate: politicians do influence the public mood, but vice versa they’re also influenced by the public mood. So it’s very hard sometimes to opt for solutions, concessions and decisions which profoundly may be understood that those people who died in the past died for no reason. That’s a problem. Everywhere. Everywhere. And it’s never the problem of one side because. You spoke about the mother of the soldier who died. Imagine what an important factor it is such an important factor that in this discussion now you’re bringing it up as something we need to discuss. But before that or after that even a question may come up. If you now make these concessions or mutual concessions, what about our children? What did they die for? Nobody has the answer to that question. 

Nobody can ever give the answer to that question. And you should know that. This question lies on the table of any politician, even when people understand it’s important not to have any future casualties, they always know, they also have to get the answer to the second question. What about those who died in the past? What did they die for? Was it for no reason that sacrifice? Well, then again, the politicians will be accused of taking those people away and getting them killed. What would then be the purpose, the meaning, the mission of all that is happening? And it’s very hard to explain to people that, you know, your son or your daughter died for future peace. How can this be explained to someone? How can you die for peace? If our whole purpose is peace.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: Do you lose sleep at night over what happened three years ago?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Obviously and naturally yes. Not that I think about it a lot. It’s very hard to sit these thoughts aside for a second and then go work on doing your daily job.

Anelise Borges, Euronews: I’ve got one final question for you. I wanted to if you have a message to the other side, not the politicians you meet during the talks, but the people of Azerbaijan. Do you happen to have a message to those who are watching us right now?

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian PM: Well, you know, I think it’s not a good genre because when two politicians are speaking with one another, It’s really the two peoples speaking, because on one side is the person elected by those people, and on this side is a person elected by these people. So, therefore everything that I said now, this is an international platform, this is also addressed to that people and if there’s anything to communicate, I would say what I have been saying the from the start. Everything I said is also addressed to the Azerbaijani people, to the people of Azerbaijan. 

But in some cases, there are sentences that people normally say, oh, we have long lived here and we will long be living here. I think all the words have already been said. By the way, there is perhaps something which I would address equally to the public of Armenia and the public of Azerbaijan because the public of Armenia and Azerbaijan both must demand peace from their governments. It should be articulated as a public demand. And [there needs to be] peace, flexibility and skill to deliver that requirement.

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Why is a former NATO chief lobbying for a CSTO member? | VIEW

It is easy to forget in this time of war in Ukraine that NATO is an organisation supposed to enable peace.

So, why would anyone raise questions when a past NATO secretary general goes to a country not in the NATO alliance to foster or pitch peace between it and its long-term rival and neighbour?

This happened in mid-March when former Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen visited Armenia — an ex-Soviet nation in the Caucasus — trying to negotiate a peace treaty with its neighbour Azerbaijan after a conflict two years ago. 

But when Armenia is not just a member of Russia’s six-nation CSTO military alliance, but the chair of the organisation — and the former NATO chief was being paid by the Armenian government for the visit — it calls for some answers.

Rasmussen didn’t mention this in any of the interviews, tweets, and media articles he generated, something he should have done even when his transactional relationship with Russia’s military ally is listed in the EU’s lobbyist register

By not being upfront, he’s been disingenuous, which is unbecoming of a man of his status.

Rasmussen still surprised many — and triggers a bot army

But the real surprise is what he said while the Armenians were paying. In the most significant media interview of his visit, he raised the prospects for peace, and extolled the undeniable economic benefits for the people of Armenia if a peace treaty is signed with their neighbour. 

He also raised the fact that to achieve that peace, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh — an unrecognised majority Armenian ethnic breakaway state inside the borders of Azerbaijan — needs to be settled.

In that, he has a point: whether or not Armenia is friends with Russia — and membership of both Moscow’s Eurasian Economic Union and its military alliance could be read as a hint that they might be close — doesn’t change the fact that peace with the neighbours tends to benefit every country.

His view that peace is good and economic progress even better nonetheless sent the social media warriors berserk. 

Rasmussen was soon being assailed, as James Jay Carafano of the Heritage Foundation once described, by “more trolls than ever appeared in The Lord of Rings”. 

One even accused him of basically doing Azerbaijan’s public relations for them. If only they knew.

Are Armenia’s government and diaspora headed for a split?

Yet perhaps the Armenian government picked the right lobbyist. 

Far from telling the powerful Armenian diaspora in the US and France — who have long influenced the foreign policy direction for the Armenian state — what they want to hear, he told it as it is. 

Peace and economic cooperation with neighbouring Azerbaijan is, ultimately, the only viable route to a better life for the poor and undeniably long-suffering citizens of Armenia when the alternative remains continued Russian-dependent isolation.

To ex-Soviet-state-watchers such as myself, it has appeared for some time that the paths of the Armenian state and Armenian diaspora have been diverging. 

Like in my own Lithuania, the first few years of Armenian independence saw its leaders drawn from the diaspora. 

Then, after Armenia won a war against Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, they came from Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani territory they occupied in victory. 

While ignoring four UN resolutions — supported by every single NATO country in successive votes — upholding the legal status of the region as a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan, the diaspora has long lobbied for recognition of Armenian-occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, also called Artsakh, as an independent state.

Meanwhile, Armenia and Azerbaijan are being fair and measured

But in the last two years, things have changed. Azerbaijan won back the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh in a conflict in 2020. Today, only a rump remains under Armenian control. 

Few serious international experts today would argue against the view that it is only a matter of time before this matter is settled — and in favour of international law.

It is not hard to read between the lines and conclude Rasmussen is merely voicing the conclusion of his own Armenian government client on the direction of travel, perhaps expressing what, for political reasons, they themselves have found it difficult to say publicly. 

Indeed, the social media army that descended on Rasmussen were perhaps revealing their frustration that their version of Nagorno-Karabakh’s future may be slipping away.

Was Rasmussen right to go? Certainly, he should have been more upfront that this was a paid work trip.

But his visit appeared to open the door for Yerevan to speak with more clarity than before about their own agenda: right after he departed, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan criticised the CSTO and tweeted his conviction that there would be a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. 

He then said the “international community must strongly support this narrative”. Azerbaijan responded through their Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada, who said that “territorial integrity and sovereignty must prevail in our region”. 

They were some of the fairest, most measured words said by the two nations in response to each other in public for years.

Rasmussen called for arming Armenia instead

Since he departed, Rasmussen has slightly changed his tune. Perhaps those Lord of the Rings trolls are having their effect. 

In an op-ed for Project Syndicate, he proposed the EU armed Armenia to prevent another conflict with Azerbaijan.

The EU, of course, can’t provide enough arms to Ukraine or even itself, but perhaps that message at least lessened the Twitter attacks.

Still, Rasmussen has certainly shone a light on the surprising reality that Armenia’s real long-term ally, like it or not, has to be its neighbour and sworn enemy, Azerbaijan.

_Saul Anuzis is a Lithuanian-American former advisor to the Lithuanian independence movement Sąjūdis and a former member of the Republican National Committee in the US. _

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at [email protected] to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

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