Tag: Armed Forces of Ukraine

Ukraine war: New German anti-aircraft systems, Google fined

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The latest developments from the war in Ukraine.

New anti-aircraft systems

Ukraine announced on Thursday that it had received new German Iris-T anti-aircraft systems to protect its skies, at a time when its southern and eastern regions are increasingly being targeted by distant Russian strikes.

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“A big thank you to our partners for the Iris-Ts”, the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, Andriï Iermak, praised on X, formerly Twitter.

He added that with these short-range air defence systems, “Our skies will be more protected.”

According to data updated on Thursday on the German government’s website, Berlin has delivered “two Iris-T SLS launchers” to Kyiv.

Since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has tirelessly asked its Western allies to help it protect its skies, which are largely dominated in the air by the Russian army.

Google fined

A Russian court on Thursday imposed a 3-million-ruble (€29,000) fine on Google for failing to delete allegedly false information about the conflict in Ukraine.

The move by a magistrate’s court follows similar actions in early August against Apple and the Wikimedia Foundation, which hosts Wikipedia.

According to Russian news reports, the court found that the YouTube video service, which is owned by Google, was guilty of not deleting videos with incorrect information about the conflict.

Google was also found guilty of not removing videos that suggested ways of gaining entry to facilities which are not open to minors, news agencies said, without specifying what kind of facilities were involved.

In Russia, a magistrate’s court typically handles administrative violations and low-level criminal cases.

Google declined to comment. However, there’s little that Moscow can do to collect the fine.

The US tech giant’s Russia business was effectively shut down last year after the conflict began. The company has said that it filed for bankruptcy in Russia after its bank account was seized by the authorities, leaving it unable to pay staff and suppliers.

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Election monitoring group leader investigated

The Russian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into one of the leaders of a prominent independent election monitoring group, the target’s lawyer said Thursday.

The case against Grigory Melkonyants, co-chair of Russia’s leading election watchdog Golos, is the latest step in the months-long crackdown on Kremlin critics and rights activists that the government ratcheted up after sending troops into Ukraine.

Melkonyants’ lawyer, Mikhail Biryukov, said his client is facing charges of “organising activities” of an “undesirable” group, a criminal offence punishable by up to six years in prison.

Golos itself has not been formally deemed “undesirable”, a label that under a 2015 law makes involvement with such organisations a criminal offence. But it was once a member of the European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations, a group that was declared “undesirable” in Russia in 2021.

Police raided the homes of a further 14 Golos members on Thursday in eight different cities, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti reported. Melkonyants’ apartment in Moscow was also raided, and he was taken in for questioning.

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In an interview on Thursday, David Kankiya, a governing council member at Golos, linked the pressure on the group to the upcoming regional elections in Russia in September and the presidential election that is expected to take place in the spring of 2024.

“We see this as a form of political pressure and an attempt to stifle our activities in Russia,” he said.

Ukrainian official vows to retake Crimea

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against invading Russian forces will continue “no matter how long it takes” until the whole of the country, including Crimea, is liberated, according to the country’s foreign minister.

“Our objective is victory, victory in the form of the liberation of our territories within the 1991 borders. And it doesn’t matter how long it takes,” said Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with AFP news agency. 

“As long as the Ukrainian people share this objective, the Ukrainian government will move forward hand in hand with its people”, he added.

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The 1991 borders are those of the independent Ukraine that emerged at the fall of the USSR. They include Crimea, a peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

Kuleba’s comments were published after senior NATO official suggested at an event this week that Ukraine could give up territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership and an end to the war. 

Stian Jenssen, the chief of staff to the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, has since apologised for the comments. 

Sarkozy intervention condemned

Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s plea in the newspaper Le Figaro for a “neutral” Ukraine and a referendum to “ratify” the annexation of Crimea is “a terrible mistake”, according to French MP Julien Bayou, who said the former premier “must be regarded as [an agent of] Russian influence”.

The former head of state’s wide-ranging interview, ahead of the publication of a new volume of his memoirs, stunned Mr Bayou, who said on LCI that “a former president should not say that”.

By “going against the French position on the annexation of Crimea” and “sweeping aside the war crimes of which the Russians and (Vladimir) Putin are accused”, the former president has committed “a terrible mistake”, insisted Mr Bayou.

UK confident of Ukraine’s fuel reserves

The UK’s Ministry of Defence says it is confident Ukraine will have sufficient fuel reserves to get through winter despite Russian attacks on the country’s infrastructure. 

In its latest defence intelligence update, it says Ukraine has managed to mobilise its mining sector to ensure a continuous supply of coal is available, with gas stocks providing a further reserve. 

Man tried to set fire to military centre

A man in his twenties has been sentenced to 10 years in prison in Russia for attempting to set fire to a military enlistment centre.

According to information from non-governmental organisation OVD-info, which reports on politically motivated trials in Russia, Andrei Petrauskas was convicted of throwing two Molotov cocktails at a military police station in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, in October 2022.

A small fire broke out, and was quickly brought under control by police officers. The man, born in 1998, was on trial for “terrorist acts”, a particularly serious charge.

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, several people have been convicted of attempting to set fire to military recruitment centres or administrative buildings. These attempts have become more frequent since a partial mobilisation of reservists in September 2022.



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Ukraine special forces footage appears to show Bakhmut battle

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Ukraine has released what it says is helmet-camera footage from its special forces clearing a Russian position in Bakhmut. Kyiv says it has stopped the enemy and pushed it back, with President Zelenskyy telling his people the Russians are mentally prepared for defeat.

Ukrainian military commanders said on Friday that their troops had recaptured more territory from Russian forces at the scene of the war’s longest and bloodiest battle, for the eastern city of Bakhmut, but it wasn’t clear if this marked the start of Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive.

In a separate incident, two-long range Ukrainian rockets hit what Russian described as administrative buildings of two defunct enterprises in Russian-occupied Luhansk in the east.

Russia’s Defence Ministry, meanwhile, said Ukrainian forces had stepped up attacks north of the Bakhmut region while denying speculation by Russian military bloggers that the Kyiv forces had achieved “defence breakthroughs.”

The two kilometres of territory that Ukrainian forces south of Bakhmut retook this week represent a significant gain and will protect an important supply chain, according to commanders of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, a special forces unit that led the attack, releasing what it said was helmet camera footage from one its soldiers.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he met with the top military commanders on Friday, noting that Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi reported his forces “stopped the enemy and even pushed him back in some directions.”

In his nightly address to the Ukrainian people, Zelenskyy praised his troops and noted the low morale of the Russian forces.

“The occupiers are already mentally prepared for defeat. They have already lost this war in their minds,” he said. “We must push them every day so that their sense of defeat turns into their retreat, their mistakes, their losses.”

In a statement on Telegram on Friday, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar confirmed that Ukrainian forces gained ground around Bakhmut, reiterating statements from military commanders earlier this week.

In Washington, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US has assessed that Bakhmut remains contested territory.

“Ukrainians have not given up their defence of Bakhmut and the Russians haven’t given up their attempts to take Bakhmut,” Kirby said. “Every single day, the lines change back and forth. I mean, sometimes block by block.”

The US maintains that Bakhmut has limited strategic value but that Russia has absorbed an enormous loss of troops and weaponry in the battle for the former salt-mining town that has been grinding on for eight months.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the millionaire owner of Russia’s private military contractor Wagner who is a frequent critic of the Russian military, slammed it again for losing ground around Bakhmut and exposing his forces battling for the city.

In a video statement Friday, Prigozhin mocked the Russian Defence Ministry’s report claiming that its forces regrouped to take more favourable positions, saying they effectively fled and “our flanks are crumbling.”

He warned that the Ukrainian forces have reclaimed key heights around the city and effectively unblocked the key supply link to Bakhmut. Prigozhin again accused the military leadership of refusing to provide sufficient ammunition to Wagner.

“You must immediately stop lying,” Prigozhin said, addressing Russia’s military leaders. “If you fled, you must prepare new defensive lines.”

Prigozhin – who seems to use harsh criticism to pressure the Kremlin for more support and improve his stature – alleged the Defence Ministry’s failure to protect Wagner’s flanks amounted to high treason and could result in a “great tragedy” for Russia.

Apparently denying Prigozhin’s claim of abandonment, Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Russian airborne units are still supporting ground forces to “stop the attempts of the Ukrainian armed forces to counterattack on the flanks.”

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, explained the spat as being “reflective of increased panic in the Russian information space over speculations about planned Ukrainian counter-offensives.” This indicates increased concern among leaders of Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry as well as “reflecting Kremlin guidance to avoid downplaying Ukrainian successes,” it said.

Ukrainian military officials have dismissed speculation that the fighting and forward movement in Bakhmut signalled that its anticipated counteroffensive was underway. Zelenskyy said in remarks broadcast Thursday that Kyiv was delaying the campaign because it lacks enough Western weapons. Some saw the comments as designed to keep Russia guessing about Ukraine’s next move.

Addressing the nation Friday evening, Zelenskyy said more arms were coming “to defeat the aggressor and restore peace.”

The territorial gains occurred near the Siversky-Donets canal, between the villages of Ivanivske and Kurdiumivka, according to a commander of the 1st Assault Battalion of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. He spoke on condition he be referred to only by his call sign of “Rollo,” in line with Ukrainian military protocol.

“This was the enemy’s bridgehead, which they intended to use in their future attacks along the canal, in the direction of Kostiantynivka,” he said. “We had to neutralise the enemy and push them to the other side of the canal.”

Another commander and a military spokesman corroborated his account.

Kostiantynivka is part of an important logistics chain that leads to the city of Kramatorsk.

Rollo said the gains followed other successes, including one that secured an access road near Khromove, north of Bakhmut, and another that allowed Ukrainian forces to reclaim lost positions in the Industrial College inside Bakhmut city.

The assault south of Bakhmut was followed by a reported increase in Ukrainian offensive actions near the city of Soledar on Thursday, Russia’s Defence Ministry said. Russia repelled 26 Ukrainian attacks carried out by over 1,000 soldiers, the ministry said, adding that up to 40 tanks were involved.

The slow and grinding fight for Bakhmut has been costly for both sides, with Ukraine seeking to deny Russia any territorial gains despite its marginal strategic significance. Ukrainian forces are stationed in the city, while Russian troops are attacking from the north, east and south.

In other fighting, at least two people were killed and 22 injured elsewhere in the country since Thursday, according to figures from the Ukrainian President’s Office.

Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said a Russian strike hit Kramatorsk, where some Ukrainian military units are based, destroying a school and residential building. Russian shelling hit 11 cities and villages in the region, killing 12 civilians, he said.

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The anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive: When, where and how?

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The Ukrainian military has been talking since late last year about plans for a major counter-offensive.

The Pentagon documents, if they are to be believed, indicated that the offensive was planned to start on 30 April.

In late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were not yet ready for large-scale operations. And Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal indicated in mid-April that a counteroffensive could be expected in the summer.

When will the operation start?

Western experts are more inclined to the prime minister’s position: late autumn, or even early summer.

“They want good weather conditions so that they can conduct offensive manoeuvre operations,” said Robert Cullum, Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London.

“They’ll be trying to generate and sustain their own forces, but they’ll also be trying to get ahead of Russian attempts to dig in and fortify their own position. So they’ll be trying to balance those three things off. And I think the kind of window of opportunity is within the next one to two months. So April, May, into early June.”

But even before that, there is no doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will conduct battlefield reconnaissance and limited-scale operations to identify weaknesses in the Russian defence.

Possible plans by Kyiv

Ukrainian politicians and military officials say the ultimate goal should be the liberation of all Ukrainian territory, including the annexed Crimea and the territory of the separatist republics in the east of the country. But this is unlikely to be done in a single operation in the near future.

Zaporizhzhia

The most obvious target of a Ukrainian offensive, according to experts, could be a strike in the direction of the Sea of Azov, in the Zaporizhzhia region, around Melitopol. This could split the occupied territories in two, cut the land routes to Crimea and the Kherson region, and allow artillery to bombard the Crimean peninsula, the naval base in Sevastopol and the Crimean bridge. This is the scenario most often discussed by politicians, the military and experts alike.

But the problem here for Kyiv is that this strike direction is also obvious for Moscow. It has been repeatedly reported that Russian troops are seriously reinforcing their positions in the region.

“The problem then is the availability of forces because they have then two open flanks, one in the west towards Crimea, one in the east towards the Donbas, and they have to cover these two open flanks against Russian counter-attacks against both sides,” said Gustav Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations.

“So the deeper they go, the more forces they will need to just cover the flanks and push the offensive forward that might slow them down and that might also sort of swallow a considerable amount of forces.”

Experts consider a more realistic objective for Kyiv would be to advance 30 kilometres into the Melitopol area, so that Russian supply routes are in the range of Ukrainian artillery.

Flanks: Kherson and Luhansk

Vladimir Putin’s visit to the occupied regions of Kherson and Luhansk, which was announced on 18 April, is also linked by many experts to the preparation of defence in these directions, the flanks of the Russian grouping.

In the event of an offensive in these directions, Kyiv will have to worry less about securing its flanks, but in each case there are disadvantages.

In the Luhansk region, Kremenna, Svatove, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk could be the focus of Ukrainian strikes. Fighting in this area has been going on with varying success for a long time. However, the terrain there is wooded and rugged. Heavy Western equipment would be difficult to use in these conditions.

An offensive in the Kherson region could be the shortest route to Crimea for Ukrainian troops. But in order to do so they would have to cross the Dnieper River. The most difficult aspect, according to experts, will not be the formation operation itself, but the need to preserve and hold the crossings and bridges – which will undoubtedly become the most important target for Russian aviation and tactical missiles. Russian strikes against them could cut off and isolate the advancing Ukrainian grouping.

Air and artillery superiority

In theory, one important factor in a successful offensive should be air superiority. The advancing group, and its supply lines, must be protected during the operation.

Kyiv has repeatedly spoken of a shortage of both combat and air defence aircraft. If the same Pentagon documents that have surfaced online are to be believed, Ukraine will run out of missiles for “Soviet” long- and medium-range air defence systems by May, that is if used at the current rate, even without taking into account a possible offensive.

But this is about protection against Russian strikes on cities. For the front, according to experts, it is not such a serious problem.

“Yes, they don’t have air superiority, which is, of course, not ideal. But on the other hand, most of their reconnaissance is not done by aircraft,” said Gustav Gressel. “And also most of their strike missions are not done by aircraft like it’s done in NATO. It’s done by artillery, just like in the Russian army.”

“It’s been a very artillery intensive war,” said Robert Cullum. “Both sides have used artillery and artillery ammunition in enormous quantities, both on the attack and the defence. So another problem they have to overcome is the supply of artillery ammunition, which is a key enabler of military success in this war.”

Still, the lack of “frontline” air defence assets could significantly reduce the chances of the AFU if the Russian army makes extensive use of aircraft to counter the Ukrainian offensive, and here the West will not be able to provide significant support.

On the intelligence side, Kyiv has the advantage of access to U.S. and NATO information, as well as information from guerrillas in the occupied territories.

Pentagon leaks

However, the leaks of secret Pentagon documents could be a disadvantage for Kyiv.

“The American point of view is that the Russians now know how deep and with what means the American intelligence services can look into the Russian planning and Russian command and control structure, and they might adjust, for example, their codes or the encryption to prevent that,” said Gustav Gressel.

“ If that happens, and if Western intelligence at a time of the counter-offensive is less precise than it used to be, that would be a bad thing for Ukrainians.”

How can Russia counter the Ukrainian counter-offensive?

According to Western intelligence, Russia is fortifying almost the entire front line on Ukrainian territory, some 800 km long. These strips, according to media reports, consist of several lines of anti-tank trenches, trenches, barbed wire, obstacles and all sorts of fortified firing points.

The quality of these barriers has been questioned by Western experts; nevertheless, even in this form they will be a serious obstacle for the attackers if they do not have sufficient artillery and engineering support.

As stated above, Kyiv will need many forces to support its flanks to develop deep breaks; these forces will inevitably be redeployed from other directions, which the Russian army can take advantage of to launch counterstrikes in weakened areas.

Nuclear defence

The Kremlin has increasingly resorted to nuclear rhetoric in recent months, and at the end of March a decision was taken to deploy Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Experts doubt Russia would resort to a nuclear strike if the Ukrainian push proved successful.

Will the Kremlin decide to use nuclear weapons if the Ukrainian offensive is successful?

“Putin will definitely think twice or three times,” said Gustave Gressel. “To be honest, I don’t believe that he will do it for any region, maybe except for Crimea, because the price is very high and the recipe for success is dubious.”

Will the counter-offensive bring a decisive result?

Ukrainian politicians periodically claim that a decisive counter-offensive in the spring and summer could bring the war to an end before the end of the year. Western experts are very cautious about this, while paying tribute to the high morale of Ukrainians.

“If they’ve achieved significant success, and I think there will be, they’ll be in a position to force the Russians to the table and perhaps extract some kind of concessions, particularly if Crimea is threatened,” said Robert Cullum.

“Putin really won’t want to lose Crimea because it’s such a symbol of his regime’s success. If the Ukrainians haven’t achieved much success, then I think they’ll be facing a lot more pressure from their allies who are really at the limit of what they’re willing to give in terms of assistance and equipment. And so Ukraine will probably face a lot more pressure to find some kind of status quo ceasefire.”

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Ukraine war: A month-by-month timeline of the conflict

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February: The invasion begins

Russia invades on 24 February, a day etched in the mind of every Ukrainian.

Fierce fighting erupts in northern Ukraine as tens of thousands of Russian troops try to take the Ukrainian capital and decapitate the country. Wagner mercenaries are reportedly redeployed from Africa to assassinate the Ukrainian president.

A defiant Zelenskyy films himself walking through the streets of Kyiv, delivering a clear and compelling message: “I am here. We will not lay down any weapons.”

The move by the former comedian-turned-politician instantly becomes a PR masterstroke, rallying ordinary Ukrainians and the world behind him.

The EU throws open its doors to hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring out of Ukraine, with neighbouring countries like Poland, Hungary and Romania heavily praised for their generosity. 

Some criticise the double standards shown by the bloc towards Ukrainians compared to those escaping violence in the Middle East or North Africa.

The United Nations overwhelmingly condemns Russia’s aggression and the West slaps sanctions on Moscow.

March: Horror in Bucha

Shockwaves from the Russian invasion reverberate around the world. 

Food and energy prices climb as attention turns to the wider impact of the war. There are pointed concerns about the cost of living in the west, while food security becomes a worry across huge swathes of the developing world. 

Russian forces encounter stubborn resistance around Kyiv and their advance starts to splutter and stall. Snaking convoys of tanks and military vehicles clog up roads, as military logistics and communications break down.

Some senior Russian commanders are killed trying to check on what is happening at the front.

Grizzly evidence of war crimes emerges as Russian forces pull back from areas around Kyiv. Hundreds of bodies of civilians are found in mass graves in Bucha. Many were bound and shot at close range, while others show signs of torture and rape.

But Russia’s push to capture the Ukrainian capital has failed – for now.

Russia begins cracking down on independent media and festering opposition to the war inside the country, with several local stations shut down and access to foreign media restricted.

April: A new phase of war

A Russian missile strike hits a train station in Kramatorsk on 8 April, killing at least 50 civilians — including women and children — and wounding more than 100. Most of them were trying to evacuate to safety, say Ukrainian officials.

This catastrophe kicks off Moscow’s pivot towards the east as it launches a new offensive to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

A suspected Ukrainian missile sinks the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva. It is a major blow to Moscow’s naval supremacy and military prestige. 

Parents start asking questions about the fate of their missing sons as authorities remain tight-lipped about casualties among the ship’s 500-strong crew.

Nearly two-thirds of Ukraine’s children are now displaced by war, says the UN.

May: NATO grows

Sweden and Finland unveil their bids to join NATO, although there is political opposition from Turkey and Hungary which will continue all year. 

The pair were closely aligned with NATO for decades, but not formally part of the organisation. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited NATO expansion as one of the main reasons for invading Ukraine, but it appears the invasion has had the opposite effect of strengthening the western military alliance.

Russia holds its yearly Victory Day Parade on 9 May to mark the USSR’s defeat of Nazism in the Second World War. 

In a rare glimpse of lighter news, Ukraine wins the Eurovision song contest, though Italian police reveal the event was targeted by Russian hackers.

Fighters in the Azovstal steel mill — the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol — finally hoist up the white flag. Holding out for several apocalyptic weeks in the sprawling Soviet industrial complex, their dogged struggle was watched closely by the world.

June: 100 days of war

100 days of war have now passed. Tens of thousands lay dead, millions more are uprooted from their homes and Ukraine’s historical and cultural sites are devastated by fighting.

Nike leaves Russia, becoming the latest in a string of western brands to exit the country over the war. Experts say these high-profile departures, along with international sanctions, are crippling the Russian economy. 

However, there are still debates about Russia’s economic resilience and whether sanctions are the right approach, with some claiming they unduly affect ordinary Russians and play into the government’s anti-western rhetoric. 

But Russia is not the only one struggling. A global food crisis is looming, with millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain languishing in silos since the start of the war. 

Up to 181 million people in 41 countries could face acute food insecurity and outright famine, UN projections show.

Ukrainian forces recapture Snake Island, a tiny islet off the coast of southern Ukraine in the Black Sea.

July: Russian advances in the east

The last city in the eastern Luhansk region falls to the grinding Russian invasion. Ukraine’s embattled forces focus on defending Donetsk, the second part of the prized Donbas. 

The Donbas, a heavily industrialised region in eastern Ukraine, has become the site of the biggest battle in Europe in generations.

Inflation reaches record highs in the Eurozone, with the euro and the dollar reaching parity (1 EUR = 1 USD).

Russia begins to periodically shut down the Nord Stream gas pipelines in a bid to ratchet up pressure on Europe. European leaders are spooked, teetering on the edge of an energy precipice ahead of winter.

Ukraine and Russia agree to a landmark deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported across the Black Sea. It is a major breakthrough aimed at easing the global food crisis — one that brings a moment of reprieve to millions.

HIMARS missiles from the US begin hitting Russian ammo depots, logistics and command and control systems.

August: Gas exports to Europe stop

Amnesty International publishes a report that accuses Ukraine of riding roughshod with civilian life by placing its military in residential areas. Kyiv acts with outrage, while others maintain its armed forces are not above scrutiny, even if the country is under attack. 

Powerful explosions rock an airbase in the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula.

No side says what they think is behind the string of blasts, which destroy several Russian planes and damage more than 80 buildings. But Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov suggests that Russia’s “military guys” had failed to observe a “very simple” rule: “Don’t smoke in dangerous places”.

Ukraine and Russia have been flirting with catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine for months. But now UN chief Antonio Guterres says the pair should stop their “suicidal attacks” on the nuclear plant, saying both sides should end fighting there. 

A suspected car bomb goes off in Moscow killing TV commentator Daria Dugina, though observers think her father Aleksandr Dugin – dubbed ‘Putin’s brain’ – may have been the intended target.

All gas exports to Europe are halted on 31 August, with Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom citing maintenance work on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Prices surge immediately. 

September: Mobilisation

Ukraine launches a rapid counter-offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, sending Russian units into retreat. 

Zelenskyy raises the Ukrainian flag in the war-scarred city of Izium on 10 September. Occupied by Russia for six months, it is a big strategic win for Kyiv. 

Putin announces a “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, triggering a mass flight of Russians escaping conscription into neighbouring Georgia and Kazakhstan.

The US claims “hundreds of thousands” of Ukrainian citizens are being forcibly deported to Russia in a “series of horrors”.

Almost 1,200 protestors are arrested in cities across Russia after the call-up, as the authority’s vice-like grip on anti-war dissent tightens. Many of these demonstrations are in areas populated by Russia’s ethnic minorities, who claim they are disproportionately targeted by the draft. 

Russia officially annexes Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia on 30 September. In a move branded illegal under international law, Putin says the annexed regions will be part of Russia “forever”.

October: Sabotage

A large explosion tears through a bridge linking Russia and Crimea, which serves as a major supply route for Moscow’s forces fighting in Ukraine. It happens one day after Putin’s birthday.

Kyiv does not take responsibility for the blast, though Russia points to “Ukrainian terror”. Russia’s prestige in the region is dealt a stinging blow.

Russia begins bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, knocking out power and heating ahead of winter. Military analysts tell Euronews this is a “strategy of escalation” intended to “break the national morale”.

The war in Ukraine and rising inflation plunge an additional four million children into poverty, according to an October report by UNICEF. A large proportion of them — 2.8 million — are Russian.

November: Kherson liberated

Ukrainian troops pour into Kherson on 11 November.

The southern port city, once home to 250,000 people, was one of the first to fall to Russian forces, during the early days of the war. There are jubilant scenes across Ukraine, though officials warn of an unfolding humanitarian disaster in the bombed-out ruins.

Poland is put on high alert after a blast near the Ukrainian border kills two. It turns out the deadly explosion was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile.  

Inflation in Europe eases but it is still in painful double digits, hitting 10% in November. Russia is hoping surging consumer prices and new waves of Ukrainian refugees will erode European leaders’ resolve. 

NATO promises to admit Ukraine into the western alliance, though there are considerable doubts over when Kyiv will be allowed to join. 

December: Grim warnings for spring

Zelenskyy heads to the US — his first state visit outside the country since the start of the war.

Saying that Ukraine will “never be alone”, US President Joe Biden promises to send Patriot air defence systems to help Ukraine stave off Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

The US had been reluctant to supply this long-range weapon to Ukraine over fears of inflaming tensions with Russia. Moscow warns Washington over sending more weapons to Kyiv.

Ukrainian authorities raise fears that Russia may try to take Kyiv again in the New Year, after its abortive offensive at the start of the war. 

On Christmas Day, Putin claims Russia is “ready to negotiate” with Ukraine – a demand ruled out by leaders in Ukraine. The Russian president publicly uses the word “war” to refer to his country’s invasion for the first time.

January 2023: Tanks, tanks, tanks

Amid mounting political pressure, Germany finally agrees to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks, paving the way for the US and other NATO allies to follow suit.

Some hailed the move as a significant boost to Kyiv’s war effort -– which could enable fresh offensives -– though others questioned if the number of tanks was enough and whether Ukraine would be able to use them effectively on the battlefield.

Russia slammed it as a “blatant provocation”.

Almost as soon as the tank deliveries got the green light, Kyiv began asking for fighter jets -– something Scholz flatly ruled out.

After months of gritty fighting, Ukraine admits withdrawing from the eastern town of Soledar, reversing Russia’s military fortunes. 

Moscow has portrayed the fight as key to seizing the strategic town of Bakhmut and the prized Donbas region. But the importance of the salt-mining town is debated.

Russia and Belarus begin joint drills, sparking fears that Moscow could use its ally to launch a fresh ground offensive in spring.

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