Macron’s Africa reset struggles to persuade

Paul Taylor is a contributing editor at POLITICO.

PARIS — The bigger the humiliation, the more grandiloquent the relaunch. 

After a year that saw French forces conducting counterinsurgency operations against jihadist rebels hounded out of Mali and Burkina Faso by military coups, anti-colonialist street protests, and Russian disinformation and mercenaries, President Emmanuel Macron announced a fundamental overhaul of France’s Africa strategy. 

“Humility,” “partnership” and “investment” are now the keywords in a reset that Macron outlined in a speech he delivered before embarking on his 18th trip to Africa in just eight years. 

Many Africans were understandably skeptical as the French president took his new doctrine on a tour of Gabon, Angola, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — an eclectic mix of former French, Belgian and Portuguese colonies that have big economic potential, and are being heavily courted by Russia and China as well as Europe. 

“The days of la Françafrique are well and truly over,” Macron insisted in Gabon’s capital Libreville.  He was not the first president to promise an end to the postcolonial manipulation of African politics, with crony ties between the French elite and long-serving African autocrats.  

The French leader’s enunciation of a sea change in Franco-African ties sounded oddly like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s proclamation of a Zeitenwende — an epochal turning point in Berlin’s policy toward Moscow since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“We have reached the end of a cycle of French history in which military questions held preeminence in Africa,” Macron said, the first French president to be born after the end of colonial rule. Henceforth, “there will be no military bases as such,” but “new military partnerships” with African allies, and French forces on the continent will be focusing on training local troops. 

In a conscious effort to shed the mantle of paternalism and hard security, Macron built his four-day trip around the themes of saving African forests, developing agriculture, investing in African business and supporting a transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. He also went clubbing in Kinshasa, beer in hand, with Congolese singer Fally Ipupa. 

He steered clear of France’s traditional West African backyard, where Paris’s counterinsurgency policy suffered its deepest setbacks.

“Our destiny is tied to the African continent. If we are able to seize this chance, we have the opportunity to anchor ourselves to the continent, which will increasingly be one of the youngest and most dynamic economic markets in the world, and one of the great centers of global growth in the decades to come,” Macron said. 

He was making a virtue of necessity, to say the least.  

By shrinking its military footprint without abandoning key footholds in Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gabon and Djibouti, France hopes to avoid further forced retreats from the continent’s strategic corners. Then, referring to Russia’s Wagner mercenaries who have supplanted French forces in Mali and the Central African Republic, Macron said he was sure Africans would soon regret the paramilitary group’s presence.  

But small crowds of anti-French demonstrators in Libreville and Kinshasa were a reminder of France’s tarnished image among many young Africans, as well as accusations of political interference that dog Macron’s attempt at a new start.  

In Gabon, protesters accused the French leader of helping veteran President Ali Bongo’s reelection campaign — a charge he felt obliged to deny. And in the DRC, he faced both public criticism from President Felix Tshisekedi, as well as protests by opposition activists.  

If you’re France, in Africa, you simply can’t win. No one is going to take your professions of good faith, political neutrality, partnership and brotherly love at face value. 

Macron has arguably been the most progressive French president when it comes to Africa, officially acknowledging colonial France’s mistreatment of Algerians, and seeking an ever-elusive reconciliation. He has apologized in Rwanda for his country’s role in failing to prevent the 1994 genocide by Hutu militias against ethnic Tutsis. He has created a commission to investigate colonial massacres in Cameroon too.  

Macron has reached out to youngsters, civil society and start-ups, sometimes over the heads of African governments. He has agreed to scrap the CFA franc — the eight-nation West African currency tied to France — to be replaced by the Eco in 2027. He is the first French leader to have returned cultural treasures to Africa as well, sending a collection of statues to Benin in what is likely to set a precedent. 

Yet, though they make French nationalists’ blood boil, such gestures are too little, too late for many Africans. 

France would probably be best advised to channel its efforts instead under the more politically acceptable banner of the European Union, which is building a comprehensive partnership with the African Union — the key principles of which were outlined at a summit in Brussels in February 2022.  

As bad luck would have it, however, that budding relationship has been overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has monopolized the EU’s political and financial attention. 

Africans clearly see how the bloc — France included — has plowed billions of euros in military and financial assistance into Ukraine, while support for African peace and security efforts has been far more constrained. They also see how Ukraine has gained EU candidate status and been center stage at every summit, while Africa had to struggle to secure even belated help in procuring COVID-19 vaccines.  

Moreover, the war in Ukraine has added to food insecurity and an energy-price squeeze on the continent. For many Africans, Europe seems more concerned with blaming Russia than helping. 

Macron’s African reset is in many ways a halfway house — he admitted as much in his big speech. “We are held accountable for the past without having been totally convincing about the shape of our common future,” he said. 

The decision to rebrand the African bases as joint training ventures was itself reportedly a compromise between advisers who argued against yielding another inch to France’s adversaries, and others who want to shutter most outposts and refocus the armed forces on preparing for possible high-intensity warfare in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. 

While 61 percent of voters think France should stay in Africa because of its economic and security interests — as well as to help prevent mass migration to Europe — an Odoxa poll for Le Figaro showed that a similar majority is pessimistic about Franco-African ties, and doubtful of Macron’s ability to build a new relationship. 

This may not be the last Franco-African reset.



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IMF projects Ethiopia, Angola economies to overtake Kenya

Economy

IMF projects Ethiopia, Angola economies to overtake Kenya


President William Ruto with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa in October 2022. PHOTO | PSCU

Kenya is set to be replaced as the third-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa by Angola and Ethiopia, weakening the East African country’s power to tap investors enticed with a population that has more cash to spend.

Faster GDP growth in Angola and Ethiopia will see Kenya relegated to number five in sub-Saharan Africa’s economic rankings, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that show Nigeria as the largest economy on the continent.

A return to growth linked to higher oil prices saw Angola overtake Kenya last year, according to the IMF, after the nation—which is the continent’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria—ended years of recession.

Ethiopia is this year set to replace Kenya from position four on the back of easing armed conflict in the nation and the continuation of the ambitious economic reform drive aimed at opening up one of Africa’s fastest-growing but most closed economies.

The IMF expects the economies of Ethiopia and Angola this year to expand by 13.5 percent and 8.6 percent respectively on dollar terms.

However, Kenya is projected to record a slower growth of 2.4 percent in the review period as the country grapples with the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, drought, election jitters and disruption of global supply chains by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 46 of the continent’s 54 countries, excluding giants like Morocco and Egypt.

The relegation of Kenya to position five will weaken its hand in the race for foreign direct investment (FDI), which is critical in easing the growing youth unemployment on the continent.

So far, South Africa and Ethiopia have fared better than Kenya in attracting foreign investments eyeing a population that has more cash to spend.

The IMF projects Kenya’s GDP to hit $117.6 billion this year, behind Nigeria ($574 billion), South Africa ($422 billion), Angola ($135 billion) and Ethiopia ($126.2 billion).

From mobile phones, cars, food, and clothes to financial services and entertainment, multinational companies are homing in on lucrative new markets as millions of Africans aspire to claw their way out of still widespread poverty.

Read: IMF downgrades Kenya’s economic growth forecast

African countries that promise to expand middle-class buyers with swelling disposable incomes are in a pole position to attract foreign investments.

Oil-rich Angola will reclaim its third position, which it lost to Kenya in 2020 following years of contraction due to a slump in oil prices.

Angola is the continent’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria, according to OPEC, while Kimberley Process data ranks it as the world’s seventh-biggest producer of rough diamonds.

After five years of recession, Angola’s GDP increased 0.7 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank.

Long dominated by state-owned companies, a legacy of its socialist past, Angola has also embarked on ambitious privatisation programmes but progress has been slow.

Wahoro Ndoho, an economist and past director-general of Public Debt Management for the Treasury, noted that Ethiopia has been on an upward trajectory owing to its aggressive industrialisation and Chinese-like State capitalism where the government cherry-picks sectors and projects to be prioritised.

“But also it (Ethiopia) has a huge population. It was always going to overtake us because of its huge population base,” said Mr Ndoho.

Until the civil war broke out in November 2020, Ethiopia — Africa’s second-most populous country with over 115 million people — had been regarded by development economists as a success story.

Its economy, driven by investment in agriculture, industry and infrastructure, grew on average 7.0 percent annually per capita in the 15 years to 2019, according to World Bank data — one of the fastest rates in the world.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in 2018, launched an ambitious reforms drive aimed at opening up one of Africa’s most closed economies.

It has started the process of privatising its telecoms, banking and sugar sectors. Fighting erupted in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region in November 2020, hitting state economic programmes and deterring foreign investors.

A ceasefire reached in November has raised hopes that Ethiopia’s economic momentum can be restored.

The country is among Africa’s top recipients of foreign investments, becoming a magnet for manufacturers ahead of Kenya.

While Kenya has struggled to retain and attract multinational manufacturers, it has recently become a magnet for technology firms and financial service companies seeking a hub for a larger share of the African market.

Global tech giants, including Microsoft, Alphabet Inc and Facebook, have been increasing investment in Kenya in recent years to take advantage of growing economies with rising access rates to the Internet by a youthful population.

But industrialists, especially multinationals, are constantly on the hunt for bargain production locations much like they do tax havens, a trend that has seen Kenya lose firms like Schneider Electric, Colgate Palmolive and Reckitt Benckiser.

The IMF rankings, however, have been disputed in some quarters.

Mark Bohlund, a Senior Credit Research Analyst at REDD Intelligence, an online information platform that provides intelligence and data on emerging market corporates, noted that the projections are likely to be incorrect.

“Yes, the IMF forecasts are showing that both Angola and Ethiopia are going to be larger than Kenya in 2023 in nominal USD terms. However, these projects are likely to be incorrect as they are based on unrealistic FX estimates and forecasts for both Angola and Ethiopia,” said Bohlund in an email.

Read: Mixed bag as Kenya races to implement Sh288 billion IMF plans

According to Bohlund, the Angolan 2023 nominal GDP projection is based on a forecast of Angolan Kwanza (AOA)452/USD which is where the currency traded in October when the World Economic Outlook forecasts were released.

“But it is now trading at AOA504/USD which leaves the Angolan economy just slightly larger than Kenyan in 2023, ceteris paribus (all factors constant),” said Bohlund.

“The Ethiopian forecast is based on an assumption of ETH 65/USD, which is weaker than the official exchange rate but far stronger than the black-market rate which I believe currently is around ETH95-100/USD.”

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