Although things are slightly better on the poll chart for the Tories the party still has very substantial double-digit deficits to make-up if it is to stand any chance at all at the next election of remaining in power. On the face of it this looks impossible.
Sunak has got into a bit of a mess with his Home Sec appointment and that is going to take some explaining.
Best poll for the party since Sunak took over was Opinium at the weekend which had them 16% behind. Other pollsers have a gap larger than 30%.
Much of this was built up during the disastrous 45 days that Liz Truss was the leader.
Sunak is now in charge though the row over his Home Secretary appointment is not helping things at the moment.
Can we visualise a situation where the Tories are back in lead again? I find that hard to see but you cannot rule anything out. The party’s big problem it has that it has yet to find a way of demonising Keir Starmer.
Although the next general election needn’t take place for another two and a bit years time is slowly running out.
To secure another majority my calculation is that a lead of 5% over Labour is required so we have a very long way to go.
I still find it hard to see how Labour can make the 123 gains that will be necessary in order to ensure a majority but Starmer is in a far better position to do a deal with others if they fall short.