How Nylander’s most improved offensive skill should help Leafs in the playoffs

The omnipresent factor in all analysis of the Toronto Maple Leafs this season has been “What will this mean for playoffs?” How will Event X or the trend of Player Y affect their chances of winning a playoff series?

Over the first half of the season, we’ve looked at the goaltending, which has been vastly different than last year, Auston Matthews‘ shift to a more defensive style, evaluated their team toughness and more.

But the one that catches my eye on the offensive side of the puck is the Leafs’ not just willingness, but insistence on taking the puck across the front of the net in the high traffic areas. William Nylander in particular – who has seen an uptick in his offensive output – seems far more willing to put his leg out and shoulder down and take the puck across the front of the net. He looks fast and strong and it’s giving the opposition headaches.

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I’m not sure there’s an offensive principle I believe in more strongly than cutting in hard off the wing and taking the puck across the crease, for a number of reasons, which we can hit on in quick bullet form:

• Making the goalie move across the net opens them up, leaving holes between the legs and arms for imperfect shots.

• Making them lunge side-to-side brings them down and puts them at an immediate disadvantage for any follow up shot.

• It forces the defence to collapse and all systems/structure go out the window, setting up a positive offensive shift if the chance doesn’t result in an immediate goal.

• Randomness and bounces can go your way here. You love chaos in the opposing crease.

• It can be intimidating to play for a goalie, knowing rushes against may come barreling down to your little safe area in the crease.

• And finally, it’s not as scary as it used to be for puck carriers. Taking the puck across the net front used to mean certain death (or at least, attempted murder), whereas now defencemen are just as likely to aim for a stick check.

In the end it’s mayhem, the kind you like to create on offence.

The Leafs currently lead the NHL in “inner slot shots under pressure,” which to me shows a willingness to play in the dirty areas and try to create even when the opposition is already there. They’ve created 244 shots there at 5-on-5, which is 17 better than second place Carolina. It’s visible to me that there’s very little shying away from a part of the rink that’s coveted ice in the post-season.

Toronto has been a top team in this category in the past, but it’s worth focusing on because over the past two playoffs they’ve finished 11th, and 12th out of the 16 teams who’ve made the playoffs (on a per-game rate). It’s an area of their offensive play that dries up, and frankly, it’s because it gets harder to get there as teams make it even more physically difficult to cut through the crease. For Leafs fans, it should be encouraging to see how regularly their players seem to drive the crease this season as they build towards a better playoff push.

What’s happened in the past (the drying up of these looks) has been something I’ve focused on, having cut several videos of Leafs players with a chance to cut in, who instead preferred to take the puck behind the net and wait for a better opportunity that never came. When not challenging in, they’re doing the defence’s job for them, rarely forcing the “make a play” burden on to the opposition.

At no part in previous seasons do I remember the Leafs taking the puck across the net like this, even if their numbers have been good there. Just to take it back to Nylander, it feels like every rush chance he gets involves taking it across:

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Two seasons ago Nylander was 106th amongst forwards in inner slot shots under pressure (by per game rate). This year he’s 28th, and 25th by raw total, tied with names like Andrei Svechnikov and Elias Pettersson.

The funny thing is, Nylander is fourth on his own team in this department, as Auston Matthews and John Tavares are tied for fourth in the NHL in shots from the inner slot under pressure, and Michael Bunting fits in a few spots ahead of Nylander. (A good percentage of Bunting’s shots come in this situation, which I think has the potential to help the Leafs if he gets more comfortable in a second big playoff series.)

The Leafs’ offence may not be as high-flying as it’s looked in seasons past, but it shows up well in the grittier areas, including “screened shots” where they lead the league by a good margin, showing that willingness to get to and live in the opposition’s blue paint.

At this point the Tampa Bay Lightning are all but assured to be the first-round matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tampa is sixth-best in the NHL in limiting inner slot shots against, a measure of success that’s built on having a huge D-corps that tries to protect Andrei Vasilevskiy as best they can.

It’s going to be a battle that greatly influences the outcome of that war.

Against a great goalie and strong defence, will the Leafs still be willing to put themselves in harm’s way by taking the puck across the net? Or will they shrink from it, and hope for goals from distance? So far this season, the team’s overall play and that of its most improved player in this regard – Nylander – should be encouraging. They want to prioritize getting to that net front ice, and it’s leading to success.

But the answer to that question – will they feel the same against Tampa Bay in the playoffs? – may just hold the answer to who wins the Leafs’ next first-round matchup.

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