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Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for April 15, 2024

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Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay. Hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of April the 15th, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with the Dollar Index. We can see the Dollar Index is up 1.57% on the week. Using an actual solid anchor point like our weekly opening price, we can measure the last 5 days’ performance—again, 1.5%, still more predominantly bullish, I would argue here. But again, the market reacting to a lagging CPI number, one tenth hotter—not really a big deal. We’ll see how this plays out next week. But again, in most cases, Gold is your stronger instrument in the month of April. But the indicators here from Vantage Point are still firm. We can assess here that again, the market came right down to our T Cross Long, our predicted moving average, which is based on the correlation of 31 other markets.

Now, when we look at those actual markets, we can see the inner markets that drive with an actual percentage. We have yearly correlations, quarterly correlations, and monthly correlations. This is all based on the neural nets with the artificial intelligence measuring those correlated markets and how strong they are. We can actually break this down to the top 10 positively correlated and the top 10 inversely correlated. This again tells us other things we can trade, also not just the Dollar Index. But again, 1.57% is a very important number, particularly when we measure it against the equity markets.

S&P 500 Index

The equity markets were not up .70% last—this past week; they were down 1.68%. It’s very important that we’re using proper anchor points—the current yearly, monthly, quarterly, and weekly. And now starting a new quarter, negative. The equity markets are starting off negative.

DAX

We can assess here that the Dax 30, the European equity markets, even with the ECB talking about rate cuts here in June, their equity markets mirror the S&P 500, both being down about 1.2%, while the Dollar Index again is up 1.5%. So, that inverse correlation between the equity markets and the dollar is starting to show itself again. The dollar and Gold prices pushing equities down. But again, if we’re looking—if we’re moving our anchor points using a rolling performance model, we’re always going to struggle to see what the market actually did in the previous week.

There is nothing subjective about this; this is objective. We use the opening price on Monday and the closing price on Friday—that equals a negative 1.68%, not a positive point 70%. We have to make sure we understand that and we’re measuring it properly, so we don’t get caught in these bull and bear traps. The equities remain positive on the year—the current yearly opening price 4725.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Everything looks quite good there. But when we do a comparative analysis to the VIX, we can see that the VIX is up 2.33%, showing that volatility now. In this past week, you can see that we came all the way down on the VIX, hit the Vantage Point T cross long to the number, and then rallied right back up again, even stronger. So when we look at that VIX and we do a comparative analysis using the artificial intelligence and the correlated markets, we can see what really is driving that VIX.

There’s a high correlation to our Silver, to Platinum ProShares Ultra Silver, First Solar—all of these are driving factors of the actual VIX Index, which is an inverse correlation to the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, the Russell. All of these other markets—so when we use advanced artificial intelligence to measure, first of all, define the correlated market and, secondly, what is the positive and inverse correlation on a percentage basis—70% correlated, 90% correlated, this is what we look for. And then we use the predicted moving average as a retracement point. We don’t use waves, bands, channels. Again, a solid blue line with the correlation of the markets that I just showed you—31 positively and inversely correlated.

GOLD

Now, when we look at Gold prices this past week, a lot of rumors of a possible war between Iran and Israel this weekend—we’ll see if that comes to fruition. That briefly sent Gold prices very high on Friday. But again, a classic bull trap up here, where then it immediately gave all of those gains back by the end of the trading session. What we want to be very cautious of, guys, is that when we see a big move like this in a single day, very seldomly is there going to be a lot of follow-through on that. “The retail traders try to jump in at the end of the rally and then they get caught long, and then down it goes. So, Gold does remain bullish—we’re in uncharted territory up here—but our T Cross Long, 2275, that’s our retracement point here, guys. Now, if we click on our F8 in our software, we can see the long predicted, which is another tool. This is the F8, or the long-term crossover without the black line on the VP software, and you can see that Gold hugs that line every single day. When we look at that line, that line takes the correlation of a number of different markets that you can see with an actual percentage. It can be broken down to the yearly correlations, quarterly correlations, and even monthly correlation with an exact percentage. So, when we look at this, the IShare Silver Trust, on either the quarterly or the year, the monthly, there’s, in this particular month, there’s in quarter, there’s a 97.25% positive correlation between these. So, if you don’t want to trade Gold, I’ll respectfully submit you can trade Silver, or you can maybe look for something value-priced like the Gold Miners Bull at $15 a share. Numerous different options we have when using artificial intelligence combined with neural networks. So again, Gold does remain bullish, but we need to hold above that T Cross Long now.”

Bitcoin

Now, Bitcoin again, taking a little bit of a pullback here, closing down around $67,000 for the week—bearish on the week with that strong dollar but look for a recovery in the days ahead with Bitcoin. Pretty solid buying up here. And again, if we’re looking at longer-term forecasts, many people have different viewpoints on this, but I still remain very bullish on Bitcoin. It’s just a timing issue.

Gold is in its sweet spot in April, one of the strongest months for gold, next to December. So, once the gold strength backs off a bit, Bitcoin will likely start to recover. But right now, our TCross long is at 68670. We need to get back up above that particular level, or we could see a deeper pullback. But again, even investing in Bitcoin over the last 10 years, say $200 a month, and taking a long-term approach to this particular asset class, has clearly been a winner. Continuously trying to day trade this or sell into rallies has been very difficult, but buying on a dip has been the better play, and I do see a pretty bright future for Bitcoin.

Crude Oil

Now, when we look at Light Sweet Crude Oil, another main commodity, it’s still holding firm. The structural bias of this market, again the yearly opening price—current yearly opening price. No rolling performance models, guys. We don’t want to move the goalpost. We need to know how we’re doing in 2024, not in 2023. So, if I took a look at what we use seasonal patterns for—if I went back 365 days and measured that, then again, that would be a rolling performance. You can see that last year, oil took a tumble back into the $69 area and then rallied when it normally does at the beginning of the summer driving season. But in past years, usually around May, we start to see oil prices pick up. But for now, our T cross long, that’s coming in at 8414, we remain bullish while we’re above that. Our current monthly opening, again, we don’t want to go back 20, 30, 40, 50 random days. We want to set our anchor points at the beginning of April, the beginning of May, always at the start of the month, so we can measure what the performance is in the current month because that’s how we identify seasonal patterns using quantitative analysis, artificial intelligence, and neural networks. All of these things combine to tell us where we are. So in this case, our T cross long is above our monthly opening price, and we’re above our yearly opening price, so the quarterly opening price is a very important number for me in the second quarter, 8314. We want to hold above that to remain bullish on these particular oil contracts.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at some of our main Forex pairs here, the dollar is really putting some pressure on the Euro Currency. This has the highest inverse correlation to the Dollar Index. This particular pair would argue it’s about 99.29%—very, very strong inverse correlation, meaning the dollar up, the Euro down. So, the ECB certainly did nothing to help the Euro by suggesting they are gearing up for a rate cut in June. So that is likely to keep the Euro under pressure in the days and weeks ahead. But the Fed, I believe, will also start to talk about cuts as we get closer to May and June. I believe the CPI data is lagging, and it’s not worthy of putting all our eggs in one basket that inflation is hotter. We’ll have the retail sales out of the US, I believe, on Tuesday or Wednesday this coming week. That’ll shed more light into the economy. But for now, the Euro remains under pressure. We are getting a little out of fair value here, 16.7 on the predicted RSI, but that does not mean an overbought or oversold signal is something we ever want to trade off of. We want to trade off of momentum in the particular market. We can see with a split 60/40 split on the RSI that as soon as it broke the 40 level, the price accelerated, and there was follow-through here. Now, I believe we will retrace in our T cross long, 10794. Short survival as long as we’re below that particular level next week.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, the US-Swiss Franc, again, the Swiss Franc being one of the first banks to cut, that hurt them briefly. But as you can see, even with this significant dollar strength, this pair is stalling out at a newly formed, verified resistance high at 9148.

That’s the level we want to keep an eye on for next week. We are above our quarter, our current, our new quarterly opening price 9021. I would respectfully submit that we can set limit orders—sell limit orders—slightly below the 90 level, say 89.95. And when it breaks down below that, and we come into a period of dollar weakness, which I can almost guarantee you we will, in the months ahead, then once we trip below that quarter, the current quarterly opening, then that would tell us, okay, we’ve got shorts ready to go because ultimately the dollar is going to have periods of strength in 2024 and it’ll have significant periods of weakness. So, this is just yet another way to identify this. And the reason I’m saying that is the T cross long is at 9031, the quarterly opening at 9021—that’s where our key levels are, guys. So when it breaks down below those key levels, we’ve pre-identified them because again, this is an outlook, not a recap of something that happened in the past trading week. We’re looking forwards, not backwards. So again, a breakdown of the quarterly opening and the TCross long would tell me that we would have a very good short trade.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the British Pound, again taking a hit with the Euro this week on that dollar strength. But like all things, there was a more or less a perfect storm last week—we’ve had the hotter CPI, slightly hawkish Fed, and Iran and Israeli conflict which is a risk-off scenario. Sinks the equity markets boost the dollar, boost Gold. So if nothing really transpires there, then traders or investors will be quick to leave the US dollar and go back into other asset classes—Bitcoin, they could stay in Gold, they would go back into some of your stocks and equity markets. So those are things we’ll keep an eye on. But the further we move away from the Vantage Point predicted moving average at 12613, the more likely it is we’re going to retrace to it. It has absolutely nothing to do with overbought Fibonacci bands, any of these things. This is a natural mean revision theory. This particular mean revision theory is very powerful because the quarterly opening price and the T cross long are virtually at the same level, 12631. So yes, if we get back above 12631, we will absolutely have a long trade that could be as early as Wednesday or Thursday of this week.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, the Dollar Yen, again, no love here for the Yen whatsoever, and the Bank of Japan really has created a mess for themselves this time because there’s just nobody willing to buy the Yen. The interest rate differential may not change now between the US interest rates, the Fed rates, and the Bank of Japan rates even though they broke ranks and hiked in the Bank of Japan, but not meaningful enough to change anything. So the carry trade, at least for now, is still on. But in most cases, when Gold strengthens significantly, there are two other currencies that also tend to strengthen: the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. So be very cautious—it does look very bullish in this trade setup, but this reverse checkmark, the neural index strength, it shows green but inside the neural index it shows something very different, that it’s losing momentum in the last three trading days of last week. So if we put a draw a line right across the top of these three bars and we look at that neural index strength, it is picking up on that the inner markets that drive this pair, there could be a problem. So again, when we look at AI technology with neural networks, we can identify what the positive correlations are, but if the Yen sinks, then these inverse correlations will be the ones that will shine, they will start to move higher. So again, positive correlation of course is the Dollar Index, there’s an 83.8% positive correlation between the Dollar Yen and the Dollar Index. So if the Dollar Index sinks, Dollar Yen could go down with it.

We can see a number of other Forex pairs here also, but a point to look at here too is Cummin CPI 82.84% positively correlated to the Dollar Index as is Viper Energy Partners at 82, but at the top of that list, Singapore Yen Japanese Dollar 96.8%. So again, guys, when we look at a science-based type of trading with using intermarkets to gauge—well maybe I don’t want to trade the Dollar Yen, maybe I’ll go trade one of those other pairs, maybe I’ll trade a stock instead. That is the primary basis of intermarket technical analysis because again, standard technical analysis has not changed much in a hundred years; intermarket technical analysis using what I’ve shown you here today, intermarket correlations, positive inverse correlations—this is the science of what’s really behind the scenes where the institutional money is looking to buy and sell things.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

So, very powerful tools when we look at the US-Canadian pair again, in a risk-off scenario with Equity Market sinking, the correlate—there’s a very strong positive correlation between the equity markets and the Canadian dollar, not just oil. And as the equity markets sank, the Canadian dollar did also, and the US dollar strengthened, pushing this higher. I believe we will have a good short on this pair coming up in the not-too-distant future, but we need the equity markets recovering. Our retracement point here, quarterly opening price 13545. I can see us retracing back to that level in the next two or three weeks, but maybe sooner if everything between Iran and Israel and Palestine starts to calm down. The equity market, people move out of the VIX back into the equity markets; that would trigger shorts on here, guys, and most technical indicators will not pick that up—the intermarkets will drive this. So watch your oil prices, watch your S&P 500; if they are recovering and moving up, then US-Canada will be moving down. I could make the same argument here for the Aussie and the New Zealand.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the Aussie is surprisingly, every time it tries to recover towards this 6650 area, it immediately something drives it lower. But structurally speaking, we’re below the yearly opening price; our new quarterly opening price 6520, critical area, guys. We have to get above this level and stay above this level. When we do that, we’re going to have a good long trade back up to the 68 level, but we’re just not there yet. We need things to settle down in the Middle East a little bit, gold prices in the dollar calming down a little bit; that’s likely towards the end of April.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

So again, keep an eye out for potential longs, and the New Zealand is no different. You can see structurally it’s not very sound here at all, but we do have a verified support low, and that’s coming in at 5940. So watch this level; we basically closed on that on Friday, 5937. So be careful of a bear trap here, is what I would suggest because if things settle and the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow Jones, Nikkei, DAX 30—if they start all rebounding higher, then the Aussie, the New Zealand, and the CAD will follow that rebound very quickly. So expect another choppy week, but with this choppiness, there is opportunity. So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of April the 15th, 2024.



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Israel-Iran Tensions LIVE Updates: Iran Says Launched Drones, Missiles At Israel

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Israel-Iran LIVE: Israeli Channel 12 said missiles Iran had launched would likely strike sooner.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday, an attack that may trigger a major escalation between the regional archenemies, with the U.S. pledging to back Israel.

Israel’s military said the drones, which Iraqi security sources said were seen flying over the country from Iran, would take hours to reach their targets.

Israeli Channel 12 said missiles Iran had launched would likely strike sooner but that some missiles and drones had been shot down over Syria or Jordan.

Here are the LIVE updates on Israel-Iran Tensions:

Get NDTV UpdatesTurn on notifications to receive alerts as this story develops.

US Says Shot Down Iranian Drone Headed To Israel

The U.S. military has shot down Iranian drone aircraft headed toward Israel on Saturday, three U.S. officials said, without disclosing how many drones were shot down or the precise locations.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel in an attack that may trigger a major escalation between the regional archenemies.

Iran Warns US To “Stay Away” From Conflict With Israel

Iran warned the United States Sunday to “stay away” from its conflict with Israel after Tehran launched a drone and missile attack in retaliation for a deadly strike on its Damascus consulate.

“Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus,” Iran’s Permanent United Nations mission said on X. 

“Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe,” it said. “It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the US MUST STAY AWAY!”

“Matter Concluded”: Iran After It Launches Drone, Missile Strikes At Israel

Yemen Rebels Launch Drones At Israel In Coordination With Iran: Security Agency

Yemen’s Huthi rebels launched multiple drones at Israel in coordination with Iran, security firm Ambrey said late Saturday, adding that the projectiles were likely timed to reach Israel simultaneously. 

“Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVS) were reportedly launched by the Huthis toward Israel. The UAVs were launched in coordination with Iran,” the company said. “Israeli ports are assessed to be potential targets”, it added, and warned of “collateral damage” to shipping.

France Foreign Minister Condemns Iran Strikes On Israel As Threat To Stability

France’s Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne on Saturday condemned Iran’s drone strikes on Israel as a “new level” in the threat to security.

“France condemns with the greatest firmness the attack launched by Iran against Israel,” he said on the platform X.

“In deciding to take this unprecedented action, Iran has reached a new level of destabilisation and is risking a military escalation,” he added, reiterating France’s commitment to Israel’s security.

Netanyahu Holds War Cabinet Meet As Iran Launches Drone Strikes At Israel

Iran Launched More Than 100 Drones: Israel

Iran launched more than 100 drones towards Israel, and more can be expected, an Israeli army official said Sunday.

“This evening we’ve identified more than 100 UAV drones launched towards Israel from Iran,” the official said, adding: “We expect the drones to be here in the following hours and we might see some more waves of drones as time progresses.”

“Operating At Full Force To Defend State”: Israel As Iran Launches Drone Strikes

Sirens Sounded In Israel Kibbutz Near Lebanon Border: Army

The Israeli army said it sounded sirens in a kibbutz near the Lebanon border early Sunday, after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel.

“Sirens sounded in Kibbutz Snir, northern Israel,” the army said in a statement.

Jordan, Iraq Close Airspace As Iran Launches Drone Strikes On Israel

Shortly before Iran launched drones towards Israel in response to its air strike on the latter’s embassy in Syria, Jordan temporarily closed its airspace for all incoming, departing and transit aircraft, The Times of Israel reported, citing state-owned Al Mamlaka news on Saturday.

Two flights from the Emirati airline Fly Dubai turned back towards the United Arab Emirates after taking off en route for Israel, ostensibly due to concerns over an Iranian threat or the decision by Jordan to close its airspace, The Times of Israel reported, citing local media outlet Channel 12.

Lebanon Closes Airspace As Iran Strikes Israel

Lebanon closed its airspace and suspended air traffic late Saturday, after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel, the transport minister said.

“Lebanese airspace has been closed to all aircraft… temporarily and as a precaution”, Ali Hamie posted on X, adding that the measure would be in effect from 2200 GMT on Saturday until 0400 GMT on Sunday.

Rishi Sunak Condemns “Reckless’ Iran Strikes On Israel

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemned as “reckless” late Saturday Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel, adding that Britain would “continue to stand up for Israel’s security”.

“Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed,” Sunak said in a statement.

Netanyahu Holds Israel War Cabinet Meeting: Prime Minister’s Office

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet is meeting in Tel Aviv, his office said Sunday, after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel.

“Netanyahu is convening the War Management Cabinet at this time, in Kirya in Tel Aviv,” the prime minister’s office said.

Iran Strikes “Severe And Dangerous Escalation”: Israel

The Iranian drone attack under way against Israel marks a “severe and dangerous escalation,” Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said Sunday.

“We are closely monitoring Iranian killer drones that are en route to Israel sent by Iran. This is a severe and dangerous escalation,” Rear Admiral Hagari said.



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Singapore REITs Monthly Update (April 7th, 2024) – My Stocks Investing

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FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 653.16 to 666.29 (2.01%) compared to last month’s update. The REIT index is now trading in a sideways, with the 50D SMA (666) being the immediate resistance.

  • Short-term direction: Sideways
  • Medium-term direction: Down
  • Long-term direction: Down
  • Immediate Support at 20D SMA
  • Immediate Resistance at 50D SMA

FTSE REIT Index Chart

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on March 3rd, 2024.

 

The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
  • All REITs have the latest Q4 2023 update values.
  • I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

 

 

What does each Column mean?

  • FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
  • Yield (ttm): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of April 5th, 2024.
  • Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
  • Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
  • Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

  • Price/NAV increased to 0.80 (Weighted Average: 0.80)
    • Increased from 0.79 in March 2024.
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is undervalued now.
    • Price/NAV increased due to NAV trending downwards from the latest Q4 2023 update.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • EC World REIT 2.33
      ParkwayLife REIT 1.50
      Keppel DC REIT 1.29
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 1.26
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 1.25
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 1.06
    • Only 6 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
    • EC World REIT has its NAV/Unit dropped from 0.75 to 0.12 as of the latest update. This caused its Price/NAV to skyrocket to 2.33. Also it is currently suspended.
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Prime US REIT 0.21
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 0.22
      Manulife US REIT 0.22
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 0.23
      ARA Hospitality Trust 0.39
      OUE REIT 0.46

 

Distribution Yields Overview

  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 7.75%. (Weighted Average remained at 6.32%)  
    • Decreased from 7.96% in March 2024. (Weighted Average was 6.32%)
    • 18 of 40 Singapore REITs have ttm distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
    • 8 REITs have a ttm yield of over 10%!
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • Prime US REIT 21.17
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 16.45
      Elite Commercial REIT 13.68
      Daiwa House Logistics Trust 13.38
      ARA Hospitality Trust 12.04
      United Hampshire REIT 10.76
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. This has caused Prime US REIT’s and Keppel Pacific Oak REIT’s ttm yields to be over 25%, despite the distribution cuts/halts.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
    • A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.
  • Yield Spread tightened to 4.38%. (Weighted Average remained almost the same at 3.90%)     
    • Tightened from 4.69% in March 2024. (Weighted Average was 3.91%)

 

Gearing Ratios Overview

  • Gearing Ratio remained at 38.76%. (Weighted Average: 37.90%)    
    • Remained 38.76% of March 2024. (Weighted Average: 37.90%)  
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly.
    • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • EC World REIT 58.3
      Manulife US REIT 58.3
      Prime US REIT 48.4
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 44.3
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 43.2
      Suntec REIT 42.3
    • MUST and EC World REIT’s gearing ratio has exceeded MAS’s gearing limit of 50%. However the aggregate leverage limit is not considered to be breached if exceeding the limit is due to circumstances beyond the control of the REIT Manager.

Market Capitalisation Overview

  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation increased by 1.98% to S$89.22 Billion.
    • Decreased from S$87.49 Billion in March 2024.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust 13100.50
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 12088.80
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 7405.30
      Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust 7035.00
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 6565.60
      Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 3964.40
    • There are no change in the rankings since November 2022.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 100.10
      Elite Commercial REIT 120.74
      Manulife US REIT 136.16
      Prime US REIT 152.32
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 158.08
      ARA Hospitality Trust 164.79

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, scroll down for more information on the REITs courses.

 

Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

 

 

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 3.22% (increased from 3.11%)
  • US 10 Year: 4.40% (increased from 4.18%)

The past month was finally a slightly bullish month for S-REITs. This is despite the slight increase in SG/US 10 Years Gov Bond Yields. Fundamentally, the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.80) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 7.75%! (Weighted average yield of 6.32%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 3.22% as of April 7th 2024) remained almost the same from 3.91% to 3.90%. Based on the CME group’s interest rate futures, there will be a high possibility of rate cut of between 100-150 bps by end of 2024.

 

 

Join us for an enlightening webinar where we delve into the intricate world of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Singapore against the backdrop of interest rate movements. Kenny Loh, a Singapore REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor, will meticulously analyse current market trends and offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead for S-REITs in 2024.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Impact of Interest Rate Movements on Singapore REITs Performance
  • Navigating Interest Rate Fluctuations
  • Identifying Emerging Risks and Seizing Opportunities in REITs Sector
  • Actionable Insights for Portfolio Positioning
  • Strategic Success Amidst Interest Rate Scenarios

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

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How B-Stock Builds Buyer Demand to Drive Success for Its Sellers

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Each year, B-Stock facilitates the movement of billions of dollars worth of returned and overstock inventory via the world’s largest B2B recommerce marketplace. This means, of course, that we sit in the middle of a two-sided network madue up of both sellers and buyers around the globe.

As a marketplace facilitator, B-Stock is only successful when we deliver results for everyone involved. What keeps buyers coming back is easy, consistent access to the bulk inventory they need, high listing accuracy, and confidence in the quality of the goods. On the other side, our sellers trust us to deliver multiple benefits:

That last point will be the focus of this piece. Establishing a thriving and ever-growing worldwide buyer base is no easy task. It’s an ongoing effort that’s been a central to our mission for nearly twenty years now, and it’s undoubtedly one of our proudest achievements. But how exactly do we keep this up? How does B-Stock reach its buyers? How do we keep them informed and engaged? How do we advise our sellers to take advantage of all of this demand with their supply? Read on to find out.

About Our Buyers

One of the first questions that businesses ask as they explore B-Stock is “Who will be purchasing our goods?” It’s a fair question, as buyers are the lifeblood of any marketplace. 

Entrepreneurs vs Power Buyers

Although our buyers vary enormously in what kind of goods they’re looking to purchase, B-Stock generally classifies each buyer into one of two main groups, Entrepreneurs and “Power Buyers.” Entrepreneurs typically purchase less than $50,000 in gross merchandise value (GMV) in a rolling 12-month period. They’re often small business owners or perhaps part-time enthusiasts running a side hustle. Either way, their revenue is typically below $100,000 per year.

Our Power Buyers, on the other hand, are those that purchase more than $50,000 in GMV in a given 12-month span. They represent larger operations, including medium- to enterprise-sized businesses that employ multiple full-time workers. Annual revenue for this group is typically above $100,000 annually, with one in ten of them bringing in over $1 million of revenue per year. Aside from total GMV, these Power Buyers are also distinct in the volume of lots they buy and how frequently they bid on the B-Stock marketplace. Even so, both groups are important.

What Does Each Buyer Type Bring to the Table?

Although Power Puyers are just 16% of our buyer base, they account for 66% of bids and 71% of all orders placed on the B-Stock platform. Their average order value is also four times that of Entrepreneurs’ orders, making them critical to any storefront’s success. They are the most loyal, consistent, and important buyers and we strive to give them the best experience possible. 

So what do Entrepreneurs bring? These smaller buyers matter too, as they represent and sustain a high level of demand throughout our marketplace and create auction competition that drives up recovery rates and extracts the highest willingness to pay from the eventual winner. They also bid on and purchase smaller lots that might not make sense for a Power Buyer that requires larger volumes. Critically, many of our Entrepreneurs have the potential to become  Power Buyers if their initial experiences are good.

Purchasing Behaviors of Our Buyer Groups

While there are far fewer of them, Power Buyers place the majority of the total amount of bids and they lead the way on orders and average order value. This is important to note because it’s not just how much these two groups purchase on B-Stock that differs, but the kinds of lots they look for. Our data shows that 90% of Entrepreneurs’ purchases are Less-than-truckload (LTL) auctions, while Power Buyers purchase Truckload-sized lots at more than three times that rate.

The key takeaway here is that Power Buyers are running larger operations of looking for far more inventory than Entrepreneurs are when placing their orders. They’re looking for truckloads and ways to find inventory on a consistent basis and are responsible for fewer individual transactions, impacting the selling methods and the strategies that B-Stock’s expert Account Managers will recommend when we consider the inventory to be sold and how to maximize recovery. 

The Reach of Our Network

Dots on the maps below show the distribution of B-Stock’s buyers and just how vast our network is, particularly within the United States and Europe. There’s a high likelihood of having appropriate buyers nearby, no matter the category, quantity, or condition of the goods.  Of course we can also give more granular insights into the buyer distribution within specific inventory categories or regions.

How B-Stock Drives Buyer Demand

Now that we’ve covered the buyer groups, let’s take a look at what exactly B-Stock does to drive buyer demand towards seller’s storefronts. 

The Magic of Marketing

B-Stock has a dedicated, full-time marketing team that focuses on continuously driving buyer demand across our marketplace as a whole and ensuring that relevant buyers are directed to new storefronts. The marketing team partners with B-Stock’s sellers and their Account Managers to ensure that we’re bringing in the right crowd for them.

There are three main phases to marketing for a new seller after they sign with B-Stock: 

  1. Pre-launch Phase
    B-Stock hits the ground running by building awareness for a seller well before their first listing goes live. This stage includes designing logos and branded assets for an upcoming storefront, early email communications to potential buyers, buyer-minded search engine optimization (SEO) of each storefront, and teaser ad campaigns.
  2. Storefront Launch
    During the storefront launch phase, we put our efforts toward generating bidding and buying activity for listed inventory. This includes optimizing lotting and listing practices, more detailed and targeted email communications, banners displayed on our own web pages, and further SEO.
  3. Post Launch and Beyond
    The post-launch phase is ongoing and prioritizes buyer satisfaction and the long-term success of each storefront. Expect this to include assistance with expanding the inventory offered and regions served. Further, we’ll help educate buyers on the products being sold and collect and analyze buyer feedback to ensure buyer retention.

Our Marketing Funnel & Tactics

Our buyer marketing funnel comprises four main stages: Awareness & Discovery, Consideration, Conversion, and Loyalty & Retention. 

marketing tactics funnel

  1. Awareness & Discovery
    Awareness & Discovery is all about building familiarity with B-Stock and staying at the front of potential buyer’s minds. We deploy tactics to find buyers where they live, so to speak. We run digital ads across the internet and invest in search engine marketing (SEM) to ensure every storefront appears near the top of the results page for relevant queries. Content quality is also key to ranking well on Google, so we apply SEO best practices—like using proper keywords, title tags, and meta descriptions—across our own website and on seller storefronts. Additionally, we’ve search optimized the assets on the B-Stock Buyer Blog and Buyer Resource Center which is filled with articles and other resources. 
  2. Consideration
    At this stage, buyers are trying to get to know us a bit more. They want to discover what kinds of goods are available on B-Stock, learn what it’s like to use the platform on a daily basis, and understand key differentiators that set us apart from competitors. Further, we publish buyer information pages, case studies, reseller spotlights, nurture emails, and notifications to help educate and inform buyers who are still considering us a solution.
  3. Conversion
    The goal of the conversion stage is to encourage buyers to bid, win, and pay. To this end, we showcase certain listings and new storefronts on bstock.com, across our marketplace pages, on the All Auctions page, and in outbound communications to bring our sellers and their inventory to the fore. 

    We can also deploy buyer incentives in partnership with our sellers to encourage first-time buyer activity. For example, we might place banners around our web pages that advertise a marketplace credit in exchange for making a first purchase on a newly launched storefront. Another conversion tactic we employ to continually engage buyers is the nurture email campaign. The content of these emails often includes our value propositions or highlights select seller storefronts. On-page notifications ensure key messages and promotions are visible to those browsing bstock.com, and they can be either targeted at specific buyers or address a broad audience. For our largest buying opportunities and contracts, we have a dedicated buyer growth team that contacts ideal buyers directly.

  4. Loyalty & Retention
    The final stage of the funnel is all about following up and nurturing connections with buyers after they purchase. Of course, positive interactions and a seamless buying experience both contribute to continued buyer satisfaction. This step is key to long-term recommerce success because retaining buyers will always be cheaper and easier than locating and activating new ones. 

    We send out daily auction emails to notify buyers when auctions of interest are listed and when they’re closing soon. We regularly offer incentives, conduct surveys, feature promotional banners, and constantly test and evaluate how these tactics perform. Finally, B-Stock runs the all-important seasonal and category campaigns. These are cross-channel campaigns that use consistent messaging and design across multiple marketing assets, helping amplify messaging while building credibility and familiarity.

Best Practices for Reselling

In the world of B2B recommerce, it is important to be consistent. We encourage our partners to do that through ongoing listings with minimal downtime between auctions. That way buyers can count on getting the inventory they need without scouring other less reputable sources.

Below is an example of a successful seller that followed our best practices. This seller started off on our platform with around 80 auctions per quarter and gradually ramped up. In Q7 of the partnership—when this seller began working hand-in-hand with B-Stock—they saw a substantial jump in auctions and bidders.

 

performance improvement when using best practices

Understand the Factors That Impact Buyer Demand

Success isn’t all about ads, emails, and offers. The product has to stand on its own, and as one might expect, several variables affect demand and, ultimately, recovery rate. Below is a list of the most prominent factors and a visual representation of the average recovery rate of our main inventory categories.

  • Category
    Furniture, apparel and consumer electronics, for example, (not to mention their respective subcategories) all tend to return very distinct results
  • Condition
    Is the product new or is it used? Damaged? For Parts? Each of these will its own set of implications on selling tactics and recovery rate
  • Inventory type
    Think of this as the reasons the items are being sold. Consider whether the goods are overstock, leftover seasonal items, customer returns, etc.
  • Brand
    It may seem obvious, but it can’t be stressed enough that brand matters, with some premium labels doing quite well on the secondary market 
  • Shipping type
    Whether a given lot is a truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), or parcel is important because of buyers’ different storage and handling capacities
  • Original retail value
    Perhaps the most unsurprising factor, MSRP and retail value play a key role in determining an item’s secondary market value

category performance

If a seller carefully weighs and addresses these variables with the appropriate selling tactics once their storefront is up and running, all of B-Stock’s prior buyer demand efforts will compound in their favor. Sellers will have access to an Account Manager who can give deeper insight into these areas as needed.

Picking the Right Tool for the Job

To ensure that B-Stock can optimize our approach to buyer demand generation, we need to understand a seller’s definition of success. It’s even possible that objectives will shift as a seller’s recommerce program develops or as their core business or industry changes over time. Whether the goal is recovery, velocity or a blend of the two, we offer multiple reselling solutions to match.

sales models

Reimagine Demand Generation & Recovery Optimization as an Ongoing Process

Once a seller signs on with B-Stock, our experts will be at their side through a proven cyclical process that will refine any recommerce program over time.

demand and recovery generation cycle

Before launching a storefront, we want to understand ther seller’s short and long-term objectives for recovery, velocity, or a combination of the two. Next, we will learn about the inventory based on manifests that they provide and recommend the ideal balance of our auction-based Spot Sales, Contract Sales, or Direct Sales models. At this stage, B-Stock can also forecast a prospective seller’s recovery rate.

 

Following the first round of sales, B-Stock will provide granular summaries of initial performance to compare recovery against the current go-to-market allocation and determine if any immediate changes in strategy are necessary. The last aspect of the process—and, really, an ongoing one—is regular, thorough assessment of performance versus goals, changes in market pricing, and shifts in supply and demand. It is these shifts in supply and demand that determine which reselling solution our experts recommend.

supply and demand graphic

If demand for certain goods is relatively high or supply is relatively low, our list-and-bid Spot Sales model will generate the highest recovery. On the other hand, if demand is relatively low or supply is high, contract sales or direct sales tend to be the best way to maximize recovery or increase inventory velocity. The figure below demonstrates the results that one of our sellers was able to achieve through a combination of spot auctions and contract-based sales.

seller uses contract sales to improve performance

After a period of high recovery through auctions alone, this seller—a large US-based retailer—experienced a sudden influx of surplus to be sold on the secondary market. With supply higher than ever, the recovery rate slipped significantly. Since there was at least one buyer interested in consistently taking on this inventory for a prenegotiated price, B-Stock quickly brokered a fixed-term deal between the buyer and seller. After adding this contract sales component to their program, the seller’s recovery rates stabilized in just a few weeks.

Why Our Seller Partners Love B-Stock

Now that you know how far we go to keep buyer demand high, you might be wondering what else there is to our offering.

Some the world’s top consumer goods brands sell on B-Stock in order to keep their warehouses clear and unlock appreciable cash value. Here’s why.

  • Higher Recovery Rates at Scale
    B-Stock drives higher, more predictable pricing through broad buyer reach and increased competition. The sheer number of buyers in our network—many of whom exercise considerable purchasing power—means that a seller can move out virtually any goods in any quantity
  • Streamlining & Automating OperationsOur platform is set up to automate many of the processes involved with managing multiple traditional buyers—think wholesalers and brokers—that are typically handled through phone calls, emails, or spreadsheets.
  • Recommerce Expertise & Management
    All of B-Stock’s major sellers take advantage of our experience and expertise in the recommerce space. A dedicated account manager leads reselling strategy and operations for each partner, ensuring their resale program is aligned with their desired business outcomes.
  • Speed & Flexibilty
    The end result of all of these benefits is unmatched cycles times, achieved through data analysis, smart platform features, and key partnerships that eliminate the many days needed for price determination and reduce excessive handling by third-parties—always a risk when moving goods at scale.

If the need for stronger buyer demand or any of these other benefits aligns with your organization’s pain points, we’d be more than happy to discuss possible solutions to meet your needs.

Reach out and schedule a demo today

 

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UltraTech Cement’s Ambitious Expansion Plan Worth the Premium Valuations?

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The economy’s primary driver today is the infrastructure sector’s tremendous expansion. By 2027, the infrastructure industry is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%, driven by a number of strategic policy initiatives implemented by the Indian government.

The government’s priority for this industry is seen in the allocation of investments in the capital expenditure outlay for 2024–2025, which was ₹11 lakhs crores in the most recent Interim Budget.

It is obvious that India’s ambition of having a US$ 5 trillion GDP is based on the development of a strong infrastructure. The cement industry saw a rise in demand as a direct result of the increase in infrastructure spending, necessitating capacity expansion.

This cement company that we are going to explore has started an ambitious capacity expansion push, putting it in a strong position to capitalise on the next stage of economic growth. Within a year, Ultratech Cement has provided a 35 percent return. To find out where the firm is headed, let’s take a closer look at it.

The cement player’s revenue growth slowed down in the December quarter as a result of flat realisations and moderate volume growth. The revenue increased at a moderate pace of 8% year over year, but EBITDA and PAT saw healthy increases of 39% and 68%, respectively, due to the reduction in operating costs (fuel and power).

Business Segments Of UltraTech Cement

The main cement business owned by the Aditya Birla Group is UltraTech Cement Ltd. UltraTech, a $5.9 billion building solutions giant, is India’s leading producer of ready-mix concrete (RMC), white cement and grey cement.

With China excluded, it is the third-largest producer of cement worldwide. With a single nation’s capacity to produce 130 MTPA of cement, UltraTech is the only cement firm in the world (apart from China). The corporation operates in India, Sri Lanka, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.

UltraTech can produce 136 million tonnes of grey cement annually (MTPA) on a consolidated basis. The company has a market reach of more than 80% in India and a network of more than 1,20,000 channel partners nationwide.

UltraTech markets its products in the white cement industry under the Birla White brand. With a current capacity of two MTPA, it has three Wall Care putty machines and one White Cement plant. UltraTech is the biggest concrete maker in India, with 231 Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) units in 109 cities.

Additionally, it offers a wide variety of specialized concrete to satisfy the particular requirements of unique clients. The company’s Building Products division is a center for innovation, providing a range of products with cutting-edge engineering to meet the needs of modern buildings.

Financials Of UltraTech Cement

In the fiscal year 2023, Ultratech Cement saw a substantial increase in revenue, surging by 21% to reach ₹63,239 crore as opposed to ₹52,598 crore in FY2022. Analyzing a span of four years, encompassing FY2020 to FY2023, the company displayed a  robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14% in revenue.

On the other hand, there was a noteworthy decrease in net profit, experiencing a 34% decrease from ₹7,714.34 crore in FY2022 to ₹5,073.4 crore in FY2023. The decrease in net profit  was attributable to higher input costs, partly offset by volume growth and better sales realisations.

The cost of raw materials increased due to a rise in additive and fly ash prices, going from ₹531/t to ₹600/t. The primary cause of the 36% increase in overall energy costs—from ₹1,240/t to ₹1,692/t—was rising fuel prices. The cost of logistics also went up slightly from ₹1,214/t to ₹1,248/t as a result of higher diesel prices and fees applied to railway freight during business hours.

In FY23, Ultratech Cement maintained favourable financial metrics with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 9.69% and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 12.77%.

Future Plans Of UltraTech Cement

Diversified Revenue Streams

Since cement is a commodity, its cost is highly variable, with freight and transportation expenses being one of the main expenses. The company’s primary target geographic areas are often determined by the location of the plant.

UltraTech operates eight Bulk Packaging Terminals – Sea + Rail (seven in India and one overseas), one White Cement & Three Putty Unit, five Jetties throughout India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sri Lanka, and 24 Integrated Units (23 in India and one overseas). 

As of September 30, 2023, the firm operated in all areas, with the biggest capacity share in the West (30.7 MTPA), followed by Central India (28.4 MTPA), East (26.4 MTPA), North (26.5 MTPA), and South India (20.5 MTPA). No region accounted for more than 25% of the overall capacity share.

Compared to other regions, South India has a structural overcapacity; however, with the anticipated acquisition of KIL’s cement facilities, this presence is anticipated to rise.

Upcoming Capacity Expansion

As part of its Phase II and III capacity development initiatives, the company is adding capacity to sustain its market position in each geography. When taking into account phase II and III growth plants, major capabilities are emerging in East and South India, with northern, central, and Western India following suit.

With a total capacity of 133 Mtpa right now, the company has plans to increase this to 157.4 Mtpa by FY25. Under Phase III expansion, the company aims to increase its total capacity to 179.3 Mtpa by FY27.

This year, Ultratech Cement’s capex cash flow is expected to exceed its initial plans, with an estimated expenditure of around ₹ 9,000 crores. Similarly, next year, the company anticipates its capex cash flows to be around the same amount. Ultratech Cement has taken some opportunistic bets on the purchase of coal and pet coke, leading to a slight extension in its working capital.

Conclusion

So, when looking at the valuations, the company is expensive as compared to its peers in the industry as is evident from the Price-to-earnings and Price to book value ratio of 43.54 and 5.14 respectively. It also holds a dividend yield of 0.39 percent.

The company’s expansion plans and diversified geographic presence position it well to capitalize on India’s infrastructure growth. However, the high valuations raise concerns about the stock’s upside potential in the near term. Investors need to evaluate if the premium valuations are justified by UltraTech’s competitive advantages and growth prospects.

What do you think about UltraTech Cement’s future prospects? Does the stock seem attractive at current valuations, or would you recommend waiting for a better entry point?

Written by Nalin Suriya 

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RRG Indicates That non-Mega Cap Technology Stocks Are Improving

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KEY

TAKEAWAYS

  • The Energy Sector Remains On a Very Strong Rotational Path
  • Completed Top Formation In Healthcare Opens Up Significant Downside Risk
  • Smaller Technology Stocks Are Taking Over From Mega-Cap Names

A Sector Rotation Summary

A quick assessment of current sector rotation on the weekly Relative Rotation Graph:

XLB: Still on a strong trajectory inside the improving quadrant and heading for leading. The upward break of overhead resistance on the price chart seems to be stalling at the moment, which could cause its relative strength compared to the S&P 500 to slow down. Overall, the trend, both in terms of price and relative, is still up.

XLC: Continues to lose relative strength and momentum inside the weakening quadrant and rotates toward lagging at a negative RRG-Heading. On the price chart, XLC is battling resistance, which causes its relative performance to slow down.

XLE: Is at the strongest rotation in this universe. Well inside the improving quadrant at the highest RS-Momentum reading and powered by the longest tail in the universe. The upward break in the price chart is holding up well, and the sector can even handle a small setback towards the former resistance area (just below ~95) without harming its uptrend.

XLF: Was on its way back to the leading quadrant after curling back up inside weakening, but this week’s dip is causing the tail to deviate from that path. This means we must watch this sector closely going into the close of this week and the beginning of next week to see if this is a temporary hiccup or a real change of direction. The nasty dip on the price chart pushes XLF back below its former resistance levels, which is usually not a strong sign. Caution!!

XLI: This is the only sector inside the leading quadrant at the moment, traveling at a strong RRG-Heading, taking the sector higher on both axes. The rally in the price chart is fully intact but seems to stall at current levels for three to four weeks. Plenty of room on the chart for a corrective move in this sector without damaging the uptrend.

XLK: The slow performance, primarily sideways, of the sector since the end of January has caused relative strength to flatten and for the sector to roll over and rotate into the weakening quadrant on the RRG. The jump today (Thursday, 4/11) caused an uptick in relative strength, but much more is needed to bring this sector back to the forefront.

XLP: Did not make it all the way up to horizontal resistance around 77.50 but set a lower high after a nasty reversal last week. The raw RS-Line continues steadily lower, causing the tail on the RRG to remain short and on the left-hand side of the graph, indicating a steady relative downtrend.

XLRE: After a rally at the end of last year, XLRE ended up in a sideways pattern that could turn out to be a double top after that rally. Such a top will be confirmed on a break below 37, which is the lowest low that was set in the week starting 2/12. When that happens, a decline all the way back to the late 2023 low becomes possible. The relative trend reversed back down after a very brief stint through the leading quadrant at the end of January.

XLU: Just moved into the improving quadrant from lagging but remains at a very low RS-Ratio level. The raw RS-Line continues to show a steady downtrend, making it hard for the tail to make it all the way to the leading quadrant. Price managed to break above a falling resistance line but shortly thereafter stalled in the area of Sept-23, Dec-23, and Jan-24 highs. Pressure remains in both price and relative terms.

XLV: After a short rotation through the improving quadrant that lasted roughly two months, XLV has now returned to the lagging quadrant and is pushing deeper into it on a negative RRG-Heading. On the price chart, XLV completed a (double) top formation and broke back below its former overhead resistance level, opening significant downside risk.

XLY: Is hesitating in a sideways pattern since mid-February, but still in a very shallow, uptrend. Relative strength continued to decline but is now nearing its late 2022 relative low, and the RRG-Lines are showing early signs of improvement.

Cap-weighted vs Equal-weighted

The RRG above shows the relative rotation of the relationships between the cap-weighted sector ETFs and their equal-weighted counterparts.

The more interesting information is coming from the tails that are far away from the benchmark. In this case, these are the Communication services sector, which is rolling over inside the leading quadrant, and Consumer Discretionary, which has just turned up inside the lagging quadrant.

This indicates that the large(er) cap communication services stocks are now starting to underperform the lower-tier market capitalizations. The opposite is true for Consumer Discretionary, where the opposite is happening, and larger market cap stocks are taking over from lower tier market caps.

A similar observation can be made for the Technology sector which is heading straight into the lagging quadrant, which suggests that large-cap tech is giving way to smaller names.

This information will be helpful when looking at RRGs for individual stocks inside the sectors.

#StayAlert: –Julius

Julius de Kempenaer
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Creator, Relative Rotation Graphs
Founder, RRG Research
Host of: Sector Spotlight

Please find my handles for social media channels under the Bio below.

Feedback, comments or questions are welcome at [email protected]. I cannot promise to respond to each and every message, but I will certainly read them and, where reasonably possible, use the feedback and comments or answer questions.

To discuss RRG with me on S.C.A.N., tag me using the handle Julius_RRG.

RRG, Relative Rotation Graphs, JdK RS-Ratio, and JdK RS-Momentum are registered trademarks of RRG Research.

Julius de Kempenaer

About the author:
Julius de Kempenaer is the creator of Relative Rotation Graphs™. This unique method to visualize relative strength within a universe of securities was first launched on Bloomberg professional services terminals in January of 2011 and was released on StockCharts.com in July of 2014.

After graduating from the Dutch Royal Military Academy, Julius served in the Dutch Air Force in multiple officer ranks. He retired from the military as a captain in 1990 to enter the financial industry as a portfolio manager for Equity & Law (now part of AXA Investment Managers).
Learn More

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Do Tweezer Top & Bottom Candle Patterns Work? I Test It!

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Tweezer top and bottom candle patterns theoretically signal short-term price trend reversals. Our 593 years of research data covering 1,892 test trades show this candlestick pattern to be unpredictable, unprofitable, and worth avoiding for traders.

Key Takeaways

  • Tweezer patterns, part of candlestick trading strategies, indicate potential trend reversals.
  • Correct identification of tweezer tops is easy using pattern recognition.
  • Our research suggests tweezer patterns are not predictive or reliable and should be avoided in trading.

The tweezer top is identified by a pair of candlesticks with matching high points in an uptrend, signaling a possible bearish reversal. Conversely, the tweezer bottom, characterized by candlesticks with matching low points in a downtrend, can indicate a bullish reversal.

How to Identify and Trade Tweezer Top and Tweezer Bottom Candle Patterns

Understanding Candlestick Patterns

Candlestick patterns in technical analysis provide visual insight into market psychology and potential price movements. A single candlestick represents four key price points: the open, close, high, and low, within a specific timeframe on a chart.

  • Bullish Candle: This occurs when the close is higher than the open, indicating buying pressure. It is typically represented with a white or green body.
  • Bearish Candle: Conversely, when the close is lower than the open, it reflects selling pressure, shown by a black or red body.

Candlestick Patterns can be broadly classified into two categories:

  • Reversal Patterns: These suggest a change in trend direction. Examples include the Tweezer Top and Bottom patterns. They occur after a consistent trend, signaling a potential weakening. Tweezer Tops are bearish reversal patterns. Tweezer Bottoms are bullish.
  • Continuation Patterns: These indicate that the current trend may persist.

Tweezer Top Patterns

Traders use tweezer top patterns to identify potential bearish reversals in the market. They indicate a shift in market sentiment where buyers can no longer push prices higher.

Identification of Tweezer Tops

A tweezer top formation consists of two consecutive candlesticks in an uptrend with approximately the same high price level, signaling potential resistance and a reversal in market momentum. The first candlestick is typically bullish, followed by a bearish candlestick that signifies a struggle to maintain upward price movement. Identifying tweezer tops involves recognizing these two candlesticks at the peak of an uptrend where price levels meet resistance. This can be achieved easily using the best pattern recognition software, such as TrendSpider, which I have used for this extensive testing.

Interpreting Tweezer Tops

When traders identify a tweezer top, they interpret it as an early indication of a developing bearish trend. This pattern is considered one of the more reliable reversal patterns because it reflects a clear tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. If accompanied by other technical indicators, such as high trading volume on the second candlestick or converging moving averages, the interpretation of a bearish reversal becomes more robust.

Trading Strategies for Tweezer Tops

Theoretically, traders might consider taking a short position or exiting long positions upon identifying a tweezer top pattern to capitalize on the anticipated bearish reversal. Before executing trades, it is crucial to confirm the pattern with other technical analysis methods, such as support and resistance levels or trendline breaks. Risk management techniques, including setting stop-loss orders slightly above the tweezer top formation, help mitigate potential losses should the anticipated downtrend fail to materialize.

☆ Tweezer Top Candle Backtesting ☆

Using TrendSpider, I tested 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks over ten years. This amounted to 978 Tweezer Top trades and 296 years of data. The Tweezer Top candles must be fully formed to enter a trade, and the sell short signal must be executed on the next trading day’s open price. Each trade was closed at the open exactly ten days later.

Tweezer Top Candle Testing Methodology:

  • Pattern: Tweezer Top
  • 30 DJIA Stocks
  • Daily Chart
  • Strategy: Go Short
  • Test Period: 2014 to 2024
  • Go Short at the next open
  • Exit after 10 days
  • Pattern Recognition and Backtesting performed by TrendSpider.

☆ Backtesting the Tweezer Top Candle ☆

Using TrendSpider for trade identification and execution gives fast and precise results. To evaluate candlestick patterns and strategies independently, follow the instructions below and check out the screenshot for reference.

  1. Open TrendSpider.
  2. Buy Signal: Select Strategy Tester > Entry Condition > Add Parameter > Condition > Candlestick pattern > Tweezer Top > Evolved.
  3. Sell Signal:  Add # Candles Passed = 10.
  4. Select “Short Only” Strategy
  5. Click “RUN” to execute the backtest.
How to Backtest Tweezer Candle Patterns
How to Backtest Tweezer Candle Patterns

Try Strategy Development with TrendSpider

☆ Tweezer Top Backtesting Results ☆

My extensive testing shows that trading the Tweezer Top candle pattern is a losing strategy. Across 978 trades, the strategy generated 56% losing trades and a negative reward-risk ratio of 0.95. Profit expectancy was -0.13, meaning traders should avoid this pattern.

Tweezer Top Results
Data Analyzed (years) 296.8
# Trades 978
Wins 44%
Losses 56%
Max DD -33%
Max DD (Asset) -47%
Average Win 3%
Average Loss -3%
Average Return -1%
Rew/Risk Ratio 0.95
Profit Expectancy -0.13

Detailed  Tweezer Top Test Result Summary

The strategy was analyzed over 296.8 years, with 978 trades executed. The win rate for this strategy was 44%, while the losses accounted for 56% of the trades. The maximum drawdown (DD) observed was 33%. On average, the strategy yielded a 3% return for winning trades and a -3% return for losing trades.

Example Tweezer Top Test Screenshot

Tweezer Top Test Result for Walt Disney Company (Ticker:DIS)
Tweezer Top Test Result for Walt Disney Company (Ticker: DIS)

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The overall average return for this strategy was -1%. The reward-to-risk ratio (Rew/Risk Ratio) was calculated to be 0.95, indicating that the strategy’s potential reward was slightly lower than its risk. Lastly, the profit expectancy for this strategy was -0.13, suggesting that, on average, the strategy did not generate profitable results.

Tweezer Bottom Patterns

Tweezer bottom patterns are theoretically bullish reversal indicators that frequently signal the end of a downtrend and the potential onset of an upward trajectory.

Identification of Tweezer Bottoms

Tweezer bottoms are identified by a pair of candlesticks that typically have matching or nearly matching lower wicks. These patterns emerge when prices consecutively test a support level without a breakthrough, indicating strong buying interest. Following a downward trend, the first candlestick reflects continued selling, but the second indicates a shift with buyers driving the prices back up from the session’s lows.

Interpreting Tweezer Bottoms

A well-formed tweezer bottom is significant because it suggests a reversal from the prevailing bearish trend. If the second candle closes higher than the first, it reinforces the likelihood of a bullish reversal. Analysts often use other technical indicators, such as volume spikes or momentum oscillators, to confirm the pattern.

Trading Strategies for Tweezer Bottoms

Traders might consider entering a long position following the confirmation of a tweezer bottom pattern, especially if accompanied by increased trading volume or other bullish indicators. A common strategy includes setting a stop-loss just below the tweezer bottom’s low to minimize potential losses if the anticipated upward trend does not materialize.

☆ Tweezer Bottom Candle Backtesting ☆

Using TrendSpider, I tested 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks over ten years. This amounted to 914 Tweezer Bottom trades and 296 years of data. The Tweezer Bottom candles must be fully formed to enter a trade, and the buy signal must be executed on the next trading day’s open price. Each trade was closed at the open exactly ten days later.

Tweezer Bottom Candle Testing Methodology:

  • Pattern: Tweezer Bottom
  • 30 DJIA Stocks
  • Daily Chart
  • Strategy: Go Long
  • Test Period: 2014 to 2024
  • Go Long at the next open
  • Exit after 10 days
  • Pattern Recognition and Backtesting performed by TrendSpider.

☆ Backtesting the Tweezer Bottom Candle ☆

Using TrendSpider for trade identification and execution gives fast and precise results. To evaluate candlestick patterns and strategies independently, follow the instructions below.

  1. Open TrendSpider.
  2. Buy Signal: Select Strategy Tester > Entry Condition > Add Parameter > Condition > Candlestick pattern > Tweezer Bottom > Evolved.
  3. Sell Signal:  Add # Candles Passed = 10.
  4. Select “Long Only” Strategy
  5. Click “RUN” to execute the backtest.

☆ Tweezer Bottom Backtesting Results ☆

Based on thorough testing, it is evident that a Tweezer Bottom candle strategy is, at best, breakeven. Out of 914 trades, this strategy resulted in a 45% loss rate, with a reward-risk ratio standing at 1.2. Furthermore, the profit expectancy was notably low, measuring just 0.19. Considering these results, traders should avoid this particular pattern.

Tweezer Bottom Results
Data Analyzed (years) 296.8
Positions 914
Wins 55%
Losses 45%
Max DD -23%
Max DD (Asset) -47%
Average Win 3.71%
Average Loss -3.39%
Average Return 0.52%
Rew/Risk Ratio 1.20
Expectancy 0.19

Detailed  Tweezer Bottom Test Result Summary

The backtesting results for the Tweezer Bottom trading strategy indicate poor performance, resulting in almost zero profitability. Out of 914 trades analyzed over 296.8 years, this strategy yielded a loss rate of 45%. The maximum drawdown for this strategy was -23%, indicating significant losses. The reward-risk ratio stood at 1.2, and the profit expectancy was only 0.19. These results suggest that traders should avoid utilizing the Tweezer Bottom pattern as it does not yield favorable outcomes.

Tweezer Bottom Test Result for Apple Inc. (Ticker: AAPL)
Tweezer Bottom Test Result for Apple Inc. (Ticker: AAPL)

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Table: Tweezer Top & Bottom Candle Pattern Performance

The table below illustrates that the Tweezer Top and Bottom patterns are unreliable strategies that yield zero profitability and the same reliability as flipping a coin. The average winning trades are 49%, and the average win and loss are almost identical at 3.4%.

Tweezer Pattern Tests Tweezer Bottom Tweezer Top Totals
Data Analyzed (years) 296.8 296.8 593.6
Positions 914 978 1892
Wins 55% 44% 49%
Losses 45% 56% 51%
Max DD -23% -33% -28%
Max DD (Asset) -47% -47% -47%
Average Win 3.71% 2.97% 3.34%
Average Loss -3.39% -3.48% -3.44%
Average Return 0.52% -0.65% -0.07%
Rew/Risk Ratio 1.20 0.95 1.07
Expectancy 0.19 -0.13 0.03

Are Tweezer candle patterns profitable and reliable?

Based on our testing of 1,892 trades, the tweezer top and bottom patterns are highly unreliable and unprofitable. These patterns exhibit a reward-to-risk ratio of only 1.07, with 50% of trades resulting in losses. Relying on tweezers as a trading strategy yields poor results.

Is a Tweezer Pattern Accurate?

The tweezer candle is one of the least accurate patterns to trade. It results in 49% of trades winning and 51% losing. The average winning trade is 3.34%, and the losing trade is -3.44%. With a low reward/risk ratio of 1.07:1, it is not worth trading.

Can the Tweezer Candles be used for Buy and Sell Signals?

Our data shows that Tweezer candles should not be used for buy and sell signals. The Inverted Hammer or Bearish Marubozu are better alternatives with better reliability and profitability.

Technical Analysis and Tweezer Patterns

Technical analysis utilizes various tools and patterns to evaluate market movements and predict future price actions. Among these tools are the tweezer top and bottom patterns, but because they are non-predictive, it is best to use other tools to confirm buy and sell signals.

10 Best Candlestick Patterns Proven Successful & Reliable

Indicators and Oscillators

Indicators and oscillators are quintessential technical analysis tools employed to discern the momentum and potential changes within market trends. Tweezer top patterns often signal a reversal when they appear after an uptrend and are validated by accompanying indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Similarly, these oscillators signaling overextended conditions can confirm tweezer bottom patterns, which suggest a bullish turnaround following a downtrend.

10 Best Day Trading Indicators Proven with Researched Data

Volume Analysis and Tweezers

Volume is critical in confirming the bullish or bearish signals suggested by tweezer patterns. A tweezer bottom pattern is more convincing if increased buy volume implies growing interest and potential for price rise. Conversely, the bearish tweezer top is corroborated by sell volume, highlighting traders’ urgency to exit and potentially auguring a downward price movement.

Stock Volume Explained: Using 4 Top Volume Indicators

Risk Management in Trading Tweezer Patterns

Effective risk management is crucial to protecting capital and maximizing potential gains when trading Tweezer Top and Bottom patterns.

Setting Profit Targets

Traders should define clear profit targets to capitalize on the trend reversal indicated by Tweezer patterns. For a Tweezer Top, the target could be set above the opening price of the first candle, ensuring gains are locked in before a potential downtrend. Conversely, targets may be placed below the closing of the initial bullish candle for a Tweezer Bottom, capturing the upside before any new uptrend diminishes.

Using Stop-Loss Orders

Stop-loss orders are vital in the trader’s toolkit for mitigating losses during trend reversals. In the event of a Tweezer Top, the stop-loss can be placed just above the pattern’s high. For Tweezer Bottoms, it is prudent to position the stop-loss slightly below the low of the two-candle formation, preventing further losses if the expected upward trend fails to materialize.

Entry and Exit Points

When identifying entry points for a trade, one should look for precise patterns like the Tweezer Top and Bottom. For instance, an entry below the second candle of a Tweezer Top might indicate the beginning of a short position. Conversely, traders might interpret a Tweezer Bottom as an opportunity to enter a long position. Exit points should be determined by setting a stop loss, which limits potential losses if the market moves contrary to expectations. A common strategy is to place a stop loss just above the recent high in the case of shorting on a Tweezer Top or below the recent low for a long position after a Tweezer Bottom.

Avoiding False Signals

To enhance the reliability of their trading decisions, traders must be skilled in avoiding false signals. 50% of Tweezer patterns will lead to false signals; hence, confirmation with other tools, such as volume analysis and technical indicators, is essential. For a Tweezer Top, witnessing high trading volume on the second candle can reinforce the likelihood of a bearish reversal. Moreover, traders should look for longer wicks or shadows to filter out less significant candlestick formations, reducing the risk of misinterpreting market signals.

FAQ

How can I find tweezer candle patterns on charts?

You can easily automate candlestick pattern recognition using specialized software like TrendSpider or TradingView. These tools enable you to identify and analyze existing patterns and create custom patterns for automated trading and backtesting.

What is the best software for trading tweezer patterns?

TrendSpider is the ultimate software for trading candle patterns thanks to its robust point-and-click backtesting and exceptional pattern recognition capabilities. For those venturing into international markets, TradingView serves as an excellent alternative.

What implications does a tweezer bottom pattern have for traders?

The tweezer bottom theoretically indicates a bullish reversal possibility, but our real-world testing shows it is a poor pattern for trading and should be avoided.

What does a tweezer top pattern mean for traders?

The tweezer top theoretically indicates a bullish reversal possibility, but our real-world testing shows it is a loss-making pattern that traders should avoid.

Are tweezer candle patterns reliable?

No, our testing shows the tweezer top and bottom patterns are unreliable and yield no profitable outcomes. With a reward-to-risk ratio of only 1.07 and 50% of trades losing, tweezers are a poor strategy.

What are the common confirmations for a tweezer top reversal?

Common confirmations for a tweezer top include an increased trading volume on the day the pattern completes and subsequent bearish candlesticks. Traders often look for these to confirm the pattern’s validity before trading.

In what market conditions are tweezer patterns most reliable?

Our 593 years of data covering bull and bear markets shows Tweezer patterns are unreliable in all market conditions and should be avoided.

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OneClick Online Account Manager Manual

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OneClick Online Account Manager

The utility help you to :

  • Monitor status of all accounts on a private web page. Some information such as account connection status, account profit, DD, Balance, Equity, Margin Level, Number of positions and orders, Daily and Weekly profit/loss and also overall summation of all these parameters.
  • Close all orders and positions on a specific account or on all accounts by a simple click
  • Receive phone notifications, Emails, Telegram messages in case of account disconnection, terminal shot down, internet connection lost, ….
  • Receive notifications if your customized condition meets on DD, Profit, Equity, Margin level .
  • Receive notification of account properties at predetermined fixed time intervals.
  • More and more …

Download Links :

Detailed Manual

A. Adjusting Drawdown, Account Profit, Equity, Margin Level Settings

1. Select the parameter you want to adjust. It is possible to adjust different settings for each one. The DD parameter is explained below. Profit, Equity and margin level adjustment is the same as DD.

2. Enable or disable any condition you want. If you disable both, all notifications and messages from DD will be disabled.

3. Do you want to receive reminder notifications if defined conditions continue? Enable this option to receive messages if conditions meet for a long time.

For example, on the above image, if account DD>Y the first notification will be received. If DD remains above Y for more than Z minutes, a reminder notification will be received. If you disable the repeat option, once DD>Y a notification will be sent and you will not receive any notification if DD remains above Y. Once DD falls below Y and exceeds above Y again, a new notification will be received. (But the time interval of each notification can not be less than Z minutes)

4. These are data you want to receive on the notifications body.

5. How do you want to receive notifications?

  • Popup Alerts : Messages on a pop up window on your desktop terminal.
  • Phone Notification : Notifications to receive on your phone using MetaTrader phone app.
  • Email : Receive messages on your phone.
  • Telegram : Receive messages on your telegram app. Follow instructions of setting up telegram messaging on the below.

B. Adjusting Warnings/Notifications in case of disconnection with broker trade server

In this section, you can adjust settings of how to inform you if connection of the terminal is lost with the broker server. (same as 4 in the above image). Take note in this case the internet connection of PC or VPS is not lost and so the options of notifications/email/telegram can work correctly. Only the connection of the terminal with the broker trade server is lost.

1. Enable or disable this feature by this tick box. For example if the connection is lost for more than X seconds, the notification will be sent to inform you.

2. Feature to remind disconnection status every Y minutes. If the option is enabled, you will receive notification every Y minutes in case of continuous disconnection. If the option disabled, notification will be sent anytime the connection status changes from “Connected” to “No Connection”. (But the time interval of each notification can not be less than Y minutes)

3. Same as Section A.4 above.

C. Notifications in account properties at the fixed time intervals

1. The option to enable or disable this feature. If enabled, you will receive a notification/message every X minutes including your determined data on (2).

2. Same as section A.4.

3. Same as section A.5.

D. Web panel

Web Panel is a private web link to view, manage and monitor all of your accounts from a single web page on your PC or on your phone.

1. Enable or disable reporting this account properties on the web panel.

2. Enable or disable “Close All” commands from the web panel. If you disable this option, “Close All” command on the web panel will be ignored on this account.

3. This is a useful option to inform anytime the terminal is closed due to unknown reasons or the PC power lost or the internet connection lost. In this case, the terminal can not send phone notifications or email messages because the terminal is not running. So telegram messages will be sent from our servers to inform you about the status of the terminal. It is needed to enable reporting option (1). So if (1) disabled, this feature can not work.

4. Enable this option if you want to remind telegram messages every X minutes in case of terminal closed/lost connection.

The above is a sample of the accounts management panel on the PC and Phone.

5. This is a private link to access to your panel. The link is provided on the “Settings” tab. See section E below.

6. Account numbers (Login IDs) are reported on this column.

7. Account name. This is an optional name you can assign to each account on the “Settings” tab. See section E below.

8. Account Status :

  • Ready : Means the terminal is running and connection with the trade server4 persists.
  • Closed : Mean the terminal is not ready. Maybe the terminal is closed or not responding or the internet connection of the terminal is lost completely.
  • Offline : Means terminal is running but connection with the broker trader server is lost.

9. Account properties are reported there.

10. These buttons are used to close all open positions and orders on the account. The feature will work only if you enable “Allow Closing …” on the EA panel. (2) in the above image.

After clicking the button, a confirmation message will be shown . Such as below :

If you click on the “Close All” on the bottom (Summation row) You will be able to close all on all accounts by a simple  click. A confirmation message will be shown Such as below :

E. Setting up Telegram Messaging and Web Panel

 

1. This is an optional name you can assign to the account. The name will be displayed on notifications and on the web panel.

2. Input Telegram Bot Token here. (If you need help, visit How to Create Bot Token, Section 2 : What is Telegram Bot Token.)

3. These are steps to register telegram account :

After filling (2) with your own bot token, click “Register”. The EA will create a code for you. You have 120 seconds time to enter the code on the bot. To do this, for example if your created bot name is abcd_bot, on your telegram app search @abcd_bot and start a chat with the bot. Click Start and type the code and send. Then you will see the registration status on the EA panel.

4. This is your private web panel link. If you create and enter bot token on (2), the link will be created automatically. You can copy and paste the link on the explorer to access the panel. Make sure the copied text is correct because sometimes MetaTrader can not copy the text correctly.

5. These options are provided to copy settings from one terminal to another terminal easily. After setting up EA on one terminal,there is no need to repeat the above operations for another terminal. Use this feature to share settings with other terminals.

To copy setting between terminals on the same PC/VPS :

  • Write a name on the save text box and click save.
  • On the other terminals write the same name on the load text box and click load.

To copy setting between terminals on the different PC/VPS :

  • Write a name on the save text box and click save.
  • A file will be saved in the folder C:UsersYourUserNameAppDataRoamingMetaQuotesTerminalCommonFiles.
  • Copy the file and paste on the second PC/VPS to the same folder.
  • On the terminals of the second PC/VPS write the same name on the load text box and click load.

F. Simulate the panel as an APP on your phone :

For easy access on your phone, you can create a shortcut from the panel on your phone home screen. Visit below manuals :

How to create a shortcut for the web panel on Android home screen.

How to create a shortcut for the web panel on iPhone home screen.

G. Allowing EA to access to the Web Panel and Telegram

It is needed to allow EA to access to these links :

https://www.fxbesttools.com

https://api.telegram.org

Please open Tools/Options/Expert/Expert Advisors and click Allow WebRequest and add the above links to the list. Same as below image :

FAQ :

  • How fast is the update rate of data on the web panel?
    • The update rate is about every 10 seconds.
  • Is the update of Web Panel Automatic?
    • No. Needs to click refresh anytime you want to see new values.
  • How to remove the account from panel?
    • Uncheck the checkbox on the EA panel. (Section D.1)

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Need, Not Race – Fat Tail Daily

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What made Australia great was merit, and we must not lose our way with identity politics

In today’s Fat Tail Daily, The excesses of governments borrowing from the central banks and spending it to keep an illusion of a functioning economy have taken its toll on the people. In Australia, this is particularly challenging with unaffordable housing and inflation affecting living costs. As gold makes record highs, the most vulnerable Australians, being the Indigenous people, are likely to suffer even more. Today’s article comes from Dr Gary Johns of Close the Gap Research whose organisation seeks to provide tailored solutions to those most in need. Read on to find out more…

Since the last US Federal Reserve meeting last month, gold has gone on a tear.

Last Friday in US trade, it made yet another record as it closed near US$2,330 an ounce.

In Australian dollar terms, it was AU$3,560.

To put into context how quickly gold has increased in the past few years, let’s have a look at this chart:

For those who own gold, this is great news. Their wealth is rising.

However, only a small proportion of Australians own gold bullion. Those who do are unlikely to own enough to help them ride above the growing tide of inflation on our cost of living.

I’ve written in the past about how the excesses of governments borrowing from the central banks and spending lavishly to keep the illusion of a functioning economy.

All this makes it increasingly difficult for Australians (and people around the world for that matter) to make ends meet.

Moreover, governments have not only sought to find useful solutions to deal with such problems, they’ve often resorted to solutions that further divide society.

One example was last year’s ‘The Voice’ referendum. The Federal government, corporations and special interest groups spent over $400 million for the vote aimed at legally recognising the Australian Indigenous people as Australians.

On the surface it seemed fair. However, it was a divisive campaign and more than 60% of Australians voted no.

While all this was happening, I had highlighted how Australians would prefer solutions to combat rising living costs and housing affordability.

Australians most at risk – The Indigenous population

The rapidly rising price of gold is a clear example of the problems in the Australian economy…we could be heading toward crisis.

As I wrote in my recent updates, I was at The Triple Conference in Albury last month. There I met people who were genuinely concerned about where Australia is headed.

Many groups from different professions, communities and skill sets gathered to discuss their perspectives and potential solutions to tackle the many issues that our country faces.

One of them was the Honourable Dr Gary Johns, Chairman of ‘Close the Gap Research’, an organisation that seeks to serve the Australian Indigenous people. It comprises people who served on both sides of politics and other professionals with different skillsets.

To my understanding, the organisation works at the grassroots level seeking to meet the specific needs of communities and individuals.

Dr Johns is a former Australian Labor Party minister serving under the Keating government. He was also the MP of the Petrie electorate in suburban Brisbane.

Dr Johns is also the author of The Burden of Culture that discusses the history of the plight of the Australian Indigenous people. He highlights how some of the most vulnerable continue to suffer under current policies.

I’d like to invite Dr Johns to write to you about how we can play a more effective role to improve the welfare of Indigenous people.

This is particularly urgent as the global financial system is buckling under the pressure of debt and inflation, threatening our economy and plunging more Australians into financial danger.

Indigenous Australian’s are most at risk.

But keeping your own house in order, so to speak, places you in a much better position to help others.

I believe that owning gold is one of your best options to build a safety net against rising costs.

So without further ado, I hand it to Dr Johns…

Need, not race

‘Close the Gap Research understands that, somehow, the West has gotten into a real twist about identity, especially that of minorities.

‘Identity is being used to undermine equality and liberty in the name of justice for minorities.

‘Minority group identity is used as a weapon against the alleged privileges of the majority.

‘As a consequence, common humanity and individual freedoms are being undermined.

‘More insidiously, merit is being undermined. This, we believe, is bad for those Aborigines who are not doing well.

‘Much of the work on behalf of minorities, built on their group characteristics, comes after they have succeeded.

‘Liberalism was their friend. It may have taken longer than others, e.g. white working-class people, to succeed, but they got there or are well underway.

‘New tricks are not helping anyone except the elite of the said minority trying to capture more of the spoils.

‘For example, the University of Technology Sydney announced in 2018 that it intended to build a national First Nations College.

‘Fortunately, it has not progressed too far, with the 2018 announcement boasting that it would open in 2023 unfulfilled.

‘It is a pity that Monash University had no Working Class College when I attended in the 1970s.

‘Imagine how I could have avoided those middle-class private school elites by hanging around with people from my old suburb. Well, those that made it to university.

‘It is true that other identities, such as Catholics and Anglicans, built university colleges, but they mostly raised their own money and had a deep history of scholarship.

‘There are women’s colleges, but these, like single-sex schools, are fading, although there remain debatable reasons to keep the sexes apart during formative and sexually very active years.

‘The idea of the UTS college is to help “forge a more inclusive society”.

‘What, by separating one race from others?

‘Mind you, race is a bit of a stretch. The students who would likely attend would be from the suburbs and probably the children of intermarried parents; in other words, they are highly integrated – think Noel Pearson, Marcia Langton, Larissa Behrendt, etc.

‘Judging from the burgeoning faculty that claims Aboriginal heritage, the race race, for university, has been over for some time. Only slightly slower than for working class students.

‘Aboriginal and working-class students are not so successful as a group, but those who are bright can and do make it.
‘That is the point.

‘Others may not want to attend, preferring to follow in their parent’s footsteps, where TAFE beckons and practical skills less susceptible to identity politics are available.

‘Even a Labor Prime minister has woken up to free fees for TAFE.

‘The UTS college also boasts its purpose is “to remove the real and perceived barriers that prevent Indigenous participation in higher education and the broader economy.”

‘They made it to university on merit, didn’t they?

‘The rest is up to them, or should be, unless they are to be cossetted forever.

‘The fear of segregated colleges (UTS says they will allow some non-indigenous students) is that they discourage integration and shun inclusion.

‘According to Pluckrose’s Social Injustice, identity politics emerged in the 1960s within the broader manifestation of postmodernism.

‘Postmodernism emerged in academia as a philosophy that questioned everything. This postmodern philosophy is so sceptical that it does not believe in objective truth or knowledge.

‘Postmodernism believes everything, even knowledge, is corrupted by politics and political power. It opened the door to identity as a powerful tool to undermine common humanity, individual freedom, and merit.

‘A more prosaic explanation of identity politics is that of Mounk’s The Identity Trap. He explains that the Left was lured by collective action against the majority, where, despite the triumph of liberalism, minorities were marginalised.

‘The minorities only had to wait; liberalism was their saviour.

‘Actions such as a First Nations College come after the triumph of liberalism. It is an attempt by successful Aborigines to capture more power and glory undeservedly.

‘The antidote to the failures of postmodernism and identity politics is, of course, liberalism.

‘Pluckrose appeals to secularism’s principle: “In a secular society, no one should be punished for rejecting religion or any other ideology.”

‘In other words, stop cancel culture behaviour.

‘The former President of Harvard University, Professor Gay, resigned because she was the culmination of cancel culture. When pressed by a Congressional committee on virulent anti-Israel protests on her campus, she defended the cancel mob.

‘Simple direct questions from a single Republican representative outed her.

‘Mounk recommends that leaders cultivate a spirit of tolerance of ideas; for example, when racist accusations are made, he recommends not disciplining anyone until the facts are clear.

‘That seems obvious, but the rush to judgment fuels the fire.

‘Let the heat die and ensure proper processes to hear matters in the cool light of day.

‘Don’t let craven editors and the X (Twitter) mob be the judge.

‘Gay was forced out not because she wanted to let things settle before acting against anti-Semitic hate speech but because she was in a vanguard that selected students on race and brooked no demur from those in the hate speech camp.

‘Essentially, there are no ‘identity’ ideas, just ideas.

‘Joining in this crusade for liberalism, our group, Close the Gap Research, is working to uncover one of the engine rooms of the identity industry as it materialises in Aboriginal politics. We have reviewed the qualifications of professors who claim Aboriginal heritage and found many wanting. We are also analysing Reconciliation Action Plans where organisations profess to do good but often reinforce separate identities and undervalue the contribution of people as employees: workers.

‘Close the Gap Research is doing its best to help those in need to obtain the tools that will give them their best chance to succeed.’

To close, I hope that you’re preparing for the economic fallout from our failing financial system.

Moreover, as you position yourself and your family from the ravages of this impending disaster, spare a thought for those most vulnerable.

There are organisations and people out there working to help those in need. But it’s most important that you distinguish those that work and those that work against them.

I believe that ‘Close the Gap Research’ is one organisation you can stand behind. You can find out more on their website.

That’s it from me for this week. Stay well!

God bless,

Brian Chu Signature

Brian Chu,
Editor, Gold Stock Pro and The Australian Gold Report

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Vantagepoint AI Market Outlook for April 8, 2024

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Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex trading.

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Okay, hello everyone, and welcome back. My name is Greg Firman, and this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of April the 8th, 2024.

U.S. Dollar Index

Now, to get started this week, we’ll begin with the Dollar Index. Now, the Dollar has recovered to some degree, but we are starting a new quarter. We want to make sure we’re watching that quarterly opening price very, very closely, 104.49. Again, we need to get back up above that for the Dollar to remain strong. Now, the indicators here are very mixed. We do have a medium-term crossover to the downside, the long-term predicted difference is pointing down, but the position of the predicted RSI is basically bouncing off the 40 level, so it’s not showing a lot of immediate downside pressure. But, I will say, the unemployment data out of the US is highly questionable. Again, the U6 number moving higher, there’s a number of components, the number of government jobs, so questionable how strong that labor report really is. But for now, we can see we do have some strength, but I would be very cautious around Tuesday, Wednesday of next week because, in most cases, the Dollar sells off the week after the non-farm payroll number, regardless of what that number is.

S&P 500 Index

Now, when we look at stocks, we can see our new quarterly opening price that’s going to come in at 5257. For stocks to remain bullish, we have to get back up above this level to maintain this upside momentum. The indicators here are mixed, but there is some sign of life here in the stock market that the rally is not over yet. Watch for a push to the downside on Sunday and early Monday, and a reversal back to the upside on potentially Tuesday or Wednesday. But these levels are well defined: our T Cross Long 5198, we must stay above that to keep the pressure on the upside, and inevitably, we need to break above 5257 to confirm that there’s further upside in the stock market.

DAX

Now, if we look at the European Equity markets, once again, we can see here, excuse me, let’s just remove that, once again following the S&P 500, the new quarterly opening price on the DAX is coming in at 18,492.36. So, we’ve got to get back up above this level. I don’t think we’re going to get above it immediately, but for now, our T Cross Long 18,1125, indicators are definitely bearish. Now, this one looks like we’ve got momentum building to the downside. This would indirectly point towards the potential for Euro strength because, in most cases, either the country’s stock market is strong or their currency is strong. So, this tells me that again, the Euro, the Dollar is nowhere near as strong as what it appears to be, and the Euro could be getting ready for a rally.

Gold

Now, gold prices, again, making all-time new highs here, but the further up we move, the more likely it is going to be for a retracement. The retracement point here, the T Cross Long 2221, is our T Cross Long, and 2233 our quarterly opening price. These are critical support levels for gold. But ultimately, probably by the end of April, gold will start pushing lower as we come out of this seasonal pattern. But again, we’ll monitor things from a week-to-week basis. There are signs of weakness on the predicted differences.

But in most cases, gold is strong in the month of April, and this continues to point to further strength, but it’s still interest rate based. The market believes that the Fed is going to cut, but the Fed is not really saying that, so we want to be cautious with longs up here because it could be short-lived. Because in most cases, gold basically caps at the end of April, mid-May. So again, I would be very, very cautious with longs up at this particular level.

Light Sweet Crude Oil

Now, light sweet crude oil, starting off the second quarter here, pretty bullish. We’re above our T Cross Long, but the T Cross Long is intersecting with the quarterly opening price at 83.14, so that’s our retracement point. Not Fibonacci or bands or channels, we’re looking at hard anchor points that we can see that are more objective than subjective. So, the T Cross Long, all our support is sitting there. A premium long would be down around that area. We’ve got a bit of a gap to fill, in my respectful opinion. If we click on our Vantage Point Long Predicted, then we can get an additional support level, and that would be coming in at 85.53.

Bitcoin

Now, when we look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin starting to recover yet again. We have a newly formed verified support low 64,644. That will be our immediate support, but as you can see, it’s blocked from moving higher because of the Vantage Point T Cross Long that’s coming in at 67,838. That’s the level we want to overtake, but I think it’s going to take a little bit of time here. I don’t think we’re going to see a massive selloff in Bitcoin, but we are likely to see some downside pressure until we get ready for the next leg up. But towards month-end, I anticipate Bitcoin will push through these resistance areas and start to move towards that 80,000-90,000 mark. But again, things can change very quickly in these markets, but if we’re going to get that kind of move in Bitcoin, we’re probably a few weeks away from it just yet.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

Now, when we look at the VIX, going into next week, the VIX is showing signs of life here. And once again, this was inevitable, in my respectful opinion, but the question is, can it maintain? Can the equities remain soft? So, the VIX, we’ve pushed through the yearly opening price, the quarterly opening price, this VIX is actually quite bullish. Our T Cross Long is now coming in at 15.13, that would be our buy area. But once again, be careful, we’re at 86.2 on the predicted RSI. That’s not overly concerning. What is concerning is this verified resistance high at 16.25 and this massive somewhat of a double top up here at $16.99. But right now, I think it’s inevitable that we’re going to hit that particular level, and it could be as early as Monday, Tuesday. So once again, the indicators do remain bullish here, but be cautious again, because I think the market may be misinterpreting some of the key components in that labor report, more specifically, that U6 number continues to be concerning because it’s not consistent with the U3 number or a number of other components inside that jobs report.

Euro versus U.S. Dollar

Now, as we go into some of our Forex pairs for next week, most eyes are going to be on Euro/USD. That’s your big pair. So, the Euro is starting the quarter off bullish. That quarterly opening price, that’s going to be at 1.0793. That’s our support. Then we’ve got our T Cross Long 1.0825. The indicators here are turning bullish, but you can see the predicted RSI using a 60/40 split, meaning that if we’ve got momentum, then it would look something like this over here. We fail at the 50 level, we break the 60, we’re above our T Cross Long, and at that time, also above the current monthly opening price, and we saw price accelerate to the upside. So, we’re in a very similar looking situation right now. Any losses the Euro/USD recover on Friday, so watch for a big push to the downside on Monday, and a recovery on Tuesday or Wednesday. But we must stay above 1.0793. We don’t want to be closing below that level more than two days in a row, or we’ve got a problem with longs.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc

Now, USD/CHF, once again, a mixed bag here. Our new quarterly opening on this one will come in at 0.9021. That’s the area to keep your eyes on, guys. And if we lose our T Cross Long at 0.8977, we’ll confirm the Dollar weakness that we’re looking for in this particular calendar month and into May. So again, watch your main support level. A breakdown and close below 0.8977, we should see some further downside. But the indicators are sideways right now. So again, be cautious with this one. But again, it is going to come down to what the next move on the Dollar Index is. Can the Dollar Index break above the level discussed, around that 1.0450? If it can, then USD/CHF will likely move higher, but my optimism remains guarded because, again, I’m not convinced that labor report is as strong as what they’re suggesting.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar

Now, the GBP/USD, once again, our new quarterly opening price 1.2631. I can’t stress enough how important this level is in the start of the second quarter because a Trend is going to develop here, guys. So, we leverage the position of the market in relationship to the quarterly opening. Above it, long; below it, short. So, we’re looking for a consistent close above 1.2631 so we can target 1.2732, which ultimately, I believe, we can break above. But that’s also going to depend on the Bank of England because they’re starting to get a little dovish again. So, we’ll monitor these things, but right now, we do have a short- and medium-term crossover to the upside. We’re just lacking momentum. So, we’re going to be looking for a Trgger point. I’m more than confident that’s going to come from some Fed statement. The problem is, it could send it higher or lower, so be cautious in the next whenever the Fed is speaking over the coming days and weeks.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen

Now, as we look at the USD/JPY, The USD/JPY remains on everybody’s radar, but again, I’m not personally a buyer up here because I believe the Bank of Japan is going to pull something sooner rather than later. So, our quarterly opening here, 151.32, we need to hold above this if we’re going to remain bullish on this particular pair. But I see very limited upside here because I anticipate some kind of intervention from the Bank of Japan. The indicators are very mixed; you can see we can’t quite get a crossover in the medium term. We’re lacking downside momentum. So, once again, we’ll monitor this, but the two main levels are again our T Cross Long at 159.0 and our quarterly opening at 151.32.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar

Now, the USD/CAD, another miserable jobs number out of there on Friday out of Canada. Canada, I think, is more likely than not to move into a recession. Carbon tax taking hold; that’s the real inflation in Canada is the carbon tax. So again, are they going to put a pause on it? Probably not. This is going to cause problems for the potentially for the Canadian dollar, in my respectful opinion. But right now, the indicators are bullish, but don’t forget, guys, in most cases, the dollar, the Dollar, is weak right after the non-farm payroll by the Tuesday or the Wednesday. So, this could reverse quickly, and what I was looking for on Friday was a close above the 1.364 high, these verified zones up here, and I didn’t get it. We got a push above it and then closed below it, so a false break above there. If we can’t get above that, guys, we are going to rechallenge the current quarterly opening 1.3545 is inevitable next week. Can we break down below the T Cross Long at 1.3549? If we do, then that will open the door to likely a very quick move down to 1.3456 where we can then reassess. But again, I will be watching this one very closely. The indicators are mildly bullish here, but again, not able to break above and stay above 1.36. Until this pair can do that, there is a slight downward bias.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

Now, when we look at the AUD/USD and NZD/USD, one could argue there is fantastic value down here, but we’re still very negative on the year. We’ve never actually been positive on this pair or on NZD/USD this entire calendar year. 0.6812 is our yearly opening price. Right now, we’re positioning nicely above the current quarterly opening; we’re above our T Cross Long coming in at 0.6549, so we want to look at this very closely. And sometimes, going back a year can actually show us a lot. We can see that we didn’t really have any significant rally. We did have a significant rally, I would argue, at the end of April here last year, and then we had it again at the beginning of June. But we’re making a series of lower highs. I’m not overly concerned; ultimately, I believe it’s the Dollar that will fall against the AUD. We just have to be patient; we’re probably a little bit away from that, but right now, it is setting up for a long.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar

NZD/USD, you can see the same thing here, we’re holding above our quarterly opening, but the structural bias of this market, we’re below our T Cross Long. When we look at the AUD pair, we’re above it. So, if we cross-reference this to something like AUD/NZD, then we want to understand where the how can the AUD be strong and the NZD is not, and this is your answer over here, guys. The AUD/NZD pair, above the current yearly opening price, above our T Cross Long, and above our quarterly opening. All of these, you can see, we’re basically running right along the current quarterly opening. As I advise every week, we don’t want to be moving these anchor points to a random the last random 30 days, the last random five days. We want the current weekly opening, the current monthly, the current quarterly, and the current yearly opening price. We don’t want to move the anchor points because if we do, we’re moving them all year long. We need objective anchor points that we can trade from. So, this explains the strength in AUD/NZD; they have to buy AUD/USD and sell NZD/USD to buy AUD/NZD. It helps explain where maybe this is a better place to be than AUD/USD or NZD/USD, but my bias here would be to buy AUD/NZD and buy AUD/USD. From a hypothetical standpoint, that trade would make absolute sense.

So, with that said, this is the Vantage Point AI Market Outlook for the week of April the 8th, 2024.



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